Kansas Employment Declines

Bruce Bartlett alerts me to the continuing economic downturn in the state.

First, two measures of employment (the household series in red is measured with much greater error, due to the small sample).

ks_empl

Figure 1: Kansas nonfarm payroll employment in Missouri (blue), and civilian employment (red), 000’s, on log scale. Short dashed line at Brownback inauguration. Source: BLS and author’s calculations.

The comparison of Kansas (private) employment trends to that of its neighbor Missouri’s is not flattering.

ksmo_empljul16

Figure 2: Log private nonfarm payroll employment in Missouri (blue), Kansas (red), and US (black), all normalized to 2011M01=0. Short dashed line at Brownback inauguration, long dashed line at Nixon second inauguration. Source: BLS and author’s calculations.

12 thoughts on “Kansas Employment Declines

  1. 2slugbaits

    Well, earlier this week I was in a rural part of Kansas for a funeral. The KC area seems to be doing pretty well. The rest of the state…not so much. In fact, downright miserable. My relatives constantly complain about how bad things are, but yet they continue to vote against their interests year after year. On the way to the church I remember seeing this one run down ramshackle house that had an American flag hanging on the porch with a Confederate battle flag next to it…and a yuge Trump banner in the middle. My sympathies with down-and-out Kansans who continue to vote against their interests are just about run out.

    1. PeakTrader

      It seems, unhappy people run in your family.

      The Confederate flag not only represented slavery, it represented a limited federal government, states rights, and Judeo-Christian values. Slavery is no longer represented by the Confederate flag. Do you really believe people who fly the Confederate flag want slavery?

      You can buy a nice house on a large lot very cheap in rural or small town Kansas. And, some people don’t like crime or traffic jams, don’t mind driving an hour to Walmart, like open spaces, neighborly people, a quiet life.

      Your relatives may become even more unhappy when beaurauecrats in Washington micromanage almost everything in their lives.

      1. 2slugbaits

        Peak Trader,

        I would agree that for most people the Confederate flag does not represent slavery. In today’s world it usually signals two things. The first signal is one of white nationalism; i.e., stuff like “take back our country” and “make America great again”…with “great” being code for white. The second thing that the Confederate flag signals is the self-delusion that flying the Confederate battle flag signals you are some kind of young, untamed, independent, rebellious spirit. Think of Lynyrd Skynyrd’s “Free Bird” anthem. A lot of aging Trump voters fit both stereotypes. The problem isn’t that those are stereotypes; the problem is that too many real people really do fit the stereotype.

        And yes, the males on that side of the family are unhappy, which might go a long way towards explaining their interest in Trump. But the women on that side of the family having nothing good to say about Trump. Then again, you don’t see a lot of women blasting “Free Bird” from their old pickup truck.

      2. dw

        actually the confederacy wasnt pro states rights, they wanted the other states to accept slavery, they sued (and won) more than few times to get other states to enforce owning humans.

      3. Maximum Liberty

        @PeakTrader: As a white, southern conservatarian (and thus an almost-never poster here), allow me to tell you that the main message that the Stars and Bars sends is the same one that the Klan was sending from 1870 onwards. No, it’s not pro-slavery. But it is racist. There’s a reason the guys in bedsheets and pointy hats waved it around.

        Yes, there are other uses, such as to self-identify as a redneck, (See, e.g., the Dukes of Hazard., who get a pass because — as the song unambiguously tells us — they’re just good ol’ boys, never meanin’ no harm.) But the sender of an ambiguous message ought to be responsible for its erroneous reception.

        I’m all for limited government, for state’s rights as opposed to federal rights, and generally in alignment with Christian values. But I would never choose the Confederate battle flag to send that message. If you’re not a troll, you seem woefully ignorant of your cultural surroundings.

    2. PeakTrader

      And, after the Civil War, Americans, and Western Europeans, believed in social Darwism. Should we also ban the American flag?

  2. Joseph

    PeakTrader: “The Confederate flag not only represented slavery, it represented a limited federal government, states rights, and Judeo-Christian values. Slavery is no longer represented by the Confederate flag. Do you really believe people who fly the Confederate flag want slavery? “

    Okay, now we just know that PeakTrader is trolling. He has demonstrated that he is not clever. He is just a hateful, disgusting human being. We are not required to be respectful of this behavior.

    1. PeakTrader

      Joseph, so, no comment on social Darwinism? I think, it’s disgusting to remain ignorant, intolerant, and hateful all your life. You should at least respect other Americans, who disagree with your beliefs. You may learn something.

      1. Menzie Chinn Post author

        PeakTrader: I think I missed the war we (the United States) fought in defense of social Darwinism…please provide dates and names of combatant countries.

        1. PeakTrader

          Menzie Chinn, are you implying American social Darwinism wasn’t bad, because there was no war?

          Maybe, there was no war, because it was universally accepted, like slavery was at one time.

          1. baffling

            “Maybe, there was no war, because it was universally accepted, like slavery was at one time.”
            i think you are overstating its acceptance. unless you are willing to acknowledge that laissez-faire capitalism is a form of social darwinism. modern conservative thought also follows the rabbit down the hole hole in this regard. universally accepted is rewriting history.

            i don’t think America and the American flag would be well represented by this viewpoint at all.

  3. James E

    What the graph is showing that many people are moving closer to MO to find work while living in KS. It is something that was mentioned some time back when you started putting data on KS.

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