17 thoughts on “The Fiscal and FX Crises of the Russian State (in War)

  1. pgl

    I love this title “Optimistic Forecasts Have It All Wrong with Cherry-Picked Statistics: Drinking From The Fountain of Russian Propaganda”.

    Sort of describes the standard comment from the Putin pet poodles such as JohnH.

    The price received by Russia for its oil is a bargain for whoever is buying.

  2. Moses Herzog

    Thought some of Professor Chinn’s and Professor Hamilton’s readers, including the ones residing in Harrisonburg Virginia, who did their very best to spread the Wuhan Lab tripe might be interested in the latest from Science journal:


    There wasn’t that much doubt the Wuhan Lab rumor was garbage from the beginning. That didn’t stop people desperate for any form of attention (negative or otherwise) from quoting CIA lapdogs with opinion columns at WaPo like they were experts in immunology or microbiology. Oh well, it’s all worth it to look like the village idiot if you can wait a few months for the 0.5% chance you can say “Well, I was the ‘only one’ on this blog, or really the entire planet Earth that said ‘Bawdaw bawdaw bawdaw’ ” then raise your chin up 4 inches, snort through your nose, and hike your grandpa khakis up mid-chest.

    1. Barkley Rosser


      Eff you,. Several months ago when the earlier studies came out that made it look highly likely that origin was zoonotic, I accepted that. The earlier problem was that a bunch of fools pushing a propaganda line wanted to say that for sure it was zoonotic. That was not the case. Even now, this latest study makes it clear that while the evidence is even stronger that the origin was zoonotic, it remains the case that it cannot be proven it was not from the lab.

      But I have not pushed advocating that for a long time, and even back then I never said it was from the lab. I noted it might be. You just like to lie and misrepresent what I say over and over, and frankly, I am getting sick of it. You are truly just a worthless scumbag, Moses, just total lying scum.

      1. Barkley Rosser

        This may be a good time to try once again something I have tried previously that has not worked out rather than writing another “War and Peace” response to go on and on in detail about the problems with this comment by Moses. It is time to propose yet again a cease fire nonaggression pact. This may be appropriate because I realize I have in the last week or two made snarky remarks about him out of the blue without provocation.

        So, Moses, my proposal is this. We stick to debating on-topic issues on any given thread. We stay away from coming out of the blue to make some nasty comment about something that involves past remarks by either of us. I shall make an effort to avoid doing this. If you also do it, I am sure most people here would applaud the reduction of overdone wrangling and sniping by the two of us that I think is largely not of much interest to most of them.

        BTW, I am still recovering from Covid-19, which partly explains my especial annoyance and frustration that appeared in my comment immediately preceding this one, although, as noted, I could go on at some length about specific details regarding how unreasonably what you posted here is. My only further comment on that issue is to repeat something I have said every time this topic came up and which is verified by this new article in Science, which is that we shall never know for sure what the origin of the pandemic was for sure, even though it increasingly looks to have been zoonotic.

  3. pgl

    OK I just endured the latest from Luskin. First of all he wants us to believe that Milton Friedman always believed in the Quantity Theory of Money which is not even remotely true. Secondly he claims Volcker was a died in the wool monetarist which is also total BS. But here is the core of his “argument”:

    Yet the relationship between money-supply growth, as measured by M2 (currency in circulation plus liquid bank and money-market fund balances) and subsequent inflation has been statistically near-perfect in the pandemic era, with a 13-month lag. Year-over-year M2 growth began to accelerate during the pandemic recession in April 2020, and core inflation started to accelerate 13 months later, in May 2021. M2 growth peaked at a history-making, off-the-charts 27% in February 2021, and core CPI peaked 13 months later, in March 2022. Both M2 growth and core CPI have been falling every month since their respective peaks. Experience is proving, 40 years after Friedman taught Volcker, that inflation is still a monetary phenomenon. But that tells us only what caused the present inflation, not what caused the money supply to grow so rapidly.

    “statistically near-perfect in the pandemic era” Seriously? If the Quantity Theory of Money works in the braindead way Princeton Steve asserts and Luskin alludes to then we should have had 25% inflation rates in early 2022. But we did not even come close.

    Now I hope inflation subsides but I am not buying into anyone’s argument if it rests on the Quantity Theory of Money.

  4. pgl


    Since Luskin the Lunatic did not present the ratio of GDP/M2, I did. Was it some constant during the Volcker years as his WSJ oped would suggest? Not quite. Has it been a constant lately? BAHAHAHAHA!

    Yes Luskin still owns the crown as the Stupidest Man Alive! Our Usual Suspects may be close to his level of stupidity but ….

