Pawel Skrzypczinski admonishes us, and correctly so. Computer, peripheral and part imports surging for now. In 2000, imports peaked a quarter efore investment did.

Figure 1: Imports of computers, peripherals and parts (blue), and lagged 26 years (red), in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR, on log scale. Source: BEA, 2026Q1 3rd release.

Looking to disaggregated trade data, computers, semicoductors, telecom equipment, electric apparatus, computer accessories, we see no slowdown so far; YTD April 2026 is up 59% relative to previous.

Figure 2: Computer, computer accessories, semiconductor chips, telecommunication equipment, electric apparatus imports, in mn$, April year-to-date. Source: BEA.