My base scenario is a slow recovery. However, I have always viewed — given the sheer incompetence of the Trump administration — the possibility of a double dip recession as a real one. Today, Diane Swonk lays out the case:
Chart 1 lays out two scenarios for the economy over the next six months. We are down to about a 50/50 chance of the economy slipping again in the fourth quarter. This is despite an expected $1.5 trillion in additional aid from Congress. Another downturn would push out the
time it takes to reach the pre-crisis peak in economic performance by six months, relative to our base case.…
The White House has issued several executive orders intended to partially replace benefits,
cut payroll taxes and reinstate moratoriums on evictions, but little appears actionable. The lapse in unemployment benefits alone will take weeks (if not longer) to restore, while evictions have already started. The level of extra unemployment benefits is expected to be cut from $600 to $400 per week …A drop in payrolls could come as soon as August when the remainder of the funds tied to the Payroll Protection Program (PPP) loans and grants are set to run out.
Swonk gives 50/50 chance to each of the below scenarios.
That’s the same logic that that induced me to say today:
“We tried to skip over the step of getting the infection rates to manageable levels,” he continues. “We are in what I feared, and many people feared, which was a sort of stop-and-go policy. We tried to get the economy going, but we don’t have the prerequisites in place.”
…
…without a new federal recovery package, “what we’ve seen so far is just a prelude and it will get a lot worse,” he warns. “You’ve got withdrawal of stimulus, and lots of uncertainty for lots of people, and that’s not conducive to people spending.”
Ah, the possible “Wiggly W.”
wouldn’t politics mean some sort of stimulus to prevent such a scenario in an election year?
Not Trampis:
In the alternate universe where we (the US) have sane and rational leadership from both major parties, yes. Unfortunately, we have Donnie and the Sycophants in charge of the Republican Party, so no sanity, no rationality are available from that side.
@ Not Trampis
Not if you want to choke off the poor and make them desperate to work during a pandemic. Two choices. Choice 1 Get infected with a virus which could kill you or vulnerable members of your family. Choice 2 get evicted from your home, be replaced at your job, become homeless.
This is why Republicans for the first time ever are saying positive things about public schools—businesses can’t get cheap labor unless they have public school teachers to babysit their workers’ children.
BTW, I think we found out before Bruce was getting some of his weirdest data from fruitcake websites like Q-anon?? I think Bruce may be getting all his Sweden praise from ZeroHedge blog:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/swedens-success-kryptonite-lockdown-and-mask-advocates
Never once does the ZeroHedge author mention the fact here (and anyone can correct me if I got this wrong) Sweden is now 8th highest in the world on deaths per 100k of population:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
Mexico now has the third highest number of deaths from COVID-19, 52,000+ deaths and appears to be following the MAGA/donald trump virus rule: Act like nothing is happening and pretend the virus does not exist, even as the person standing next to you becomes deathly ill.
commenter noneconomist (a moniker he gives himself, I respect 98% of his contributions to this blog) reminds me it was “JBH” that made the weird comments related to “Q-anon”, proving not only is noneconomist’s mind probably more agile than mine, but his memory is better too.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/10/us/politics/biden-vp-pick.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Everyone regularly reading the comments section of this blog knows who I’m pulling for. I see only two good candidates here: Rice and Val Demings. With Rice far outshining any other candidate (white or otherwise). If he chooses anyone other than a black female the intro/roll out will turn into a drastic failure. And from my viewpoint those two women are the only two black females of those mentioned in media reports with the resume and mental dexterity to do the job well, and be able to perform the job if Biden becomes temporarily ill. The other choices fall way short and only meet the requirements if hitting the SJW quota.
I’m hoping Biden’s wife has his ear, because I have this strange instinctive feeling that is the only chance in hell either Rice or Demings get the nod—as I don’t think he would come to that solution on his own. And I mean that in the most positive way towards Biden’s wife and her judgment.
And I wish to add, though I think Bernie would have been the better nominee, one consolation of this whole mess is, we’re getting Biden’s wife in the deal, and I think she’s going to be there to guide him the right way if Joe Biden “falters” a little on the way. So I take a lot of mental comfort in that fact in this current period of time.
