Wisconsin GDP in Q1

Wisconsin GDP has recovered largely in line with the US, but the bifurcation in economy remains.

Figure 1: US GDP relative to 2019Q4 peak (black), Wisconsin (red), Minnesota (blue), all relative to 2019Q4, in logs. Source: BEA, GDP by state release, and author’s calculations.

Mirroring the employment trends, the sectoral divergence remains.

Figure 2: Wisconsin Manufacturing GDP (blue, left log scale), accommodation and food services GDP (red, right log scale). Source BEA GDP by state release.

Manufacturing output is 2.6% above 2019Q4 levels, while accommodation and food services output is 2.1%. 21% below.

The Philadelphia Fed’s coincident index suggests continued growth into May, albeit at much lower pace than in January, April (May numbers on 6/29). May employment growth was very slow, however.

Figure 3: [updated 6/29] Wisconsin GDP in Ch.2012$ (blue), coincident index (red), both in logs, relative to 2019M11. Source: BEA GDP by state release and Philadelphia Fed (updated- May release).

 

 

 

 

37 thoughts on “Wisconsin GDP in Q1”

  1. Moses Herzog

    Great comeback win by Trae Young in Atlanta tonight. When State Farmers Arena gets to rockin’ Trae Young gets to floppin’. His +/- number tonight was negative 13 vs his teammate Capela’s +/- number of positive eleven. Trae Flopper had 8 missed three-pointers and 4 turnovers. Hero ball wins another game tonight in Atlanta. To bad Doc Rivers wasn’t there to coach the Bucks’ best defensive player on the bench at the end of the game or throw his best defensive player under the bus at the post game presser. Good times……..
    https://media.giphy.com/media/OjIp0E63XKUljkWT0x/giphy.gif

    1. pgl

      Where you drunk for game 1? 48 points and 11 assists.

      Yea productivity went down in that last quarter when they were up by 7 points because he was playing on a twisted ankle. Oh – you did not know as you as usual did not watch the game. I guess you little dishonest cheat sheet forgot to inform you of this little detail. Which is why you are the worst basketball analyst ever.

      1. pgl

        Old Uncle Moses should Google “I’m sick of Trae Young” which happened to be Richard Jefferson on the Jump. Of course Richard Jefferson knows Trae Young torched the Bucs in game 1 – something old Uncle Moses slept through after drinking too much wine.

    2. pgl

      Doc Rivers laughing? I guess he like you did not know his 76ers lost to the Hawks. Oh well – at least Doc knows the game. You don’t.

  2. pgl

    The latest between Marjorie Taylor UglyasSin and AOC had Ms. Ugly claiming AOC is not from America. Well AOC is from New York City so OK!

    But then Ms. Ugly called AOC a “little Communist”. AOC replied “I’m taller”.

  3. ltr

    A look at how China conducts and tries to accomplish with monetary policy:

    http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-06/28/c_1310032453.htm

    June 28, 2021

    China to replenish pork reserves to stabilize market

    BEIJING — China’s top economic planner said Monday it plans to purchase pork to replenish the reserves at both the central and local levels, as an index monitoring pork prices has dropped below a warning level.

    The index, the national average of pork prices against grain prices, came in at 4.9 to 1 last week, falling below the warning level of 5 to 1, said the National Development and Reform Commission. The index can reflect the cost and profit relationship in pig farming.

    The authorities released a work plan in early June to improve the mechanism for adjusting pork reserves to stabilize the market, detailing multiple measures to avoid drastic price changes in the pork market.

    Since 2021, hog prices have trended down for several consecutive months. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that prices went down 11.2 percent in early June compared with late May.

    While cyclical fluctuations of pork supply and prices are a worldwide phenomenon, such volatilities are especially high in China, partly because the majority of the country’s pigs are produced on family farms.

    1. pgl

      Farm price supports for pork is not what most people call monetary policy. I hate to say it Anne but you a screw loose.

