Winning: Midwest Manufacturing Employment

Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin drop, as US manufacturing employment rises.

Figure 1: Manufacturing employment in US (blue), and aggregate of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (red), both in logs, 2018M12=0. Source: BLS, author’s calculations.



25 thoughts on “Winning: Midwest Manufacturing Employment

  1. pgl

    Shhh. More fake news. Remember if Trump is not re-elected – then we lose all of our 401(K) funds. That statement of his last night made the 1984 Morning in America commercial look honest. I did not think Republicans could go lower than Team Reagan did some 35 years ago but Trump proved me wrong.

  2. Moses Herzog

    We all knew the loss of all those Foxconn jobs was going to hit Wisconsin hard, didn’t we??

    Thinking of all the free meals, expensive alcohol, and envelopes stuffed with cash Republican state lawmakers could have had as they robbed the Wisconsin state budget for “the job creators” really makes me feel melancholy right now.

    I don’t know what the problem was in keeping them, many of Wisconsin’s Republican lawmakers had a visual presentation just underneath their capitol building desks that clearly exhibited the fiscal stimulus Foxconn was creating:

    1. Rick Stryker


      Judging from your anatomical references to me on a previous post, I obviously hit a nerve. You can’t blame Barkley for giving you the grade you deserved. Think of him as a scribe. He just recorded the grade you told him you deserved through your wrong answers. And you shouldn’t resent him just because he’s much smarter than you are and much better educated.

      What class did you take from him? Econ 101? I bet that was a hard one!!

      1. Moses Herzog

        Wow. You really know how to hurt a guy. I may not be able to get up for several days after that barrage.

        I feel honored to draw your fire. This means I have finally hit the Ed Hanson, CoRev, Politic Rick LOSER trifecta. What’s the prize??

  3. Moses Herzog

    Now, when we do this for poor white trash, blacks, other minorities (or even pathetically dumb soybeans farmers with a MAGA hat on) we call call this “government social welfare payments”. When we give freebie taxpayer money to wealthy white businessmen (in this case it would have been wealthy foreign businessmen) we call it “incentives”, “subsidies”, or “investment tax credits” and they turn right around and stick it in their own pocket with self-chosen salary levels. Here is what it looked like in the Foxconn deal that donald trump was “saving” America with (from the Upjohn report):
    “As described in this memo, either the original Foxconn incentive, or scaled back versions of the original offer, are far greater than typical U.S. incentives. Depending upon the incentive offer’s details—and indeed the devil’s in the details—the Foxconn incentives per job, compared to the average investment/job credit offer by U.S. states, is 7 to 12 times greater. The present value of the Foxconn incentive offer, in 2019 dollars, per job, ranges from $172K per job to $290K per job under various scenarios. Average U.S. incentives are $24K per job. Wisconsin incentive in the past have averaged $28K per job.
    The Foxconn incentive offer is also greater per job than offers accepted by Amazon. The Amazon New York offer was, depending upon the ultimate job creation, between $31K and $46K per job. Virginia’s offer to Amazon was, contingent upon the ultimate size of this facility, between $10K and $13K per job.”

    That donald trump and Scott Walker really know how to work hard “so America doesn’t get screwed by China anymore”, don’t they?? The two foxes telling all those dumb Wisconsin Republican hens they’ve got this one covered.

  4. Moses Herzog

    One of the better breakdowns I have seen on donald trump’s tariffs and donald trump’s trade war, which is making American farmers accept socialist welfare payments from the government.

    I hope the MAGA socialist welfare farmers enjoy the food and shelter that American taxpayers now provide them with.

    MAGA socialist welfare farmers cry crocodile tears about these USDA/MAGA socialist welfare payments on the internet with their red MAGA dunce caps on. It’s very strange though, I haven’t read or seen a headline of a single MAGA farmer sending his USDA/MAGA welfare payment back to the federal government.

    Meanwhile….. Pelosi is prepping Joe Biden on post-stroke rehab exercises.

  5. AS

    The state GDP change for 2019Q1 looks pretty good from the BEA for the three states mentioned, as well as the coincident indicators from Philadelphia Fed. for PA, not as good for MI and WI. Using the three month average for the coincident indicators (if that is proper), the coincident indicators look pretty good for 2019Q2 in PA, not so good for MI and seem ok for WI.
    MI 2019Q1 GDP 2.6%
    PA 2019Q1 GDP 2.9%
    WI 2019Q1 GDP 2.9%

    MI 2019Q2 average index change was -1.45%
    PA 2019Q2 average index change was 3.21%
    WI 2019Q2 average index change was 1.81%

    Will the GDP in PA stay strong enough for Trump to overcome weakness in manufacturing? MI looks like trouble for him. WI may also be trouble. I am open for correction, just don’t use too big of a club.

    1. pgl

      More from this link:

      “Mining for the nation increased 26.5 percent, after increasing 38.0 percent in the fourth quarter. This industry was the leading contributor to growth in several states, including the three fastest growing states of West Virginia, Texas, and New Mexico.”

      Of course mining is really volatile so this could quickly change.

      1. AS

        I should have looked at the polls, thanks for the link. I was trying to see if there was any evidence on the other side of the manufacturing data, not to be argumentative, but just to try to see if there was any data “on the other hand”.

    2. Moses Herzog

      @ AS
      Who will use a club against this blog’s most promising Jedi apprentice?? You know, as time goes on I feel better about being suspended from my twitter account day by day:

      Of course, mine was a little different, I was speaking up for Anti-r*pe activists towards a female sports journalist who was a lapdog for Baylor University board of regents, President (Kenneth Starr) etc, and Twitter wasn’t going to have ANY of that.