“I see only two good candidates here: Rice and Val Demings.”
Certainly the best two candidates. I’m hoping it will be Rice but Demings would be a good choice. We may hear today.
We have heard. Kamala Harris will be our next Vice President.
Rice has never been a politician. It was always too bigger risk.
She can be secretary of state
Val Demings? Moses, you sneer t “Copmala” Harris while Deming is just plain “Cop” and basically nothing else, and she did not deal with reported excess police brutality during her three years as chief. That is her record, aside from making some not half bad speeches during the Trump impeachment hearing. She is not remotely presidential. Three of them are, even though you have wasted huge amounts of time making absolutely idiotic and worthless attacks on two of them, namely Harris and Warren. I like Rice, but she has serious baggage, which I shall not spout here. i am fine with any of those three, but Demings is simplyi not remotely qualified. Those three are, all three of them, very much so.
“I like Rice, but she has serious baggage”
Benghazi? I don’t think so. As you know – I put up my case for Dr. Rice over at Econospeak. Now Senator Harris would be a decent choice but my preference on this has been clearly stated.
It does not matter now, pgl, but no, it is not Benghazi, although the Trumpists certainly would have gone nuts over that. There is real serious stuff with her. If you insist, I shall put it out there, but I would say go look at Dana Milbank’s column on her fairly recently. But this is now old hat. I think she should have one of the top foreign policy positions in the Biden-Harris admin, assuming they win.
There is serious policy dirt, but I think the bottom line for Biden in terms of the VP decision was not any of that but the fact that she had never run for office. He was on record many months ago favoring somebody who had run for president, which certainly ruled Rice out. The hard fact is the VP candidate has to run hard and run well, and Rice has never even walked, while Harris has clearly done it very seriously. I think that was the bottom line on the VP choice, as indeed I think it did get down to Harris vs Rice.
Harris will tear Pence to shreds when they debate. Good choice,despite the long whining by Moses.
Harris will be a good president when Biden decides not to run for a second term. I’m happy she’s the VP pick. She also has the advantage of being extremely well prepared and tough as nails. She’s not especially charismatic, which is not a help for Biden, who isn’t charismatic, either. But, they are boy extremely competent. Competence would be a big improvement over what we have now.
I agree Barkes in fact the VP ‘debates’ will be much better than the Presidential’ debates’ between two really awful ‘debaters however debates do not matter
I repeat again Rice had no experience as a politician.
Far too bigger risk when the heat is on
You got your wish, Copmala got the job. Going to be funny watching this one. Maybe not funny for the country, but it’s going to be hilarious watching people like you go “but…but…. but….” when blacks stay home in November because they have no interest in voting for an oreo who makes it a personal hobby to put blacks in prison. But you got your dream team, Mr. Senile and Mrs. Race Traitor. That’s a winning recipe right there. If the Democrats are going to lose, it might as well be entertaining watching idiots like you squirm in your own seat on your own wishes.
“when blacks stay home in Movember.” OK, Moses, time to stop tolerating raging stupidity and ignorance on this out of you. Just how many black women do you know? I know quite a few. Your forecast on this point is just totally silly. Sorry about this, but it really is time you got real.
The women I listened to so far are very excited to support Harris to be our first women VP. The black men – the same. On the politics – this was the right choice. Now as far as leading the nation out of the deep hole Trump has buried us in – Susan Rice must be in the White House in some capacity.
@ Barkley Junior
I probably do know and have known many more blacks than a man who brags about his family’s confederacy members, and hangs his hat in Virginia, and chooses to work at an institution named after a slave owner, who in the latter stages of his life questioned whether African Americans were sharp enough to live an independent life outside of slavery. Probably WAY more than that person.
It’s typical of a man who when blacks are suffering in prison and by police murder and police abuse everyday, worries about inanimate objects (statues) being torn down as his major worry of the day, that he thinks “I have blacks who are my friends” is a good argument in the year 2020.
