UNCTAD’s World Investment Report 2022 came out recently. Figure 1 depicts the recovery of FDI inflows.
Monthly Archives: August 2022
Term Spreads, Financial Conditions, Oil and Probit-based Recession Probabilities
With July in, it’s interesting to note that elevated probabilities of recession in 12 months come not from spreads, nor financial conditions, but oil prices.
A Peak in 2021 Q4? Business Cycle Indicators at the Beginning of August
If one took GDP as the determinant of NBER determined business cycles, this is what the picture would look like (normalizing on mid-Q4):
Nowcasts, August 1
From Atlanta Fed and IHS Markit: