Forecasted Ten Year Interest Rate Trajectory Declines

From WSJ surveys:

Figure 1: Ten year Treasury yields (black), WSJ October 2020 survey (red square), January 2021 (blue triangle), April 2021 (teal triangle), and July 2021 (pink square), all end-of-quarter, %. Source: Fed via FRED, WSJ surveys.

Placing the forecasts in context, the July forecast for June 2022 is the same as the median value from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and only slightly above the CBO’s June forecast. In this sense, the forecasts are not too dissimilar for mid-2022.

Figure 2: Ten year Treasury yields (black), WSJ July 2021 (pink square), CBO (red), Administration (blue), Survey of Professional Forecasters (teal), %; all quarterly average of monthly data except WSJ. Dates for CBO, Administration refer to when forecasts were “locked down”.  Source: Fed via FRED, OMB, CBO, Philadelphia Fed, and WSJ surveys.

 

29 thoughts on “Forecasted Ten Year Interest Rate Trajectory Declines

  1. Moses Herzog

    Does anyone know what this nonsense is about?? i.e “the error”. Yes I know (and largely agree) a blog post is not the same thing as a research paper and has a lower bar. But shouldn’t a credentialed economist share or note what his error was??
    https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2021/07/yellen-on-climate.html

    I am a person who (though not generally masochistic) takes on certain masochistic tasks from time to time. My latest masochistic task: I know John Cuckrant of “Grumpy Economist” blog is wrong about his girlish shrieking about “1970s inflation in 2021–2022” (lets get real, that’s indeed what this narcissist was saying). I also know he is the type egomaniac (like others I could mention who will go unnamed at the moment) who can never admit he was wrong. So intermittently I check back on John Cuckrant’s blog to see if he now behaves like the topic of inflation no longer exists because it’s slowly dawning on John Cuckrant, what an asinine statement that was. If anyone has any thoughts on this, or would like to join in a search of archived web pages to find out what the “error” was on a Yellen blog post, please share in this thread.

    I also note that Larry Summers is slowly/sneakily moving away from the topic of inflation, and has found a new thing to cry about since he hasn’t been allowed to play reindeer games with the other kids in Biden’s WH playground. Larry is now upset that we don’t sit down and talk to obstinate people in Beijing, who think that dialogue with other countries is that Beijing makes proclamations, and other nations follow what they say like much of their infantile TV propaganda educated citizenry. Great idea Larry. And Larry while you’re at it, why don’t you retire from washed-up fatman tennis, and spend 20 minutes each morning banging your head against a large block of limestone, because that makes about as much sense as “more dialogue with Beijing”. We did this with NAFTA. That “dialogue” is working out great for people in cultural genocide camps in Xinjiang, Which by the way, doesn’t seem to be bothering Summers (do you hear Larry mentioning Xinjiang much on his TV guest spots??), a man who one would imagine would be bothered by genocide of an entire culture. “Oh well”, it’s not Larry’s tribe in Xinjiang now, so…….. Neither is Larry apparently bothered my murder and imprisonment of believers in democracy in China. Because the best way to stop murder and imprisonment of people is having “dialogue” with the murderers. Larry’s way to stop his children from grabbing cookies out of the cookie jar, is to sit down with them over a large slice of chocolate cake, and discuss with the child with chocolate frosting all over Larry’s mouth, that maybe taking cookies out of the cookie jar all day is something they can talk about later, after they have discussed today’s weather over cake.

    Reply
    1. Moses Herzog

      Oh, my mistake, John Cuckrant is still certain 1970s inflation is going to kill us all. News at 11:
      https://review.chicagobooth.edu/economics/2021/article/end-end-inflation

      Internet Wayback machine isn’t what it used to be……. having a devil of a time finding the original “Yellen On Climate” John Cuckrant post. Do you think if Cuckrant thought it was a small error he’d take it down not telling us what it was?? It seems a sure bet Cuckrant finds it embarrassing or he’d just say why the need to take the blog post down. BTW, does Cuckrant know you’re supposed to capitalize blog post titles?? “Yellen on climate”

      Reply
      1. Dr. Dysmalist

        I’ve been ignoring Cochrane for around 5 years. He’s monumentally arrogant and very selectively informed about current economic thought, and only somewhat better informed than the Usual Suspects here. But, like a fool, I followed your link.

