“Seattle’s Chinese American veterans to receive long overdue honor from U.S.”

I saw this Seattle Times article while visiting my hometown, and it struck me as relevant, as the Trump administration is now deporting veterans, willy nilly. From the article.

When the [Second World] war began, the United States government had not yet repealed the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882, the nation’s first immigration ban on a specific ethnic group. The law severely limited Chinese immigrants from entering the country and becoming naturalized citizens for more than 60 years, until the end of 1943.

This meant that while up to 20,000 Chinese Americans served in the military during World War II, about 40% were not even granted citizenship, according to the Chinese-American World War II Veteran Congressional Gold Medal Act.

Turning to the present, Trump now deporting military veterans, in violation of federal rules. From a recent GAO report:

 U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has developed policies for handling cases of noncitizen veterans who may be subject to removal from the United States, but does not consistently adhere to those policies, and does not consistently identify and track such veterans. When ICE agents and officers learn they have encountered a potentially removable veteran, ICE policies require them to take additional steps to proceed with the case. GAO found that ICE did not consistently follow its policies involving veterans who were placed in removal proceedings from fiscal years 2013 through 2018. Consistent implementation of its policies would help ICE better ensure that veterans receive appropriate levels of review before they are placed in removal proceedings. Additionally, ICE has not developed a policy to identify and document all military veterans it encounters during interviews, and in cases when agents and officers do learn they have encountered a veteran, ICE does not maintain complete electronic data. Therefore, ICE does not have reasonable assurance that it is consistently implementing its policies for handling veterans’ cases.

The moral and ethical bankruptcy of this administration is breathtaking.

 

Update, 9am Pacific 6/19:

Reader CoRev is unable to read text and graph in the introduction of a GAO Report, when he asserts the tendency to deport rises with the Trump administration. From CoRev:

Menzie’s TDS is getting out of hand: “Turning to the present, Trump now deporting military veterans, in violation of federal rules. From a recent GAO report: ” While the GAO REPORT actually says this: “…GAO found that ICE did not consistently follow its policies involving veterans who were placed in removal proceedings from fiscal years 2013 through 2018….” Obama’s administration accounts for 4 of those 6 years studied. That’s 2/3 of the time period for the math impaired. [bold emphasis added by CoRev]

From the Report:

USCIS made several changes to its military naturalization processes in response to or in tandem with DOD’s policy changes. First, in July 2017, USCIS determined that the completion of DOD background checks was relevant to MAVNI recruits’ eligibility for naturalization. USCIS thus began requiring currently-serving MAVNI recruits seeking military naturalization to complete all required DOD background checks before USCIS interviewed them, approved their applications, or administered the Oath of Allegiance to naturalize them.47 Second, in January 2018, USCIS ended its initiative to naturalize new enlistees at basic training sites. This initiative, known as the “Naturalization at Basic Training Initiative”, began in August 2009 as an effort to conduct outreach to new enlistees at the Army’s five basic training sites and provide noncitizen enlistees an opportunity to naturalize prior to completion of basic training. Because of DOD’s October 2017 policy change increasing the amount of time noncitizens must serve before they are eligible for a characterization of service determination, noncitizen service members no longer meet the requirements for naturalization while they are completing basic training. As a result, USCIS closed naturalization offices in Fort Sill, Fort Benning, and Fort Jackson.

I.e., the Trump administration made steps to enhance procedural barriers in order to reduce the flow through this channel. I also add a graph that GAO thought sufficiently important to place in the summary.

Given GAO’s assessment, it would be foolish to dismiss the FY 2017 and FY 2018 decline in received applications and approved applications as merely coincidental.

Unless you are a fool, an apologist, or both.

Update, 1:45PM Pacific: If you think it’s all coincidence, you might want to consider the following:

 

https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2018/7/9/17549402/citizenship-military-mavni-immigration-service-naturalization-discharge-history-mavni

https://psmag.com/social-justice/the-u-s-is-denying-citizenship-to-service-members-at-an-unprecedented-rate

I think CoRev should just be honest: he/she wants immigration restricted, even those who serve in the armed forces (although he/she might be willing to give a waiver to Norwegians serving in the US armed forces).

130 thoughts on ““Seattle’s Chinese American veterans to receive long overdue honor from U.S.”

  1. Not Trampis

    Come now Chinny,
    After all all these bludgers did was to fight for your country. They were will ing to lose their lives for your country.

    The ONLY people worth staying are property developers surely.

    and i won’t call you shirly again ( for Flying High fans)

  2. Moses Herzog

    Of course all of these stories are very troublesome and cause internal consternation for anyone with the slightest moral compass. Such as the children in the ICE camps. But I will be honest and admit that some of the stories about the Mideast interpreters stuck in limbo were more bothersome for me than some of the others.
    https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-01-31/iraqi-translators-who-served-us-military-are-desperate-exemption-trumps-travel

    These guys even had U.S. military soldiers in different interviews saying these guys had risked their own lives and had saved dozens of others, only left to be hung out to dry. If we go back there (for whatever reasons, legitimate or otherwise) who is going to risk their life when they saw what the trump administration did to the other translators??? I saw very few “happy ending” stories after a rash of these translator dilemmas hit the national news. When there were no “Remember a few weeks/months ago when we told you about ‘translator X’ ” stories, what are we to believe happened to those guys?? Then we wonder why Mid-East Arabs hate the USA. What kind of honor does that bring the American nation—that we can’t even keep our word to guys who laid it on the line for us??
    https://www.stripes.com/news/middle-east/special-forces-soldiers-fight-to-grant-last-wish-of-iraqi-interpreter-killed-in-action-1.546347

    “No soldier left behind”—the but Afghan or Kurdish translator who jumped on top of a bomb for you or risked complete alienation in his hometown for the U.S. military is now “road kill”??

  3. CoRev

    Menzie’s TDS is getting out of hand: “Turning to the present, Trump now deporting military veterans, in violation of federal rules. From a recent GAO report: ” While the GAO REPORT actually says this: “…GAO found that ICE did not consistently follow its policies involving veterans who were placed in removal proceedings from fiscal years 2013 through 2018….” Obama’s administration accounts for 4 of those 6 years studied. That’s 2/3 of the time period for the math impaired.

    Of course, using Salon as a source compounds the TDS with bias confirmation: ” It (Salon) publishes articles on U.S. politics, culture, and current events and has a politically progressive, liberal editorial stance.”

    1. pgl

      Salon? Menzie linked to the Seattle Times. Did you even read this story or what? Oh wait – you saw a reference to a reporter name Mimi Gan. Eww – she’s Chinese. She must work for the evil Salon? Is that what you thought CoRev? Pathetic. BTW – it took me 2 seconds to find her profile on Linkedin.

      https://www.linkedin.com/in/mimi-gan-7873012/

      Oh my – she has never worked for Salon. But she is of Chinese heritage so a reading impaired racist like you have to dismiss her reporting. I’m sure you are wearing that MAGA hat – Make America White Again. But damn – learn to READ!

      1. CoRev

        Pgl clearly didn’t read any of the link provided by Menzie. His 2nd: https://www.salon.com/2019/06/13/clumsiness-or-cruelty-trump-now-deporting-military-veterans-in-violation-of-federal-rules/ and his 3rd: https://www.gao.gov/assets/700/699549.pdf

        Had pgl even read the my comment just a little more closely he would have noted: “While the GAO REPORT actually says this: “…GAO found that ICE did not consistently follow its policies involving veterans who were placed in removal proceedings from fiscal years 2013 through 2018….” from where my quote was obtained.

