Has US m/m Inflation Accelerated Significantly Faster than Euro Area Inflation?

No, since 2020M03. No for headline, yes for core (at 8% level), since 2021M03.

Figure 1: US-Euro area m/m annualized headline differential (blue), core differential (red). CPI for US, HICP for Euro area. HICP seasonally adjusted using X-13, log transformation. Inflation calculated using log-differences. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, EuroStat, via FRED, and author’s calculations.

US core inflation accelerated 2.4 percentage points relative to Euro area, in the 2021M03-22M05 period. The relative acceleration is only 0.7 percentage points if one starts from the onset of the pandemic in the US, 2020M03.

This approach — using a differences in differences in inflation (see regression specification here) — is consistent with inflation rates or inflation differentials being I(0).

14 thoughts on “Has US m/m Inflation Accelerated Significantly Faster than Euro Area Inflation?

  1. pgl

    Can we stop calling the Dallas Cowboys “America’s Team”?

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/cowboys/2022/07/05/dallas-cowboys-gun-themed-coffee-company-black-rifle/7815632001/

    FRISCO, Texas – The Dallas Cowboys sparked criticism on social media Tuesday after announcing a marketing agreement with a gun-themed coffee company with blends that include “AK-47 Espresso,” “Silencer Smooth” and “Murdered Out.” The partnership with the Black Rifle Coffee Co. was revealed on Twitter the day after six people died in a shooting at a Fourth of July parade in suburban Chicago.

    Look – I love a good coffee but I ain’t buying AK-47 Espresso.

  2. pgl

    We may have a new Battle of Atlanta:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/fulton-county-subpoenas-giuliani-graham-in-probe-into-election-interference/ar-AAZemh3

    The Fulton County special grand jury investigating possible criminal interference in Georgia’s 2020 elections has issued subpoenas for Rudy Giuliani, Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and several others in former President Donald Trump’s orbit. Others who were issued subpoenas include John Eastman, Cleta Mitchell, Kenneth Chesbro and Jenna Ellis, all of whom advised Trump on ways to overturn President Joe Biden’s win in Georgia.

    We all get RUDY is as corrupt as it gets. But now this investigation involved “rule of law” Lindsey Graham. It would warm my heart if Senator Graham ends up in jail for years. Rule of law my rear end.

  3. pgl

    Good news – Robert Crimo confessed.

    Scary detail – he was thinking about another mass shooting in Madison, Wisconsin.

  4. pgl

    BLS released the May JOLTS data:

    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

    The number of job openings decreased to 11.3 million on the last business day of May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires and total separations were little changed at 6.5 million and 6.0 million, respectively.

    New hires exceeded separations by 0.5 million. Does this sound like Princeton Steve’s confident prediction that we are already in a recession? Oh yea – his expert staff at Fox and Friends have told him to ignore this data.

  5. CoRev

    Barking Bierka – the NYC Jerk, remind us again what the GDP did in Q1 2022 and what was the JOLT data for that same quarter.

    Since the administration has touted these jobs numbers, would you please name and describe the specific Biden policy responsible for them.

    1. Barkley Rosser

      CoRev,

      They were partly stimulated by last year’s fiscal stimulus that is now over that most GOPs are blaming inflation on.

      1. pgl

        Competence in dealing with the virus helped get labor force participation back up from the disaster that Trump left us,

      2. Anonymous

        anxiously waiting for advance q2 gdp print, 3 more weeks

        first time i hear that negative q1 gdp was expiration of stimi checks.

        i thought it was low inventory and high imports!

        how much federal ‘covid’ aid, the real money to state and local and big business, is in the obligated not expended leger?

    2. pgl

      “what the GDP did in Q1 2022 and what was the JOLT data for that same quarter”

      Gee CoRev – you actually think May is in the first quarter? What’s the matter – did you preK teacher take away your little calendar?

      1. CoRev

        Barking Bierka – the NYC Jerk barks again. Why did you NOT do the comparison? Did your preK teacher take away your little calendar? Your grade school teachers obviously failed in teaching you how to read and comprehend.

  6. Not Trampis

    Hey Barkes,

    given the USA has had much stronger GDP than either Europe or the UK wouldn’t this mean inflation is a supply problem?

    1. Barkley Rosser

      NT,

      I think I have cited here a San Fran Fed Bank study that says it is more supply than demand side problem. So, yeah, mostly, mate, although not entirely.

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