The Geographic Distribution of Economic Activity, through June 2022

From the Philadelpha Fed, coincident index 3 month growth rates, through June 2022:

Source: Philadelphia Fed, July 27, 2022.

Negative growth is recorded only for Alaska and Montana. Using the Baumeister et al. Weekly Economic Conditions Indicator, growth is only hit negative (through June 25) for Alaska and Utah.

The Philadelphia Fed’s coincident index has been diverging from both the official BEA measure and the IHS Markit measure of GDP:

Figure 1: Monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), coincident index (teal), Official GDP in Ch.2012$ (blue bar), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source:  IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (7/1/2022 release), Philadelphia Fed, BEA, and author’s calculations.

In some respects, this is not too surprising. The Philly Fed indices are based on four indicators: nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average),” and these reflect mainly the labor market, which as we know from the establishment survey was still strengthening through June.

For comparison’s sake, here is the map for 2007M12, the NBER peak before the Great Recession:

Source: Philadelphia Fed.

At least 13 states, including Michigan, were recording a decline at the onset of the Great Recession (but 9 months before Lehman).

5 thoughts on “The Geographic Distribution of Economic Activity, through June 2022

  1. Macroduck

    Off topic –

    JohnH (AKA China Johnny),

    You seem convinced that economists are not interested in the distribution of income or inflation’s effect on workers, that the Biden administration doesn’t care about corporate profiteering and so forth. I thought I should alert you to another equally credible concern – the CERN particle collider has restarted and is being used to allow demons into our world:

    https://m.facebook.com/100073095555436/videos/365782355677967

    USAToday has “fact checked” the claim that CERN is a gateway for demons and found it to be false, but I’m sure you understand that’s because the press is controlled by the pro-demon corporate oligarchy.

    Reply
    1. pgl

      OK Johnny boy relies on sources that suck but think about this

      You seem convinced that economists are not interested in the distribution of income or inflation’s effect on workers, that the Biden administration doesn’t care about corporate profiteering and so forth.

      He does make such claims but anyone who has ever read anything knows that a lot of economists often discuss the distribution of income and how inflation affect real compensation,

      I think you and I agree as almost anyone else – Johnny boy blows a lot of BS.

      Reply
  2. AndrewG

    “…the labor market, which as we know from the establishment survey was still strengthening through June.”

    Boy, if you told me in the year 2013 that in the year 2022 I’d be a big inflation hawk, I’d laugh at you. Joke’s on former me!

    Reply

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