Some people think we’re in a recession now, some think it’s in the past (we’re currently in H2 2022). In fact some economists surveyed by NABE believe we’re in a recession now (as shown in the chart below). Here’re some reminders of our best estimates of the current macro situation we’re in.
First the survey results:
Source: NABE, 22 August 2022 survey release.
The first bar does not exactly conform to a 2022H1 recession as we’re already past one half of Q3, but perhaps close enough…
The Survey of Professional Forecasters August release showed an increase in share of respondents predicting a negative 2022Q3 GDP growth print (recalling GDP is not the key indicator for determining whether we’re in a recession, according to the NBER BCDC).
What is our best guess of the current situation, given official GDP from the BEA, monthly GDP from IHS Markit (formerly Macroeconomic Advisers) and key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee? This is shown in Figure 1 below.
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 8/23 (blue +), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), official GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Lilac shading denotes a hypothetical 2022H1 recession. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (8/1/2022 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.
Note that the -0.9% q/q SAAR advance release figure for Q2 is likely to be revised. The current IHS Markit tracking number is -0.3%. In other words, beware the revisions – particularly for GDP.
Here’re what weekly indicators imply for the level of GDP over this period, compared against monthly GDP.
Figure 2: GDP in billions Ch.2012$ SAAR, from IHS Markit (blue), implied by Lewis-Mertens-Stock WEI (tan), implied by Baumeister et al. WECI (green), implied by OECD Weekly Tracker (red), based on lagged 3 month moving average of IHS Markit GDP. Lilac shading denotes hypothetical 2022H1 recession. Source: IHS Markit 8/1/2022 release, NY Fed via FRED, Baumeister et al., OECD, and author’s calculations.
Recession survey: 8% said don’t know/no opinion
Which sounds like the right answer.
Why do economists forecast? To make the weatherman look good!
To be fair, I still think there’s plenty of reason to think a recession might be coming, due to historical lags in job market indicators and an extremely aggressive Fed. But there’s even more uncertainty than usual, and I’m not sure in what direction it’s biased. And the overall health, flexibility and resiliency of the US economy is a thing to behold (true since about 2014). I’m entirely open to a soft landing, or a very mild recession. Then again–I’m not a macroeconomist!
this may very truly be the case where the fed chooses. either raise rates aggressiavely and get a recession. or do not raise rates and deal with higher inflation. if we do have a recession in the next year, it will be a choice. not inevitable.
Or do nothing and inflation collapses. Do you understand what bogus inflation is?????
@GREGORY BOTT ALL CAPS OR NO ONE’S LISTENING WHY WON’T ANYBODY LISTEN???
Your thesis is entirely a very dumb conspiracy theory that can be debunked by the most superficial familiarity with the data.
God is good
@ AndrewG
That was Barkley Rosser’s 2nd choice answer given around mid-February on if Russia would invade Ukraine. Unfortunately Rosser Junior’s first answer (“final response” in TV game show lingo) was “there will be no Russian invasion of Ukraine”. “Inside sources” (family in-laws watching state TV in the living room) got the “Russian expert” all confused….. and stuff…..
Moses,
At least I was reporting what was being widely accepted in Russia. WaPo has just had two very long articles on the invasion that confirm that most European leaders as well as Zelensky and the Ukrainian leadership did not believe there would be a full scale invasion.
Of course you keep repeating this, but how about all the whoppers you pulled? Oh, Russian troops in southeastern Romania about to invade. Ekno Moskvy was not an independent radio station because it was partly owned by Gazprom. You got Kharkiv and Kherson confused. There has been quite a bit more.
Gag, you are just so desperate. You really need to prove that you are a Real Man, given that we know you constantly attack numerous women because your father’s family hated your mother. And now you have neither a woman or a career.
@ Barkley Junior
False personal attacks won’t erase your record here. You’re as accurate on my personal background as you are with your “Russian insider” rumors. Did they also think the head of Russia’s Central Bank was leaving?? I notice she’s still there after you told us (a week ago??) she had already been fired. Remember you are the one here claiming to be the “expert on Russia”. Keep us posted. But please try to bat over .150, this isn’t baseball. Batting under .150 won’t keep you on the team, especially since you can’t even field rumors out of right field.
Also show us just one of the two WaPo links on “most European leaders….. “, I notice you have a strange habit of making things up as you go along, so I would like to see one of the two WaPo stories you quote. I suspect it’s one of your 1/10 truth 9/10ths cover my A$$ cafe diner specials. At least gift us some cherry pie with a large coffee if you want to feed us bullcr** all day. Or did it “disappear” like your “all over the internet” Elvira Nabiullina baloney. Laughable.
So you’re writing a comment addressed to me, but the gist is a dig at Barkley Rosser?
What is the point? This should be a “why am I even doing this?” moment for you.
I know, you’re still butt-hurt I told you you were wrong on a couple things. Why am I here?? Many reasons, but if I annoy people like you that’s just a bonus. You’re the same as Barkley, when you are told you got something wrong you lurk and then come back around with a baseball bat for the shin. We’re not in 4th grade, this isn’t recess, and you can’t bully me.
The “gist” of my comment is that people like Barkley and yourself would often times be better off saying “I don’t know”. I got this Virginia SOB getting on me for getting Quarterly GDP off by 1% (and actually narrowing if I was counting revised, I’m not, cuz I don’t move goalposts) when he got a quarterly GDP wrong by >33% inside the last 2 years. Do you know how much ungodly nerve and gall that takes?? >33% wrong on a quarterly GDP call. I dare anyone to name me a worse one in the annals of Quarterly GDP predictions— from anyone with a Masters in economics or above. But he wants to spoon me up crow I was overly positive 1%. Good one. Sign up for his class, PLEASE. I know the man likes mouth-breathers who flatter him all day long, hence his love of Kopits.
“The “gist” of my comment is that people like Barkley and yourself would often times be better off saying “I don’t know”.”
The gist of my comment is you resort to ad hominem over and over again, pointlessly, whether or not you agree with these people. It’s childish. And your fixation on Barkley Rosser (among others) is bizarre.
I don’t know what you mean by “people like you” or why annoying them is important to you, but my incentives are now: don’t bother talking to Moses Herzog. If you brought more than ad hominem (and seriously, you usually don’t), I’d reconsider.
Uh oh, Andrew, boy are you in trouble now. I mean, what did you think you were doing getting a baseball bat and using it on poor innocent Moses’s knees like that for? You should be ashamed of yourself! I know that I am ashamed for you myself, along with having to deal with all my own shame, goshawhoopee! I mean everybody knows hat I have mischaracterized Moses’s attitudes towards women, which are kinder and gentler and more enlightened than anybody else’s on this entire planet.
Moses,
What a worthless liar you are. I said the report on Naibiullina was a rumor. Of course you constantly play this game of deciding that I have definitely forecasted something i identify as a rumor, and then when I point out I said it was a rumor, you get on my case for saying it is a rumor. But here you are back again to pretending I did not say it was a rumor and definitely forecasted it. Why did you even drag me up here at all when I said nothing?
It was front page story in yesterday’s WaPo that said that most European leaders and the Ukrainian leaders did not expect a full scale invasion. The only new part of that is the “most European leaders.” It has long been known that the Ukrainian leadership did not expect a full blowin invasion, something i have noted here previously many times, since you have made this point so many times. The question is why do you keep bringing up one incorrect forecast I made briefly at one point? You just do it over and over and over again when it has nothing to do with anything that anybody is saying here.
As for me being wrong about you, so why is it you do not even tell us what your profession is, forget about your lack of a love life? You somehow suggest that if you do, somebody is going to find out your very important secret identity and put dog poop on your doorstep or maybe report to your boss what a total lying jerk you behave like on this blog. This is totally ridiculous. It has been pointed out that there are plenty of people here who have indicated their general area of current employment without remotely giving away enough information for anybody to track down their precise place of employment, much less their identity, again, an example is your presumed friend, Macroduck, who has informed us he works in finance, but otherwise nothing. Maybe you have figured out pgl’s identity from what he has said here, but are you able to track down Macroduck’s workplace or identity from that little bit he has told us.?
As for me speculating on your personal history, I am aware that you went gonzo on going after me after I criticized you for going after Elizabeth Warren in your hateful way, repeating a bunch of lying Donald Trump propaganda against her, repeatedly calling her “Pocahontas,” and so on. I am the person here who has called you out on your insane attacks on numerous women, and this obviously just sends you off the deep end, so you have to constantly and obsessively attack me, often as is the case here, out of the blue when I have said nothing on a thread. You just pop up with some exaggeration or even outright lie. I mean, you recently somehow denounced me for supposedly making incorrect statements that you supposedly corrected me on about tourism in China, when I am reasonably sure I had previously said nothing on the topic. You just make up lies out of thin air. Do you have an explanation for this utterly unacceptable and sick behavior on your part, “Moses Herzog”? Why do you repeatedly outright lie about me? You are just sick sick sick.
