Wells Fargo “Pressure Gauge” for Supply Chain Pressures

From Wells Fargo today:

In short, the fever may be starting to break, particularly as goods demand has cooled and allowed for some domestic shipping measures to catch up, but a tight labor market and sustained back-up at ports tell us that we have a long way to go before we can point to a definitive improvement, let alone call the all clear.

Below is the summary graphic:

 

A related supply chain pressure index developed by the NY Fed was discussed here in January.

 

 

24 thoughts on “Wells Fargo “Pressure Gauge” for Supply Chain Pressures”

  1. Moses Herzog

    Seeing more train traffic where I am (very centrally located, arguably a “hub city”). Is that a dependable barometer?? Probably not, but I don’t think “anecdotal” or semi-arbitrary data is all bad. If nothing else it provides fodder for scratching the bottom of your beard or in my case scratching the peach fuzz around your chin.

  2. Moses Herzog

    I was suspended for a week on another social media site for simply asking a question. And on top of it I was sober when I typed it. I must be living right people. I still can’t figure out how I always seem to get more people pissed at me when I’m not drinking. What’s hilarious is, I can do everything I did when not suspended (downloads, reading, etc) but make comments. This is “punishment”?? I mean if Menzie or James Kwak did that to me it would hurt a little, but a joke hypocritical website?? Oh no, “Mortimer” and “Maynard” the SJW posers can’t read what I write Will life go on?? This is like being told I can never be a guest on Oprah.

  3. rsm

    How accurate were there product sales figures again, when they were signing up customers without them knowing? Why should anyone believe them about anything?

    1. Barkley Rosser

      rsm,

      You are right, of course. Business have no idea what their sales figures are. It is all just noise. Economic decisionmakers should just give up and start throwing darts at boards, to the extent they are not doing so already. No data anybody provides them about anything is worth anything, just universal noise noise noise.

  4. Moses Herzog

    I’m gonna say something I have the sense I will regret later. But I am reading John Boehner’s congressional memoirs or whatever you wanna call it. Here is a guy/politician I pretty much couldn’t stand his entire public life, and I’m up to page 33 on this book, and I’ll be damned if I don’t find it to be a highly entertaining read up to this point, and even find the SOB pretty likable on the written page. There, I said it. And no, it’s not because of the cover.

    1. baffling

      it may be easy to dislike him based on his politicks. but he was not Machiavellian, like McConnell. you dislike when somebody cheats to win, which Mitch likes to do. Boehner was more of one to follow the rules, written or otherwise. Mitch is unreliable in that regard.

  5. James

    Dear Menzie,

    My interested observer take is that the U.S. had a spike in consumer demand after the Trump/GOP recession, however, I wonder if consumers have had enough price gouging and will cut back on goods demand in coming months?
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RETAILSMSA

    (BTW, I know this is off topic – but I notice that our former governor, Mr. Walker, has been spouting off on Twitter about the anniversary of his public union busting Act 10 and his “reforms” – as a former state employee – who left because I found I was withdrawing funds from my IRA to help pay for both everyday household expenses (new winter boots) and things like car repairs – to seek private employment – I believe that Mr Walker/WIGOP have done immense economic damage to Wisconsin. One is lower GDP trend growth compared to similar states like Minn that retained progressive Dem policies, increased economic inequality, and another is chronic teacher and healthcare provider shortages as these seek better employment elsewhere. https://schoolforworkers.wisc.edu/wisconsin-public-
    worker-unions-post-act-10/

    Thanks!

  7. ltr

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-02-17/Chinese-mainland-records-92-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-17IBcrKrEGc/index.html

    February 17, 2022

    Chinese mainland reports 92 new COVID-19 cases

    The Chinese mainland recorded 92 confirmed COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, with 35 linked to local transmissions and 57 from overseas, data from the National Health Commission showed on Thursday.

    A total of 32 new asymptomatic cases were also recorded, and 721 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.

    Confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland now total 107,288 with the death toll remaining unchanged at 4,636 since January last year.

    Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-02-17/Chinese-mainland-records-92-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-17IBcrKrEGc/img/64ef4a412fc84df8a2003d1daaab8c2b/64ef4a412fc84df8a2003d1daaab8c2b.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new imported cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-02-17/Chinese-mainland-records-92-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-17IBcrKrEGc/img/8983409c337146c4855dbcde1f08d600/8983409c337146c4855dbcde1f08d600.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-02-17/Chinese-mainland-records-92-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-17IBcrKrEGc/img/37adb1c3e3f34f4fbbe6d3525a2f1c95/37adb1c3e3f34f4fbbe6d3525a2f1c95.jpeg

  8. pgl

    https://news.yahoo.com/us-challenges-russia-step-back-183211855.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

    Putin has already had his thugs attack towns in East Ukraine which took out a kindergarten. Of course this is false flag so expect a lot of dishonesty from Putin and his pet poodles which of late has included JohnH for some reason.

    Look – everyone here is hoping Russia will not invade but we all know Putin is a liar. And it seems there are people here that are repeating Putin’s lies.

  9. Barkley Rosser

    So I have just posted on Econospeak an attempt to sort out the current confusion on Russia/Ukraine, given my inside sources o information. After all, on the one hand Putin is telling Russians troops will come home from Belarus after exercises and he is already withdrawing troops, but then US authorities say satellites see 7000 more troops “near Ukrainian border” and a major cyber attack on Ukraine has happened. Whassup?

    I think he will keep his promise to withdraw the troops from Belarus when the exercises end on Feb. 20, same day Winter Olympics end. But they only amount to about 35,000, with there being around 150,000 total Russian troops “near the Ukrainian border,” with it unlear where the fres 7000 went, probably not to Belarus. He will still seriously threaten Ukraine, even with all the troops withdrawn from Belarus. The one positive on that removal is that it will lower the probability of a direct attack on Kyiv, which is not too far from the Belarus/Ukraine border.

    As for the video of troops being “withdrawn,” that showed a train crossing the new bridge from Crimea to Russia proper. So, some troops pulled out of Crimea, whooop de doo, and him emphasxing he built a bridge to attach it firmly to Russia. The other message on that one is obvious.

    Ignatius accurately says we do not know what “Putin’s endgame is,” and I agree. I do not, and he does not say what it is on Russian media, which continues to mostly focus on thr Winter Olympics, although they are about to end. He has claimed many things and demanded many things, an it is not clear just what will really put him off, if anything. I think he is no longer looking at a full ;scale invasion of Uktaine as a whole, but attention now shifts back to its eastern part and the unresolvled issue of the separatist republics, not to mention the floating matter of Ukaine NATO membership. The lower Duma has just passed a bill calling for Putin to recognize the Donbas republics as he has previously Transniestria, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia. Maybe doing that will satisfy his ego and lead him to a broader pullback, mot just from Belarus.

    1. Anonymous

      i am not hopeful,

      maybe we will not start ww iii, but odds are worst i’ve felt since 1983.

      a lot fewer first strike targets these days…..

      1. Barkley Rosser

        A.,

        “we” will stat ww III? Who is the “we” you are talking about here? You are not blaming Putn for such a war if he invades Ukraine?

        1. Anonymous

          do “we” have an exit strategy? assurance that “we” will run a “prisoner” or ‘burglar’ dilemma game before “we” go nuclear?

          “we” is both nuke armed sides.

          “we” (forest gumps on both sides) thought a soviet invasion across the iron curtain would remain tactical for only a few days before some of the “we” got off time table or lost enough ground… might be why it never materialized.

          if “we” get in to it over donetz one of the “we” might push a button.

          neither in the “we” is innocent, no matter what is floating in the blovosphere.

          tcm is running dr strangelove in the next week or so.

          i saw a rumor once that tom schelling advised the crew on the movie ‘failsafe’….

          do “we” see a red line?

          the susposed kgb wrtten ’99 red balloons’ was personal in the day. i like the german language version best!

          if “we” include watch officer involved inthe us navy ship collisions….

