From Kalshi, 7:45pm CT:

The fact that the odds keep on jumping up and down is befuddling. It is clear tht Iran “holds the cards” (to use a Trumpism), and Trump himself is incapable of admitting he has put himself (or more precisely, the US) in a situation that is unambiguously worse than the staus quo ante (i.e., open navigation of the Strait, Brent at $70/bbl, and a much larger stock of PGMs and interceptors). Hence, my prediction for April 2027.