To say that the U.S. auto sector continues to bleed may be an understatement. Maybe we should start talking about a severed artery.
Yearly Archives: 2008
Fiscal Implications of the Candidates’ Plans
I think now is the time to consider the fiscal implications of the candidates’ budget — and particularly tax — plans, especially considering the revenue declines and outlays that will confront the next President. Indeed, I would say imminent revenue declines will place an even greater premium on sensible tax plans, and efficient use of Federal dollars. Figure 1 displays the budget surplus to GDP ratio, both actual and CBO baseline.
More on Defense Spending
In my last post on the 08Q3 GDP release, I noted the remarkable contribution of defense spending. Here is a little more detail on the growth rates of defense spending on goods and services on a NIPA basis.
Some Additional Observations on the 2008Q3 Advance GDP Release
If you went no further than noticing that the q/q annualized growth rate of -0.3% was faster than the -0.5 in the Bloomberg consensus, you might have taken this as good news. I’m not going to say it wasn’t good news (relatively speaking), although negative growth makes the case for recession pretty good according to Jeff Frankel (who is on the NBER BCDC); see also RealTime Economics. However, there are some pretty interesting things that merit additional discussion.
Real GDP fell slightly in 2008:Q3
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP fell at a 0.3% annual rate in the third quarter of 2008. That’s the second quarter of negative real GDP growth out of the last four, and puts the cumulative annual growth since 2007:Q3 at an anemic 0.8%.
Deflation risk
There are plenty of things to worry about in the current economic situation. But deflation isn’t one of them.
Pocketful of Multipliers (II): Options for Stimulus Packages
As the debate over the nature and size of a stimulus package wends its way through the Congress [0], [1], [2], I thought it would be useful to bring numbers into the debate, especially as we are considering fiscal stimulus in a time when the Bush Administration has constrained, by dint of previous profligacy, our options. In particular, I want to return to the issue of multipliers, discussed in nearly a year ago. Here, I want to provide a little more specificity, regarding the impact depending upon the type of outlays.
Further rate cuts needed
The Fed will probably vote for another 50-basis-point cut in the fed funds rate this week, bringing its target down to 1%. Here’s why I think that would be a good idea.
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet
On Thursday, the Federal Reserve issued its weekly H.4.1 report, which provides details of the Fed’s balance sheet. Once upon a time, this was one of the least interesting of the government’s many releases of data. These days, it’s become one of the most exciting.
Yikes! Euro Area Edition
From the FT today:
Survey underlines grim outlook for eurozone
By Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt, Published: October 24 2008 11:23 | Last updated: October 24 2008 18:37The eurozone economy contracted sharply in October as the global bank crisis slammed the brakes on business activity and blackened the outlook for the 15-country region, a closely watched survey indicated on Friday.