        IPgl’s reaction would almost be ludicrous, except it is so typical of him. Just another fish in the barrel response to him

        1. pgl

          So your point now is that MULTIPLE sources confirmed what the original reporting noted? Lord CoRev – this is weak even for you!

      2. Barkley Rosser

        Now now, pgl. Poor CoRev is a victim of RTDS. But he has a medallion that went to the moon and back attesting to his successful career, even though he lacks any professional degrees. Not only that, but he is a gentleman farmer and an expert on climatology, so, please cut him some slack here.

        1. pgl

          We have multiple sources for what Menzie noted. And CoRev has declared this all fake news? His rebuttal sources seem to be nothing. RTDS indeed!

        2. CoRev

          Barkley, how’s your “pull my finger” story holding up? Incidentally did your father also get an Apollo 11 medallion from NASA? From your story he should have for saving all the Mercury, Gemini and Apollo, manned missions, or was it the whole space program. as you so naively claimed?

          BTW, you are clueless about my degrees. Women’s and Gender Studies is clearly professional at all levels. 😉

          1. Barkley Rosser

            No medallion, CoRev, just a Presidential Certificate of Merit, as well as separate ones from five separate bodies of the US government.

            So, when your medallion went to the moon, did an astronaut wear it around his neck and chant your name in gratitude?

          2. pgl

            Chirp, chirp, chirp. That is all you got. Try addressing the facts presented without going all KellyAnneConway on us!

          3. CoRev

            Barkley, no medallion? So sorry to hear. He clearly was deserving having saved the ENTIRE MANNED EARLY SPACE PROGRAM, Mercury, Gemini and Apollo missions (as your pull my finger story claimed).

            As to my Women’s and Gender Studies degrees, I bet you don’t have the equivalent. 😉

            The measure of successful science is its ability to predict. Why have we NOT seen your list of those successful climate model predictions? After 90+ published papers and many non-published support roles clearly there were NUMEROUS successful predictions. Or were there none?

            Inquiring minds and all????

          4. Menzie Chinn Post author

            CoRev: Seriously, you’re asking Barkley about his credentials (which I think include peer-reviewed publications) when you are unable to point to a single one of your peer reviewed publication, despite repeated requests from me.

            You make me laugh and laugh and laugh.

          5. CoRev

            Menzie, you got it wrong again. “Seriously, you’re asking Barkley about his credentials (which I think include peer-reviewed publications) when you are unable to point to a single one of your peer reviewed publication, despite repeated requests from me.

            You make me laugh and laugh and laugh.”

            I’ve not asked for his credentials, but proof, with successful predictions, of the validity of his models. To date he has provided zero evidence of their success. Having peer-reviewed publications is unimportant in almost the entirety of the world outside science and academia. Quantity is not quality. There’s a reason the RETRACTION WATCH Blog exsts.

            If you remember I made a similar request for your soybean price model. BTW, we are getting closer to the model’s magic validation date.

          6. Menzie Chinn Post author

            CoRev: What predictions have you made — e.g., hyperinflation due to currency debasement (well, when last ask, you then said you just posted somebody else’s prediction on your own defunct blog) — that have panned out. What about that hiatus in temperature increases?

          7. 2slugbaits

            CoRev I’ve not asked for his credentials, but proof, with successful predictions, of the validity of his models. To date he has provided zero evidence of their success.

            You don’t read econ or math stuff, so it’s unlikely that you would come across any of this, but on p. 309 of Nassim Talib’s second edition of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable you will find an explicit acknowledgement of Barkley Rosser’s contributions.

          8. Barkley Rosser

            CoRev,

            CoRev,

            To repeat, my late father’s insight did not save Mercury or Gemini as neither of them involved going to the moon, but it did save Apollo, which did involve going to the moon. Really.

            Again, you might find his Mathematics of Space Flight informative; it is quite readable and still in print. He had a followup that is “Theory and Application” of a long and multiple integral, which is almost entirely long integral equations. That one is not so readable and is is not in print anymore. I can tell you that a lot of it is about nozzles, but even I and my astrophysicist brother-in-law find it hard to figure out..

            Apparently your “medallion” is as big of a joke as your womens’ studies degree.

            And as for models, well the first climate one I worked on as a low life RA had problems and did not make accurate forecasts. It was run by global warming skeptics led by the late Reid Bryson. So in fact I learned a great deal from that exercise, which went on for several years. Later papers have not involved that model, but rather have drawn on models used by the IPCC and some others with better records than that one from well over 40 years ago..

            How are your models doing and what is their track record, just to add on to Menzie’s questions? After all, CoRev, you are tho one who has been claiming to know more about climate change than I do, not to mention the US space program regarding the moon.

            As an example of my late old man being off about the moon program, in 1929 he publicly forecast that Man would land on the Moon within 50 years and was duly ridiculed. He was 10 years too slow, the incompetent. He would later joke that not only was he off by 10 years, but he failed to forecast that he would get to watch the first moon landing live on TV.

            Maybe you should get one of those Belerus tractors to ride around on your gentleman’s farm. I hear you might be able to afford it, even with your lousy record on forecasting soybean markets.

          9. Barkley Rosser

            This is really getting tiresome, but just a bit more, especially given some other folks showing up, such as…

            Thanks, 2Slug, for reminding of Taleb’s nice comment. of course this must be discounted as I have him on my the editorial board of the journal I edit, Review of Behavioral Economics (ROBE).

            Regarding the matter of actually making predictions, I have regularly noted that I do so infrquently, and never have specifically in any of my work on climate-related matters. I prefer to analyze models out there and comment on ranges. Thus, an implication of my work on complex dynamics is that Martin Weitzman looks to be likely to be right that the reasonable distribution of likely future outcomes of global temperature is more likely to follow power law distributions than normal Gaussian ones, which means higher variance, exactly the sort of thing warning against precise predictions, although not disputingthe expected means of the widely accepted IPCC projections, which is what CoReV seems to want to ctiticize with his superior knowledge of these matters. I discussed this in a publication not cited by Menzie, a recent book, which happens to have well over 50 citations on GS.

            Oh, and CoRev, I have over 200 publications, not just over 90, so my “quantity” problem is even worse than you thought. Way too much of it.

            I have in fact called a number of things, although I shall not mention an obvious source for finding them. But I shall repeat one that I have mentioned in this venue previously, although it does not show up in that obvious source, my July 2008 forecast on Econospeak, picked up by Mark Thoma at Economists View, of an impedning haed crash of global financial markets. That was based strongly on a then unpublished paper with Mauro Gallegati and Antonio Palestrini about an agent-based model of Minskyan financial market dynamics, later published in Macroeconomic Dynamics. I think this was one of the things that has Taleb respecting me, although he did mention anything specific in his book.

            Oh, and CoRev, my poor old late man did not get a medallion. Presidential Certificates of Merit are merely pieces of paper with stuff written on them.

            Also, for the record, I confess not to having previously seen this odd phrase “pull my finger,” although I gather from your usage of it that it is supposed to mean “false” in a wittily sarcastic manner. But then, I guess it actually refers to your bizarre medallion story instead.

    2. Menzie Chinn Post author

      CoRev: Try reading a bit; from the Report.

      U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) and the Department of Defense (DOD) have policies facilitating the naturalization of noncitizen service members and veterans, and provide informational resources to noncitizen service members seeking naturalization. The number of military naturalization
      applications received by USCIS declined sharply from fiscal years 2017 to 2018, resulting in a decreased number of applications approved in fiscal year 2018.
      USCIS and DOD officials attributed this decline to several DOD policy changes that reduced the number of noncitizens joining the military.

