Another Economic Sitrep for China

From “GS Economic Indicators: China CAI Falls to -11% in April”:

CAI is the “Current Activity Indicator”, first principle component of key economic series, expressed in GDP growth units, as described here. See also yesterday’s post on the Chinese economic situation.

I think that this episode will be a(nother) high-profile demonstration of the fact that an autocratic leadership unconstrained by reason can lead to disaster — not only for China but also for China’s economic partners.

Source: Koh, Varley, Bloomberg, 11 April 2022.

23 thoughts on “Another Economic Sitrep for China

  1. ltr

    May 18, 2022

    Shanghai delivers world’s largest VLEC since COVID business resumption

    A Shanghai shipyard delivered the world’s largest Very Large Ethane Carrier (VLEC) on Monday. It is the first vessel delivered since Shanghai started stress tests for business and production resumption on April 23, as the mega-city of 25 million residents is gradually resuming offline businesses amid a waning COVID-19 wave.

    The vessel delivered by Jiangnan Shipyard Group is a VLEC with a maximum shipping capacity of 99,000 cubic meters, and it is the largest of its kind in the world. During the trial voyage conducted from March 8 to March 19, the production team had tested and debugged more than 10 key sets of equipment and systems on the ship, with strict anti-epidemic measures in place.

    Self-developed tech, ends foreign monopoly

    The Type-B cabin on this vessel was made with technology solely developed by Jiangnan Shipyard, breaking foreign technological monopolies. It is capable of carrying ethylene at -104 degrees Celsius and carrying ethane at -89 degrees Celsius.

    Lin Qingshan, deputy general-manager of Jiangnan Shipyard, told China Media Group (CMG) that “products like the one we delivered today – a VLEC – are made with technology independently developed by us. Thanks to efforts of market promotion, such products of ours have taken two thirds of the world’s VLEC market shares.”

    With innovation on high-end shipping technologies, the number of orders received by Jiangnan Shipyard has kept growing despite the pandemic. So far this year, the contractual value of orders for civilian vessels received by the shipyard has reached 23.6 billion yuan ($3.49 billion), up 76 percent year on year, among them the ones received during Shanghai’s lockdown period are valued at 10.7 billion yuan ($1.58 billion).

    Strict measures for curbing COVID-19

    Since Shanghai started stress tests for business and production resumption on April 23, more than 10,000 employees have returned to their positions in Jiangnan Shipyard, with an overall resumption rate of more than 50 percent.

    For epidemic prevention and control, the shipyard set independent ventilation systems requiring on-board staff who tested positive for the coronavirus or confirmed as cases of COVID-19 infections be under quarantine immediately to curb possible further spread of COVID-19.

    Zhang Jian, deputy general-manager of the Jiangnan Shipyard, also told CMG that “in the first stage, we have resumed the normal delivery process at the wharf, and we plan to reopen all shipyard production lines by the end of May. This year, we aim to deliver 16 civilian vessels, and maintain sustainable growth in vessel delivery.”

  2. ltr

    May 17, 2022

    China continues to record net inflow of cross-border capital in April

    BEIJING — China has continued to record a net inflow of cross-border capital, and has maintained the yuan’s generally stable exchange rate as Chinese banks reported a large net foreign exchange purchase last month, official data showed on Tuesday.

    Chinese lenders bought 229.7 billion U.S. dollars worth of foreign currencies and sold 210.6 billion dollars’ worth in April. That resulted in a net purchase of 19 billion dollars, said the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.

    China’s development pattern of a stable forex market and balanced cross-border capital flows has remained unchanged, said Wang Chunying, the administration’s deputy head.

    The tightening of monetary policies in major developed economies will have a spillover effect on the flows of international capital, but China’s forex market has become more mature and resilient to allow it to adapt better to changes in the external environment, Wang told Xinhua in an interview.

    The recent two-way adjustment in cross-border stock investments will neither affect the overall balance of cross-border capital flows nor impact the trend of overseas investors steadily increasing their holdings of yuan assets, she said….

  3. ltr

    May 18, 2022

    Chinese mainland records 240 new confirmed COVID-19 cases

    The Chinese mainland recorded 240 new confirmed COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, with 227 linked to local transmissions and 13 from overseas, data from the National Health Commission showed on Wednesday.

    A total of 1,065 new asymptomatic cases were also recorded on Tuesday, and 47,718 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.

    Confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland now number 222,370, with the total death toll from COVID-19 at 5,217.

    Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases

    Chinese mainland new imported cases

    Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

  4. Moses Herzog

    Bonus points to Koh for including Dalian, I might be angry because Chaoyang was cut off the map, but I guess it’s not a port city, so……..

    You know what I think is effecting these strange decisions by Xi and company??~~~For them it’s a binary decision (which for their view, has reason Their decision isn’t 2% GDP with decision X, 5% GDP with decision Y, negative 4% GDP with decision Z. Their decision is binary—keep hold on power for the CCP, lose control of power for the CCP.

    And contrary to what our vacant minded consultants in Cape Cod would have us believe, Xi is going nowhere. He is staying right where he is.