  6. ltr

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/28/business/economy/black-workers-racial-pay-gap.html

    June 28, 2021

    Black Workers Stopped Making Progress on Pay. Is It Racism?
    Economists are grappling with how much to blame bias or a changing economy for the widening wage gap over the last 40 years.
    By Eduardo Porter

    William Spriggs, a professor at Howard University, wrote an open letter last year to his fellow economists. Reacting to the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, he began the letter with a question: “Is now a teachable moment for economists?”

    Slamming what he saw as attempts to deny racial discrimination, Dr. Spriggs argued that economists should stop looking for a reason other than racism — some “omitted variable” — to account for why African Americans are falling further behind in the economy.

    “Hopefully, this moment will cause economists to reflect and rethink how we study racial disparities,” wrote Dr. Spriggs, who is Black. “Trapped in the dominant conversation, far too often African American economists find themselves having to prove that African Americans are equal.”

    After a year in which demands for racial justice acquired new resonance, Dr. Spriggs and others are pushing back against a strongly held tenet of economics: that differences in wages largely reflect differences in skill.

    While African Americans lag behind whites in educational attainment, that disparity has narrowed substantially over the last 40 years. Still, the wage gap hasn’t budged.

    In 2020, the typical full-time Black worker earned about 20 percent less than a typical full-time white worker. And Black men and women are far less likely than whites to have a job. So the median earnings for Black men in 2019 amounted to only 56 cents for every dollar earned by white men. The gap was wider than it was in 1970.

    Lost Progress

    Earnings of Black men, as a percentage of the earnings of white men, are at the same place they were in the 1960s and 1970s.

    2. Moses Herzog

      One of the little “ironies” that our friend “ltr” hasn’t caught onto yet, is how bad it makes his favorite country look that he can find plenty of American sourced stories which criticize America, but he cannot find a single Xinhua or “CGTN” story which even mildly criticizes the overseers in Beijing.

      Which of those two processes seems like a healthier long-term set up?? All of this is besides the point anyway, because it assumes “ltr” has good intentions to save the poor, helpless, picked on in the schoolyard child that he calls Zhongguo. Poor little Zhongguo, Beijing stole his lunch money AGAIN and he still thinks it was the dirty little Laowai kid that is the originator of ALL his problems, even if he has to go back 75 years to blame the dirty foreigner and stretch credulity to infinity, that is what the poor, helpless, endlessly picked on, sniffling, mainland child, will do.

      1. Barkley Rosser

        Sigh….. :-(.

        Maybe this is the last time I am going to bother with this, but, Moses, I really do not get this obsession of yours to insist that ltr must be male. It is probably a sign of my ongoing sippy cup s——y that I do not remember you from there, maybe record keeper pgl does, but I do not remember you from Economists View. Perhaps you posted there under a different phony name.

        But if you really did post there and hung out there on a regular basis, I really cannot see how you cannot see that ltr is absolutely and definitely the same person as the one who posted there as “anne.” The only difference is the greater degree now of posting increasingly nonsensical stuff here about China. Otherwise, the views and general approach are absolutely identical. Heck, anne used to repeat posts when somebody provided a criticism of some. This is something we have just seen ltr do here within these last couple of threads, just like good old anne on EV. I do not know anybody else who does that.

        So, again, I do not know what your schtick is with this insistence that ltr is a “he,” (do you think that anne was really a guy?), but it looks like a piece of your broader problem regarding gender, which I shall not further remind everybody here of.

  7. ltr

    A critical component of the Chinese consumer price index is pork. There is a need that this principal meat be priced evenly and affordably. To insure fair pricing of pork, China has restructured the market since 2018, so that pork production while generally on family farms is increasingly assisted with advanced technology and China has a variable reserve that can run to 2 years national supply. Right now pork prices have been falling and the Chinese are buying pork for the reserve to keep a more even price.

