DWD reports on April figures. This allows for the following picture of Wisconsin macro aggregates.
Figure 1: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (dark blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark measure of NFP (pink), Civilian Employment (tan), real wages and salaries linearly interpolated, deflated by national chained CPI (sky blue), GDP (red), coincident index (green), all in logs 2021M11=0. Source: BLS, BEA, Philadelphia Fed [1], [2], and author’s calculations.
The unemployment rate actually fell from 3.0% to 2.9%, while the estimated labor force rose (keeping in mind the issues associated with the state level household survey based series).
Employment is currently outstripping the (upwardly revised) February Economic Outlook forecast.
Figure 2: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (bold black), Nov. ’23 Wisconsin Economic Outlook forecast (light green), Feb ’24 (light blue), in 000’s, s.a. Source: DWD, DoRWisconsin Economic Outlook (various issues).
Given the fairly strong employment growth, it’s surprising that perceptions of economic conditions in Wisconsin are so bleak (even as perceptions of individual financial conditions are pretty sanguine).
I really thought you guys were going to slamdunk it, what with Walker’s Foxconn deal and the multiplier effect and whatnot. ‘Cuz Scott Walker was uuuuuh, like, a genius….. and stuff yeah??
https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/business/2023/11/10/what-happened-to-foxconn-in-wisconsin-a-timeline/71535498007/
“Under Democrat Gov. Tony Evers, the incentive package was changed to reflect the reduced size of the company’s plans. It’s been estimated that more than a billion dollars of taxpayer money has gone toward supporting the deal but in 2021, the Wisconsin Economic Development Corp. approved a much smaller package, which included:
The tax credits went down from $2.85 billion to $80 million.
The job goal number came down from 13,000 statewide to 1,454.
The capital investment has also gone down from $10 billion to $672.8 million. “
https://images.app.goo.gl/MGdUqLS1ZZrBkz53A
It looks like Scott Walker and donald trump did “assume the position”. Stormy must have pushed down on the back of trump’s neck with her left hand and a phalanx like object in the other hand so he’d be prepped for this Foxconn shaft.
Hi Menzie – I travel around Wisconsin for my day job – I have read some pundits and others on perceptions about the economy being based on partisan politics – but from talking to people in many different locations in Wisconsin – I think it is more about location – rural/urban or even just where you are born and if you never move more than 40 miles of your birthplace – what is interesting to me is that the political leaders in rural areas defund healthcare, public education, and local services leading to worse documented outcomes – in health and education etc. But keep their constituents lonely, fearful, and greedy (as one of my friends says) enough to keep voting for them. A recent book documents this – https://www.washingtonpost.com/books/2024/03/07/white-rural-rage-schaller-waldman-reivew/ (although it seems that book got a lot of the usual pushback as an “attack on the hardworking rural white Americans!” – while the authors clearly explain that it is not https://newrepublic.com/article/180570/trump-rural-white-resentment-honest-assessment )
It is the bait-and-switch that the Republicans have been playing with voters for a long time (since Goldwater) – be fearful of the other! (most often people with darker skin but also those of different religions, cultures, different ways of thinking) – while we cut taxes for our donors and defund the social safety net and worker protections and environmental protections.
Meanwhile the Biden admin continues to provide aid and do responsible governance – https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/aid-trucks-begin-moving-ashore-via-gaza-pier-us-says-2024-05-17/