But it’s like you Barkley, the sad senile, resentful man that you are, when you get your way on a woman who was willing to cart blacks off for minor crimes, let them rot in jails for years over those minor crimes, and throw away the key on DNA evidence that would have set them free and she becomes the VP candidate, you choose to cast personal insults on a person who has boatloads more class on racial issues than you’ll ever have.
But you have shown over and over again on this blog what you are about, you are about insulting others and a game of putdowns to protect your own apparent inferiority complex. But Junior, your bravado is doing nothing to hide the vacuous cabin you call your soul. Profs Hamilton etc can humor you on this, I will not.
Again, she was polling 7% in her home state of California before she quit like a loser, because she knew herself that it would hurt MORE staying in the race and getting 7% in the state that knows her best than quitting like she did.
One thing I might add for the extreme שׁוֹטֶה of Shenandoah Valley. My familiarity with blacks, including attending a grade school that was over half black students and about 25% black teachers might explain why I knew most blacks wouldn’t gravitate to Kamala Harris before anyone else on this blog apparently “got the clue” that blacks don’t just vote for candidates “just because they are black”. Now I know Junior and Junior’s great grandpappy Simon Legree might have a hard time deciphering that one, as did apparently everyone else on this blog at the time. But because I have no problem intermingling in blacks, instead of monologizing from “on high” about them, I figured out that “real complex” “Matryoshka doll puzzle” before braindead in Harrisonburg.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2019/07/of-sugar-highs-uncertainty-and-recession#comment-227560
Barkley Junior said “Last poll in Iowa has her second to Warren, with Biden in third place and Bernie in fourth. Warren and Bernie clearly have an edge in NH, but Harris is likely to do well in next-up SC. You really do not know the order of the races do you, Mose? SC will be the serious Harris-Biden showdown.”
For those not paying attention Kamala Harris dropped out of the race before the SC primary. Strangely, Barkley Junior’s “deep knowledge” on black culture did not foresee this failure in Copmala Harris getting the black vote, even in her own home state.
Moses,
On me, I shall only repeat something said previously, that I got an FBI file for my civil rights activities back in 1963, same year your hero, Bernie, go arrested for his (I managed to avoid getting arrested).
Regarding your throwaway lines I shall provide a more thorough response to slams from Gabbard and you on Harris’s prosecutorial record, keeping in mind that the politics of a Black woman being a DA or AG was that they had to enforce law and oreder, and when she ran for AG she was attacked for not having brought the death penalty on an a man who killed a cop, in line with her opposition to the death penalty, and that was her closest race, just barely squeaking through, with that point a major issue.
So, Gabbard mentioned four issues in in the second debate, which pretty much punctured Harris’s Prez balloon, pushing her from beatin Biden in an Iowa poll to falling as llow as 7% in cal before she withdrew in early December, a brilliant strategic move that set her up to be selected for the VP nod she now has.
Discussion of the four items Gabbard raised comes from an August 1, 2019 story by Chris Nichols in Politifact.
1) Gabbard made much of her putting people in jail for marijuana, something you have gone on about a lot. Indeed, from 2011 to 2016 1,883 people were sent to jail for pot, although those numbers fell throughout this time from 817 in 2011 to 137 in 2016. She took no position when she ran for Senate, but has since come out for pot legalization. She was enforcing the law as it stood then, as was her job, and there seems to be no evidence that she went out of her way to target any group on this. Regarding her laughing, this was not about putting people in jail but about her own having smoked pot, which apparently amounted to having one joint in the far past, “and I inhaled” she said at time, drawing a contrast with Bill Clinton’s silly remark about this. Maybe some hypocrisy there, but she certainly would have been massively criticized if she had not enforced the law as it was then.
2) She supposedly blocked evidence that would have feed a (Black) man from death row, one Kevin Cooper, convicted in 1983 for a quadruple murder. She did not block an appeal for testing he made after she became AG, but the decision was made at a lower level, and it is unclear the matter was brought to her attention then. IIndeed, after an NY Times story on the matter came out, she told Nicholas Kristof that “I feel awful about this,” and called for the state to allow new testing. Gov. Newsom has done so, but “advanced testing has not yet proved Mr. Cooper innocent,” and he remains in jail. This particular charge looks to be a pile of crap, and I suggest you not make any future references to her blocking DNA testing as this claim looks to be a lie publicized by the odious Gabbard.
