Aggregate Real Imports and Exports, through the Trade War

From the advance GDP release:

Figure 1: Imports of goods (blue), exports of goods (brown), both in bn. Ch.2012$, SAAR. NBER recession dates shaded gray; orange shading denotes 2017Q1-2020Q4. Source: BEA, 2021Q3 advance release, and NBER.

By the time of the NBER peak at 2019Q4, real imports were 5.9% higher than in 2016Q4 (in log terms).

 

85 thoughts on “Aggregate Real Imports and Exports, through the Trade War”

  1. pgl

    “By the time of the NBER peak at 2019Q4, real imports were 5.9% higher than in 2016Q4 (in log terms)”

    OK but we would normally expect imports to rise that much over 3 years. Now I get Trump told us he would increase net exports by curbing imports via his tariffs. Of course the whole issue of trade wars as noted generations ago by Joan Robinson is that countries like China would play that game limiting our exports.

    The graph seems to suggest exports flat line but could you provide us with the actual increase in real exports over the same period?

  3. ltr

    The “trade war” as was noticed in the Washington Post in 2018, * was an attack on technological advance in China. The effort was to change and limit the development of the Chinese economy.

    * https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/05/04/trump-is-asking-china-to-redo-just-about-everything-with-its-economy/

    May 4, 2018

    Trump is asking China to redo just about everything with its economy
    By Heather Long – Washington Post

    The Trump administration has finally presented the Chinese government with a clear list of trade demands. It’s long and intense (there are eight sections), and President Trump isn’t just asking Chinese President Xi Jinping for a few modifications. He’s asking Xi to completely change his plans to turn the Chinese economy into a tech powerhouse.

    1. ltr

      https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2021/October/weo-report?c=924,134,534,158,111,&s=BCA_NGDPD,&sy=2007&ey=2021&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1

      October 15, 2021

      Current Account Balance as percent of Gross Domestic Product for China, Germany, India, Japan and United States, 2007-2021

      2017

      China ( 1.5)
      Germany ( 7.8)
      India ( – 1.8)
      Japan ( 4.1)
      United States ( – 1.9)

      2021

      China ( 1.6)
      Germany ( 6.8)
      India ( – 1.0)
      Japan ( 3.5)
      United States ( – 3.5)

    2. ltr

      http://www.news.cn/english/2021-11/02/c_1310286288.htm

      November 2, 2021

      More of the world’s top scientists eager to cooperate with China

      SHANGHAI — China’s scientific research started to develop rapidly about 40 years ago and is now at the world’s leading level, and we are eager to cooperate with the country, said Jules Hoffman, the 2011 Nobel laureate in Physiology or Medicine, at a forum in Shanghai.

      The 4th World Laureates Forum (WLF) kicked off on Monday and has brought together more than 130 top global scientists, including 68 Nobel laureates, who will participate through webinars and offline meetings in Shanghai.

      Focusing on basic science promotion, international cooperation and youth development, the three-day event was co-organized by the World Laureates Association (WLA) and the China Association for Science and Technology.

      In addition to the theme of open science, this year’s forum has attached great importance to international scientific and technological cooperation.

      Randy Schekman, winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine and also WLA vice chairman, expressed the importance of international cooperation in the field of basic science….

  4. rsm

    Why not do the standard error calculations for this data? Or is it a “magic number”?

    See also https://ourworldindata.org/trade-data-sources-discrepancies

    《The first lesson is that, for most users of trade data out there, there is no obvious way of choosing between sources. And the second lesson is that, because of statistical glitches, researchers and policymakers should always take analysis of trade data with a pinch of salt. 》

    Why turn a blind eye to glaring inconsistencies in trade data, such as Canada and the US reporting significantly different mutual trade balances? (Not to mention the even more significant difference with China?)

      1. MosesHerzog

        I’m half drunk at this late (early??) hour, but I feel the major victory here is a great intellect (no sarcasm) like Menzie, is admitting he sometimes watches cartoons. Although I “venture” to say (haven’t checked) many of “The Simpsons” writers are/were (over the many years) Jewish. Take out of that what you will kids. I know my German American father would have—and been correct.