The RECESSION cheerleader in this case is pointing to the housing market. After all he claims 30-year mortgage rates are currently above 5.7%. But wait – they have declined to just over 5.1!
He suggests new home construction is in recession levels. His own graph days it is at 2016 levels. Do you remember the 2016 recession? Or is his alleged 1947 recession? No one else does.
Now BEA is telling us real residential investment (2012$) was $675 billion per annum in Q2. That is not recession territory.
Let’s face it – Princeton Steve LIES a lot.
pgl said. mortgage rates “have declined to just over 5.!” Such a liar:
“Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Mortgage rates increased for all loan types last week, with the benchmark 30-year fixed rate jumping 20 basis points to 5.65 percent – the highest in nearly a month. ” If anyone knows mortgage rates, it’s the mortgage bankers, not pgl.
https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/08/24/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey
I lied? Excuse me but READ your own damn link for a change.
“The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $647,200) increased to 5.28 percent from 5.14 percent”
When I cited FRED (which I presume think lies to)., the interest rate WAS 5.14%. Like I said old worthless piece of garbage. OK, it rose since then to 5.28%, which is not Stevie’s 5.7%.
OK I need to apologize to Steve – he is not the most pathetic liar here. No – that would be JohnH.
Wait – I take back my apology to Steve as he too is peddling this claim that interest rates have been rising not falling.
FRED is going to report an update to its measure tomorrow and maybe it does rise to 5.28%. But that is far below the 5.7% rate Stevie reported just yesterday.
It is interesting that Putin’s pet poodle JohnH has joined forces with Orban apologist Princeton Steve in lying about interest rates. OK lying about interest rates is not as bad as war crimes and blatant racism.
I guess JohnH is not only so stupid he cannot read his own article but he cannot bother to read the source I used the other day:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US/
30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States
Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States [MORTGAGE30US], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Now is how dumbest more dishonest troll accusing Freddie Mac of lying? Seriously – this troll is a total waste of time.
Why do you think more logging is good?
If your buildings make me sick and you can make toilet paper, furniture, fences, flooring, other paper products out of bamboo and hemp, and unlogged forests are great medicine, is it painfully ironic that the forests I find refuge in are being logged to build the structures and fund the schools that made me so sick and depressed that I seek out unlogged forests?
Is that too hard for the little neoliberal mind to grasp?
“Neoliberals for logging”? WTF are you smoking? (I kind of want some.)
Also, please read:
James, H. (2021). The War of Words: A Glossary of Globalization. Yale University Press.
Specifically, the chapter on “neoliberalism.”
Logging can be a grand thing if the logs run over your computer and stop your senseless trolling!
https://www.reuters.com/legal/agency-identified-700-plus-pages-classified-records-trumps-home-2022-08-23/
he U.S. National Archives discovered more than 700 pages of classified documents at Donald Trump’s Florida home in addition to material seized this month by FBI agents, according to a newly disclosed May letter the records agency sent to the Republican former president’s attorney. The large quantity of classified material in 15 boxes recovered in January by the National Archives and Records Administration, some marked as “top secret,” provides more insight into what led to the FBI’s court-authorized Aug. 8 search of Trump’s residence at the Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach.
700 pages is a lot but maybe there is benign explanation. We know Trump is incredibly fat and he eats a lot of junk food. Given we had a toilet paper shortage back in 2020, maybe these pages were stored near his bathroom.
Back in June this interest rate was just over 3.4%. It is now just over 3.2%.
Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS30
I was wondering about this in light of Princeton Steve’s FALSE claim that 30 year mortgage rates are currently over 5.7%. They were in June but are now down to around 5.1%.
I give Macroduck a lot of credit for thinking in terms of credit spreads. The credit spread back in June was around 2.3%. It is now only 1.9%.
Now most people would see the decline in mortgage rates as somewhat good news for the housing market. BUT NOT RECESSION CHEERLEADER PRINCETON STEVE. Yea – he has to delude himself into hoping that this market is cratering.
