In other words, the sugar high fades. Brad Setser has noted how weak nonresidential fixed investment has been, despite the TCJA. It looks worse when looking at net — rather than gross — investment.
Figure 1: Gross nonresidential fixed investment (blue, left log scale), and estimated net nonresidential fixed investment (brown, right log scale), all in billions Ch. 2012$, SAAR. Net investment calculated by subtracting quadratically interpolated annual capital consumption, and assuming annualized 0.08% increase throughout 2019. Light orange denotes TCJA in full effect, very light orange denotes TCJA application to equipment. Source: BEA and author’s calculations.