    This is typical for Chinese monetary policy, and the effects could well be an example.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=viCv

    January 30, 2018

    Consumer Prices for China and India, 2017-2021

    (Percent change)

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=EQVi

    January 30, 2018

    Consumer Prices for China, India, Brazil, Turkey and South Africa, 2017-2021

    (Percent change)

    1. pgl

      “A critical component of the Chinese consumer price index is pork.”

      Seriously? I have not had pork in the last 15 years. If you are saying pork is a huge portion of the average Chinese household budget, you have truly lost it.

        2. pgl

          “The weight of food has declined, but it still warrants close watching. Food inflation picked up to 7.7% year on year in May from 6.1% in April, lifted by rising fruit, vegetable and pork prices. These gains, though, are due to a supply shock – which won’t last. For that reason, we don’t think the current food-driven rise in inflation would stand in the way of easing monetary policy if the economy needs it.”

          This was truly a nice discussion. And behalf of all New Yorkers – let’s hope Princeton Steve can enjoy a bagel at a decent price soon.

        3. Moses Herzog

          If I may be so bold to speak as one who spent 7 years of his life there, [ok, yes, in the 2000s or “noughts” ] if you’re going to lower income groups, pork might even make up a larger portion of their expenditures than 2.5%. Outside of eggs and soybean products (which yes, could be cheaper substitutes) I think you’d be hard-pressed to name where else the lower middle class and below would get their daily protein from.

          Some of my students I think very easily could have been described as poor or certainly from low income families (And yes I am going from a “typical” Chinese person’s definition of “poor”, not American suburbs Mom definition of “poor”). I would say pork dumplings was almost their version of a McDonalds hamburger.

          Yes….. Yes…… I know it is shocking that Chinese eating habits don’t mirror pgl’s eating habits. It’s not like pgl is some huge narcissist who would assume such a thing, if it weren’t indeed true. Menzie, have you informed China’s National Bureau of Statistics yet, so they can stop phoning up pgl to survey him, and update them that Chinese eating habits don’t mirror pgl’s eating habits??? This is apt to have a huge culture shock within China’s National Bureau of Statistics and throw the numbers completely out of whack. You might phone up WSJ too while you’re at it Menzie. This news is going to have huge ripples on how price indexes are compiled. Barkley might even publish a paper on this.

          2. Moses Herzog

            @ Menzie
            I agree that the U.S. measure is equally as bad in this facet. But I still felt the point warranted being made. Actually the truth is I was being petty and get my shot in at pgl. But seriously, I grew up, always eating and always with a roof over my head, but definitely lower middle class. So I tend to sympathize with remembering or highlighting what these food outlays are for low income people. My sympathy for that socioeconomic group stretches out to both the USA people and Chinese people in this predicament. I can tell you horror stories related to cans of pork and beans and off-brand macaroni and cheese boxes, but I’ll spare you this week’s episode of self-pity.

          3. pgl

            OK – my eating and drinking habits do not include all the massive amounts of wine that you live off of but come on dude – your latest little rant is so incredibly stupid that by comparison your dumb basketball rants look like some from Coach K. Do sober up before you watch tonight’s game. Oh wait – you think the Lakers are playing the Warriors.

          4. pgl

            “Barkley might even publish a paper on this.”

            And if he did, I am sure he would make the following key points:

            (1) ltr’s claim that stabilizing pork prices is monetary policy is as dumb as Stephen Moore’s commodity price based monetary policy

            (2) the idea that lower income folks in China eat more pork than sushi is akin to poor Irish folks eating a lot of potatoes.

            And yea I am Irish and I had a baked potato along with my chicken tonight. Which only means that Uncle Moses trying to paint me as elitist only shows how drunk his high priced wine has made him.

          5. Barkley Rosser

            pgl, Moses, et al,

            Well, I have published papers on the Chinese economy, but not on details of its price indexes.

