Monday’s announcement that Chinese growth was decelerating was not surprising; that it decelerated to below the consensus of 9.7% growth to 9% (y/y) in 2008Q3 was a surprise. This was reflected in the headlines: “China growth rate slows sharply” (FT), “China less likely to buffer world crisis as its economy slows” (LA Times), “China’s economy feels chill from global crisis” (AP). For detailed numbers, see Haver.
Yearly Archives: 2008
Brief questions and answers on the fiscal stimulus
No time to post much today, so I’ll just pass along an interesting question and brief answer from the Econbrowser mail room.
CRA and Fannie and Freddie as betes noire
There is so much chaff floating around about the roles of Fannie and Freddie and of the Community Reinvestment Act in the current crisis, despite the best efforts of economists like Jim Hamilton [0] [1], Mark Thoma and Janet Yellen, that it seems worthwhile to once again go through some of the arguments that have been forwarded.
From David Goldstein and Kevin G. Hall, “Private sector loans, not Fannie or Freddie, triggered crisis”:
Federal Reserve Board data show that:
- More than 84 percent of the subprime mortgages in 2006 were issued by private lending institutions.
- Private firms made nearly 83 percent of the subprime loans to low- and moderate-income borrowers that year.
- Only one of the top 25 subprime lenders in 2006 was directly subject to the housing law that’s being lambasted by conservative critics. Continue reading
From the FT: The European Economic Outlook
From Europe’s Stormy Outlook:
Stormy conditions prevail across Europe’s economies, blackening the outlook after the arrival of a full-blown banking sector crisis this month sent confidence plummeting and threatened widespread-economic damage.
Jean-Claude Trichet, European Central Bank president, warned late on Sunday on French television of a “strong slowdown”.
The recent turmoil has hardened expectations that 2009 will see little, if any, growth across much of the Continent.
…
Bailouts for commodity speculators
If automakers are lining up at the trough, why not Big Agra?
More unhappy numbers
Updates on some of the series we regularly follow, and they’re not good.
Rapid Downward Revisions in Expected Growth
…or: “Yikes!”
There have been plenty of accounts that have noted the growing anxiety over economic growth over the short to medium term. However, this forecast from Deutsche Bank, released last night, is quite sobering, especially when compared to forecasts released just two weeks ago.
Balancing California’s Energy Needs with its Environmental Goals
That was the topic of a talk by Stanford Professor Frank Wolak at the UCSD Economics Roundtable on Tuesday.
High Frequency GDP Estimates: The Latest Read
…probably confirms one’s priors.
Credit Spreads and How Lax Is Monetary Policy?
All eyes have been on the housing market as the trigger for the financial crisis, but we’re all aware that there are other potential “triggers” for additional distress: auto loans and credit cards. In addition, spreads are not everything — levels of real interest rates matter as well.