Inflation: Three Event Studies

The surprise in inflation for the March, April, and May reference month releases induced respectively 2, 4, and 6 basis point upward moves in the 5 year inflation breakevens — hardly earthshaking.

Figure 1: Five year inflation breakeven calculated as five year Treasury yield minus five year TIPS yield (blue), five year breakeven adjusted by inflation risk premium and liquidity premium per DKW, all in %. Source: FRB via FRED, Treasury, KWW following D’amico, Kim and Wei (DKW) accessed 6/4, and author’s calculations.

22 thoughts on “Inflation: Three Event Studies

  1. Moses Herzog

    This “high inflation” isn’t going to kill Barkley Rosser’s 2020 V-shaped recovery call is it?? I made a large bet using my 27×40 Copmala Harris wall poster as collateral that we were gonna get that V-recovery on Barkley’s assurances and I’m afraid the Vegas mob debt collectors may take it away.

    1. Barkley Rosser


      I am not going to explain in any detail, but this is one the stupidest and most worthless posts you have ever put up here. You are by far by the worst commentator on this site, way worse than many of those on the right wing side here, such as Steven Kopits, and even some of the others. You should be ashamed of yourself, although that is far from being anything new here.

      1. pgl

        I have to admit that I had to Google Cop Mala Harris. What I got was a bunch of pretend progressives mostly white people who likely have a KKK outfit in their wardrobes. These morons think “defund the police” is a winning strategy and all police are racists.

        Now I have never called Uncles Moses a racist but he sure hates black people who actually get a sport he has no clue about (basketball). After all – Trae Moses is not Russell Westbrook even if they are the same height and both black. So draw your own conclusion.

        Me? I’m enjoying the 76er/Hawk game tonight as both are very good teams. Moses will probably get drunk, watch 5 minutes, and then write some of the dumbest commentary ever.

        1. pgl

          You know – it is time for all of us just ignore your dishonest ramblings. Do watch the game tonight without typing your usual garbage – maybe you will learn something (but I doubt it).

        2. Moses Herzog

          The more I read about pgl’s paragon for basketball knowledge, the more I think it’s only natural a person of pgl’s character would like him and avidly watch him:

          Personally, after reading all these things, and Stephen A. Smith’s halfhearted apologies, it makes me even more glad I’ve never heard as much as two paragraphs out of this man’s mouth, as I switch to better sources.

          Two children, never married. Why bother getting married, right pgl?? It’s a way to show respect and maybe attain honorary membership into pgl’s special group of “feminists”.

          1. pgl

            The men in white coats will be knocking at your door tonight. Go with them quietly as you have truly lost whatever excuse of a mind you ever had.

          2. Moses Herzog

            @ pgl
            NO, really, I want to hear more about what you have learned from an ESPN basketball commentator who says women “provoke” domestic violence. Your new brand of “feminism” is very fascinating to me pgl. I’ve never observed this school of “feminism” before. Teach us more basketball guru, please. Stephen A. Smith also thinks NBA stars’ wives “should be quiet/silent”. Your personal hero for basketball analysis really is an embodiment of your world views pgl and I wish to see more of the media personalities you consume everyday there on ESPN. Kind of like imagining donald trump watching TV during the insurrection. This is very very fascinating.

          3. pgl

            “ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith has some thoughts about Ayesha Curry’s decision to tweet that the NBA “is absolutely rigged” after her husband.”

            She is a lovely wife and mom but if you think a wife whining about her husband fouling out of game where he did commit six fouls make her Hubie Brown – you are dumb. In fact you remind me of Stephen’s dad back in the days when I coached a great group of kids in soccer. OK since I’m talking about another game that you do not get so let me mansplain to you why our offense was so prolific. Stephen was skinny so defenses thought they could run over him. But he also was one of the best passers I have ever seen. So the player was to feed him the ball and then trail my fastest athlete – Justin. Stephen passes the ball to Justin and GOAL.

            Of course Stephen’s dad who was a lot like you would scream from the sidelines during the Saturday games that Stephen should be scoring embarrassing his talented kid. So one day I pulled this know nothing a$$hole over with his wife and told him his kid got it and he didn’t. I told him to shut the eff up until he bothered to come to our practices, which he never did. I just hope you never had a kid as we all know you of all people could not keep his damn mouth shut about a sport you never understood.

            BTW game at State Farm and your boy Russell Westbrook is not playing. Enjoy it moron.

        3. pgl

          He was not endorsing violence idiot. A six year old story? Well at least he knows how to apologize when he makes an a$$ out of himself. Something you do all the time and you never apologize for your garbage.

      2. pgl

        “You are by far by the worst commentator on this site, way worse than many of those on the right wing side here, such as Steven Kopits, and even some of the others.”

        A couple of months ago I would have suggested this was unfair. But no – you very well may be correct. We need to ignore Uncle Moses as it has become increasingly clear that he has some serious emotional problems.

