Orwell on Webster Street*

In Madison, WI, that is.

In response to my post on the effort to eliminate the Bureau of Science Services in the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, reader Ed Hanson rises to the defense of the effort.

How about some real information. What is the annual budget of the Bureau of Science Services? Without some actual numbers the debate is just a philosophical debate.

Apparently he didn’t read the news articles that were hyperlinked to in the blogpost. From the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

The employees include scientists and others with master’s and doctoral degrees who perform research for the DNR on environmental regulation and wildlife management policy.

Walker’s budget would cut 18.4 positions in the Bureau of Scientific Services.

The bureau has a total of 59.4 budgeted positions, although 9.4 are currently vacant. That would a 31% cut in total budgeted positions and a reduction of nearly 20% of the positions now filled in the bureau.

All told, Walker’s budget would cut 66 positions from the DNR. Of this, more than 25% would come from the science group.

Here are some time series for the Enforcement and Science function within the DNR, expressed in FY2014 real dollars (CPI deflated).

dnr_sci_1

Figure 1: Real spending on “Enforcement and science” (blue) and proposed spending on “Public safety and business support” (red), in millions of FY2014 dollars (deflated using CPI-all), by fiscal year. Out year CPI derived from CBO. Source: Governor’s budget proposal (2015), CBO, Budget and Economic Outlook (January 2015), and author’s calculations.

The astute reader will notice that it’s not really possible from the Governor’s budget proposal to read out separately the science component, and more interestingly a re-organization proposed by the Governor makes even more difficult tracking the aggregate “enforcement and safety” function. A new function, the “Public safety and business support”, is proposed. (I’m sure there are some budget experts that know the exact breakdown over time, but I don’t have the expertise to track them down on demand from Ed Hanson.).

However, one can guess what the trend is from what has happened over the time Governor Walker has been in office. The share of enforcement and science expenditures in overall DNR over the FY2012-15 period is shown in Figure 2.

dnr_sci_2

Figure 2: Share of spending on “Enforcement and science” (blue) in total DNR spending, by fiscal year. Source: Governor’s budget proposal (2015) and author’s calculations.

In just four years, the enforcement and science share has fallen from 9.7% to 7.1%.

Regarding the re-organization, the relevant statement is here (page 399)

The Governor recommends amending statutory language to reflect the new responsibilities of the Public Safety and Business Support Program, which consists of the department’s law enforcement, science, and office of business support and sustainability functions.

Hence, it’s not possible to make comparisons of spending on comparable enforcement/science activities pre- vs. post-FY2015.

Ed Hanson ends:

I suspect that in a varied and rich state such as Wisconsin, any necessary product coming from this Bureau can and would be created from other sources.

This is a remarkable statement. I’ll just call it the “spontaneous generation” theory of knowledge generation…and I understand why Ed Hanson would adhere to such a view!

* Location of Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. Original title, “Orwell on East Wilson Street” referred to street location of Department of Administration. Since the proposal is being pushed by DNR administrators, the new title seems more appropriate.

28 thoughts on “Orwell on Webster Street*

  1. Patrick R. Sullivan

    ‘ I’ll just call it the “spontaneous generation” theory of knowledge generation’

    Or, The Use of Knowledge in Society. Which won a Nobel prize for its author.

    1. Menzie Chinn Post author

      Patrick R. Sullivan: I think you generalize “knowledge” in a way Hayek did not mean to basic science research (i.e., I don’t think he had Galileo in mind).

      But I am not surprised that you would mis-interpret literature as you do date. To wit, I am still waiting to hear you admit you were in error regarding depth of the downturn in Canada vs. US during the Great Depression. As you recall, you stated unequivocally:

      Canada … had a less severe depression than the USA.

      And this statement is wrong.

      1. Patrick R. Sullivan

        So, you think Galileo was the creature of science bureaucracy. Again, I’m not surprised at such ignorance. And I’m sure Hayek was aware that Galileo was a ‘from the ground up guy’ who supported himself (and his idiosyncratic experiments) in part as an entrepreneur–he sold his telescopes to Venetian shippers.

        Have you managed to find even one post that demonstrates your knowledge of the problems of restaurant owners, Menzie?

        All the posts I see amply demonstrate your concerns about the welfare of Wisconsin government workers.

        1. Menzie Chinn Post author

          Patrick R. Sullivan: No, Galileo is an instance where the market doesn’t solve everything. If you want a list of peer-reviewed studies (as opposed to anecdotes) on how market economies under-produce basic science, I’ll work one up for you.

          I’ll get it to you right after you admit you were in error regarding depth of the downturn in Canada vs. US during the Great Depression. As you recall, you stated unequivocally:

          Canada … had a less severe depression than the USA.

