Kansas Employment Rises to 0.3% below Previous Peak

Kansas nonfarm payroll employment rose 4,200 (0.3%) from January to February, and fell 400 (0%) relative to February 2016. In both cases the change was not statistically significant. In contrast, Missouri NFP rose 3,500 (0.1%) over the last month, and 54,000 (1.9%) over the last year.

Figure 1: Kansas nonfarm payroll employment (red), Missouri nonfarm payroll employment (blue), and US (black), all normalized to 2011M01=0. Source: BLS, and author’s calculations.

With numbers like these, it’s no wonder that the Governor’s Council of Economic Advisers no longer posts its reports [1], and the Department of Commerce reports data from 2014 on its Employment and Economy website. Don’t bother clicking on the links. When you click on Job Trends, Wages and Market Data, this is what you get (as of 4/1/2017 1:17PM CST):

Pretty fitting, I’d say.

Philadelphia Fed coincident indices, reflecting the benchmarked employment data, will be released on April 3rd. We’ll then see if how Kansas is faring overall (and maybe a hint whether it remains in recession).

25 thoughts on “Kansas Employment Rises to 0.3% below Previous Peak

  1. Samuel

    Meanwhile, Gov. Sam Brownback vetoed legislation that would have expanded Medicaid to cover 150,000 low-income Kansans. Because, it “…lacks work requirements to help able-bodied Kansans escape poverty….”

    From the report, “Medicaid, which relies on a combination of federal and state funds, provides health coverage to disabled people and low-income families. The ACA enabled states to expand the program to provide coverage to people who would make too much money to qualify for the program under previous rules but also make too little to buy insurance through the federal health care exchange.”

    Maybe Kansas should pay its workers more.

    Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article141667939.html

    1. DeDude

      Yes in the alternative universe of Brownback those who make to much money to qualify for Medicaid need a “work requirement” – not a raise. Now if only they could find a third job; but no not in Kansas anymore – then they might be able to afford the pills that can keep them awake 24 hours a day (so they can hold that 3’rd job)

  2. randomworker

    I guess the Gov. Brownback is trying to finagle an ambassadorship outta the Trump administration. To the Vatican, they say. Get out of town fast. Hahahahaaaaaahaha. Omg.

  3. PeakTrader

    It’s naive to assume the small state tax changes in Kansas had much of an effect on its economy. There are much more powerful forces at work that the state government has no control over, including commodity prices (e.g. wheat, cattle, and oil), the mix of industries (which cannot be changed quickly), a brain drain (graduates getting jobs in other states where other industries, finally, had greater improvements), etc..

      1. PeakTrader

        Menzie Chinn, it looks like omitted variable bias. It’s not an ideal tax plan, e.g. lower income taxes and higher sales taxes. However, the net effect on workers is likely very small. Moreover, a smaller and more efficient government is a worthy goal.

        1. baffling

          Conservatives tried a smaller and more efficient government in Kansas. The experiment failed. You seem to be unwilling to acknowledge that reality.

        2. spencer

          Maybe, but boy you sure have changed your tune from what you were singing a few years ago.

          You are a great example why my politics are simple, I just oppose anything the Republicans say or propose. That does not mean I am pro-democratic, I’m just for honesty, and you are a typical republican in that you display very little. No wonder you like Trump — birds of a feather.

          Chinn– maybe you have given this idiot enough rope and it is time to ban him. He does not add anything to the conversation.

          1. PeakTrader

            Spencer, I agree, you’re simple. And, you’ve proven again you’re just another intolerant rigid ideologue. You haven’t contributed anything of value here. Next time provide an economics argument rather than play political games. I suspect, more people vote Republican, in national, state, and local elections, because it’s embarrassing what the Democrat party has become. You make too many false assumptions.

          2. PeakTrader

            Menzie Chinn, and yet, someone like Donald Trump won! If the Donald ran as a Democrat, I wonder if he would have lost and lost big.

          1. PeakTrader

            Menzie Chinn, for example, commodity prices began a steep decline in 2014 and Kansas may have had a disproportionately larger share of its economy influenced by lower commodity prices, and its multiplier effects, compared to other states.

          2. baffling

            Peak, rather than speculate and imply your speculation is fact. Try doing an analysis and show that your omitted variable exists, and what it actually represents. Otherwise it may as well be fairy dust.

            But i suspect you are not interested in doing an analysis which would conflict with your world view. Hence your inability to accept the failure in Kansas for what it is. A conservative ideology, when implemented, which was a disaster.

          3. PeakTrader

            Baffling, you’re the one who “speculates” and then concludes “facts” from only a politically biased view. It’s a ridiculous methodology that’s void of any economics. You’re a joke. Stop wasting people’s time.

          4. baffling

            No peak. you threw out a bunch of “causes” of the failed performance, with absolutely nothing to support your argument that these were in fact the causes. simply ideology. in fact, menzi has done the work in the past to indicate many of your “causes” are not statistically relevant. but you do not accept those results. you simply rinse and repeat. you quit repeating and i will quit responding. but you want the ability to promote false narratives without challenge. not acceptable.

          5. PeakTrader

            Baffling, your whole statement is a false narrative. Obviously, you’re hoping there are fools to believe you. Pathetic.

          6. baffling

            so peak, you are willing to go on record that kansas economy is doing well based on the data presented?

  4. Willie

    Peak Trader, please look at the graph. When, exactly did Brownback gain office, and when did Kansas start underperforming? Sure, commodities have an effect, but not all the way back to 2011. Sometimes, policies matter. Kansas will be even worse off in the future, because it’s tough to get an education there and if you have an education, you probably have to leave in order to prosper.

    1. PeakTrader

      Willie, Kansas is closer to full employment than the U.S. economy. It has a higher labor force participation rate and a lower unemployment rate. The U.S. economy has been catching up to the Kansas economy. Of course, Kansas didn’t move beyond full employment. Every economic expansion is different and there are other variables affecting the Kansas economy than just “government.”

      1. spencer

        The BLS shows that US employment is about 4% higher than at the previous peak compared to Kansas being -0.3% below its previous peak.

        Please explain the data behind your conclusion that Kansas is closer to full employment than the US.

  5. 2slugbaits

    NoiseTrader Have you been to Kansas recently? It’s a wasteland. I only go there for the (all to frequent) funerals of the lucky ones. Kansas isn’t the only agricultural state. Ever been to Minnesota or the Dakotas? They have wheat, just like Kansas. Ever been to Nebraska, Missouri or Iowa? They have corn just like Kansas. What’s unique about Kansas that might explain its consistently poor economic performance, which (coincidentally?) aligns with Brownback the Clueless. Maybe he should have spent more time educating actual, living children instead of obsessing over fetuses. I think the people of Kansas ought to thank the Vatican for accepting this loser of a politician.

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