I was astonished when I heard that the Fed is contemplating
increasing the Term Auction Facility to $900 billion. I wanted to take another look at the ever-changing balance sheet of the Fed to see how logistically Bernanke might be able to perform such a feat.
Yearly Archives: 2008
How Bad Will the Downturn Be? Stylized Facts
The IMF released several chapters of the World Economic Outlook; one chapter entitled Financial Stress and Economic Downturns provides some insights into the ramifications of the current financial turmoil.
Roundtable discussion on the financial crisis
I participated on Friday with several other UCSD faculty members (including Nobel laureate Harry Markowitz) in a discussion about the current economic crisis. If you have RealPlayer, you can view the discussion here, though I recommend fast-forwarding to skip the first 8 introductory minutes to get to the actual discussion. If you just want my slides, I’ve posted them here.
Are We Still Sure We’re Not in a Recession? More on the Employment Situation
I hate to pile on, perhaps in a repetitive fashion given Jim’s post, but a mere three weeks ago, Donald Luskin was asserting “Things today just aren’t that bad.” And, pulling a comment out from mid-September, we have this definitive statement: “But in the final analysis let’s just stick to facts. We are not in a recession.”
The downturn worsens
UCLA Professor Ed Leamer recently proposed four criteria for determining whether the economy is in recession, and concluded at the time of his study (two months ago) that the U.S. had not yet crossed that threshold. But this week’s data might cause him to change his mind.
Updating euro-area GDP forecasts
Here I relate some interesting new research on how to update economic forecasts with incoming daily data and the latest assessment of where things stand in Europe.
“Do I Feel Lucky?”
Reader Bruce Hall inquires why Econbrowser has not weighed in on the rescue debate. First, I’ll observe there has been plenty of commentary on the web. But if compelled, then speaking only for myself, I think the members of Congress who voted against the plan the first time should, this time around, ask themselves this single question: “Do I Feel Lucky?” Those who are familiar with this quote will understand my meaning.
Auto sales deteriorate further
U.S. auto sales have been dismal for most of this year. And they just took a turn for the worse.
Chinese Trade: An Update
I was surprised by this item from the BBC:
Chinese trade surplus at new high
Wednesday, 10 September 2008
China’s trade surplus hit a monthly record of $28.7bn (£16.28bn) in August as the gap with the US and Europe widened, despite weaker world demand.
Real GDP likely fell in Q3
Calculated Risk observes that we already know the values for a significant chunk of 2008:Q3 GDP. And it doesn’t look good.