Despite the improvement in nominal exports ascribed to Wisconsin after Trump, real exports haven’t really recovered – and may not until global economic recovery. What does this mean for Wisconsin employment?
Figure 1: Real “exports” of goods originating in Wisconsin, deflated by US PPI-all commodities in millions 1982$, n.s.a. (blue, left log scale), and real export-weighted value of US dollar for Wisconsin, 1988=100 (red, right low scale). NBER defined recession dates peak-to-trough shaded gray;, orange dashed line denotes March 2018 when Section 232 and Section 301 measures are announced. Source: Bureau of Census via FRED, Dallas Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.
While Wisconsin export growth stalled during the dollar appreciation of 2014-15, growth went negative in the wake of the announcement of Section 232 and Section 301 measures, even with a fairly steady dollar. That indicated a failure of the Trump browbeating approach to trade policy – retaliation (and associated heightened economic policy uncertainty) did Wisconsin no favors in the export realm.
The following caveat is necessary when examining these data, as the series does not represent necessarily production in Wisconsin. From the data description:
The series DOES NOT represent the production origin of U.S. export merchandise. In some cases considerable manufactured exports are attributed to states that are known to have little manufacturing capacity. One reason is that commodities produced by out-of-state suppliers can be shipped from in-state distribution centers. Another factor is shipments of manufactured commodities from in-state warehouses and other distribution centers that are arranged by exporters located out-of-state. In both cases, manufactured exports from the non-industrial state are magnified in the OM series.
Employment in durable manufacturing has languished, partly as a consequence. By the eve of the pandemic, durable manufacturing employment was the same as that when Mr. Trump declared his intention to impose protectionist measures under Sections 232 and 301, despite a booming domestic economy.
Figure 2: Real “exports” of goods originating in Wisconsin, deflated by US PPI-all commodities in millions 1982$, n.s.a. (blue, left log scale), and Wisconsin durable goods manufacturing employment, 000’s, s.a. (red, right log scale). NBER defined recession dates peak-to-trough shaded gray; orange dashed line denotes March 2018 when Section 232 and Section 301 measures are announced. Source: Bureau of Census, BLS, via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations.
In the absence of a complete recovery to trend in exports, manufacturing employment is going to be hard pressed to grow substantially (although total manufacturing employment has exceeded pre-pandemic levels.)
Almost exactly 19 years since Colin Powell’s speech to the UN Security Council.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/oct/18/colin-powell-un-security-council-iraq
Seeing Blinken speak today at the UN made me think of it.
Which brings to mind the question why President Biden or Prime Minister Johnson have not brought the matter of Ukraine to the United Nations Security Council. The typical advice of Ms. Slaughter proved unfortunate enough then to warrant going a different direction now:
https://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/18/opinion/good-reasons-for-going-around-the-un.html
March 18, 2003
Good Reasons for Going Around the U.N.
By ANNE-MARIE SLAUGHTER
With the news that the United States was abandoning its efforts to get United Nations approval for a possible invasion of Iraq, yesterday looked to be a very bad day for staunch multilateralists and critics of American policy.
That view is understandable, but incomplete, even after President Bush’s speech last night made it clear that America would be going to war largely on its own. By giving up on the Security Council, the Bush administration has started on a course that could be called ”illegal but legitimate,” a course that could end up, paradoxically, winning United Nations approval for a military campaign in Iraq — though only after an invasion.
The relevant history here is from Kosovo….
You and JohnH should know that it is Russia that intends to invade Ukraine not the other way around. Yes the US invasion of Iraq was wrong. As would Putin invading Ukraine. But the two of you are spinning that Putin is the good guy while everyone else is doing something wrong. Yea I get you two are Putin’s payroll but your dishonesty here is so transparent it’s embarrassing.
I get you two are Putin’s payroll….
I get you two are Putin’s payroll….
I get you two are Putin’s payroll….
[ The turn to McCarthyism as a means of intimidation. Over and over and over, the turn to McCarthyism as an expression of the need to intimidate. ]
https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-on-russias-threat-to-peace-and-security-at-the-un-security-council/
February 17, 2022
Secretary Antony J. Blinken on Russia’s Threat to Peace and Security at the UN Security Council
It was a very honest speech unlike the lies from Putins pet poodle
I’m sure that the honorable Senator Ron Johnson will say that it’s better for Wisconsin to produce more things for in-state use.
“My graphs don’t really say anything, so won’t you please just listen to my political stories?”
You have not figured out that EVERYONE resents your highly insulting and incredibly stupid chirping by now? Seriously? Find another blog to troll.
Thank God we threw out the Orange Man!
Now, Joe Biden is doing a super.
How can we thank him?
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-02-18/Chinese-mainland-records-87-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-17Kh5wJk5sQ/index.html
February 18, 2022
Chinese mainland reports 87 new COVID-19 cases
The Chinese mainland recorded 87 confirmed COVID-19 cases on Thursday, with 40 linked to local transmissions and 47 from overseas, data from the National Health Commission showed on Friday.
A total of 45 new asymptomatic cases were also recorded, and 706 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.
Confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland now total 107,375 with the death toll remaining unchanged at 4,636 since January last year.
Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-02-18/Chinese-mainland-records-87-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-17Kh5wJk5sQ/img/9c1b3806ffb04f66879c24d3152f3773/9c1b3806ffb04f66879c24d3152f3773.jpeg
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-02-18/Chinese-mainland-records-87-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-17Kh5wJk5sQ/img/47f2a0c59d324e7498c35e4a74b0d87e/47f2a0c59d324e7498c35e4a74b0d87e.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-02-18/Chinese-mainland-records-87-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-17Kh5wJk5sQ/img/ef775c791139401e86f90dd8b4fb183f/ef775c791139401e86f90dd8b4fb183f.jpeg
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
February 17, 2022
Coronavirus
United States
Cases ( 79,915,734)
Deaths ( 955,497)
Deaths per million ( 2,859)
China
Cases ( 107,288)
Deaths ( 4,636)
Deaths per million ( 3)
I guess IHS “flash PMIs” will be coming out soon?? I think when the Fed is still talking about a 1/2 percent rate increase (which would be a huge mistake in my opinion) that should be worth paying attention to. I assume WSJ or someone will let that cat out of the bag, at least the headline number.
Off topic
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-health-economy-fiona-hill-1cb4fee8f64b41479468a07eb32ad304
“Putin has basically outfoxed and outsmarted an awful lot of people over the 22 years” he’s been in power by using his experience as a KGB operative and “Biden’s well aware of that,” Hill said.
Trump “thought he could charm Putin, but it’s Putin who manipulates people, not the other way around,” she said.
I think the Biden team has handled this well, outside of the one major error of not being stern on cutting off the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Hopefully Germany will “come to their senses” on this issue.