Mortgage rates are rising.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/24/mortgage-demand-from-first-time-buyers-makes-a-comeback.html
You said the other day they were over 5.7%. Of course FRED and Freddie Mac reported they had declined to 5.13%. Yea – they may have risen a bit since then but they are still lower than 5.7%.
BTW – your constant LYING is going to be called. Get used to it.
5.72% CR, Aug. 22
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/08/tuesday-new-home-sales-richmond-fed-mfg.html
Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily!
The same thing JohnH used. I guess you two lovers are working together. Of course if you knew how to READ, you would have seen my reply to your fellow lying troll.
Maybe you do not know but there are several mortgage rate quotes for people with different credit ratings. I am citing what Freddie Mac reports. Now if you want to call them liars, I have to remind you that you used to quote them.
Then again you flip flop on things like this even more than your lying BFF JohnH does.
“At the end of July, the prevailing concern in the mortgage industry was that rates were falling at an unhealthy pace.”
Your source’s very first sentence. But you claimed interest rates have been rising. I guess you do not know how to read or tell the truth.
Then they will destroy fall.
So when the housing market shows *increasing* demand, it’s just a data point, right Steve? All other signs point to HARD RESET, right?
The housing market is crashing, Andrew. What makes you think there’s increasing demand? For goodness sake, go over to CR and scroll down the article list. McBride has article after article on the state of play. And if you want more, watch Nick at Reventure Consulting on YouTube. Nick does it all market by market.
“First-time buyers show more demand for mortgages, even as interest rates rise”
That’s the headline from the article you linked to. Not my fault you didn’t read it.
And while you’re at CR, why don’t you tell us all why fewer homeowners are willing to sell despite elevated prices and the real prospect of price declines in the near future? McBride’s quotation calls it a Seller’s Strike.
The housing market is coming down — from unheard-of levels, and precisely as expected when the Fed is so aggressive. That doesn’t mean we’re in a recession (just look at the job market) and it doesn’t even mean we’re in a housing crash. Skimming McBride’s headlines and then regurgitating your priors isn’t analysis. It’s lazy.
You noticed this too. Steve seems to lie even more than Trump.
I’m not the only one questioning the competency of Trump’s lawyers:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/former-prosecutors-mock-trumps-attorneys-and-say-they-may-need-to-hire-their-own-lawyers-amid-continued-mar-a-lago-fallout/ar-AA110jXD
Legal experts panned Trump’s lawyers as they continue grappling with fallout from the Mar-a-Lago raid.
One former prosecutor said they’re “either completely incompetent or out of their depth.”
Experts also mocked the Trump team’s latest lawsuit as a “crazy document” and a PR stunt.
Legal experts and former prosecutors are widely panning former President Donald Trump’s team of lawyers as they continue grappling with the fallout from the FBI’s unprecedented Mar-a-Lago raid.
“They appear to be either completely incompetent, or out of their depth,” Renato Mariotti, a longtime former federal prosecutor, told Insider. “That’s part of the reason why the former president has trouble finding lawyers: because he demands that they file documents and take positions that have no legal support whatsoever.”
I have seen a claim that Trump does not care, and that these incompetent and ridiculous lawsuits are for raising more money from his outraged base, much of which seems to still be very upset at how mean all these people are being to him, I mean, the legitmate president. When somebody as at least semi-intelligent as Rick Stryker has been spouting this totally obvous garbage, it obviously is an easy sell for the stupider and more deeply sunk in of the Magarturds, although I notice that Rick seems to have gone quiet on this in the last couple of days. Maybe all the continuing stuff coming out from court documents and other public sources he cannot attribute to “FBi leaks” might have made it clear to him that this is not just a bunch of baloney. Trump has been massively breaking the law on all this since the moment he left office, and it has now really caught up to him.
Agree re: “these incompetent and ridiculous lawsuits are for raising more money”
That’s only possible if Trump is much dumber than I ever knew. I get that with the election lawsuits (they went 1 for 60+, and the one win was some tiny technical thing of zero consequence). But his own criminal defense? I kind of doubt Trump is actually that dumb. He’s just dumb enough to hire really bad lawyers. (Remember when his big selling point was that he picked really good advisers? Lol …)
I’m no lawyer and I have no clue if indictments are actually coming for this, but this looks 10x worse than Clinton’s email server.