3) A charge that she “kept people in prison beyond their sentences to use them as cheap labor for the state of Caliofonria.” In 2014 some attorneys in the AG office did indeed mad an argument for keeping some non-violent offenders in to help fight wildfires. However, when Harris was informed of this she “was shocked and troubled by use of this argument and directed that it never be used again by the department.” In short, this accusation is a plain out lie by Gabbard, and you should not repeat it, Moses.
4) She supposedly fought to keep a bail system in place that hurts poor people. On this one there is at least a shred of truth, more a matter of changing her mind. So in 2004 early in her time as DA for San Fran she supported increasing the cash bail for weapons-related charges, which was put in place. However, she never especially “fought to keep it in place.” As senator she introduced bipartisan legislation to encourage states to reform cash bail system so lower income people aren’t kept in jail as a result of inability to pay steep bail costs.” Apparentlyi California ended cash bail a few years ago, although Harris seems not to have played much of a role in that either way.
So, on Gabbard’s charges, there is some substance to the first and fourth, but none to the second or third. They are fabrications.
There is finally the claim that I have seen you bring up, Moses, that Harris enforced a tough and arguably unfair truancy law. That she did, but has since changed her mind as given by an LA Times headline from April 17, 2019, “Kamala Harris regrets truancy law that to arrest of some parents.” So, you can diss her later regret, if you like, Moses, but in general I do not think you have all that much here to make a case that Harris was awful in her 16 years as DA of SF and AG of CA, with her engaging in many progressive reforms and cases through that period, not that Gabbard or you are inclined to recognize any of that.
And as for your prediction that Black people will be not voting because of her, no, you have a bet on that one. Trump may well win, but it will not be because of that. Black women in particular have been all over TV and social media smiling broadly, expressing how they have broken out in tears of joy, and more generally expressing srrongly enthusiastic support for her nomination, although perhaps the Back people you know in such huge numbers do not go along with all that. Those people on TV and elsewhere are just lying, just fake news.
Moses,
So you went to grade school with lots of Blacks, but do you know any now? Have you actually communicated with any now about the nomination of Kamala Harris? I have a good friend who is a Trump supporter and spouts racist garbage, but assures me he is not a racist because he went to a grade school that was a majority African American. Looks to me that arguing you know what Blacks would think about Kamala Harris’s nomination because of your experience in grade school without actually having talked to any now or paid any attention to what they are essentially unanimously saying very loudly on media outlet after media outlet suggests to me that you are the one theorizing “from on high” about what Blacks think (or more likely, what you think they should think).
moses, it is now a binary choice. you either vote for trump, or biden. if you continue to take negative digs at biden and harris, you are simply supporting trump for another four years. if you think biden and harris are worse than trump, fine. but if not, it is time to get off the soap box and become a pragmatist. you don’t get to bash biden and harris, and then complain about trump for another four years. rice is no longer an option, but she can be part of the white house solution if biden gets into office. rice will continue to be irrelevant if trump wins another four years.
@ baffling
When truth-telling is labeled as unpatriotic, I think it says a lot about the person or persons, who label it as such. You’re doing the same thing as Russians and Chinese do everyday, and is “normalized” by people like you.
https://www.npr.org/2020/08/10/900758905/prominent-hong-kong-publisher-arrested-under-new-national-security-law
baffling,
It has been kind of amazing how much stuff that Moses spews here regularly is in complete alignment with Trump campaign propaganda and Fox News lies and misrepresentations. But he has been quite shameless about this for quite a long time.
“When truth-telling is labeled as unpatriotic”
i said nothing about being unpatriotic. i said you are responsible for your own actions. if you denigrate the biden-harris ticket, you are supporting trump. you no longer get to complain about the trump administration.
Sorry Moses.
