Hit that value earlier today, before dropping to 42% (recession in Trump’s first term, that is)
Source: PredictIt, accessed 8/24/2019 2pm Pacific.
Source: PredictIt, accessed 8/24/2019 2:15pm Pacific.
My estimates of recession probability, using plain vanilla term spread model, and augmented with a credit spread, estimated over the 1986-2019M08 period (assuming the rest of August is like what transpired through August 23):
Figure 1: 12 month ahead probability from probit regression on 10yr-3mo spread, (blue), and same augmented with BAA-Treasury 10yr spread. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Forecast period shaded light green. Source. NBER and author’s calculations.