        He’s truly a member of the wingnut media:

        ” … how wide sensible consensus is on the issue: 26 percent of the economists agreed that “the current combination of US fiscal and monetary policy poses a serious risk of prolonged higher inflation,” 23 percent disagreed, and 40 percent said the answer was uncertain.”

        26 for, 23 against, 40 abstaining (uncertain), and he calls this a “wide consensus?! Anyone with integrity would call this “evenly split, for all practical purposes.” He displays his lack of integrity in the service of continuing to be an inflation Chicken Little? Does he think that his predictions from 2009 finally coming true (maybe) make him a seer?

        I think that this latest in our host’s series on the topic of inflation, along with all of the other posts in the series, shows that analysts who are paying attention to all of the current information and who don’t have an ideological axe to grind strongly disagree with him and his 12 year crusade against windmills inflation.

        John Quixote should call his blog “The Non-Economist Who’s a Crank.” Regardless, I can safely go back to ignoring him. I very much hope everyone else does as well.

        Reply
        1. baffling

          “26 for, 23 against, 40 abstaining (uncertain)”
          but you must understand, in the conservative echo chamber, what they read is 26 for. period. other perspectives are not counted. you see it on this blog all the time. as long as at least one other person agrees with a maga viewers point of view, in their mind there is widespread consensus of their view. only their view seems to count.

          Reply
  2. Moses Herzog

    Does anyone know why the child molester/human trafficker and anti-Semite conspiracy theorist aren’t taking their auspicious tour to red/Republican states like Alabama and Kentucky?? Isn’t that the region that would celebrate their behavior?? Instead the Walk of Shame Twins go to “dirty liberal” California to sell an agenda of murdering public officials, molesting teenage girls, and encouraging minors to live a life of prostitution?
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender/2021/07/17/third-california-venue-cancels-plans-to-host-marjorie-taylor-greene-and-matt-gaetz/?sh=3a3524d26ca2

    “Conservative” Republicans really pick some winners to hang out with, don’t they?? They must be so proud and sleep well every night knowing the type behaviors they endorse. I’m assuming commenter “sammy”, “PeakTrader”, and Bruce Hall have reserved their tickets?? EConned, what say thou??? Do you have your pompoms ready for the Gaetz and Greene show??

    Reply
    1. Moses Herzog

      I just figured out what’s missing here in the Gaetz & Greene Tour of American Degeneracy. They need an opening act or someone to warm up the crowd. How about Republican Judge Roy Moore?? Stalkers of children seem to poll well in the Alabama area, what if they did a tour stop in Cullman Alabama?? I bet Cullman wouldn’t cancel on these three shining lights of the Republican party. Poll numbers for those who stalk children are really good around this area of Cullman:
      https://www.washingtonpost.com/special-election-results/alabama/

      https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/nov/13/roy-moore-threatens-to-sue-washington-post-sexual-misconduct-report

      Reply
    2. pgl

      “Riverside is a diverse and inclusive community, so it is heartening to hear that this event will not move forward. I am disappointed we even got to this point, because these speakers are the antithesis of everything Riverside stands for,” Gaby Plascencia, a nonpartisan member of the Riverside City Council, said in a statement.

      Back when Ronald Reagan was President – I used to spend Sunday mornings running with a group in Riverside. For farm country, it has a reasonable set of residents. I suspect they tend to vote Republican. Laguna Hills certainly is very pro-business Republican territory but they too are not fond of white supremists. So it is not surprising that they did not want to hear from the likes of Marjorie Taylor Greene.

      But one has to wonder about these two clowns hanging out together. After all we know Taylor Greene cheats on her husband whenever she can find someone desperate enough to do her. But Gaetz tends to go for teenagers so maybe she is not old and ugly for Congressman Playboy.

      Reply
      1. pgl

        “not old and ugly”

        Should be too old and ugly. Sorry but the thought of this old hag makes my fingers resist the keyboard.

        Reply
    3. EConnned

      Wait, what? Please be clearer in your question of me because I would hate to misunderstand another rambling.