            Based on what I know having spent some time there, if not as much as Moses, he is right that pork is a serious staple, although I am not going to pass any judgment on the number Menzie supplied from the official data.

            I would only warn Moses that I doubt that even those he knew whom he considered to be “lower income” probably were not. That they were in an urban area almost certainly means they were not as the poorer people were (and still are) in rural areas, this being something I do know about from my own past work. Moses might tell us that these people were from rural areas and from poor families, and that is probably true. But that they successfully moved to an urban area meant that they were not going to be poor for much longer, even if they came from poor backgrounds. I personally know a number of Chinese who came from “dirt floor” backgrounds who are now worth a lot more than I am financially. But again, Moses, I am sure you are right that those people consumed a lot of pork products.

            For pgl, indeed the idea that subsidizing pork is some sort of “monetary policiy” is simply ludicrous.

    2. pgl

      One reliable source is saying per capita pork consumption in China is 75 pounds per year. More than I consume but this is likely less than Princeton Steve’s bagel consumption. So the idea that China’s consumer price index is dominated by the price of pork is really really dumb.

  8. pgl

    An interesting group call the FACT Coalition got a bill passed in the House that would require US publicly traded companies to publicly disclose their “country by country” reporting, which discloses where their profits are sourced for tax purposes.

    https://thefactcoalition.org/house-takes-historic-step-in-advancing-corporate-tax-transparency/

    Such reporting to the tax authorities is a fairly new requirement which helps the tax authorities identify the shifting of income to tax havens.

    Now we may think public disclosure is a great idea – those big shot tax cheats will fight like hell not to have their accounts publicly disclosed. Any guesses how McConnell is going to respond to all of this?

  9. ltr

    A critical component of the Chinese consumer price index is pork….

    [ Surely so.

    Since pork is symbolically and materially important to the Chinese and being able to afford pork is important for a Chinese family and there are many Chinese families for whom an increase in the price of pork could or would mean a change in what is eaten. Nonetheless, the Chinese have tried to even the price of pork and this makes perfect sense when the point is fairness.

    Chinese sector directed monetary policy may not be American general monetary policy, but it works for Chinese purposes. ]

  10. ltr

    When I prepare turkey dinners for families before holidays, I learn just what it means to a family for whom affording a supermarket holiday dinner can be troubling. I have also noticed how pronounced shopping for supermarket bargains has become this past year:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=F3Gg

    January 30, 2018

    Federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program as a share of Disposable Personal Income, 2007-2019

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=F3Go

    January 30, 2018

    Federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program as a share of Gross Domestic Product, 2007-2019

  11. ltr

    http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-01/23/c_139691881.htm

    January 23, 2021

    China poverty reduction miracle in “wrinkles of Earth”

    — More than half a million people living on the southwestern Chinese border have thrown off the shackles of poverty.
    — The canyon area of the Nujiang River originating from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is one of China’s poorest regions.
    — The area has been transformed thanks to a nationwide poverty-relief campaign.

    By Wu Xiaoyang, Zhao Jiasong and Zhao Peiran

    KUNMING — More than half a million people living on the southwestern Chinese border have thrown off the shackles of poverty, their ancestors having long been isolated from the rest of the world.

    The Nujiang Lisu Autonomous Prefecture in Yunnan Province sits in the Hengduan Mountains. Its fold ranges, dubbed the “wrinkles of the Earth,” were shaped by the most intense plate movements on the planet.

    The canyon area of the Nujiang River originating from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is one of China’s poorest regions, home to those who make humble livings by farming the land with limited acreage. But now, it has been transformed thanks to a nationwide poverty-relief campaign.

    BUILDING LIFELINES

    He Xiaoyong, 41, is a member of the Dulong ethnic group, which has a small population of about 7,000, 60 percent of whom live in the Dulongjiang Township of Gongshan County.