AG,
Oh yes, it is much worse than Clinton’s server. Funny thing about her server, aside from her losing the 2016 election over it, is the widely forgotten (If ever known) fact that her three predecessors did the same thing she did, with some of them, especially Colin Powell, doing it in even more illegal ways than she did. But, of course, not a whisper about any of them getting in any trouble for it.
I think that what we are seeing with Trump is something that he has done his whole career. He has been constantly running from one legal problem after another, and simply figures that he fizesone one way, usually with some payment, and then moves on to the next one, with none of them ever really catching up to him seriously, at least not jail time seriously. He always manages to get out by paying someboy off and getting somebody else to cough up more money to help him keep going to the next one. I means, how many bankruptcies?
But this is more serious, and he does not know how to behave any other way. So he keeps on raising money and running, and his hard core Magaturds keep believing. But it may be is really finally facing a reckoning he cannot so easily get past, even as he keeps raising money all the way.
OMG don’t get me started on how Powell not only did what Clinton did, he advised her to set up a private email server, then lied about it, then his lie was exposed by Wikileaks.
One interesting thing I have noticed on casual perusal of comments in places like YouTube: I see few but not a trivial number saying things like “Trump was hounded for nothing during his presidency, but if he’s guilty of this, throw the book at him.” Shows a willingness to believe this may really be it, at least among his softer supporters.
Off topic –
NOAA has release it’s annual report on “sunny day” flooding. This is flooding which occurs simply because of high tide – no precipitation or storm surge involved:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/HighTideFlooding_AnnualOutlook.html
The upshot is that rising oceans put increasing areas of human habitation and production underwater simpply as a matter of course. The cost of doing business, of maintaining facilities which were once safe from normal tidal activity, is rising. Human activity will retreat from areas of tidal flooding, but tidal flooding will become more frequent and cover more previously developed coastal area over time.
The prospect of increased frequency and coverage of tidal flooding is baked in the cake for probably 30 years. Seas will continue to rise for at least that long, based on greenhouse gasses already released and aerosol particle concentrations. Stop burning hydrocarbons and the reduction in aerosols (which reflect sunlight) will offset benefits from reduced CO2 emissions for roughly the first three decades. Then, benefits begin.
As sometimes note in the literature on dealing in climate change, 30 years is the length of many mortgages and is a reasonable useful life for non-residential construction. Simply pulling back a bit from recent flood zones and rebuilding is a bad idea. Lots of it going on though.
Of course, CoRev I’ll declare that this is simply wrong. That I have once again been super by the best available science. Watch. See if he doesn’t.
…duped by the best available science
It is not just CoRev. Check out rsm and his little wilderness life promoting more logs. Or whatever this cave man is babbling about!
MD goes on the offensive by trying to predict a response. You are absolutely correct, there is flooding caused by King/extraordinary high tides. I don’t know where you live, but where I live this is a well known occurrence. BUT, did you notice this picture in the article? https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/high-tide-annual-outlook-map/assets/images/htf_cover_photo.jpg It was captioned “Potomac River Flooding on King Street in Alexandria, Virginia. (NOAA)
Location: Alexandria, Virginia, 2015.
The 2015 Alexandria, VA flood is well known, and not caused by a King tide, but was caused by: “Alexandria, Arlington and the District were inundated along the river banks Tuesday as high tide coincided with significant Potomac River flooding
.
A tremendous amount of water is draining into the Potomac after weeks of torrential rainfall. For some locations in Maryland, the past 30 days have been the wettest on record, including Baltimore, Beltsville and Damascus.
With water raging downstream and the Chesapeake Bay pushing upstream, Tuesday’s afternoon high tide was as much as five feet above normal. High tide occurred around 1:15 p.m. in the Washington region.”
So, NOAA, claims King/high tides cause flooding, and they are accurate. But to get a rise of five feet above normal takes more than tides. In the case of the Alexandria, VA flooding shown it took a month long rainy period, coupled with a high tide, and I can almost assure that the wind direction was from a direction driving ocean waters up the Chesapeake Bay. Do you know what happens to the Potomac River or any river water when the wind blows the water down river to the ocean?
BTW, do you know how much water level has risen on the East Coast in the past century? How large is that fractional rise compared to the five feet above normal rise?
Reminds a lot of the mega flood claim. Unsupported exaggerations.