      Reply
        1. Moses Herzog

          I think we’re going to have to go to crayon drawings with arrows for EConned to follow along. The blog is way too adult for him. He also does not like to argue with more than 1 person at a time on the blog, so whichever teacher has lunch duty today for 3rd graders is going to have to escort him to the slide.

          Reply
          1. EConned

            And Moses Herzog can hardly post without an (irrelevant) YouTube link – just like a 3rd grader who needs audio visuals to keep their attention. Moses contributes less than anyone to discussion – you respond and it’s radio silence.

  3. ltr

    Beijing makes proclamations, and other nations follow what they say like much of their infantile TV propaganda educated citizenry….
    Beijing makes proclamations, and other nations follow what they say like much of their infantile TV propaganda educated citizenry….
    Beijing makes proclamations, and other nations follow what they say like much of their infantile TV propaganda educated citizenry….

    [ https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-07-17/China-completes-world-s-first-ischemia-free-heart-transplantation-11YbKuBcxHy/index.html

    July 17, 2021

    China completes world’s first ischemia-free heart transplantation

    China announced Friday that it performed the world’s first ischemia-free heart transplant surgery at the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yet-sen University in southern China’s Guangzhou. According to Professor He Xiaoshun, the inventor of the surgery, the ground-breaking technique allows the heart to continue beating with a continuous blood supply during the whole procedure. Experts say the development could reshape the current method of transplanting organs, and will greatly enhance the survival rate of recipients. ]

    Reply
  4. ltr

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/07/16/some-welcome-pushback-russian-chinese-assaults-international-order/

    July 16, 2021

    Civilized nations’ efforts to deter Russia and China are starting to add up
    By George F. Will – Washington Post

    [ https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-07-17/China-completes-world-s-first-ischemia-free-heart-transplantation-11YbKuBcxHy/index.html

    July 17, 2021

    China completes world’s first ischemia-free heart transplantation

    China announced Friday that it performed the world’s first ischemia-free heart transplant surgery at the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yet-sen University in southern China’s Guangzhou. According to Professor He Xiaoshun, the inventor of the surgery, the ground-breaking technique allows the heart to continue beating with a continuous blood supply during the whole procedure. Experts say the development could reshape the current method of transplanting organs, and will greatly enhance the survival rate of recipients. ]

    Reply
    1. JohnH

      I couldn’t resist this headline in the NY Times: “ U.S. Habit of Backing Strongman Allies Fed Turmoil in Haiti.”

      I mean, what motivated the Times to go off-message? I mean, everyone knows that all US allies are fervent supporters of freedom, democracy a human rights. Only countries that have the chutzpah to resist being ruled by US satraps lack freedom, democracy and human rights!

      Heresy!!!

      I expect a color revolution will soon break out in the boardroom of of the Times to restore freedom, democracy, and human rights along with its pro-US narrative.

      Reply
      1. ltr

        https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/18/world/americas/haiti-united-states-jovenel-moise.html

        July 18, 2021

        U.S. Habit of Backing Strongman Allies Fed Turmoil in Haiti
        Washington dismissed warnings that democracy was unraveling under President Jovenel Moïse, leaving a gaping leadership void after his assassination.
        By Natalie Kitroeff and Michael Crowley

        As protesters hurled rocks outside Haiti’s national palace and set fires on the streets to demand President Jovenel Moïse’s resignation, President Trump invited him to Mar-a-Lago in 2019, posing cheerfully with him in one of the club’s ornate entryways.

        After members of Congress warned that Mr. Moïse’s “anti-democratic abuses” reminded them of the run-up to the dictatorship that terrorized Haiti in decades past, the Biden administration publicly threw its weight behind Mr. Moïse’s claim on power.

        And when American officials urged the Biden administration to change course, alarmed that Haiti’s democratic institutions were being stripped away, they say their pleas went unheeded — and sometimes never earned a response at all.

        Through Mr. Moïse’s time in office, the United States backed his increasingly autocratic rule, viewing it as the easiest way of maintaining stability in a troubled country that barely figured into the priorities of successive administrations in Washington, current and former officials say.