      2. rsm

        So why are you still treating trade figures as magic numbers? Magical thinking?

        《Congress may choose through oversight or other means to encourage the responsible U.S. agency to examine
        and adjust its procedures for compiling trade data. In addition, Congress may decide to press or otherwise encourage China’s customs services to conduct a similar review of its trade compilation procedures.》

        But you’re just happily going with the magic numbers you are fed, without including any of the vast uncertainty in your figures, eh?

        Are you like Homer, convinced TV would never lie?

        1. Menzie Chinn Post author

          rsm: As I noted before (and documented in the CRS document), there have been several projects to determine the source of differences between US and China trade figures. If you are so exercised by the disjuncture in US and Chinese statistics, then you might want to read the Fed Notes.

          I don’t understand what your preferred “fix” is. Are you proposing that we just don’t cite any numbers at all, since there is uncertainty involved in them.

          If you have been reading this blog for any length of time, you would know that I often provide caveats regarding data accuracy (e.g., why I don’t cite civilian employment numbers very much, and almost never for state level estimates). But I suspect those subtleties eluded you.

          1. baffling

            “I don’t understand what your preferred “fix” is. Are you proposing that we just don’t cite any numbers at all, since there is uncertainty involved in them.”
            this is typically where the commenter inserts the reference to “shadowstats” or other conspiracy theory that provides superior knowledge compared to the distorted figures released by the government.

        2. Barkley Rosser

          rsm.

          How many times do you need to be told that there are no standard errors for any of these numbers, even as indeed some of them have degrees of non-certainty about them, with indeed Menzie I think frequently noting this for certain numbers he presents. Anybody cooking up supposed such numbers would be engaging in much more fraudulent magic than those reporting these numbers that have been gathered in a serious way, even if many of them are flawed to some extent.

          Speaking of magic, this reminds me of a famous wisecrack by Joan Robinson not about data but about axiomatic theorizing, although perhaps you do not know what that means, rsm, given that you seem to be so stupid you make people like CoRev and Moses Herzog look like they should be boarding a plane to Stockholm to shake the hand of the King of Sweden. So Robinson’s wisecrack, which I think appeared in her book Economic Philosophy, was something like “Why do economic theorists make such fuss about pulling a rabbit from a hat after they put the rabbit into the hat in full view of the audience?”

    2. Barkley Rosser

      rsm,

      Oh, there you go again, demanding “standard errors.” Guess what? Your source notes that there are these competing data sources that disagree. Yes, that is a problem. But the guess what is there is no underlying probability distribution driving any of this. So there are no meaningful “standard errors,” which are only meaningful in a situation where there is such an underlying probability distribution.

      When are you going to understand this and stop spouting this useless demand for standard errors that will never be reported because they do not exist?

      1. pgl

        rsm in a former life must have been some litigator in international tax law. It seems almost everyone of their petitions to the Tax Court whenever the IRS challenged their client’s transfer pricing policies start with the trio that the IRS is being “arbitrary, capricious, and unreasonable”.

        Of course the rest of their brief fail to note anything arbitrary or capricious or unreasonable about the economic analysis from the IRS agent. But I guess one petition succeeded in a single court case, copying and pasting the same tired old yawn becomes mandatory. Such a waste of trees!

    3. Ivan

      That is the weirdest comments here in a long time (and we have had some serious head scratchers). How would you calculate standard errors on these data? Single source with an “n” of 1, what type of statistics could provide a “standard error” on this type of data?

  6. CoRev

    VA elections are over and it was a clean sweep of Governor, Lt Governor and Attorney General for the republicans. Kudos to B Rosser Jr for pointing out what he had been seeing just prior to the election.

    1. pgl

      Yep – blatantly lying to the voters and stirring up sheer racism is still a winning strategy. Herr Trump is pleased.