      We will pull you down by your arm into the sewage muck eventually AS [Does my best evil guy cackle]

  6. Bruce Hall

    As the national demand for motor vehicles goes, so goes the manufacturing activity in Michigan. Sales have been flat to declining since 2015; Ford has cut production of virtually all passenger cars (Mustang excepted). This may be corrected as new vehicle offerings come on line.

    Regardless, Michigan’s total manufacturing employment changed from 634.6K (April) to 634.4K (July) which is probably statistically no change and still higher than one year ago.

      1. pgl

        She did so well that dad is buying her a car – a Chevy of course to pump up those sales of cars made in Michigan. USA! MAGA!

    1. pgl

      Anyone who would write:

      “This may be corrected as new vehicle offerings come on line.”

      Apparently cannot check the notes such as this one:

      “Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate”

      Or maybe he did but he has no clue what this means. Typical!

      Annual sales have never been that much about 17.5 million units but Bruce “no relationship to Robert” Hall sees a Detroit boom. I guess when he puts on his MAGA hat, his forecasting abilities became the best ever!

    2. pgl

      2000 jobs lost since April and 4000 jobs lost since February and Bruce no relationship to Robert Hall calls that statistically insignificant. Hey Brucie – I bet you do not go out much which is a good thing. The 4000 guys who lost their jobs might not appreciate being called insignificant.

    3. pgl

      Since Ford was mentioned, I decided to augment Bruce Hall’s very limited research skills by checking the 10-K filing for Ford, which has a neat chart entitled “Retail Sales, Industry Volume, and Market Share”.

      It shows the same information on industry volume for the U.S. on an annual basis but does so for other regions as well. This figure rose from 2016 to 2017 in Europe’s EU21 but fell in 2018. Same story for China except sales to China were a lot higher (this is all before the Trump trade wars). Overall volume therefore increased in 2017 but retreated in 2018.

      Ford and GM are multinationals so showing industry volume for one nation is sort of incomplete. But we are talking about Bruce “no relationship to Robert” Hall!

  7. Moses Herzog

    This video captures a major reason why things like Foxconn (nevermind the election of Walker) get passed through the Wisconsin state legislature even though they are in the paper etc. How do things like Foxconn get passed legislatively when they are damaging to the majority of taxpayers by an overwhelming margin?? Who owns the major papers in Wisconsin?? In fact, I don’t know, but I can make a good wager, as they are nearly always the same parties in every state. I know they are in mine, where for the most part, we have one statewide paper that bullies their opinions upon EVERYTHING

  8. pgl

    Kudlow the Klown was on the TV this morning:

    “I don’t see a recession at all. Second of all, the Trump pro-growth program, which I believe has been succeeding lower tax rates, bid rollback of regulations, energy opening, trade reform, we’re going to stay with that. We believe that’s the heart of the free enterprise. We want an incentive-oriented supply-side economy, providing opportunities for everybody across the board.”

    This was followed by a few lies and this nonsense:

    “What’s wrong with a little optimism, Dana?”

    First of all real fixed investment – both business and residential – have started declining. We never got that enormous increase in investment demand they promised to get that tax cut for the rich. Secondly, real net exports of goods and services have hit almost negative $980 billion per year. We were told that Trump’s trade policy would eliminate the trade deficit but it has risen substantially. But how good is Kudlow at economic forecasting?

    “5 Times Trump’s Favorite Economic Advisor Has Been Spectacularly Wrong About the Economy”

    Check out these classics!

  9. pgl

    Kudlow the Klown:

    “There’s no recession coming. The pessimistas were wrong. It’s not going to happen. At a bare minimum, we are looking at Goldilocks 2.0. (And that’s a minimum). Goldilocks is alive and well. The Bush boom is alive and well. It’s finishing up its sixth consecutive year with more to come. Yes, it’s still the greatest story never told.”

    When he said it: December 2007
    What happened next: The global financial crisis, followed by the worst recession since the Great Depression.

  10. pgl

    “Bruce HallAugust 17, 2019 at 6:02 pm
    As the national demand for motor vehicles goes, so goes the manufacturing activity in Michigan.”

    How dumb is this statement. We may need to augment Brucie’s name to Bruce “no relationship to Robert Single Statistic” Hall. This association might hold if there was no international trade in the automobile sector and if all cars were made in Michigan. But note American consumers buy cars from multinationals such as BMW, Mercedes, Honda, and Toyota etc. Some of these cars are imported from abroad. Some are made in the good old USA but not in Michigan. Try the Southeast.

    And assembly of the final vehicle is just a small part of the value chain. Components, spare parts, etc. A lot of what is assembled in Michigan is actually the components from other places including places like Mexico.

    You would think anyone reading an economist blog would know this but not Single Statistics Bruce. And readers of this blog should know one could turn to Census data on exports and imports:

    Let’s see back in 2014, we exported $159.8 billion but imported $328.6 billion if we include cars, trucks, components, spare parts etc. By 2017, these exports had slipped a wee bit to $157.9 billion while imports had risen to $358.2 billion. Yea I know Single Statistic Bruce would call this rise in the sector trade deficit “statistically insignificant” – which is another one of his really stupid statements. But note exports fell to $97.5 billion while imports rose to $372.2 billion. That is a serious fall off in our sector net exports.

    But of course Single Statistic Bruce thinks all he needed to do was to look at the number of cars being sold in the U.S. over time. I think we have a new nominee for dumbest comment ever!

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