“VA flooding shown it took a month long rainy period,”
this is a problem in your response, covid. if that is occurring more frequently due to climate change, then we have a problem. in addition to high king tides. but we know more frequent high king tides are a result of climate change. it has been an ongoing problem for years in miami. noon on a sunny day, and you cannot drive through miami beach. very problematic.
WEATHER! WEATHER! WEATHER! WEATHER!
I just wanted everyone know the misery the neighbors are enduring as CoRev the mad barking dog creates as he chases his own tail all day.
Baffled, would you re-write that comment in English, please?
Also please explain the significance of this claim: “noon on a sunny day, and you cannot drive through miami beach. very problematic.” Noon on a sunny day is significant for what?
Are you so ignorant to think high tides correspond with the Sun?
BTW, why did you ignore remainder of my comment? ” In the case of the Alexandria, VA flooding shown it took a month long rainy period, coupled with a high tide, and I can almost assure that the wind direction was from a direction driving ocean waters up the Chesapeake Bay. “
“Baffled, would you re-write that comment in English, please?”
He did. You need it translated in barking dog.
Miami flooding without a weather event is very problematic. it is caused by increased sea levels. and is a problem that is getting worse each year. caused by climate change, covid.
Baffled claims: “Miami flooding without a weather event is very problematic. it is caused by increased sea levels. and is a problem that is getting worse each year. caused by climate change, ”
But NOAA says: “According to NOAA, Miami didn’t have high tide floods at all last year.”
and
“The number of high tide floods at Miami’s Virginia Key has been all over the map since NOAA started keeping track of them. In 2018, zero flood days were reported. In 2019, there were nine, a record. In 2020, there were six. In 2021, there were zero again.” Both quotes from this article: https://www.aol.com/news/miami-had-no-high-tide-184303923.html
I’m sure you have evidence and are not spouted unsupported opinion. That ole Climate ?change is responsible for all things, eh?
BTW, why did you ignore remainder of my previous comment? ” In the case of the Alexandria, VA flooding shown it took a month long rainy period, coupled with a high tide, and I can almost assure that the wind direction was from a direction driving ocean waters up the Chesapeake Bay.“
it appears covid still cannot read his own links. so here goes:
“On a year-over-year basis, it’s accelerating. However, in any given year you may be above or below that trend. That doesn’t mean you’re all of a sudden free from that flood issue.”
“That’s not a sign that climate change, which is expected to bring nearly two feet of sea rise to South Florida by 2060, is suddenly not a problem anymore. It just means that NOAA’s definition of a high tide flood isn’t the same as an average Miami resident. The agency’s nationwide standard doesn’t count the lower-level floods that still cause noticeable impacts, something researchers have pointed out for years.”
…on the moon cycle…
“Right now we’re sort of on a downswing nearing the bottom of the peak. And then it’s expected to swing upwards,” Sweet said.
That could mean high tides are as much as half a foot higher in the next few years, he said. For the highest tides of the year, King Tides, that could make a big difference in low-lying places like Miami.
“On the contrary, NOAA expects far more flooding in South Florida’s future.
By 2050, NOAA predicted that Miami could see 35 to 60 days of high tide flooding. That’s a jump from last year’s 2050 prediction of 10 to 55 days, likely a nod to the brand new sea level rise curves the agency released earlier this year.
Under NOAA’s intermediate sea level rise projections, which is the standard for South Florida governments, Miami could see high tide flooding almost every single day of the year by 2090, a sign that our current standard for high tide flooding could become the everyday high tide.”
you can also link to the following site, which is a bit more comprehensive on the subject than what covid provided, and has links to the noaa reports:
https://www.wptv.com/weather/noaa-to-issue-latest-projections-on-high-tide-flooding?
just for good measure, the lack of Miami flooding recently is not because the problem has gone away. it has to do with the moon being at a nadir related to king tide flooding in Miami. that will change very soon. and the floods will continue, more frequently.
covid, there is strong evidence to suggest the sunny day street flooding in Miami will continue to get worse. on the other hand, starting about a decade ago, Miami Beach has rebuilt miles of roadway at higher elevation. that has helped to reduce the flooding on the roads. but that is expensive. something you don’t want to pay for.
regarding the Alexandria flooding, what is your point? my brother lived in Alexandria at the time. you don’t think rising sea levels exacerbated the problem? month long deluge of rain is normal? give me some specifics here, on what your complaint is.