        1. pgl

          If you had been paying attention – you would have known I was referring to that lying POS who won the governor’s race. I’m sure Ms. Sears is a decent person and have never said a thing about her.

        2. pgl

          Hey Sammy – meet Winsome Sears:

          https://winsomesears.com/issues/

          Gee Sammy – she is a lot more than your pet Uncle or Aunt Tom. An immigrant which means the likes of your boy Trump would have not let her enter our nation. Of course she served in the military unlike your draft dodging boy Donald Trump.

          And some decent proposals on real policy issues and not one mention of that Critical Race Theory dog whistle that you and your ilk were blowing.

          1. sammy

            Barkley,
            So the racists voted against a black woman, for another black woman? Yes, this is obviously racist.

          2. Barkley Rosser

            sammy,

            Well, for all we know maybe some of them did not vote at all. As it was, the lg race was intermediate in terms of the matgin, with YOungkin in the gov race having the largest margin, while the AG race was the closest, called for GOP Miyares only last evening, Herring being a two term incumbent.

      2. paddy kivlin

        scary parents’ supremacy, climate (biden 50car motorcade) boondoggling and denying dead people’s votes are the platform of the too smart by half.

        #TheBrandonAdministration

      3. CoRev

        PGL claims: “If you had been paying attention – you would have known I was referring to that lying POS who won the governor’s race.” Menzie, POS conforms with which of the comment rules?

        What were the lie(s)? If he is relating to CRT for his racism claim, then it was the parents in a predominantly Dem county that rejected CRT, and other items in the curriculum. That racist county BTW still went for Terry McAuliffe.

        1. pgl

          Youngkin did push this CRT lie. And he was encouraged by Trump to do so. So there were two lies as Youngkin pretended he was not coordinated strategies. Of course you will deny, deny, deny. After all – you probably spinning the claim that 1/6 was an Antifa false flag.

        2. baffling

          anybody who implied that critical race theory was taught in the schools was simply lying. anybody who pushed that view was lying.

          1. CoRev

            Baffled, tell it to the parents of VA students. It was a parent not a political uprising. Youngkin chose the parents side and McAuliffe didn’t.

          2. Ivan

            I wish the democrats would be a little smarter on that. Any democrat who is facing this new dog whistle should put out adds saying: “My opponent is a coward communist on the issue of critical race theory. I propose that any teacher who have been teaching CRT in K to 12 should be jailed for life”.

          3. CoRev

            Baffled, wrong again. Albemarle County in 2019. “Albemarle County Public Schools says it isn’t teaching Critical Race Theory in its schools.

            ACPS says it focuses on a different CRT, culturally responsive teaching, which has been in place for the past few years.

            While the two share the same acronym, the county says they are different.” So different that: “A teacher at Joseph T. Henley Middle School in Albemarle County, Virginia, has been ousted for sharing the County’s “radical ideas” on Critical Race Theory (CRT) with parents.” The controversy generated generated a write in campaign for one school board seat. It failed, as do most write in campaigns.

            I’ll let you do your own research.

          4. Baffling

            Corev, Virginia does not teach critical race theory in the classroom.
            Now they do teach that slavery has had a negative impact on the black population in america. Do you have a problem with that being taught to our children?

          5. pgl

            “Baffled, tell it to the parents of VA students. It was a parent not a political uprising. Youngkin chose the parents side and McAuliffe didn’t.”

            This is like saying Trump had nothing to do with the 1/6 riot. After all – he ran back to the safety of the White House while those domestic terrorists did his bidding for him.

        3. pgl

          Here is the key portion of what I originally wrote on this topic:

          “Youngkin is running on a campaign to stop teaching Critical Race Theory to kids in school. Of course Critical Race Theory is not being taught but stirring up racial divides has always worked well for Trumpian racists.”

          CoRev cannot deny either sentence. No – this lying troll deflects by noting certain voters fell for this lie. Nice try CoRev even if your attempt at rebuttal is dumb even for you.

          1. CoRev

            PGL claims: “Here is the key portion of what I originally wrote on this topic:

            “Youngkin is running on a campaign…””

            Not here you didn’t write anything similar to this. How desperate is someone claims someone else lies when it is clearly themself lying?

            You have the cart before the horse on CRT in VA. It was the parents of students that protesting the curricula. They saw what was actually being taught to their children, and not you, Youngkin nor the many liberal pundits who claim it isn’t/wasn’t taught.

          2. T. Shaw

            If you’re in a hole, stop digging!

            I’m trying to be helpful here.

            VA Democrats destroyed themselves in the election.

            Tens of thousands of parents think their kids are being indoctrinated against their wills. So, you want to tell the moms they’re liars.

            That should work almost as well as did calling them “domestic terrorists.” and “white supremacists.”

            It don’t mean nothing. Everything you Dems touch turns to poop.

            We’re going to love 2022.

          3. pgl

            “You have the cart before the horse on CRT in VA. It was the parents of students that protesting the curricula. They saw what was actually being taught to their children, and not you, Youngkin nor the many liberal pundits who claim it isn’t/wasn’t taught.”

            Dude – you are lying and everyone knows it. What was actually being taught to their children? Repeat after me troll – CRT was not being taught to them. But Youngkin and your ilk claimed it was, which was the racist garbage I noted.

            You can try to deny this reality all you want. Which only means you condone this racist garbage. Now get you white hood and enjoy the KKK meetings this weekend.

  8. pgl

    Trump takes credit for Youngkin winning in Virginia:

    https://subscription.nydailynews.com/MTRDigitalLJ?Ofrgp_ID=5208&g2i_or_o=SB&g2i_or_p=Index_Outd&siteCode=850&g2i_or_os=NYKI21&int=nav2

    But Youngkin wants to claim he ran without Trump’s help. So which is it?

    Well it does turn out that Trump and Youngkin had lots of conversations during the campaign. I’ll be the ranch that Trump gave Youngkin the idea to argue that Critical Race Theory should not be taught in elementary and high schools. Of course it is NOT taught there but what a dog whistle to stir up Trump’s racist base in Virginia.

      1. Barkley Rosser

        Youngkin will not have quite as much leeway as DeSantis has as the GOP only controls one house of the legilslature. The State Senate was not up for election and remains narrowly controlled by by the Dems. And while I am not remotely a fan of Youngkin, he seems not quite as evilly sociopathic as DeSantis.

    2. T. Shaw

      It’s not only glorious VA elections.

      In other non nobis news, the Dem socialist candidate for Buffalo, NY mayor was defeated by write-in votes. The NYT article pointed out that Walton would be “the first socialist mayor of a major American city since 1960.”

      They called suburban Moms ‘domestic terrorists.’ How did that go over in Harrisonburg, VA, Sparky?

      1. Barkley Rosser

        T. Shaw,

        Maybe you did not catch it that I was forecasting the outcome that happened before it did, with CoRev even giving me kudos for doing so. What is your problem? Clearly you are just a total moron.

        As it was, some of these people are domestic terrorists. Right here in Rockingham County that surrounds Harrisonburg the disruptions of the County Schjool Board meetings got so bad, they did not hold any for two months in a row, and that is a board full of nothing but Republicans. Some of these disrupters were threatening the lives of board members, as happened also in Loudon county, where some of those doing so were from outside the county.

        I don’t know about you, but I consider threatening peoples’s lives and going to their homes and trespassing on their property to make loud noises and disrupt their families, and also even threaten their children, which has also happened, to be domestic terrorism. Do you not think so? Or does it only count as that if they actually kill somebody? I note that this has indeed gone beyond threats to actual physical violence in some cases around the country, with some of these people physically attacking either teachers or even students, although so far not school board members. Do you consider this sort of behavior to be “free speech” as the GOP candidates in VA called it?

        So, T.S., go ahead and tell us how physicsally attacking teachers and students and threatening the lives os school board members is just “free speech” and not domestic terrorism.. Go ahead and tell us.

    3. Ivan

      I seriously doubt Trump has ever given useful advice to anybody on anything. However, Youngkin had enough money to get the best of the best election advisers and yes “Critical Race Theory” is the “welfare queen” issue of today.

    4. pgl

      Of course CoRev is now saying I never said anything like this. CoRev lies even more than Donald Trump.

    2. paddy kivlin

      usa, india and china at one time cared about energy reliability.

      if the coal is replaced by natural gas, an oil supply is needed for back up. if the coal is replaced by wind and solar there will be no back up when the weather makes the ‘spec sheets’ and the un-validated models not pertinent.

    2. Barkley Rosser

      Bruce,

      I have to admit I agree with those poking at Biden for his contradiction of simultaneously moving to limit oil production in the US while also calling on OPEC and Russia to increase oil production so a to keep down gasoline prices in the US. Yes, those do turn out to be politically sensitive, and while most of the attention on the VA election has been about the education issue, there is plenty of polling out there showing a lot of people upset about gasoline prices, which unfortunately shot up quite sharply in VA during the last two weeks. Given that crude prices are now falling (or fell a lot yesterday) we might actually see those gasoline prices actually declining some in he near future. But too late to help the Dem candidates in VA.

    3. Ivan

      Are you seriously suggesting that the US president can ban export of coal? – or are you just proudly displaying your ignorance.

      2. pgl

        Bruce Hall wants us to believe he made up his latest economic stupidity all by himself but check out this nonsense from Climate Depot, which is a project of CFACT – a pro fossil fuel climate change denier group:

        https://www.climatedepot.com/2021/11/02/king-coal-roars-back-u-s-coal-fired-power-increases-22-in-2021-as-natural-gas-prices-doubled-1st-increase-in-u-s-coal-use-since-2014/

        Come on Bruce – we get you excel in economic stupidity. We know you are Steno Sue for Kelly Anne Conway. But next time at least try to be honest where you have received your marching orders.

    4. pgl

      Bruce Hall has always been two faced as it gets but DAMN! I thought you were all for increasing export demand. BTW if we did not sell them coal – someone else would and you would be bashing Biden for the lost opportunity.

      BTW – it is not the selling of coal that pollutes the air – rather it is the USE of coal. So the relevant criteria is how much coal a nation is consuming.

      Now I get you are too dumb to know the difference between consumption versus exports so I guess we can excuse your latest dumb comment.

    5. pgl

      Now I get Bruce Hall is incapable of doing his own independent research but it took me 2 seconds to find this list of coal exports by nation:

      https://www.worldstopexports.com/coal-exports-country/

      The US share in 2020 was a mere 7.4%. Russia’s coal exports were twice ours. I guess Bruce Hall is pimping for Putin wishing Russia to get the export revenue and not the US. Indonesia exports even more than Russia and Australia’s coal exports were five times that of the US.

      Point being if the US was not selling coal, other nations including Russia (who must be paying Bruce’s rent these days) would be. Of course Russia skipped those meetings in Scotland.

    6. pgl

      I decided to go back and re-read this blog’s excellent post from Jeff Frankel on fossil fuel markets. I want to see if it mentioned the spike in coal prices which it did. Now I seriously doubt Bruce Hall read it and even if he did – it was over his limited understanding of economics so to make things simple for Brucie boy, here is FRED on coal prices:

      https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCOALAUUSDM

      Notice the global price of coal has skyrocketed. Now a smart coal producer would take advantage of the increase in coal demand right now. But of course Bruce “no relationship to Robert” Hall would say sell low and buy high!

    7. paddy kivlin

      US drawing from its strategic petrol reserve(spr) since July, about 30 million barrels.

      good thing it was built up over the past several years.

      1. baffling

        in recent years the spr has been required to sell, much having to do with making sure the mechanisms for distribution are still working properly when needed, as well as maintenance and upgrades. Since the inventory can hold over 700 million barrels, your noted distribution is not very impactful to the reserve itself.