          And this statement is wrong.

          Now, write a post on problems of restaurant owners? Why? They’re plenty well protected by restaurant owner associations, and the NFIB, and don’t need me for protection. Maybe I should also right up a post on the plight of Pacific Research Institute, who need intellectual protection…from themselves. No, I think they have plenty of money to defend themselves…

          1. Patrick R. Sullivan

            ‘Now, write a post on problems of restaurant owners?’

            Oh, so your awareness of the problems wasn’t sufficient to induce you to actually write about them. As I thought.

            ‘ Why? They’re plenty well protected by restaurant owner associations, and the NFIB, and don’t need me for protection.’

            It isn’t about protection. You’re supposed to be a scholar. You know, those guys who disinterestedly seek the truth…or, at least, a little light on the subject.

            But, I can’t think of any reaction that could have shed more light on your philosophy, Horatio, than thinking the tiny Pho soup Vietnamese refugees are protected by restaurant associations and NFIB. The graduates from UW with econ degrees are really going to be prepared to enter the grown up world. Yessirree!

          2. Menzie Chinn Post author

            Patrick R. Sullivan: I write about many things, but I don’t see why my research agenda should be driven by your views of the world (now that’s a scary thought!). After all, given your estrangement from fact, why should I think your assessment of what is of importance should have any weight? (I’m sure you think the Heritage Foundation is an oppressed minority!)

            Indeed, I am still waiting to hear you admit you were in error regarding depth of the downturn in Canada vs. US during the Great Depression. As you recall, you stated unequivocally:

            Canada … had a less severe depression than the USA.

            And this statement is wrong.

        2. The Peoples Pawn

          Hi, Patrick.

          Not to be rude, but based on the biographical material I’ve been able to find, Hayek spent nearly all his working years as a government employee or public university professor. Galileo was a professor in Piza. Newton also served as a professor before going to work in the King’s treasury. Einstein developed his theoretical work while working as a patent clerk. Von Mises was also a government employee and public university professor. Da Vinci was employed by various dukes throughout Italy and France.

          May I modestly propose that strong ideas and research are worth the modest degree of public support they receive?

          Privately employed folks have great ideas to share as well, as any trip to the bookstore can demonstrate. I can think of two privately employed writer/publisher/businessmen who sgared a number of important ideas–Ben Franklin and Karl Marx. Though Ben Franklin was also a government employee for a couple decades himself.

          1. Menzie Chinn Post author

            Patrick R. Sullivan: Speaking of confused, I am still waiting to hear you admit you were in error regarding depth of the downturn in Canada vs. US during the Great Depression. As you recall, you stated unequivocally:

            Canada … had a less severe depression than the USA.

            And this statement is wrong.

        3. baffling

          patrick, galileo was on the other hand a scientist whose career was subverted (and silenced) because he provided scientific evidence which disagreed with the ideology of the current leadership.

          1. Patrick R. Sullivan

            Put your thinking cap on, baffling, and ponder the implications of what you just wrote.

          2. Menzie Chinn Post author

            Patrick R. Sullivan: While you are admonishing others, have you pondered your previous unadmitted error? I am still waiting to hear you admit you were in error regarding depth of the downturn in Canada vs. US during the Great Depression. As you recall, you stated unequivocally:

            Canada … had a less severe depression than the USA.

            And this statement is wrong.

          3. baffling

            patrick, “Put your thinking cap on, baffling, and ponder the implications of what you just wrote.”

            you don’t think the actions taken by the governor against the DNR constitute a censoring of “climate change”? his issue was not with scientific research done off topic, it was with this particular topic. disagreement with the current leadership ideology. the implications of what i wrote should be crystal clear to a rational mind.

      2. Ricardo

        Menzie,

        You did not respond to my question concerning your proposal that 100% of Americans (and I assume illegal immigrants) all be on the food stamp program. How is it coming? Another question: would you pay farmers for any food they eat that is their own products? That would only seem fair since you are giving their food away to those who do not grow it.

  2. Patrick R. Sullivan

    In addition to Ed Hanson having scholarly support from Hayek, he has quite a bit from William Niskanen and James Buchanan (Leviathan Hypothesis) too.

    Why am I not surprised that Menzie is apparently unaware of this rich literature.

    1. Menzie Chinn Post author

      Patrick R. Sullivan: I’ve known about Niskanen, Buchanan, and the public choice theory group for a long, long time (at least 30 years). Have you ever wondered why the public choice group has faded from the scene — it’s because the profession has moved far beyond that monothematic approach.