Baffled is finally aware that the MOON is mostly responsible for tides, and NOT the SUN at noon!
“baffling
August 24, 2022 at 8:20 am
…if (heavy rains) that is occurring more frequently due to climate change, then we have a problem. in addition to high king tides. but we know more frequent high king tides are a result of climate change. it has been an ongoing problem for years in miami. noon on a sunny day, and you cannot drive through miami beach. very problematic.” It is purely coincidental if a high tide occurred in Miami at noon.
https://mywaterearth.com/what-causes-a-king-tide/
“What causes a King Tide?
A King Tide is used to describe an especially high tide event occurring twice a year and is caused when there is an alignment of the gravitational pull between sun and moon. It occurs naturally, regularly and is predictable when the earth comes closest to the sun around Jan. 2. …
When King Tides occur during cyclones, floods, or storms, water levels can rise to higher levels and have the potential to cause great damage to property and the coastline. …
Most coastal areas in the world experience 2 Low Tides and 2 High Tides every lunar day or in 24 hours….
The gravitational attraction between the Earth and the Moon is strongest on the side of the Earth that happens to be facing the moon, simply because it is closer. ”
In addition to tides wind also significantly raises coastal water levels. When high winds (see the high light above) are combined with the easily predicted high and king tides, then extraordinarily high water and flooding can occur. The only climate component of these high tides is wind direction and strength. There is little empirical evidence showing climate change affects either. Most ?scientific? predictions of increases are models-based and empirically shown to be wrong.
So, your comment is not only wrong, but another logically and scientifically disproved Baffled opinion. Your ignorance does astound.
You are weird covid. My sunny day at noon comment simply indicated those floods are not weather driven events. It is not unusual for clear skies and land flooding to occur in miami beach. I am quite aware of the moon on tides. But rising sea levels and king tides are not mutually exclusive events. There is a mathematical concept called superposition which you should learn about covid. If a king tide occurs along with rising sea levels, the flooding problem is even worse. Now go take a nitro pill, ghostbuster, before you have another coronary.
Baffled, so that’s what you were TRYING to say? ” My sunny day at noon comment simply indicated those floods are not weather driven events.” Shuurre? 😉
Not once have you admitted or shown evidence that there are other causes to tidal flooding, than rising sea levels of mms/year, or climate change. you just made a mental slip of poor writing claiming sunny noon flooding … You’re kidding, right?
It’s like saying to stabilize an electric grid we need to add more unstable renewables sources to stabilize it. Yeah, that’s the ticket.
Covid, you are simply wrong. I am sorry you are too stooopid to understand the comment.
Let’s review. I post links to articles reviewing the work of reputable organizations such as NOAA. CoVid then pretends that my understanding is un question, so that he can cast doubt without having to overtly claim that he knows better than organizations like NOAA. Once again, CoVid is relying in rhetorical trickery. Seriously, what’s the point of all that stuff about Alexandria?
The truthis simply this – The links I post are generally to expert opinion. CoVid pretends it’s somehow my opinion, that I have misunderstood something. That’s utterly dishonest.
Read the links. They represent informed opinion on critical issues. Ignore CoVid. He represents “fake science”.
Show some respect. CoRev got his Ph.D. is dishonesty.
MD, I just pointed out the photographic trickery in YOUR NOAA reference. It is up there with the many pictures showing back lighted water vapor coming from a tower making WATER VAPOR look like smoke. Both are versions of photographic trickery.
The refutations I post are generally supported with links to scientific papers or expert opinion based upon data. My refutation to your claim includes data supported facts.
Do you know that science is based upon questioning findings? Only religions or religious zealots disallow questions.
I asked you several questions, why did you choose to ignore them?
“Do you know what happens to the Potomac River or any river water when the wind blows the water down river to the ocean?
BTW, do you know how much water level has risen on the East Coast in the past century? How large is that fractional rise compared to the five feet above normal rise?”
CoRev,
The problem here is that you are constantly claiming almost anytime somebody posts something about climate change that all they are really talking about is weather, and that nobody here except you knows the difference between the two.
