Air Freight, Global Supply Chains, and Sensitivity to China

Some pictures to envision the impact of covid-19: (1) lots of US int’l trade goes by air, (2) and US sensitivity to disruption to air freight from China, by sector.

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics.

Goldman-Sachs attempts to discern the impact from air freight disruption to supply chains.

Source: Goldman Sachs, “US Daily: Chinese Factory Shutdowns and the US Consumer (Hill),” 14 February 2020.




4 thoughts on “Air Freight, Global Supply Chains, and Sensitivity to China

  1. 2slugbaits

    So if I’m reading this right, G-S is saying that instead of (say) a 2% growth rate next quarter, we should expect a 1.8% growth rate. That’s not catastrophic, but I suspect it understates the total effect of Covid-19. We should expect China’s other trading partners to feel similar effects, and those effects should impact the US economy. For example, if Sino-Japanese or Sino-Korean trade in manufacturing components used in US production also dries up, then I would expect a second order supply shock to the US economy. I wonder if whatever story G-S is telling its customers matches what G-S executives are saying internally.

  2. Steven Kopits

    GS also says apparent oil demand down is down 4 mbpd in China.

    Lowe’s and Home Depot in Princeton sold out of masks this afternoon .

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