  12. ltr

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/politics/congress-budget-tricks.html

    November 4, 2021

    In Spending Bill, Democrats Rely on Budget Gimmicks They Once Derided
    Budget experts say true cost of legislation could be $4 trillion as lawmakers rely on sleights of hand to bring down the price tag.
    By Alan Rappeport

    WASHINGTON — At an impromptu news conference this week, Senator Joe Manchin III, Democrat of West Virginia, lamented the “shell games” and “budget gimmicks” he said his party was using to artificially reduce the $1.85 trillion price tag of the spending bill moving through Congress, saying the real cost was probably double that amount.

    “This is a recipe for economic crisis,” Mr. Manchin warned, suggesting that he would not support a bill without understanding its potential impact on the economy.

    Four years ago, as Republicans marched ahead with a $1.5 trillion tax cut, top Democrats in Congress assailed them for hiding the true cost of the legislation, arguing that it was “loaded with budget gimmicks” and packed with “stealthy tax tricks” that would saddle the nation with even more debt. Now, as they race to finish their own trillion-dollar domestic policy package, Democrats are employing their own maneuvers to downplay the cost of their bill.

    President Biden’s new framework for tackling climate change, bolstering child care and a wide range of other economic programs assumes that the package will be fully paid for with an estimated $2 trillion in tax increases on corporations and high earners.

    But budget experts, along with some moderate Democrats, say the true cost of the legislation will be closer to $4 trillion because of the way the programs are structured and accounted for in the budgetary process….

    [ This was surprising to me, but should it be disturbing? ]

    1. ltr

      By contrast, the current yearly cost of the Defense Department budget is over $450 billion:

      https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=3&isuri=1&select_all_years=0&nipa_table_list=5&series=q&1=5&2=2007&3=2018&4=q&5=x&first_year=2017&6=0&7=survey&last_year=2020&scale=-9&thetable=

      October 28, 2021

      Defense spending was 58.3% of federal government consumption and investment in July through September 2021. *

      $911.0 / $1,562.1 = 58.3%

      Defense spending was 22.4% of all government consumption and investment in July through September 2021.

      $911.0 / $4,077.0 = 22.4%

      Defense spending was 3.9% of GDP in July through September 2021.

      $911.0 / $23,173.5 = 3.9%

      * Billions of dollars

  13. baffling

    “Nobody elected him to be F.D.R., they elected him to be normal and stop the chaos,” said Spanberger…

    for all the bernie and aoc promoters out there, this comment from a democratic representative from virginia is some pretty good advice going forward. and some advice biden should heed. his willingness to cut back dramatically the total reconciliation bill shows awareness he bit off more than he could chew. in hindsight, probably should been more focused on a few things rather than a lot of things. especially with a democratic caucus that does not get along. time to go back and win a bunch of little battles rather than try for the hail mary.

    1. Barkley Rosser

      baff,

      As the now proven insider here on VA politics, which indeed I am, I think Spanberger represents the key to next year’s race for control of the House of Representatives. She represents what was this year in VA a key location and will next year, a suburban district of Richmond, where they are more racist than in Northern VA. She barely made it in 2019, and she will be under sharp attack and competition next year. If I had to pick a single Congressional district in the nation that represents the ultimate outcome next year, I am not able to name one more important or symbolic than this one. She is an excellent Representative, and I hope she is reelected. But, I forecast now and here: If Spanberger loses next year, the House of Representatives will switch to GOP control.

