Comparing CDC tabulated Covid-19 fatalities, excess fatalities, and unofficial data (an update to this post).
Figure 1: Weekly fatalities due to Covid-19 as reported to CDC for weeks ending on indicated dates (black), excess fatalities calculated as actual minus expected (teal), fatalities as tabulated by The Covid Tracking Project/Atlantic (dark red), IHME forecast (light red) . Source: CDC 7/15/2020 vintage, Covid Tracking Project/Atlantic accessed 7/18/2020, IHME forecast of 7/14/2020, and author’s calculations.
Two observations: (1) the unofficial count is rising; (2) recent weeks’ (about a month’s worth) CDC data are subject to severe undercounting, so inferring recent trends on the basis of CDC data is not advisable.
From week ending February 22nd through the week ending June 13th, the cumulative CDC fatality tally is 119.2 thousand. Cumulative excess fatalities is 149.9 thousand, implying an additional 30.7 thousand Covid-19 fatalities above the official tally.