      So your incredibly complex mathematical analysis would’ve been better directed toward thinking about application/approval levels.

      See the addendum to the post.

      1. CoRev

        Menzie thinks this update and his attempt at an explanatory comment alters his 1st Trump claim. Which was: “Turning to the present,Trump now deporting military veterans, in violation of federal rules.” No, the GAO reference was to mainly to Obama’s policy, 2013 thru 2017. As Menzie said: “Unless you are a fool, an apologist, or both.” Accepting these years as TRUMPS just makes no sense. Well unless your TDS is our of control.

        Even his updated chart shows the acceptance levels dropping under Obama. So your incredibly complex analysis would’ve been better directed toward thinking about application/approval levels, and under which administration the changes occurred.

        1. Menzie Chinn Post author

          CoRev: Are you an idiot? FY2016 is the last complete year under Obama. Without a higher frequency time series we are unable to distinguish fully — but a reasonable person might be able to look at FY2018 and conclude that indeed there has been a change in trend.

          By the way, given there is only a 3.5 months of FY 2017 in the Obama administration, the fact that approvals dropped substantially in FY 2017 suggests to me that approvals came to a screeching halt under the Trump administration. However, I wouldn’t conclude that w/o greater information.

          I would suggest you go back to high school math class, but I think you are dedicated to being an apologist, in which case there’s no point.

          1. pgl

            “CoRev: Are you an idiot?”

            A simple question with an obvious answer – yes. But then that is who Trump tends to hire as apologists and advisers.

          2. 2slugbaits

            Menzie CoRev: Are you an idiot?

            The question answers itself. CoRev’s math skills are minimal and his understanding of time series analysis nonexistent. Or perhaps the GAO’s used of a line graph (rather than a bar graph) with low frequency data might have tripped him up. Okay, I’m being generous.

            Other things equal, we would have expected the number of applications to drift downward during the Obama years for the simple reason that the authorized troop strength numbers were on a downward glidepath. In response to the sequestrations the Army was pushing soldiers out the door. In fact, I even commented here about how even deployed soldiers were surprised to learn that they were being mustered out even though they had no intention of leaving the Army. The fact that there is no significant trend in applications received & approved from 2013 thru 2016 tells us that applications as a percent of the force were probably increasing.

          3. Menzie Chinn Post author

            2slugbaits: True, I don’t think he has an inkling of formal time series analysis, as shown by his “analysis” of soybean prices as included in this post. “Woefully inadequate” is being kind.

          4. CoRev

            Menzie,http://econbrowser.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/GAO_milnatapps.png. Presumably from GAO, your original source, and now you want us to believe the GAO Report is wrong? Or is it you just don’t want to accept what is obvious? In your own words: “but a reasonable person might be able to look at FY2018 and conclude that indeed there has been a change in trend. ” Which started in FY2016, or also in October 1 of calendar year 2015.

            Ignoring the major point that FY2013 through FY2016 were years under Obama policy, as well as a portion of FY2017, the start of the Trump administration.

            Policy shifted in FY2018 due to earlier lessons learned: “The DoD states that they made the changes after “lessons learned” from the Military Accessions Vital to the National Interest (MAVNI) Pilot Program—a program devised as a way for legal noncitizens to obtain expedited citizenship… (Lawful Permanent Residents) recruits must complete a background investigation and receive a favorable military security suitability determination (MSSD) prior to initial military training and entry in the active, reserve, or guard service. This is a change from the original policy, which allowed for LPR recruits to enter initial military training as long as their background investigation had been initiated and they had cleared other entry screening requirements. ”
            https://dlgvisablog.com/blog/dod-policy-changes-to-lawful-permanent-residents-and-the-military-accessions-vital-to-the-national-interest-mavni-pilot-program

            So, a policy change early in FY2018/CY2017 is not responsible for changes in requests and Approvals for US citizenship starting in FY2016/CY2015. What changed at the end of the Obama administration to start those trend changes so obvious in your GAO chart?

            BTW, you might want to know that the requesters for the GAO Report were 2 Cali Democratic Congressmen. If that matters at all.

          5. Menzie Chinn Post author

            CoRev: Read…the…report, about how Trump et al. placed administrative barriers (closing offices at military bases, allowing wait times to lengthen) to increase. So…read the report.

          6. 2slugbaits

            CoRev What changed at the end of the Obama administration to start those trend changes so obvious in your GAO chart?

            What change in trend at the end of the Obama administration? I don’t see any “obvious” change in trend from 2013 thru 2016. Looks pretty flat to me.

          7. CoRev

            Menzie, are you and idiot? I did read the GAO Report, but doubt you and many others commenting did. In it we find:
            ” Based on our review of the alien files of 87 of the individuals that OPLA’s check box indicated were veterans and ERO indicated had been removed, we identified the following characteristics:

            68 veterans (78 percent) were ordered removed because of at least one aggravated felony conviction, while the remaining 19 (22 percent) were ordered removed for non-aggravated felony convictions. Of the convictions ICE cited on the 87 veterans’ NTAs: 32 veterans had drug-related convictions; 20 had convictions related to sexual abuse, of which 18 involved minors; 21 had convictions related to homicide, assault, or attempted homicides or assaults; 16 had theft-related convictions; and 9 had convictions related to firearms, explosives, or explosive material”

            What TRUMP policy caused them to be CAUGHT doing these unlawful actions? Remember it is your claim: “The moral and ethical bankruptcy of this administration is breathtaking.” And, yet when challenged have shown no proof to back up your claim, and won’t even admit your own chart doesn’t support the timing.

            What TRUMP policy made the trends begin to dip in CY2015, while Obama was President?

          8. Menzie Chinn Post author

            CoRev: Gee, looking at the graph, approvals rose in FY2016, the last complete year under Obama.

            If you don’t think self-dealing, saying white nationalists at Charlottesville “were good people”, pervasive lying, obstruction of justice, violation of treaty agreements on asylum, and separation of children from parents without implementing a system for reunification moral and ethical lapses, well, I guess you thought Hitler was just a misunderstood joe.

          9. CoRev

            Further reading of the GAO Report finds: “USCIS and DOD officials attributed the decline in military naturalization applications to several DOD policy changes. First, DOD suspended the MAVNI program in September 2016, which reduced the number of noncitizens joining the military.” Obama’s policies were in effect in September 2016?

            An astute reader may have noticed my attention on the removal process. That is because the GAO Report did so. It recommended:
            “We are making the following three recommendations to ICE:
            •The Director of ICE should take action to ensure consistent implementation of ICE’s policies for handling cases of potentially removable veterans. (Recommendation 1)
            •The Director of ICE should develop and implement a policy or revise its current polices to ensure that ICE agents and officers identify and document veteran status when interviewing potentially removable individuals. (Recommendation 2)
            •The Director of ICE should collect and maintain complete and electronic data on veterans in removal proceedings or who have been removed. (Recommendation 3)”

      2. CoRev

        Ding, ding ding, Menzie’s comment is out of bounds: “I guess you thought Hitler was just a misunderstood joe.”
        Godwin’s law – Wikipedia
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin's_law

        For example, there is a tradition in many newsgroups and other Internet discussion forums that, when a Hitler comparison is made, the thread is finished and whoever made the comparison loses whatever debate is in progress. This principle is itself frequently referred to as Godwin’s law.”

        You’ve had to resort to ad hominem responses lately. Please respond to the argument instead of the person.

        1. Menzie Chinn Post author

          CoRev: Gee, this is my blog (in part); I thought I set the bounds. I’ve not had to *resort* to ad hominem responses – they are merely the frustration of one who keeps on trying to explain what a futures contract is, what an ARIMA is, what a DMW statistic is, over and over, to somebody who doesn’t even seem to know what a nonstationary series is.

          1. CoRev

            Menzie, frustration is rampant. I have also tried to explain the impact of weather on farmer’s thinking and economic success. After rejecting that explanation, we now have the 2019-20 growing season where many farmers have been unable to plant. Not because of tariffs but of WEATHER. Those farmers, if they had the correct crop insurance will salvage income, but for those who did not anticipate the severity of the weather, they will take a near total loss.

            From some reports even the simple crops such as hay are severely impacted, and that will impact meat prices.

            I’ve tried to explain that a singular event, tariffs, are over come by other and multiple of others (weather). Do another event study!

          2. Menzie Chinn Post author

            CoRev: I really don’t understand your argument:

            a singular event, tariffs, are over come by other and multiple of others (weather).

            Are you saying that in efficient markets, like the soybean futures market, as new information arrives, it will be impounded into the price, invalidating the point that the best predictor today of the spot price in the future is today’s future’s price?

          3. CoRev

            Menzie, now I don’t understand you comment. Are you disagreeing with Fama? “Are you saying that in efficient markets, like the soybean futures market, it will be impounded into the price, invalidating the point that the best predictor today of the spot price in the future is today’s future’s price?

            You’ve implied for a year that the tariffs were the major driver of soybean prices. What are you trying to say with these two disjointed points? Are you saying tariff impacts on futures prices will be reduced or even obviated as new information arrives and is impounded? I believe that do you?

            Or are you saying that your price model can predict all that new information, and it is not impounded? Or that that new information can not over ride the conditions at the prediction point?

            Your position need clarification, as it is now well stated above.

          4. Menzie Chinn Post author

            CoRev: You are mis-stating my position. My assertion is that when I am looking at specific dates when Trump is announcing section 301 action, and there is movement, it’s likely *that movement* is due to tariffs…That is the basis for literally *thousands* of event studies, including ones on soybeans. Here I think you are being willfully dense.

          5. CoRev

            Misstating or misunderstanding your comment. I admit to misunderstanding it.

            I translate your intransigence on the tariff event to be a singular event that impacted prices with no other intervening events. From the beginning I’ve allowed the impact on prices of the tariffs, but the several peaks and valleys since are also solely due only to the tariffs? If that’s your position then we certainly do disagree.

            The past 52 week high has been $9.31 and today the Jan 2020 futures price is $941.5 on a high negative movement day. I picked January as the first trading month after the 2019 harvest. How did the tariffs impact those 2019 harvest prices, other than setting the lower trading plateau we’ve seen since the start of the 2018 harvest season?

        2. CoRev

          Menzie, while we are discussing new information being impounded in prices, have you done an event study on the extended effects of ASF on US prices?

  4. Bruce Hall

    This is an example of bloated, inefficient government bureaucracy that can’t follow its own policies. When Trump became president in 2012, he had a chance to correct this situation, but obviously chose not to.
    When ICE agents and officers learn they have encountered a potentially removable veteran, ICE policies require them to take additional steps to proceed with the case. GAO found that ICE did not consistently follow its policies involving veterans who were placed in removal proceedings from fiscal years 2013 through 2018.

    Perhaps it is time to have a re-examination of all immigration laws and policies and how they are followed at the federal, state, and local levels. After all, since legal immigration was shut off it has become necessary to ignore and oppose current laws. http://www.ncsl.org/research/immigration/snapshot-of-u-s-immigration-2017.aspx

    Regardless, it is time to correct this situation concerning military veterans.

    1. 2slugbaits

      Bruce Hall Perhaps it is time to have a re-examination of all immigration laws

      I agree. And resurrecting the Bush#43/Karl Rove immigration plan would be a good place to start. No one ever accused me of being a big Bush#43, but I always thought his immigration plan was very good. Bush was much better than Obama (who was pretty bad) and orders of magnitude better than Trump.

      1. noneconomist

        Fifteen years ago, on travels through the South, we spent the night in Waycross, Georgia. Hard not to notice the market not far from our motel. All signs were in Spanish, including food and a Western Union(?) connection. That market reminded me of those you see in small Central Valley towns in California but there it was. In Waycross, Georgia.
        Those were the days when reps and senators were actually trying to figure how to best construct a san immigration policy. Before candidates insisted everyone had to go back where they came from before they could return legally. Or before the rubes fell for the promise that Mexico would pay for a 35 foot high modular concrete border wall. a promise even sillier than the “all 11 million of you go back and then we’ll talk” nonsense of prior years.
        Of course, Bush II was fairly proficient in Spanish and spoke it better than he spoke English. Who knew he would be a better speaker in either language than the current WH occupant?
        One large continuing fly in this ointment are those employers (and their congressional reps) –large numbers of whom loudly proclaim their principled conservatism–who’ve been looking the other way for so long at this problem, they’ve lost any credibility they might once have had. The richest and most productive agricultural county in California (25% of employment is connected agriculture) is represented in Congress by two-faced buffoon Kevin McCarthy who, of course, is all for the wall, tariffs, etc. Hint: if they sent every undocumented worker back from his district, his tenure in the House would soon be on life support.
        And so it goes. More needless posturing. More threats to shut down the government if Congress (huh?) doesn’t pay for a wall. And, of course, planting and harvesting continues as it always has.

        1. Frank

          Hello noneconomist,

          Yes, Waycross, Georgia. I grew up and still live in rural Georgia not far from Waycross.

          I can retire from my job anytime. About 10 to 15 years ago, I was thinking about what to do in my retirement. I thought about volunteering with the local police department. I thought about assisting the local police dept with traffic control during emergencies–we just had a Cat 5 hurricane last year.

          Anyway, I went on a couple of ride-alongs with the local police department about 10 to 15 years ago. The local police and sheriff departments know where the illegal immigrants live. Local law enforcement ride all the county roads day and night. Local law enforcement go to all areas of the county.

          The policemen told me that the illegal immigrants are afraid of going to the local police for help. The police I rode-along with told me it was not their job to enforce federal immigration law.

          To me, the Trump announcement about rounding up 10 million illegal immigrants is alarming.

          https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-immigration-trump/trump-says-immigration-roundup-will-start-next-week-idUSKCN1TJ2RZ

          Will federal immigration officers ask local law enforcement to assist with locating illegal immigrants?

          Will federal immigration officers go into local homes and ask the residents to show proof of citizenship?

          Is this the beginning of something dark and sinister?

          I dunno. I do not understand how my peeps in South Georgia can be good with mass roundups, or lapankas, by the current federal administration.

          Cheers,
          Frank

      1. Bruce Hall

        pgl read my whole comment. Certainly even you can detect sarcasm. Or am I giving you too much credit?

        But just in case I will explain it for you. The problem was highlighted as occurring between 2013 and 2018. So in order for it to be Trump’s fault, he had to be elected in 2012.

        1. CoRev

          Bruce, give pgl (fishy) a break. He clearly can not or chooses not to read and and UNDERSTAND simple references that don’t reflect his notion of history.

          And yes, sarcasm is way above his ken. Remember fish have small brains.

          1. pgl

            More chirping from someone who has been asked over and over to actually read the GAO report? Is this why you flunked out of high school – chirping and not reading?

    2. pgl

      Menzie wrote an addendum specifically for CoRev but in truth it applies equally to Bruce Hall. The close:

      “Given GAO’s assessment, it would be foolish to dismiss the FY 2017 and FY 2018 decline in received applications and approved applications as merely coincidental. Unless you are a fool, an apologist, or both.”

      OK Brucie – a simple multiple test. Are you (a) a fool; (b) an apologist; or (c) all of the above. No more chirping until you answer this simple question.

      1. CoRev

        Pgl, had you actually read the Report and or my comments you would understand that in FY2016 Obama’s DoD changed the policies concerning LRPs. If you don’t understand the acronym, look it up! It was throughout the Report.

  5. Willie

    The Trump administration is reopening internment camps. Just to prove once again that this administration is beyond morally and ethically bankrupt. The contrast between the honorable people described in the article and the administration couldn’t be starker.

      1. Moses Herzog

        Don’t forget Menzie, Republican James Lankford says they are all adult males of Arnold Schwarzenegger build claiming to be 17 years old. And Republican albino James Lankford knows “the word is out on the street” in Central America because of all of Lankford’s street connections there. Listen to the pudgy white trash talking head Abigail Ogle disseminate Lankford’s Grimm Brothers boogeyman tales:
        https://www.koco.com/article/james-lankford-kendra-horn-paint-different-pictures-as-migrant-children-head-to-fort-sill/27983557

        For the record, I’d bet my net worth and CoRev’s net worth together that pudgy Abigail Ogle is a registered Republican and has been since she became voting age some 20 years ago.

  6. Willie

    One other thing – those Chinese American vets, who were denied citizenship for so long – knew what being American was all about. The current administration doesn’t. i’m personally getting burned out thinking about it and don’t much care who runs against him. We need an American president again, not Nero.

    1. pgl

      Sammy omitted a few key sentences such as this one:

      “Margaret Stock, an immigration attorney who represents recruits and veterans in deportation proceedings, said Pentagon and Homeland Security policies enacted in recent years have accelerated the problem.”

      And this one:

      “Citizenship and Immigration Services offices on Army installations previously fast-tracked naturalization paperwork. But those offices were shuttered in 2018.”

      Of course Sammy is under strict orders from Master Trump not to say how things have gotten worse since January 20, 2017.

      1. pgl

        Hey Sammy – it seems Menzie’s addendum is directed as much at you as at CoRev. Do read before your next apology tour for Trump.

    2. CoRev

      Please, Sammy, never bring up actions other than their service. It’s all that matters. Only the few who served know that their fellows represent bot the good and bad of society. Clearly there are no jails in the services.

      1. pgl

        I bet you have never been to a meeting of Vietnam Vets as your chicken hawk self is still alive. This is the kind of crap that should have the person doing it severely beaten. Now I’m against all forms of violence but your chicken hawk holier than thou garbage is revolting.

        1. CoRev

          Pgl, ooh that hurt: “I bet you have never been to a meeting of Vietnam Vets as your chicken hawk self is still alive.” Thankfully, I never went to Vietnam while in the service. If you served there, thank you for your service. Although in all your many years of commenting, you have never indicated you ever were in the service.

          Inquisitively I ask which of its meanings best fits you? I don’t fit any, no feathers, not my predilection, and served.
          chick·en hawk
          “[chicken hawk]
          NOUN
          US

          a hawk of a type that is reputed to prey on domestic fowl.
          informal
          an older man who seeks younger men or boys as sexual partners.
          informal
          a person who speaks out in support of war yet has avoided active military service.”

          1. pgl

            Nixon ended that awful war when I was still in high school. Yea I’m old but apparently not as old as you are. But then again – I did finish high school. Maybe we should take up a collection so you can finally get your high school degree!

          2. CoRev

            So, Fishy, you are THE CHICKEN HAWK. I served during the Vietnam war, but luckily not in VN.

    3. Moses Herzog

      @ sammy
      It makes a huge difference if they are veterans who committed felony crimes (or violent crimes) or just “roundups” of war veterans in violation of immigration law. It would be interesting to see the numbers compared between pre-January 2017 and post-January 2017 on that, if they are indeed accessible. What % of those deported under each administration had committed violent crimes?? If the percentage of those deported committing violent crimes is higher under President Obama’s watch and other Presidents, then it makes CoRev’s claims ironic on multiple levels, because donald trump’s claim has always been he’s targeting criminals, but the surface facts seem to indicate he is not targeting criminals at all, and just giving blanket treatment to all immigrants regardless of context, including small children

      1. pgl

        You know – Trump is above all of these people who served us our nation in the battle field as he was smart enough to get a doctor to write a fake diagnosis of knee issues. It is obvious that both CoRev and Sammy are fellow chicken hawks which in my book are the lowest of slime.

          1. pgl

            You left out Dick Cheney and George W. Bush. Now who was it that lied to us in order to make that March 2003 mistake invading Iraq?

  7. pgl

    I bet this will get CoRev and Sammy all hot and horny:

    https://news.vice.com/en_us/article/j5wkyg/trump-threatens-mass-deportations-of-undocumented-immigrants

    In a series of tweets Monday night, President Donald Trump threatened mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, and said they could happen as soon as next week. The posts from Trump signaled that a shelved plan for raids in major cities, an idea challenged by former administration officials, could be back on. “Next week ICE will begin the process of removing the millions of illegal aliens who have illicitly found their way into the United States,” Trump tweeted. “They will be removed as fast as they come in.” The Washington Post reported that Trump and his senior immigration adviser, Stephen Miller, “have been prodding Homeland Security officials to arrest and remove thousands of family members” whose cases have been expedited as a part of a plan called the “rocket docket.”

    Oh gee – Stephen Miller has a cool nick name for his latest racist scheme – ROCKET DOCKET.

      1. Moses Herzog

        @ sammy
        Do you think beating the crap out of your wife qualifies as illegal?? Oh wait, those things don’t count when you’re nominated by donald trump for a job. I forgot how this works for you macho MAGA guys who think it shows masculinity to beat the shit out of females:
        https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/18/trump-says-shanahan-is-withdrawing-from-defense-secretary-consideration-1368139

        Always great seeing these MAGA sycophants discussing their great respect for “the law”.

        1. dilbert dogbert

          MOZ: My reading is the son beat the wife with a baseball bat and the wife punched the guy in the nose. Didn’t read that he beat the wife. Who Knows?

          1. pgl

            Actually she beat hubbie. And apparently was abusive to the son. Not sure what set this woman off but I don’t blame this man for not wanting the dirty laundry aired out again.

          2. Moses Herzog

            @ dilbert dogbert
            Well, when the police are called in you know it only happened “once” up to that time correct?? And his son beating her with the bat is probably a very good indication the father had only hit her “once” also yes?? And every time the father hit his wife, it was “just once” and then he went back to his boxing corner according to Marquess of Queensberry rules of beating your wife, right?? We also know police interviews/reports of males with high ranking federal jobs is always going to be tilted to the wife’s view of things, on average right?? The wife skipped town during the court proceedings because he only hit her “once”, is that your best guess on the matter?? God gave you a brain Sir, for some reason. May I suggest you put it to some usage.

          3. Moses Herzog

            @ pgl
            Are you picking up Barkley Junior’s reading comprehension habits?? Or just reading the parts you want to read??
            In court filings following her arrest, Jordinson portrayed her husband as an aloof workaholic with a drinking problem and violent past, saying she had witnessed him in one “bar fight” in November 1999. She also alleged that her husband, whose father was a police chief, had “bragged” that he understood police procedures and knew how to avoid assault charges.

            “Pat told me that if you are going to hit someone you should poke them in the eye or hit them in the stomach, because no marks will be left,” Jordinson wrote in one court filing. “Pat has a bad temper and I am fearful of him.”

            Other portions: “……culminating a period of limbo that included questions about Pat Shanahan’s fitness for the job, his ties to his former employer Boeing and a nearly decade-old allegation of domestic violence.

            Shanahan subsequently announced that he is stepping down as deputy defense secretary. And he took a swipe at recent media attention on his family’s troubled history, which included a 2010 incident in which his then-wife was arrested after each reported being struck by the other.”

            And more from “the great Senator Inhofe: “Describing his conversation with the president, Inhofe added: ‘There are some accusations that were different than they’d been before, and I think that what he shared with me was they both thought it’s going to get worse before it gets better, let’s just bail out.’ ”

            Well, folks, we can guess that parts that Inhofe says were “going to get worse” were only going to be about the wife, yes??
            https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/18/trump-says-shanahan-is-withdrawing-from-defense-secretary-consideration-1368139

            I pray none of you morons are members of the jury in a trial of some domestic abuser when he tells the jury his wife was a drinker and could sometimes give like she got, as she’s apt to have her cranium bashed in some time later after you’ve cleared him of any wrongdoing. (Although this cat sounds like the type who goes more for internal hemorrhaging, from his cop father’s training, Which BTW, is what many serial abusers do. Just like serial liars, serial abusers get good at it. Imagine that…..)

          4. Moses Herzog

            BTW, for some of you who have intermittent phases of personal stupidity— ” I don’t blame this man for not wanting the dirty laundry aired out again.”. If that was the case for Shanahan, you immediately turn down the Secretary of Defense job. IMMEDIATELY turn the job offer down.

            Now, for those of you who are, uuuuuuuuhh, not in the rocket science spectrum area of IQ, if you don’t give a flying F**K about your family and/or your son, you take the offer and say “let’s ride this one out and watch what happens”, which is what Shanahan CHOSE to do.

    1. pgl

      This monthly series shows a lot of month by month variation over the years. If Japan’s exports fall by more than 7% over the entire year – let us know.

      1. Moses Herzog

        I would argue 7.8% (which, by the way, using most people’s methodology on rounding would take you to 8%, not 7%) is still large number. The pattern is most likely to continue. Did you want to tell us what you thought the July number will be—or just give us very “insightful” comments on how yearly data is better than monthly??

  8. CoRev

    Last night was Trump’s 2020 campaign announcement, and there are many references to it being SOLD OUT. What you will not hear is that there were SOLD OUT audiences in many other state venues well distanced from Florida, not Orlando, but outside Florida.

    Consider that in light of his 2016 election history.

    1. 2slugbaits

      CoRev I guess Democrats read books and watch public television while Trump supporters go to rallies. No question that Trump has a lot of diehard supporters. Trump spoke the truth (for once) when he said that his supporters would stick with him even if he shot someone in broad daylight in the middle of 5th Avenue. Trumpism is a kind of religion, with Trump being the messiah who will deliver the downscale “real Americans” from liberal elites and vegan diets. So yes, he can pack in a big crowd in the same way that another famous demagogue could fill a stadium in Nuremberg.

      Consider that Trump lost the popular vote in 2016…and by quite a large margin. The Electoral College gave him the victory in much the same way that the Central Committee of the Socialist Unity Party regularly elected Erich Honecker.

      1. pgl

        Actually a table at the Amway Center was passing out what it called the Mueller Report for attendees to finally read. Of course they passed out the 4 page version signed by Bob Barr.

    2. pgl

      I don’t want to put down the Orlando Magic as I’m a big NBA fan but they play in the Amway Center? Amway is notorious for peddling overpriced junk science to really stupid consumers. Of course this venue was the perfect place for Trump to peddle his lies to his adoring minions. Amway survives as a company because they are indeed a lot of stupid people. The Amway Center last night host 20,000 of them!

    3. pgl

      A couple of takeaways from that event at the Amway Center:

      https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/trump-campaign-kick-off-tpm-watch

      “While the arena was filled to the brim, the Times pointed out that many of the supporters didn’t stay for the entire speech.”

      I guess those that departed earlier were the people who had a semblance of intelligence and realized Trump kept lying to them.

      “During his opening remarks, Trump Jr. mocked former Vice President Joe Biden for announcing last week that if he’s elected, he’d find a cure for cancer. “If government failed you then maybe you’re the problem Joe Biden. It’s not rocket science,” Trump Jr. said. “What was the good one last week? Remember he comes out, well, if you elect me president, I’m going to cure cancer. Wow. Why the hell didn’t you do that over the last 50 years?” Biden’s son, Beau Biden, died in 2015 of brain cancer at the age of 46.”

      It does seem that Don Jr. is as disgusting as his old man!

  9. pgl

    Mark Esper to be the new Defense Secretary. Who is this guy?

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/06/18/who-mark-esper-acting-defense-secretary-replacing-shanahan/1488902001/

    The Senate confirmed Esper as Secretary of the Army on November 15, 2017 on an 89-6 vote…Before his nomination as Secretary of the Army, Esper served as Vice President of Government Relations at Raytheon, a defense contractor. The late Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., expressed some reservations about this, noting in his opening statement during Esper’s confirmation hearing that:

    “Dr. Esper, I would be remiss if I did not reiterate my concerns about the number of nominees from the defense industry filling out the leadership ranks at the Department of Defense. I want to be clear that my reservations grew out of early consultations I had with the administration about potential nominations, including yours and a handful of others that were yet to be nominated.”

    Esper has recused himself from any matters relating to Raytheon. The Hill reported in August 2017 that he made $1.5 million in his last year with Raytheon, and his deferred compensation plan was due to pay out five years after he left Raytheon. Before working for Raytheon, Esper worked for the Aerospace Industries Association, a trade group, as well as the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, the Heritage Foundation, and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Esper has been in politics for some time. He’s worked under Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, the House Armed Services Committee, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and the Senate Government Affairs Committee (now Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs). Esper also worked for Senator Chuck Hagel, who served as President Barack Obama’s Defense Secretary.

    ******
    A political type and a lobbyist? But wait – some good things.

    *********

    Esper holds a doctorate in public policy from George Washington University, where he completed his dissertation in 2008 titled “The role of Congress in the development of the United States’ strategic nuclear forces, 1947–1968.” Esper completed a Masters of Public Administration from Harvard in 1995. He graduated from the U.S. Military Academy in 1986. After finishing his time at the U.S. Military Academy, Esper was commissioned into the Infantry and served in the Regular Army, where he saw action in Operation Desert Shield with the 101st Airborne Division. He retired from the military in 2007 after commanding an airborne company in Europe and serving in the National Guard and Army Reserve. He’s a decorated soldier, too. According to his Secretary of the Army biography, he’s been awarded the Department of Defense Medal for Distinguished Public Service, the Legion of Merit, Bronze Star Medal, the Kuwait Liberation Medal, Kuwait Liberation Medal – Saudi Arabia, the Combat Infantryman Badge, and other decorations.

    1. ilsm

      Raytheon and United Technologies Corp (UTC) are in process of merging………

      I think a defense industry executive brings a measure of reason to the job. The pentagon keeps the trough filled. Wars of choice and blunder get in the way!

  10. CoRev

    Barkley, this was your original “pull my finger” story and claim: “…As the Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo programs proceeded there was a growing problem. The longer they were in space, the further they landed from where they were supposed to. …

    The problem was that the clocks on the ground and the clocks in the space vehicles were on different times, off by about 1/365. The ground was on solar time while the space vehicles were on sidereal time, tied to the stars. These systems were off by one day per year due to the revolution of the earth around the sun. ”

    After being challenged on nearly every point, Barkley has now altered the story to: “To repeat, my late father’s insight did not save Mercury or Gemini as neither of them involved going to the moon, but it did save Apollo, which did involve going to the moon. Really. ” I called BS on the 1st version and continue on this latest version.