  5. Moses Herzog

    BTW, I like this nomenclature—sitrep—you should keep this as an ongoing blog series on the China shutdowns. Digging in their heals or “doubling down” is their specialty. I was there during SARS, proceeded to get a vehement promise directly (in person) from the University President they would put soap in the university bathrooms (there was NONE~~bar OR liquid soap dispenser)—still hadn’t done it a year after I left the school. Were harassing me to have my temperature checked on my forehead at the main entrance of the school and report my daily body temp to a douche colleague while they had THREE broken gaps in the surrounding fence students walked casually in and out of 24/7. Handed out cheap basketballs (university Pres kickbacks??) that supposedly raised immunity to serious pulmonary viruses, and gave sulphur soap (real “healthy” stuff) for students to carry around, that they NEVER actually used. You know, nothing DUMB or anything.

    So anyone want to ask me if I’m shocked China government autocrats have their head up their ____???

    1. Barkley Rosser


      I realize I am again exhibiting my incipient senility, but I am not sure what this new nomenclature means. It looks to me to be a shortening of “Situation Reprehensible,” but I guess could be something else. What do you think it means?

  6. JohnH

    “ another high-profile demonstration of the fact that an autocratic leadership unconstrained by reason can lead to disaster”

    Reality or wishful thinking? How is China’s COVID strategy not reasonable, particularly in light of China’s concern about US bio-weapons labs in Ukraine and Kazakhstan?

    1. pgl

      China’s concern about US bio-weapons labs in Ukraine and Kazakhstan? They are not concerned as they are not stupid enough to believe this pathetic Putin lie.

      Hey Johnny boy – you are quickly becoming another embarrassment to the Kremlin. Come up with some new lies to push before V. V. Putin decides to fire you.

    2. Barkley Rosser


      You actually still do not know what the nature of those bio labs in Ukraine and Kazakhstan are? They were weapons labs during the Soviet period, not any more. Claims they still are just pure Putin propaganda. I think the Chinese know better, even as they may be willing to repeat the propaganda. But then they have been spreading their own propaganda, most notably the claim that Covid was actually brought to Wuhan by US military. But in spite of spouting that claim publicly, I am pretty sure they actually know better on that as well.

      1. JohnH

        It doesn’t matter what I know or think…what matters is what the Chinese think…and there “excessive” lockdowns are consistent with a fear that they could be subject to a bio-weapons attack.

        Of course, people like pgl and Rosser, who believe, in the face of much contrary evidence, that the US is just a benevolent hegemon, dismiss Chinese concerns out of hand, the same benevolent hegemon that nuked Hiroshima and Nagasaki and dropped Napalm all over Vietnam.

        1. Barkley Rosser


          Oh, you really think that what CCP propagandists spout for the rest of the world to hear is what their leadership really thinks? I do not think they are that stupid. I think they know when they are lying.

          Yeah, US used nukes at the end of WW II 77 years ago, and has pulled some not admirable things since, such as the invasion of Iraq two decades ago. But it is very well known what is going on with respect to US funding of research in the former bioweapons labs in Ukraine and Kazakhstan. They have not been engaging in anything secret for many years. So, the claims by Russian propagandists that those labs are still doing weapons research is clearly blatant lies, and the Chinese certainly know this. But it is convenient for them to repeat Putin’s lies.

          The quesrtion is why you are so willing to go along with this bs as well. Your willingness to play Putin bot here has really been quite astrounding, not to mention outright immoral.

          1. JohnH

            The question is why Rosser unquestionly trusts the US government. We all know that Snowden revealed a lot of stuff that appalled many of…and then Brennan lied about it to Congress.

          2. Barkley Rosser


            Look, here is what you should do, boy. Google “bio weapons labs Ukraine Kazakhstan.” I just did. Out of the top 30 hits they all said that Russia is pushing a conspiracy theory about these claims. The sources include such entities as the United Nations and Science Magazine among many others from around the world. There is zero evidence that this is a case like that of Snowden where a bunch of foolish people are being taken in by the US government. it is you who are being taken in, or else being a conscious lying tool.

            Which is it, JohnH? Are you a paid troll or just a foolish idiot?

    3. AndrewG

      “US bio-weapons”

      Lol I’m sorry but you are incredibly gullible. That article you cited didn’t have a single shred of evidence of “US bio-weapons”.

      Lol seriously, are you Glenn Greenwald?

    4. AndrewG

      You could be an unironic Tucker Carlson guest! And then you could sell some scrotum tanning lights!

  7. David O'Rear

    The CCP CC Publicity Office (they don’t call it propaganda any more), like almost everything else in China, doesn’t really give a hoot about what foreigners hear or think. It is primarily for signalling cadres further down the food chain how to present certain issues.

    1. AndrewG

      “The CCP CC Publicity Office (they don’t call it propaganda any more), like almost everything else in China, doesn’t really give a hoot about what foreigners hear or think.”

      How then does one explain ltr’s obsessive posting here?

Comments are closed.