  5. pgl

    Some good news from DC:


    A bill designed to encourage more semiconductor companies to build chip plants in the United States passed the Senate on Wednesday as lawmakers raced to finish work on a key priority of the Biden administration. The $280 billion measure, which awaits a House vote, includes federal grants and tax breaks for companies that construct their chip facilities in the U.S. The legislation also directs Congress to significantly increase spending on high-tech research programs that lawmakers say will help the country stay economically competitive in the decades ahead. Senate passage came by a 64-33 vote. The House vote is expected later this week as lawmakers try to wrap up business before returning to their home states and districts in August. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has said she is confident there is enough support in the House to pass the bill before the upcoming recess.

  6. Moses Herzog

    Open Question: If America tops the list of highest Monkeypox case count for a single nation, will BlueStateKopits insist we rename Monkeypox “USA WhiteMonkey Virus”??

    Will Barkley Junior insist for months (over a year) that the MonkeyPox originated from a USA based biosafety level 4 laboratory?? Galveston Texas has a BLS-4 lab and now there are 223+ cases of Monkeypox in Texas. Will Barkley Rosser tell us there’s “no way” that is coincidence?? Barkley might tell us “Galveston is in Texas, right??” Tune in to this same thread next week, when Barkley Rosser and BlueState Kopits make their Powerpoint Presentation “Dumb and Dumber Play Immunology and Microbiology Crackerjacks”

    1. pgl

      Since it has hit especially the home of the best bagels ever, Princeton Steve will likely start complaining about how it is not safe for him to safely buy one of his precious bagels at a decent price. After all the entire world revolves around him.

      1. Menzie Chinn Post author

        Everyone: The blog host would very much appreciate it if the comments pertained to the post. In this case, it’s Russia, the war, budget balance, fx reserves. Seems like enough to talk about as is.

    2. pgl

      We may need a different name for this virus:


      Dr. Ashwin Vasan, New York City’s public health commissioner, called on the World Health Organization (WHO) Tuesday to rename the monkeypox virus over the “potentially devastating and stigmatizing effects” it can have on vulnerable communities.

      “NYC joins many public health experts and community leaders who have expressed their serious concern about continuing to exclusively use the term ‘monkeypox’ given the stigma it may engender, and the painful and racist history within which terminology like this is rooted for communities of color,” Vasan wrote in a letter addressed to Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO’s director-general.

      Monkeypox received its classification due to an infection seen in research primates, but early misinformation about the virus led people to believe it was spread to humans after people in Africa engaged in sexual activity with monkeys, Vasan explained.

      Such false messaging has created “incalculable harm and stigma for decades to come,” and continuing to use the term monkeypox “may reignite traumatic feelings of racism and stigma,” especially among Black people, people of color and members of the LGBTQIA+ community, the commissioner said in his letter.

      These communities may avoid engaging in vital health care services as a result, according to Vasan.

      The public health chief also fears that the consequences caused by monkeypox-related stigma may escalate as, given in many contexts, transmission of the virus is concentrated among men who have sex with other men, a population he said is facing ongoing stigma, marginalization, violence and criminalization.

      Singapore Extends Visa For Sri Lanka’s Ex-leader: Local Media
      Citing a seven-fold increase of anti-Asian hate crimes being reported to the New York City Commission on Human Rights since the beginning of February 2020, Vasan noted that “the language we use in public health matters, and it has tangible effects on the safety of community most at risk for poor health outcomes.”

      “Words can save lives or put them at further risk; thus, the world cannot repeat these mistakes in nomenclature again,” the doctor said.

      “The WHO must act in this moment before it’s too late,” he warned.

  7. pgl

    Kevin Drum notes this report too:


    the authors say that consumer spending is down about 20%; auto sales have collapsed; industrial production has been cut back across the board thanks to sanctions that prevent the import of crucial components; inflation is running at nearly 20%; and Russian oil is selling at a huge discount.

    Now if consumer spending in the US dropped by even 2% our Usual Suspects would declare that this is getting very ugly and Biden is a socialist. But as bad as the Russian economy has been actually hit the same crew sanctions are worthless and Putin is such a better leader than Biden.

    1. Willie

      I have pretty good friends who had extremely poor timing and moved to Moscow for work in early February. They are Russian, and I think she may have been a bit homesick for some reason. Be that as it may. I last heard from them several months ago and there were already shortages of all kinds of things in Moscow. It’s been radio silence ever since, so I don’t know what’s happening to them now. They are middle class people with decently paying work that’s in demand, so they are the kinds of people who will be sheltered from the fallout more than most in Russia. Even so, it didn’t sound like things were good then. Now, it’s probably worse.

    2. James Edwards

      The difference is that Putin hung on to power for too long (in part due to the Magnitsky Act). At some point the pressure on him will continue to grow.

  8. James Edwards

    This is one of the best information about the Russian economy since the invasion. I just read an article on CNN about Russia’s attempt to steal gold from Sudan (with its military’s blessing after Russia supported its coup) in order to use it to prop its economy.

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