      1. baffling

        barkley, i think you will see a change in gop strategy in the upcoming year. they will be working to enhance the position off bernie and aoc in the democratic power structure. why? republicans understand there are not enough votes in support of those more expansive visions. the more democrats advocate for large changes in the social structure, the less seats they will win. just as spanberger said.
        if democrats were going to go big or go home, they needed to do it a couple of months ago. today it is more clear that moderate democrats will not vote for those big programs. every day that passes, manchin and sinema win while the aoc’s and bernie’s lose. every day that passes increases the probability that a senator or representative leaves office (death, scandal, etc). As republicans control the state level governments, the odds increase that democrats will continue to lose their control of the senate or house through new appointments. democrats need to learn to be more pragmatic. take half of the deal today, and keep working to get the rest tomorrow. holding out and demanding to get the entire deal now only works when you have a strong hand. fdr had a strong hand. biden is a weiner tweet away from losing control of the senate or house. that reality needs to be accepted.

        1. CoRev

          Baffled thinks: “i think you will see a change in gop strategy in the upcoming year. they will be working to enhance the position off bernie and aoc in the democratic power structure. ” I don’t remember seeing much notice of either in the VA races.

          I think you have already seen the shift in strategy to run locally on universal issues, such as education, inflation, energy policy, etc. The negative changes in these issues can be laid directly and blamed upon the current Dem-wide policies, not just bernie and aoc.

          Also, I think the GOP has well learned the political lessons taught by the Dems in the past administration. Investigate, impeach and remove. Not Biden but the cabinet members and agency heads responsible for some of the most egregious policy implementations. You might also look at problematic Congressional approvals for future appointments and military promotions.

          1. pgl

            “I think you have already seen the shift in strategy to run locally on universal issues, such as education, inflation, energy policy, etc. The negative changes in these issues can be laid directly and blamed upon the current Dem-wide policies, not just bernie and aoc.”

            What a load of rubbish. On education all you have done is try to claim VA schools were teaching Critical Race Theory – which is a bold faced lie. Now if you wanted to talk about things like Charter Schools, you might be raising a legit issue (of course one you do not understand).

            But Biden is to blame for rising energy prices? Lord – even Faux News is not this dishonest. Yes – Faux News lies about inflation routinely and it has become standard Trumpian intellectual garbage that it was Biden who created the supply chain issues which started last year.

            I have to give it to you CoRev – with all the Trumpian liars, you are the king of the hill!

      2. CoRev

        BRJr, “But, I forecast now and here: If Spanberger loses next year, the House of Representatives will switch to GOP control.” I doubt seriously that a single seat is a bell weather for next year. What you saw and heard in your district is being said and felt across the country.

        In the next few months we may very well see many Dem incumbents decide to forego election, that the risk is too great for the pain of losing. The run/not run decision cycle is shortening, so it won’t be too long to see if that prediction comes true.

      3. Barkley Rosser

        baff,

        I think you are overdoing your claim of Bernie/AOC not compromising and pushing extreme measures. They have compromised a lot. The cost is down frmo $3.5 trillion to $1.85, with the progressive wing accepting that. Who is holding things up still are so-called moderates, with in partuclar Manchin continuing to move the goal posts every time one of his demands are met.

        1. pgl

          Speaker Pelosi is trying to move both bills in the House. Yes the 6 moderates are moving the goal posts but so are the progressives. Biden needs to head down to the Capitol and tell both sides to get with the program.

        2. baffling

          “I think you are overdoing your claim of Bernie/AOC not compromising and pushing extreme measures.”
          they have compromised too late. every day that passes, the amount of money that manchin and sinema will allow to pass drops. if you look at this situation, manchin and sinema hold almost all of the power-either one can veto the entire democratic party. bernie and aoc actually have extremely little power, as they need every single one of the democrats to vote their way for success.

          “Who is holding things up still are so-called moderates,”
          this is the wrong way to look at things. this view assumes that the moderates are willing to vote for the big numbers, and just delaying the inevitable. i don’t think that is the case. i don’t think they have an interest in voting for the bigger bill. democratic leadership seems unwilling to accept that reality.

          the infrastructure bill can be passed today. the spending bill can be passed tomorrow in reduced form. take what you can get now. if they continue to stall, a very real possibility is that neither bill will get passed, or at best only the infrastructure bill. when you don’t hold a strong hand, you need to be pragmatic. the reason you can bluff a win in poker is the other side has no idea how strong (or weak) your hand is. it is very clear to all involved that right now the democrats (especially the progressives) have a very weak hand-but it is still a winning hand. best to win this battle, and keep fighting in the bigger war.

