The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 0.6% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2007, a weaker report than many of us had been expecting.
Yearly Archives: 2008
IMF Cuts Growth Forecasts
Decoupling seems ever more unlikely…
How Much Stimulus? Dollar Amounts versus Efficacy
The stimulus package seems near a done deal, and the critiques are abounding — as they should be. Greg Mankiw says no fiscal stimulus package is necessary, given the current state of the economy. Andrew Samwick says implementing a stimulus package ill conceived given that excessive deficits are what got us into this mess (a view I have some sympathy with). Jim Hamilton argues that a properly constructed fiscal stimulus is unlikely to be implemented in time, and may additionally further erode the dollar’s role as a safe haven. Paul Krugman argues that the structure of the package leaves much to be desired.
Betting on recession
There was also some interesting action on the Intrade betting exchange this week.
Another day, another dollar
It was a fun day to be a macroeconomist, don’t you think?
The Fed makes its move
The Federal Reserve announced today it was lowering its target for the fed funds rate 75 basis points, from its previous value of 4.25% to a new value of 3.5%.
Why One Percent of GDP? Opportunity Cost Illustrated (Part III)
As the decoupling thesis becomes more and more tenuous [1], and the rest of the world exhibits greater evidence of a slowdown [2], [3], [4], leading to predictions of a more persistent and deeper slump in the US than previously anticipated [5], I wonder — where did that presciption of a one percentage point of GDP fiscal stimulus come from?
More Thoughts on Fiscal Stimulus: Business Incentives
What does the literature say about the efficacy of incentives for investment?
The case against fiscal stimulus
Everybody else seemed to hear Bernanke say he was in favor of fiscal stimulus as one approach to our economic problems. But I instead heard him articulate very intelligently the potential pitfalls of the strategy.
More Things I Learned at ASSA: Inflation and Labor Cost Measures
One of the AEA sessions I attended (at least in part — I missed the first paper) was titled (excitingly) “Reconciliation of Seemingly Inconsistent Data Series”.