    What Barkley is claiming is that the tracking issues associated with Apollo manned flights.The first of which was Apollo 7, and didn’t go to the moon. Apollo 8, the 1st mission to leave Earth for the moon landed ~5K yards from the recovery ship, USS Yorktown.

    NO! The story is BS. But the real issue is Barkley’s inability to show the validity of his climate modeling efforts with successful predictions. As I have said several times, the value of scientific models is its ability to successfully predict. After these many requests to Barkley he has given a BS story about the manned space program.

    Finally Barkley has admitted: “And as for models, well the first climate one I worked on as a low life RA had problems and did not make accurate forecasts. It was run by global warming skeptics led by the late Reid Bryson.” Again having many per reviewed published papers does prove expertise.

    1. Menzie Chinn Post author

      CoRev: Peer review is no guarantee. But having a bunch of blog posts or comments on blogs or even just a bunch of unpublished working papers as a corpus of works is surely a warning sign…

    2. Barkley Rosser

      Woe, CoRev, you stil realy want to claim that my report about my late father’s activities is false. No, it is not. The problem of landing farther and farther from the predicted location was not a fatal problem for manned Mercury and Gemini as they simply circled the earth and then landed in the ocean not where predicted, but landed in the ocean OK and alive. The problem became serious for trying to land on the moon an then returning to earth, where being off by 1/365 would have those going to the moon going into deep space to die. My father had gotten them to fix the problem well before the Apollo program got going. Do you get this, CoRev? This is the truth, unlike your finger pulling medallion.

      I also guess you do not get it that being part of a climate modeling project that made a lot of mistakes was a serious learning experience. This is where and when I learned the basic climatology I konw, since expanded by further study. One learns a lot from mistakes, although you seem to have a problem doing so.

      Let us be clear here: you were claiming that we should not believe IPCC forecasts because you were a great expert on climatology from reading a few books. I said you were not, and nothing you have said since has provided a shred of evidence that you are.

      As it is, I have accurately forecasted quite a few things, which I shall not list beyond the one item I mentioned above, but that also reflects that I do so only pretty carefully and rarely, and with climate I forecast that the future ranges of outcomes are likely to have fat tails as Weitzman forecasts. Do you disagree with that, or do you even know what this is about?

      Oh, and given that Moses H. likes to note how I am Junior, indeed my old man was smarter than I am and has way more things named for him than I do. He has, among a much longer list a Sentence, a Trick, a couple of Theorems, a Sieve, a Matrix, a Number, and a lot more. I only have an Equation, all of these easily found by googling “Rosser [stick in the word].” I am proud to be not as smart as a man who made a successful US moon shot possible.

      Of course pgl should be duly embarrassed to be compared to me for reading ability. I am just awful at that. Maybe you should join Moses in ranting about that, CoRev. You would have at least an example or two to stand on for that deeply serious charge (and I also do not fully proofread my posts, also terrible; pgl should be duly ashamed).

      1. Menzie Chinn Post author

        Barkley Rosser: I feel your pain, in arguing with CoRev. Give it up — none of his published predictions can be proven/disproven (except perhaps his claim that soybean prices will recover to pre-Section 301 levels) because…he has no publications (in fact, he’s/she’s anonymous). He/she used to have blog, but that seems now defunct, so unless people have taken screenshots…

        1. Barkley Rosser

          You are right, Menzie. It certainly has become pointless. I just hope he does not do so much finger pulling that one of them falls off.

          1. baffling

            corev does not understand that even the “raw” data he alludes to which shows a hiatus was actually data processed as well. he has absolutely no idea how to capture truly raw digital or analog data from a sensor and present it in final form for reader consumption. this is why he makes some many absurd remarks with respect to data manipulation. it is simply silly to argue with an idiot.

          2. 2slugbaits

            baffling For many years CoRev kept predicting that the supposed hiatus signaled a turning point and that we would soon be seeing global cooling. That never happened so eventually he started blaming the data on various conspiracies to bias the data. Or sometimes it was because of urban heat islands. Or sometimes it was because of corrupt adjustments to account for wind when new sensors were installed. Then again, sometimes he concedes that there has been warming, but it’s only cyclical…forgetting that it wasn’t all that long ago when he argued that natural cyclic factors would give us global cooling. Sometimes he resorts to a few laughably stupid (deterministic) trend software links. Sometimes were hear about medieval warming versus the current hockey stock. He hasn’t quite worked up a counterargument to explain the northward shift in vegetative zones or the changes in wildlife hibernation patterns, but give it time.

          3. Menzie Chinn Post author

            2slugbaits: Clearly you are hostage to the MSM. The cooling has begun. It’s just being covered up by a vast and secret conspiracy, including obstructionists in the Trump administration, manipulating the data so as to hide the truth.

          4. CoRev

            Baffled and 2slugs, funny but incorrect. Baffled, explain the graph. Incidentally, the did a RE-ANALYSIS of the ocean data. Voila, kaput.

            2sslugs do you still ignore climate cycles? The climatologists and meteorologists don’t . Indeed a recent Weather Gang Summer forecast for
            cooler temps mentions the ocean cycle.

          5. baffling

            corev, i still do not understand your complaints. the data you insist is correct has still been processed. it simply has been determined it was not processed completely correctly. so it has been revised. once again, you do not understand the steps required to go from raw sensor data in voltage form to data comprehended by a reader. if you had done any experimental work throughout your lifetime, this would be apparent. but alas, you are simply another monday morning armchair quarterback.

          6. CoRev

            As Baffled says, the original data was wrong and required processing (re-analysis) to make it correct. He then gets wrapped around the axle about raw data processing.

            Just note that he does not refute the validity of the cart. He can not because it was the data available for that period, and then changed to make it better. Better in whose eyes/opinion?

            The HIATUS still stands in that data. Much to Menzie’s, Baffled’s, Barkley’s and 2 slugs’ chagrine.

          7. CoRev

            Menzie, raw or processed (IIRC his term not adjusted) data, neither he nor you have refuted the existence of the HIATUS in the chart.

          8. baffling

            corev, menzie is correct. i was very specific in my statement for a reason. as i have lectured to you before, but obviously to no avail, all raw data is recorded as voltage from a sensor, at which point a calibration is applied to the data to convert it into something that humans can read and comprehend. that calibration was simply refined from the previous publication. when you make your absurd statements about “wrong” data, it simply illustrates how stoooopid you are with respect to sensor data acquisition and analysis. your mistakes are a combination of intentional misleading in addition to shear stooooopidity.

      2. pgl

        Yes I suck at reading CoRev’s comments. Of course I do not even try to Excel at deciphering incessant gibberish.

      3. CoRev

        I’l repeat my evidence: “After being challenged on nearly every point, Barkley has now altered the story to: “To repeat, my late father’s insight did not save Mercury or Gemini as neither of them involved going to the moon, but it did save Apollo, which did involve going to the moon. Really. ” I called BS on the 1st version and continue on this latest version.

        What Barkley is claiming is that the tracking issues associated with Apollo manned flights.The first of which was Apollo 7, and didn’t go to the moon. Apollo 8, the 1st mission to leave Earth for the moon landed ~5K yards from the recovery ship, USS Yorktown….”

        And yet the 1st Apollo manned mission that left the Earth’s orbit landed WITHIN SIGHT OF ITS TARGET, ~5K yards. It was saved by your father: “but it did save Apollo, which did involve going to the moon.”?

