It’s been interesting to me to see how various economic groups assess the outlook. Here are a select few:
While rapid growth is projected for the end of the year, it’s of interest to note that output will still be below the pre-Covid19 trajectory.
It must be an unenviable task to forecast output in these times. Thinking about it a bit, on top of the usual challenges, these forecasts have to be conditioned on big question marks (so known unknowns as well and unknown unknowns).
- Scientific unknowns about degree of contagiousness, whether there’s seasonality, the ease of reinfection
- Political unknowns such as commitment to developing an infrastructure to test, track the epidemic, so that the economy can be restarted without large increments to fatalities.
- Unknowns regarding how the health infrastructure has been degraded by the scattershot administrative response, thereby constraining the readiness for restart
- Unknowns regarding administrative capacity of a Federal government that has many policy level positions still vacant.
A Vox article on the difficulties of forecasting, even w/o a pandemic, here.