        Even as Haiti spiraled into violence and political upheaval, they say, few in the Trump administration took seriously Mr. Moïse’s repeated warnings that he faced plots against his life. And as warnings of his authoritarianism intensified, the Biden administration kept up its public support for Mr. Moïse’s claim to power, even after Haiti’s Parliament emptied out in the absence of elections and Mr. Moïse ruled by decree….

        Reply
      2. ltr

        https://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/29/international/americas/haitis-president-forced-out-marines-sent-to-keep.html

        February 29, 2004

        Haiti’s President Forced Out; Marines Sent to Keep Order
        By Lydia Polgreen and Tim Weiner

        PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti — President Jean-Bertrand Aristide, the slum priest who became his country’s first democratically elected president, resigned today under intense pressure from the United States and the threat of an invasion of the capital by armed insurgents, fleeing by jet at dawn under heavy American guard.

        President Bush ordered the deployment of the Marines to Haiti as part of an “interim international force” to restore order. Both France and Canada have agreed to send troops, too….

        Reply
      3. ltr

        https://www.scribd.com/book/506996752/Before-the-Mayflower-A-History-of-the-Negro-in-America-1619-1962

        1962

        Before the Mayflower: A History of the Negro in America, 1619-1962
        By Lerone Bennett

        The black experience in America–starting from its origins in western Africa up to 1961–is examined in this seminal study from a prominent African American figure. The entire historical timeline of African Americans is addressed, from the Colonial period through the civil rights upheavals of the late 1950s to 1961, the time of publication. ”

        [ Haiti, stunningly chronicled. ]

        Reply
  5. ltr

    http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-07/18/c_1310068568.htm

    July 18, 2021

    Nearly 1.45 bln doses of COVID-19 vaccines administered in China

    BEIJING — Nearly 1.45 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered in China as of Saturday, the National Health Commission announced on Sunday.

    http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-07/16/c_1310064675.htm

    July 16, 2021

    China reaches 5 bln doses in annual COVID-19 vaccine capacity

    BEIJING — China’s annual production capacity for COVID-19 vaccines has reached 5 billion doses as of July, said the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT).

    The country has sent up to 570 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines overseas to aid the global fight against the COVID-19 virus, Tian Yulong, chief engineer at the MIIT, told a press conference….

    Reply
  6. ltr

    Paul Krugman argues that just as core inflation indexes were superior to the CPI in gauging price increases in earlier recession and recovery periods, since 2020 core inflation indexes look to be overstating price increases. After all, why should used cars be part of a core index? Krugman then is discounting current increases in core prices as a proper inflation gauge:

    https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1416786559752409093

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=FvRm

    January 15, 2018

    Sticky Consumer Price Index less Shelter and less Food & Energy, 2020-2021

    (Percent change)

    Reply
    1. Moses Herzog

      I like that Krugman calls out Paul Ryan for being the fraud he has always been. The “technocrat” who can’t understand Economics 101. This may be the first and only constructive blog comment you’ve made in the last 6 months ltr. I really didn’t think it was possible for you to do that.

      Reply
  7. Moses Herzog

    Biz Markie passed away. Most likely related to long term effects of Diabetes 2. A great performer and had one of those warm personalities that people naturally gravitate to. I remember when I was still relatively young watching him often a little past mid-afternoon on “Yo MTV Raps” (which I think may have also been aired sometimes on weekends). TV was so different back then. You would in fact see races interact quite often, but it wasn’t anything meant solely for signaling purposes or to make an exhibition of self-righteousness It happened in a natural organic kind of way and wasn’t forced or designed to meet a quota or to have a “token” member on board to “check a box”. I remember back in the days when Ice-T was an actual rapper (not a B-actor on a D-TV perverse exploitation show), asking questions about police’s role in society. Ice=T had a discussion on MTV with Marshall Loeb (journalist and editor of Fortune magazine at the time) about how young people (including Blacks) should be responsible with money and educate themselves on finance and economics. Appearing together with Ice-T gave Marshall Loeb credibility with Balck viewers and a chance to target his message of financial education specifically to the Black community. It was a really great show. That was pre-sellout Ice-T.
    https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/otilliasteadman/biz-markie-tributes-death

    But anyway, Biz Markie never sold out, and he will be missed by those who love good music and appreciate people who are not phonies.

    Reply

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