        2. Moses Herzog

          @ Barkley Junior
          If I were you, I would cease discussing this topic. You have shown anything but your claimed deep knowledge of the country and/or Putin.

          In short “Quit while you’re behind”. The more you type on this topic, the more you embarrass yourself, and the more comments will be pointed to later as a complete misreading of events. Get away from the ego–expanding punch bowl.

          1. Barkley Rosser

            Moses,

            Really? how have I embarrassed myself? Offhand, I think I have provided accurate information about a lot of matters none of you know much about.

            Do you wish to revive the claim you made on another thread that I am a “dumb ass” who does not deserve tenure? I note that you are the one who did not accept an invitation to participate in a semnar with Menzie because you somehow thought that if you sent me an email with your email addrss (obviously), I would somehow know that this was coming from “Moses Herzog,” even if you managed to avoid identifying yourself as such in that message. I believe anybody here understands that for all of my brilliance there is no way I would have been able to figure out that a message from you was from “Moses Herzog” unless you identified yourseelf as such. But, somehow you were afraid for your “privacy,” so did not send a message.

            I have to ask, was this the thinking of somebody smart or of somebody acting like a d.a. (and I do not mean a district attorney)?

          2. Barkley Rosser

            BTW, it may be that Russian troops will stay in Belarus after the exercises are over, and they are still going on and will end on Sunday, although earlier somewhere you declared that this was all nonsense based on nothing. Anyway, in WaPo today I saw that Lukashenka is talking about how he may ask Putin to leave some or all of the Russian troops in Belarus once the exercises are completed on Sunday, when they are supposed to return home, as was loudly advertised on Russian media about a week ago.

            Needless to say, Lukashenka may be facing a possible invasion from Ukraine, with Zelensky having written a manifesto some months ago about how Belarus should be united with Ukraine under the rule of the latter. So he may well need those Russian troops for self-defense, the poor thing.

            Aside from this possible change in what might happen with the Russian troops in Belarus after the exercises end on Sunday, is there anything in what I posted above that you seem to be ridiculling without a shred of specificity that is actually wrong or embarrassing? Offhand you have been the one embarrassing yourself, going on about how Russian troops were sent into “south east Romania” as part of the Belarus exercises, showing that you had no idea where that was or what that was or why or when those troops got there, which I had to explain to you, although you never acknowledged that explanation or that it was correct. But then I understand it involved a bit more history and geography than you know.

    2. Ulenspiegel

      “we do not know what “Putin’s endgame is,” and I agree.”

      Yes. To invade Ukraine and destroy most of the Ukrainian forces does not really help if the Russian forces are much too weak for an occupation, the economic strain comes on top, Russia is economically a medium power, not more.

      Instead of assuming a cunning plan on Putin’s side I am more in the camp that Putin has tried to get concessions from or even a government change in Ukraine but failed, now he needs a face saving solution.

  10. pgl

    “I think he is no longer looking at a full ;scale invasion of Uktaine as a whole, but attention now shifts back to its eastern part and the unresolvled issue of the separatist republics, not to mention the floating matter of Ukaine NATO membership. The lower Duma has just passed a bill calling for Putin to recognize the Donbas republics as he has previously Transniestria, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia. Maybe doing that will satisfy his ego and lead him to a broader pullback, mot just from Belarus.”

    Of course this would be a land grab accomplished by invasion. The rest of the world should never recognize such redrawing of maps by force.

    Then again we saw Princeton Steve calling for one of his “economic” solutions where Ukraine and the rest of the world to make a deal to accomplish the same land grab. Like Putin would not see this as a green light to expand his corrupt power to other Eastern European nations.

    1. Barkley Rosser

      pgl,

      The invasions of Crimea and effectively the Donvbas republics have already happened. It may get down to in some sense ratifying those. The Minsk Accords were supposed to bring peace to the Donbas republics, but neither side has followed through on them, with Russia not removing military support, and the Ukrainian government not accepting the degree of autonomy proposed for them. We shall see. I think a deal on them would be the easiest way out of this mess.

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