Back at the end of 2024, EJ Antoni was citing the Primerica Household Budget Index as indicator of consumer conditions.

A recent study by a major American bank showed over a quarter of middle-income earners are living paycheck to paycheck, even those making over $150k/yr. As households shift to just buying necessities, those prices are more significant, and they’re rising faster than overall inflation – the annualized increase in housing costs is almost twice the “official” inflation rate. The Household Budget Index, which only looks at essential consumer purchases, shows the middle class is way below its pre-pandemic growth trend in purchasing power: @Primerica