Pawel Skrzypczinski admonishes us, and correctly so. Computer, peripheral and part imports surging for now. In 2000, imports peaked a quarter efore investment did.

Figure 1: Imports of computers, peripherals and parts (blue), and lagged 26 years (red), in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR, on log scale. Source: BEA, 2026Q1 3rd release.