        How many more story changes will it take, before you admit it is, at best, an exaggeration? Pull our fingers.

        1. Barkley Rosser

          CoRev,

          You are not only a lying troll, you are a complete a**hole [edited MDC]. You keep misrepresenting what I said. Pretty clearly you are too incompetent yourself to have done anything worthy of getting a medallion for anything. Or else, more likely, just a consciously lying creep.

          Again, the issue was clocks on ground and in space out of kilter, which meant that vehicle in space got more and more off its planned orbit over time. Nothing to do with tracking. You were the idiot who said they could not track the vehicles. I never said any such thing. You are just lying, you worthless piece of shit. Do you think you ate Donald Trump?

          The problem was fixed well before the Apollo mission ever got going, as I have repeatedly said, so it is completely unsurprising that when the first manned Apollo mission went, it landed OK on the moon and where it was supposed to when it returned to earth. Without my old man getting them to synchronize the clocks, they never would have made it to the moon.

          Do you get it now, CoRev? Or are you going to make up yet another altered BS claim as to what I have said here? Sorry, you do not get to do that. Only Donald Trump gets to lie nearly 11,000 times and get away with it.

          Oh, and I suspect you are running out of fingers to pull. Will make it hard to drive that Belarus tractor you probably can no longer afford.

          Oh, and before you accuse my late father of lying, since he is the one who told me this, I suggest you go read a couple of his books on space travel and rockets. Better reading than that tripe on climate by Lindzen you like to cite.

          Oh, and when you claimed to know more about climate than I do, and Menzie pointed out that I have a public track record regarding my knowledge of such matters and you do not, you suddenly accused him of trying to compare dick sizes. Does this mean that not only are you pulling your fingers off, but you have pulled off your you know what out of frustration with it? (Sorry, Menzie, but I just could not resist… :-))

          1. Menzie Chinn Post author

            Barkley Rosser: Since CoRev does not have the courage of his convictions (he *could* give us his true name that he has published his work under, and list the medallion he received, so we could verify all his assertions), you should not trouble yourself with his comments.

          2. Barkley Rosser

            I apologize, Menzie. If he comes back with yet another variation on his made up stories, I shall do my best to just let it pass.

          3. CoRev

            Barkley, for the most part I have actually quoted you, so this claim is another stretch: “You are not only a lying troll, you are a complete a**hole [edited MDC]. You keep misrepresenting what I said.” I kept your preamble to use as a clarifying statement of your story changes. Your final version: “Again, the issue was clocks on ground and in space out of kilter, which meant that vehicle in space got more and more off its planned orbit over time. Nothing to do with tracking. (bunch of expletive BS)

            The problem was fixed well before the Apollo mission ever got going, as I have repeatedly said, so it is completely unsurprising that when the first manned Apollo mission went, it landed OK on the moon and where it was supposed to when it returned to earth.”
            BTW, “… so it is completely unsurprising that when the first manned Apollo mission went, it landed OK on the moon and where it was supposed to when it returned to earth.” was Apollo 7 which stayed in earth orbit for 163 cycles, and Apollo 11 was the 1st Apollo mission to land on the moon.
            Your 2nd version: “To repeat, my late father’s insight did not save Mercury or Gemini as neither of them involved going to the moon, but it did save Apollo, which did involve going to the moon. Really. ”
            Your original version: ” As the Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo programs proceeded there was a growing problem. The longer they were in space, the further they landed from where they were supposed to. Yeah, CoRev, this is the actual physical modeling, and Houston was messing up. It was my old man who figured it out and then they got it fixed.”

            After being challenged on his story details, Barkley has morphed it from solving a “Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo programs” to “did not save Mercury or Gemini …, but it did save Apollo,” and finally “The problem was fixed well before the Apollo mission ever got going,…”. To which version am I supposedly misrepresenting what Barkley said?

            Moreover, Barkley has called me a liar (and more) several times, but this claim is just absurd: “You were the idiot who said they could not track the vehicles. ” Really?? I made just the opposite claim: “All of these missions were tracked from launch through re-entry. They were also in REAL TIME voice and data communications. with a world -wide tracking and data collection network.

            By Apollo the tracking and communication network were perfected and was able to track and communicate all the way to the moon, except for when the vehicle passed behind it.”

            Barkley, you ran smack into one of my areas of both knowledge and experience. You are just WRONG, WRONG, WRONG. Provided the part of your story about your father finding the difference in clocks is true, your interpretation of its importance is way, way exaggerated. These clocks are synchronized before lift off, and a difference of milliseconds is noted almost immediately. A time drift would be corrected before lift off. The data garnered on this new and conceptual engineering on the early mostly unmanned missions was far more important in the earliest days than your father identifying a POTENTIAL time drift problem. There were many rocket launches used as conceptual test beds. Mercury and, Gemini had specific equipment and concept tests in preparation for manned orbital flight. Tracking in real time from the earth-based command centers obviates the need for independent clocks.

            Any time you want to have a rational discussion over how sidereal time is used on space vehicles, let me know. Yes, it is necessary. BTW, quit being a p*** [edited MDC].

            You can ask me how I know this, but that would be just another indication of your inability to read and understand comments. You’re hopelessly lost on this.

          4. CoRev

            Menzie, I do apologize over my use of an expletive. I guess i was confused by the apparent acceptance of some level by Barkley’s in his comment. After checking his original comment I found it uncorrected: ”
            Barkley Rosser
            June 20, 2019 at 9:26 am

            CoRev,

            You are not only a lying troll, you are a complete a$$hole….”

            You might want to do that. I will certainly be more careful in the future, both when copying and commenting.

          5. CoRev

            Menzie, I guess the point was too obscure that one of those incidences was a COPY OF BARKLEY”S comment and found that you ignored his use.

    3. pgl

      Barkley’s 200 publications over his life time v. 200 absurdly stupid rants from the CoRev just today. OK CoRev – you win. What did you win? Stupidest Man Alive. Congratulations!!!

  11. Erik Poole

    Guys, you are starting to behave worse than Trump and his MAGA supporters. Come on now. A modicum of civility, please.

    —————————————————

    A common theme of the Trump administration is the negative impact of its policies and rhetoric on human capital and social capital. Here is an example that I found particularly disturbing. Normally, I would expect USA’s loss to be a gain for Canada but in light of the most unfortunate arrest of Huawei’s CFO Meng Wanzhou that is unlikely to happen.

    The U.S. Is Purging Chinese Cancer Researchers From Top Institutions

    The NIH and the FBI are targeting ethnic Chinese scientists, including U.S. citizens, searching for a cancer cure. Here’s the first account of what happened to Xifeng Wu.

    By Peter Waldman, Bloomberg Businessweek

    1. Moses Herzog

      @ Erik Poole
      Oh great wiseman from the East, this has already been posted on the Econbrowser site. Leave the frankincense and myrrh over by the Farmer’s Almanac on the bookcase.

    2. baffling

      erik, the events you are referring to have occurred at md anderson in houston. been following it a bit, and i will say it is a bit complex. there does appear to be some targeting involved. on the other hand, there also appears to be some inappropriate behavior on the part of some researchers as well. that said, their behavior does not appear to be of the scale to force a job loss or loss of citizenship. it should mostly involve improved training, ethics and possible probationary action. i do think there is a bit of targeting going on, and changing of the rules in the middle of the game, explicitly towards the chinese researchers. this is very unfortunate for the scientific community, and is beginning to politicize academic and scientific research in a negative way.

  12. baffling

    who knew! corev is a gentleman farmer, global climate expert and now rocket scientist all in one. i guess i have been wrong in calling him an idiot.

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