    In 1964, the local government opened a horse track across the neighboring Gaoligong Mountain, on which horse caravans carried food, salt and drugs to the secluded locality before the village was snowbound each year.

    “It took us 12 days to go back and forth from our village to the county seat. It was difficult. We risked our lives during every trip as accidents like landslides, rolling stones or avalanches could occur at any time,” said He.

    In 1999, a simple road was built in Dulongjiang, and it was the first time that most Dulong people had seen an automobile. He sold his horses and purchased a tractor with savings he had collected for years, as horse caravans were no longer needed.

    In 2014, a 6.68-km tunnel was dug through the mountain to allow year-round traffic.

    The road became a lifeline, and it unveiled the long-hidden village to the world….

  12. ltr

    A critical component of the Chinese consumer price index is pork….

    [ This is of course correct, as any person who knows the importance of pork for a Chinese family would realize. A Chinese family will take delight in setting a table for the “slightest” guest and to readily have a variety of fruit to begin with and meat as a full meal is meaningful and gratifying. The variety of fruits and vegetables now in China, now all through China, has come these last decades and is properly valued. Being food self-sufficient is emphasized:

    http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-06/09/139999152_16232493836501n.jpg

    June 9, 2021

    Shaliuhe Township, Gangcha County in Haibei Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, northwest China’s Qinghai Province ]

    1. pgl

      I am beginning to think ltr is some Chinese bot. Folks do not bother to reply to this bot with facts as it ain’t paying attention.

  13. ltr

    Through the first 6 months of 2020, China financed 76,000 technically advanced pig farming operations * or some 12% of the number of total operations in January 2020. This should give a sense of the importance of pork market stability for the Chinese. Evidently the investment in production has been successful, and in a quicker time than I had supposed. Where an Anne Krueger or Paul Krugman may be shy about industrial management, Chinese policy makers are not so shy and I would argue these 44 years of growth support a Chinese development approach as much as the World Bank alternative.

    * http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-07/26/c_139241310.htm

      1. pgl

        And your little point is ??? Oh yea – who cares a poor family has to pay more for pork. Let them eat cake.

  14. ltr

    https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2021/April/weo-report?c=924,134,534,158,111,&s=PPPPC,&sy=1980&ey=2021&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1

    April 15, 2021

    Gross Domestic Product per capita based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) * for China, Germany, India, Japan and United States, 1980 & 2021

    1980

    China ( 307)
    Germany ( 11,143)
    India ( 533)
    Japan ( 9,157)
    United States ( 12,553)

    2020

    China ( 17,192)
    Germany ( 54,076)
    India ( 6,461)
    Japan ( 42,248)
    United States ( 63,416)

    2021

    China ( 18,931)
    Germany ( 56,956)
    India ( 7,333)
    Japan ( 44,585)
    United States ( 68,309)

    * Data are expressed in US dollars adjusted for purchasing power parities (PPPs), which provide a means of comparing spending between countries on a common base. PPPs are the rates of currency conversion that equalise the cost of a given “basket” of goods and services in different countries.

  15. ltr

    https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2021/April/weo-report?c=223,924,132,134,532,534,536,158,546,922,112,111,&s=PPPGDP,&sy=2007&ey=2021&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1

    April 15, 2021

    Gross Domestic Product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation for China, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Macao, Russia and United States, 2007-2021

    2020

    Brazil ( 3,154)
    China ( 24,626)
    France ( 3,000)
    Germany ( 4,497)
    India ( 8,907)

    Indonesia ( 3,302)
    Japan ( 5,313)
    Russia ( 4,097)
    United Kingdom ( 2,960)
    United States ( 20,933)

    2021

    Brazil ( 3,328)
    China ( 27,191)
    France ( 3,232)
    Germany ( 4,744)
    India ( 10,207)

    Indonesia ( 3,507)
    Japan ( 5,586)
    Russia ( 4,328)
    United Kingdom ( 3,175)
    United States ( 22,675)

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