      1. Moses Herzog

        You have someone here labeling me a KKK member because I called them out, and you’re asking ME “What the Heck??” I don’t mind you let the comment up because I think anyone intelligent sees it for what it is, but unless you think my nursing home humor on Barkley just isn’t that funny, I don’t know what you’re complaining about.

        One labels anyone who disagrees with them or calls them out a “racist” or a “sexist” the other one says because I call him out on falsities that I’m worse than the guy he continually interacts with like he’s his neighbor even though that person counts Hispanic people’s deaths in Puerto Rico as nothing. That to me is what qualifies as “what the Heck”.

        1. Menzie Chinn Post author

          Moses Herzog: That is a good point. I am going to delete all comments referencing “douche”, all calling someone in an exchange a KKK member (without proper documentation – after all some people *are* members), and anything else I deem racist/sexist/misogynistic. I should have been keeping closer tabs on this exchange, but seriously, MEGO when you go into digressions of sports. Nonetheless, my error, and I apologize.

          For the sake of my sanity and productivity in other dimensions, commentators please refrain from indicating people are members of racist/misogynistic groups without documentation (or self-identification) to that fact.

          1. Moses Herzog

            I don’t have a problem with the language (as you might have guessed). I am quite liberal on language (you’re shocked right??) But Even I, I suppose the “foulest” regular on your blog, believe certain terms should be reserved for extreme and obvious cases (that’s the commenters’ problem, not the host’s). If you have “commenter X” and he compares two NBA players playing the same position, similar physical build, very similar game statistics profile, and similar weaknesses, and because “commenter B” has a “mancrush” on them because he is from his hometown I get thrown in with the dudes wearing white sheets, you would agree that is a poor way of argumentation??

            Would you agree I have somewhat tried to meet you halfway on this stuff and toned it down some over say the last 6 months?? If you go back, I would think you might be surprised to see I let dumb and dumber get the last word here, about 75% of the time. But see the problem with that (which I knew was going to happen from the get-go), they don’t take letting them have the last word as “classy” or “dignified”. People of a 4th grade maturity level take having the last word as “victory” and then pile on some more. So, language to me is not the problem on those two words. What is a problem is that I should be questioned on why I’m not going to lay there while someone of grade school maturity has the sole of their dirty shoes on my face. I don’t care if they are PhD, peer-reviewed, you name it. I am not going to lay there. I criticize “both sides of the aisle”, which includes dumb moves and statements by people like Copmala Harris. Because I think for myself and HAVE A BRAIN, If the fact I have a brain, and therefor the ability to see fallacies in BOTH parties, I am “oh so sorry” that bothers pgl or any Democrat PhD holders reading this comment.

            I am very happy to have you upload those comments of pgl—including said language. But I also have a right to respond.

  2. joseph

    Also the stock market was up slightly after today’s inflation announcement. Apparently Wall Street is not expecting the Fed to slam on the brakes any time soon.

  3. Ivan

    Most money managers can look past the elevated inflation numbers and see that it is all driven by airlines getting back to normal prices and the used car market temporarily being hit by increased demand (because stimulus checks are being used for downpayment) and decreased supply from rental fleets and new car buyers.

    1. baffling

      the car issue is really a supply side problem, not an increase in demand type of problem. new cars are supply constrained due to the limitations of needed computer chips. since people are not trading in old cars for new ones, there is limited supply of both new and used cars. people who would have bought a new car, for a variety of reasons, have been opting for a good used car instead. this has driven up the cost, with limited supply. once they autos get their supply chain issues worked out, the supply issue will disappear and the price gains will probably evaporate. seems to be temporary in nature. how quickly rental fleets are rebuilt will have an impact.

      1. pgl

        “new cars are supply constrained due to the limitations of needed computer chips.”

        Yea but remember there is this temporary shortfall because companies like Ford relied on incompetents like Bruce Hall to forecast demand and to use an illogical just in time inventory management system. And people wonder why US auto had to get a Federal bailout in 2008.

      2. Ivan

        So there is both a supply and a demand issue at work in used cars (the component that is driving the spike in inflation). But both should be relatively short-lived.

        1. baffling

          “So there is both a supply and a demand issue at work in used cars”
          technically yes. but in my opinion, it is really driven by the supply issues. the demand is a short term result of the constrained supplies. but agree, this does not appear to be constrained.

  4. ltr

    June 11, 2021

    Over 845 mln COVID-19 vaccine doses administered across China

    BEIJING — Over 845.2 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines had been administered across China as of Thursday, the National Health Commission (NHC) said Friday.

    [ Domestically, 7 Chinese vaccines are now being administered at a rate of 20 million daily. Internationally, more than 350 million Chinese vaccine doses have been distributed to more than 75 nations. A number of nations are being assisted in producing Chinese vaccines. ]

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