@ macroduck
I appreciate the sentiments. I honestly do. The fact Biden chose Harris really actually hurts more than the non-choice of Rice. I can handle my “pet darling” not getting the job. Rice is probably not a “natural” going on the campaign trail. But I think she would have managed well and gotten the hang of stump speeches as she went along. That part that “hurts” (or really more angers me) is the choice of a fraud and a phony. But as I do my best to let my anger over this subside, I really think it’s not terribly surprising Biden would make this choice. Anymore “surprising” than when McCain chose Sarah Palin. The real shocker would have been if Biden had chosen Rice. I can separate my own biases from cynical reality. And I would have been nearly as shocked as anyone had he chosen Rice. Exhilarated and enthusiastic, but shocked at the choice at the same time. Maybe it’s hard to imagine, but I think that is kind of the bag of emotions I would have felt if he had chosen Rice.
Her bottom line:
“The resurgence in COVID-19 cases and subsequent pullback in activity have already begun. Delays to aid by Congress will exacerbate the slowdown in August. After that, much depends on our ability to ramp up testing, tracking, social distancing and masking to dampen the blow of a second wave. If we don’t stop the freight train of infections, the economy will crash again. The point of doing this analysis is to see how the worst case scenarios can be avoided. That is the silver lining – full stop.”
Alas – Donald Trump and his sycophants are doing all they can to make sure the worst case scenarios happen.
Your last sentence implies that Dong tDrumpf and motley crue think that the worst case can be blamed on the democrats. Are the propaganda outlets, Fox and Murdock, up to the job of making that blame stick in November? Are the other media so supine that they will not counter the propaganda? The world waits in horror of what is happening in the US.
It would make sense for a stimulus program to be passed. But if not, then yes, there will be double-dip recession.
Well, if Trump’s comment in yesterday’s briefing is to be believed, perhaps the COVID-19 pandemic will end the Korean War just as the 1917 (sic!) flu ended WW2 (sic!). Based on that line of reverse military Keynesian reasoning, I guess it might contribute to a double-dip recession as we transition to peacetime spending. Whatever.
A history major he was not.
Trump is such an utter moron. Even if he actually wanted to be a real President, he lacks the mental capacity for the job. Now running our nation in the ground to serve the interests of Putin – Trump excels at that.
And, I just saw a bit of his presser from today. He’s decrying violence in Seattle. What is he talking about? He is utterly isolated and uninformed. He’s a complete idiot. I live here and go downtown to an office off and on. Not as often as I would like due to the virus that he botched the response to. He clearly doesn’t know what he’s talking about.
Nor a major intellect.
The cloudy plastic ball says bunker boy’s Sharoie flourishes won’t amount to a hill of beans. Is it a double dip if the V disappears in less than a quarter. That makes it a W or maybe a saw blade more than a double dip.
Sharpie. My thumbs and phones are a bad combination.
Japan’s lost decade was driven by this type of internally inconsistent policies where they gave stimulus with one hand and took it back with the other.
Meanwhile, their federal deficit continued to grow.
In the second quarter the US federal deficit had already risen to 15% of GDP compared to the previous peak of 10% when Obama first took office
Putin is clearly Trump’s boss and he may be even more dishonest and slimy than his American puppet:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/11/europe/russia-coronavirus-vaccine-putin-intl/index.html?fbclid=IwAR1sfpCuvwh-4yoBGYLQEftK49vcJaPJmQoK-vYGj3FCX4wmQYaonpFu_GU
Putin says Russia has approved ‘world first’ Covid-19 vaccine.
Great news – right? Oh wait:
Developed by the Moscow-based Gamaleya Institute, the vaccine has been named Sputnik-V, a reference to the surprise 1957 launch of the world’s first satellite by the Soviet Union. It has yet to go through crucial Phase 3 trials where it would be administered to thousands of people.
It has only passed phase II and Putin is declaring success? Incredibly irresponsible. Well it has at least more science behind it than that hydroxychloroquine canard so Bruce Hall will likely tout this as a great success. Then again, other nations have potential vaccines that have also passed phase II trials. So who to trust? Our scientists and a Communist despot? Oh wait – Trump adores Putin.
putin is giving trump a carrot. by pushing out a vaccine early, he has paved the way for one last hail mary from trump, who will do the same. if it works, he will see positive effects by the election. if it fails, he was done anyway. trump will publicize a large scale introduction of a vaccine in the near term, i would imagine. he has already said as much in his public statements recently. he will have a lot of maga hatters who will volunteer for the effort, simply to support trump.