      I am still waiting to hear you admit you were in error regarding depth of the downturn in Canada vs. US during the Great Depression. As you recall, you stated unequivocally:

      Canada … had a less severe depression than the USA.

      And this statement is wrong.

      1. Rick Stryker

        Menzie,

        I guess no one told you the sad news, but the reason the Public Choice group–Buchanan, Niskanen, and Tullock, has faded from the scene is that they are all, ugh, … deceased

        1. Menzie Chinn Post author

          Rick Stryker: I know that they have passed, but the school’s influence faded before the individuals’ physical demise. Their bastion at VPI was no more even when I was reading their papers back in the mid-1980’s.

          On a separate note, I will say I admire Niskanen’s spirited defense of the independence and worth of the CEA during his tenure as Chair.

          1. Rick Stryker

            Menzie,

            I wouldn’t say their influence has faded. It may seem that way today since back in the 80s, in the middle of the conservative renaissance, the seminal figures in public choice were much discussed and celebrated. Now, interest in public choice is more normal. As of 10 years ago, Dennis Mueller surveyed the massive literature on this topic and I think the literature has continued to grow over the last decade.

        1. Menzie Chinn Post author

          Patrick R. Sullivan: Yes, tremendous influence, given name is in ALL CAPS!

          I am still waiting to hear you admit you were in error regarding depth of the downturn in Canada vs. US during the Great Depression. As you recall, you stated unequivocally:

          Canada … had a less severe depression than the USA.

          And this statement is wrong.

          1. Patrick R. Sullivan

            Does seem to have had some influence in Wisconsin, doesn’t it? I mean, what with Scott Walker’s three election wins.

          2. Menzie Chinn Post author

            Patrick R. Sullivan: MacIver more so I think.

            I am still waiting to hear you admit you were in error regarding depth of the downturn in Canada vs. US during the Great Depression. As you recall, you stated unequivocally:

            Canada … had a less severe depression than the USA.

            And this statement is wrong.

      2. Ricardo

        Menzie,

        You still did not respond to my question about your 100% food stamp program? How is it coming? You getting a lot of people to sign up?

  3. Rick Stryker

    For 2016, they are cutting 20.5 million from DNR’s current budget of 575 million. The reduction of 66 jobs in total across DNR corresponds to a savings of about 5 million, which is 76K per job. Cutting 18 positions from the Bureau of Science Research therefore implies a savings of $1.37 million, a relatively small number when you consider the total size of the budget. Obviously, it shouldn’t be too difficult to find this sort of cut elsewhere. It seems to me a potentially fruitful strategy for BSS would be to demonstrate that the state is getting more than $1.37 million in value from the 18 positions. I can’t imagine that all this talk about war on science is helping their case.

  4. Ed Hanson

    It is interesting that when the voting public demands less government spending and less government taxation, the special interest double down on their effort to keep their particular government entities from the reductions. Too bad. The Wisconsin voters have affirmed and reaffirmed their desire to make government smaller, and that means programs and government jobs will be eliminated. I am glad that the Governor and Legislature are taking the will of the voters seriously. I only wish such was true here in Colorado.

    I have commented on this before, and probably will again, one of the best part of Menzie’s blogs is that mind reading is acceptable, and encouraged.

    From Menzie’s post; “I suspect that in a varied and rich state such as Wisconsin, any necessary product coming from this Bureau can and would be created from other sources.
    This is a remarkable statement. I’ll just call it the “spontaneous generation” theory of knowledge generation…and I understand why Ed Hanson would adhere to such a view!”

    Wow even an exclamation point, I am honored. And will return the favor.

    I understand why Menzie would adhere to the view that it is necessary that all control, regulation, and resources should be directed through the mechanism of government! I will call it the “socialist theory of utopian vision.”

    Ed

  5. Barkley Rosser

    Regarding the original issue, where clearly Walker is again being appalling while trying to get the GOP nomination for prez, I shall note that I was fora few years an employeed of the Wisconsin DNR 50 years ago. Even then it was attacked by Posse Comitatus types who argued that the county was the highest legitimate form of government and woule make citizans’ arrests of DNR officials attempting enforce fishing and pollution regs on northern lakes.

    The DNR has been the source of substantial policy innovations. Two that I was involved with to varying degrees back then were the first government-run tradeable permits system in the world (now called “cap and trade”) for BOD emissions on the Fox River in northeastern Wisconsin, where lots came from the lumber mills and there was a desire to minimize the employment impact of enforcing tightened rules, and also a formula for distributing funds for municipal sewage treatment plants that took into account income and wealth levels of the communities involved.

    I am sorry it is again a punching bag for such blatantly political nonsense.

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