          1. Baffling

            As if on cue, the infrastructure bill passed last night. That was good. And the spending bill will get a vote in about a week. The sooner the better. But aoc and company voted against the infrastructure bill, so it passed with some republican support. This was a mistake by aoc and company. It gives the moderates an excuse to vote against the next bill. But this time no republicans will bail them out. Aoc and company just gave manchin and sinema an excuse to vote no. Rank amateurs vote to prove a point, while good politicians get the bill passed. Hope i am wrong and the bill passes. But why do democrats always make life hard on themselves?

  14. Ivan

    So we put tariffs on raw materials (aluminum and steel). The effects was that the products we make (from those raw materials) became more expensive and less competitive with similar products from countries that didn’t tax those raw materials. I mean NOBODY could have predicted (unless they got at least a gentleman’s C in Econ 101). In countries that didn’t have an idiot as President, retaliatory tariffs were places on US end products where local producers needed a little help to be competitive. If you want to institute stupid policies at least don’t be stupid about how you do it.

  15. Barkley Rosser

    BTW, I just checked, and oil prices fell even more today, with WTI now below $80 [per barrel after being near $85 for much of the last two weeks. So indeed we may well see gasoline prices decline in the near future, but, again, too late to help the Dem candidates in VA.

    And otherwise it is pretty hard to justify the claims by many GOP commentators that the US economy “has collapsed” since Biden took over. The increase in i9nflation seems to be retreating, and yesterday saw the lowest number of jobs lost since before the pandemic. People are worried about their jobs when we are seeing record quit rate levels as people seek better jobs at higher pay? This is insane. And then we also have the record high stock market, which Trump always claimed was the best measure of the economy, even if that is arguable. But it certainly has not collapsed as he predicted.

    And for anybody who wants me to report what I heard in this highly GOP part of VA, what I heard was people whining about gasoline prices and almost nothing else, but that whining was plenty loud, even as it may turn out be based on a temporaty surge that is about to disappear.

    1. Baffling

      The whining about the economy is simply gop spin. Unfortunately when you repeat something enough times, they begin to believe it. The economy is actually in pretty good shape right now. But i doubt you get a single republican to admit that reality.

  16. Floxo

    Tariffs are ineffective in reversing either a current account or trade deficit. A policy that could succeed is lower consumption through taxation, then divert revenue to some unproductive use; for example, increase gold or foreign currency reserves. This reduces imports leaving export demand unchanged – classic mercantilism. A policy not recommended for any developed economy. (A developing economy may benefit as it increases the return on capital, attracting foreign investment which can be more productive than local investment, spurring growth through technological advancement).

    Typically, a trade deficit is no great cause for concern. In part, it reflects a national income greater than the value of production – an expected outcome for developed economies. A persistently large current account deficit (spending more than you earn) is more troubling, but probably manageable with appropriate fiscal and monetary policy.

    Equally, inflation is a non-issue. A global post covid stimulus has materially impacted supply leading to sustained inflation in a number of economies. The reason central banks are relaxed about this is because sustained inflation requires a cost push from wages which has signally failed to emerge.

  19. pgl

    ““A teacher at Joseph T. Henley Middle School in Albemarle County, Virginia, has been ousted for sharing the County’s “radical ideas” on Critical Race Theory (CRT) with parents.” The controversy generated generated a write in campaign for one school board seat. It failed, as do most write in campaigns. I’ll let you do your own research.”

    CoRev’s reply to Baff when Baff correctly noted that Critical Race Theory is not taught in VA schools. I did do the research. This bogus claim is being pushed by Breitbart and other Trumpian right wing rags. Yes – this is research according to CoRev. Others have noted CoRev lies about everything – I dunno but this racist troll is certainly lying about this.

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