Putin decided to skip phase 3 which will determine safety and efficiency. What could possibly go wrong?
State and local governments appear to be holding on to workers so far in their new fiscal year. That can’t continue without a big lift to revenue.
Right now, things are getting worse for revenues, not better. The federal supplement to unemployment benefits, which has ended, was ending up in state treasuries as sales tax revenue. WAG: state revenues will fall by about 6% if the federal benefit is not reinstated, making it all the more likely that states and locals will be a persistent drag on spending and income, so on economic growth.
It is a curious business that while reportedly the biggest sticking point in the failed Covid-18 negotiations last Friday was over the size of aid to state and local governments, with Trump and Meadows apparently thinking that the problems are all in Dem states and municipalities, Trump’s memorandum on Saturday about what to do about unemployment insurance demands states to cough up extra money to help out the unemployed while he offers none to help out.
Of all people, I did hear on the radio that GOP Gove. Justice of WVa is ready to step up and do it with money from an emergency fund he has: poverty stricken West Virginia of all places, and one of the most pro-Trump states around. I am not holding my breath on how many other governors are going to jump through this hoop under the circumstances.
WVa really needs it. Food insecurity is high (15.7% of househods vs 11.2% nationwide) and rising. As we become increasingly urban, rural problems tend to fall through the cracks. WVa’s rural poor are among the poorest people in the country.
west virginia has really never done much to help its poor folks before. i have my doubts they would make a new sacrifice to do so today. if you are poor and live in west virginia, you simply understand that you are on your own.
In order for Trump to do the unemployment stunt he had to use previously appropriated, but not yet used funds (like he did for his border wall funding). So the “program” has enough money for about 2 weeks of funding and only if the states kick in $100 of the $400 he is promising. You got to give him that he is a master of the con. He got his headline of “giving” the unemployed $400 a week instead of the $600 they had been getting so far. He also got his headline of cutting social security taxes, and an eviction moratorium. Each of those 3 things are empty, but the press got snookered into giving him the headlines he needed for the con. SAD.
+1 for use of “WAG!”. I gave up using it because literally everyone here in NW Central Indiana simply stared blankly at me when I used it, even those to whom I had previously explained it. At least I have one kindred spirit somewhere in this world!
I’m not an engineer, but my understanding is that WAG is a term of art in engineering. Fort Wayne? Once full of engineers, as was much of the rest of the state. Not so much any more.
We used it all the time in the construction industry. You must be a born knuckle dragger.
Knuckle dragger? Yes! Thank you for noticing.
You are welcome. It is a title only those of us who use the term WAG routinely can aspire to. Welcome to the exclusive club.
“A drop in payrolls could come as soon as August when the remainder of the funds tied to the Payroll Protection Program (PPP) loans and grants are set to run out.”
Attempting a simple model (mixed frequency, using NY Fed lagged d(WEI) and the lagged dlog(ratio) of ICSA/CCSA), I thought I was way out on a limb finding negative job growth of 76,000 for August 2020 forecasting FRED series PAYEMS and -169,000 summing the forecasts of FRED series for services, USGOOD and USGOVT.
Any other attempts to compare?
Don’t forget the census hires in August. Just tack 100k or so on to whatever the model gives you.
macroduck,
Thanks for the census hires comment. I had not thought about the census workers.
@ AS
“Compare”?? What are you looking for exactly–the best estimate on unemployment specifically for August?? I think “the second round” of bad numbers (if you wanna view it that way) started mid-July.
Now some people will laugh at this (and maybe it’s a small ripple in the big picture of a national economy) but the Big 10 and PAC 12 announced today they have cancelled all conference football games. In all likelihood this puts major pressure on both the Big 12, and the SEC to cancel their football games. How many billions in lost revenues for schools this adds up to, I think has to be a significant number—certainly for university towns such as Madison. There’a lot of other businesses, restaurants, stadium vendors, local tourism, hotels that are gonna get walloped hard on that. You think of any University town with a top 40 Associated Press ranking for their football team (or even below) not having games and they are going to be hit hard.
Forecasting attempts for nonfarm payroll, FRED series PAYEMS.
It’s not just the ‘local’ fans. Some schools have a fan base that ‘travels well,’ meaning that a sizable contingent of their fans show up at away games, especially if they expect their team to win. IIRC, in the Big 10, that includes Wisconsin, Ohio State, Nebraska, and maybe Penn State. I think that Purdue had a home game two years ago with almost as many Nebraska fans as home fans. In other words, there’s a lot of money that travels well too, even if the home team is not very good.
And then there are all those bowl games around the holidays.
the “travels well” idea is a little misleading with any sports teams. yes some fans do travel. but often times, it is a result of a diaspora from that area-usually a result of poor economic conditions during a previous generation, and holding onto ones roots. in professional sports, they always said the pittsburgh steeler fans traveled well, because they filled up visiting stadiums. but the reality is that most of those folks are relatively local, but still follow the steelers because that is what their family does. if you visit any sports bar on a fall sunday, you will notice a select few teams dominate the business week in and week out. these are the transplants that will also fill the visiting stadium when their team arrives. not that some don’t travel, but many are simply transplants due to economic reasons. and good football teams like the steelers!
@ AS
I say this respectfully, you’re a little bit of an early bird on August PAYEMS forecasts. I don’t see Goldman Sachs, IHS etc making forecasts on this number as of yet, and my guess is they are going to be gun shy when that time arrives. My guess is they will be more into quoting “ranges” of PAYEMS release numbers. Maybe keep an eye out for forecasts on “Tradng Economics” website. I will try to keep your query in the back of my head clear to the end of this month, and if I see any forecasts or thoughts, I will put them up in any of Menzie’s threads (even if off-topic of the thread). I’m guessing some people will dare to throw their two cents in around the 25th of August and leading up to the Friday data release.
Moses,
Thanks for the interest.
I notice that forecasts.org has made forecasts of the change in PAYEMS for the next several months. It would be interesting to know what method or model is used. Forecasts.org is forecasting a 1.418 million change in PAYEMS for August 2020. https://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/gnp.htm
Using the NY Fed WEI and the ratio of ICSA/CCSA seems to be more useful since the pandemic than for earlier periods and may be useful for the next few periods to make an early forecast.
WEI has some data elements that are difficult to find without a subscription. Elements of WEI are listed below as taken from the website: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/weekly-economic-index#/interactive
The WEI represents the common component of ten daily and weekly series covering consumer behavior, the labor market, and production, including:
• Initial unemployment insurance claims
• Continuing unemployment insurance claims
• Federal taxes withheld
• Redbook same-store sales
• Rasmussen Consumer Index
• The American Staffing Association Staffing Index
• Raw steel production
• U.S. railroad traffic
• U.S. fuel sales to end users
• U.S. electricity output
@ AS
I had already forgot about WEI, which is pretty bad since Menzie mentioned it relatively recently. I will definitely keep an eye on that related to the August PAYEMS and the 3rd quarter GDP. I DO think there is valuable stuff to be gleaned there, especially when economic data is becoming more “sporadic” in behavior, for lack of a better description. And I definitely think it can help you with your August PAYEMS forecast if you can properly gauge the portion of weight to give the WEI numbers in “tweaking” your forecast.
Related to macroduck’s comments:
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/08/august-employment-report-temporary.html
Trump has already attacked Harris for being “nasty”. So predictable. Who was she nasty to? Oh yea the rapist on the Supreme Court. Go figure!
Moses,
Surprisingly, today’s release of new claims for unemployment insurance, FRED series ICSA registered at 963,000 compared to Econoday consensus of 1,150,000. My amateur forecast was at 1,122,000.
This weeks new claims at 963,000 seems to be good news and seems to imply next week’s new claims mean forecast at about 940,000. Today’s update of the NY Fed WEI should be interesting.