But then we have Mcroduck linking to a NOAA study and you pop up with what is clearly a weather event,a 2015 flood in Alexandria. What a totaly screaming hypocrite you are, although hardly for the first time. This reminds me of Sen. Inhofe bringing a snowball into the Senate and declaring that it proves the end of global warming.
corev,
climate change is a religion
and you are apostate toward the stat religion!
they have jesuits you must worry!
Ah! Science is religion. Good to know.
Anonymous and CoRev are competing for being the stupidest commenter here.
Not just any religion. A stat religion.
MD, “Ah! Science is religion. Good to know.” The difference is clear. Science is based upon questioning and skepticism. Religious belief is based upon the opposite. These are basic concepts, and your reactive commenting is religious and not scientific.
My comments usually are questioning commenters’ belief. Too often the responses are unscientific and illogical. For example look at Barkley’s response to my pointing out the inappropriate and inaccurate picture in your NOAA reference.
Covid, you believe in ghosts. You have given up any rights to lecture others on science. Ghostbuster.
they have jesuits you must worry
Again, what?
sometimes the bots malfunction, and you get garbage out. coding issue.
“It took a month long rainy period..” And , CR, you’re the guy who insisted Huang and Swain’s discussion of a future California megaflood—one they clearly noted could well occur in a cool season 30 day period— when a series of atmospheric rivers had drenched the mountains, foothills, and valleys.
8/25 WaPo , Capicci and Patel: The same Daniel Swain is interviewed and the writers note that “A warmer climate is driving precipitation to extremes in both flooding and drought.
Warmer air holds more water. In fact for every higher degree Fahrenheit the atmosphere warms, the air can hold about 4 per cent more water. When there is more moisture available, …more moisture can be transported and dropped.”
Hence, the future possibility that atmospheric rivers, carrying more warmer precipitation, may equal or surpass the Great Flood of 1861-1862, especially in a 30 day period when one significant AR is followed by another.
To repeat. Last October, an AR dropped 12 inches of rain in my rain gauge in two days. Had that occurred in late winter or early spring—What Huang and Swain called “the cool season”— and had it been followed by two or three more such AR events, chaos would have followed.
Fairly evident that that climatologists (like you, I’m not one) are convinced that a warming climate will lead to more extreme precipitation events.
Of course, with your vast experience and extensive knowledge, you disagree . Maybe future AR events will be only a blip. We know you’re the recognized expert on blips.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/23/opinion/inflation-prices-food-employment-policy.html
August 23, 2022
Must we suffer to bring inflation down?
By Paul Krugman
Not long ago, many people were predicting a long, hot summer of inflation. To their surprise — and, for some Republicans, dismay — that isn’t happening. Overall consumer prices were flat in July, and nowcasts — estimates based on preliminary data — suggest that inflation will remain low in August.
However, I don’t know any economists who believe that inflation has been beaten. Much of the recent good news is the result of falling gas prices, which won’t continue. It’s true that we’ll probably get another round of good news from falling food prices: The Food and Agriculture Organization’s index of global food prices plunged in July, and the effect will probably show up in supermarket aisles in a few months:
https://static01.nyt.com/images/2022/08/23/opinion/krugman230822_1/krugman230822_1-jumbo.png?quality=75&auto=webp
Relief is coming at the supermarket.
In fact, beef is already getting cheaper.
Still, the Federal Reserve has learned from much experience not to let policy be driven by movements in volatile food and energy prices, and underlying inflation still looks high. So the Fed isn’t about to pivot; it will keep raising interest rates to cool off the economy, which is highly likely to lead to at least some rise in unemployment and quite possibly a recession.
In pursuing this strategy, the Fed is following policy orthodoxy. But are there less painful, heterodox strategies we could be following instead?
I’d like to believe that there are, and heterodoxy sometimes works. Unfortunately, I can’t see it working under current U.S. conditions.
What do I mean by heterodox policy? Broadly speaking, there are two ways to bring inflation down without putting the economy through a painful squeeze. One is what we used to call incomes policy: direct government intervention, whether through controls or moral suasion, to limit price increases. The other is policy to hold prices down by expanding supply.
Do incomes policies ever work? Yes. The classic example is Israel in the 1980s, a nation that experienced very high inflation, then brought inflation way down:
https://static01.nyt.com/images/2022/08/23/opinion/krugman230822_2/krugman230822_2-jumbo.png?quality=75&auto=webp
Israel’s great disinflation.
This achievement was made possible in large part through a package that included a temporary wage freeze and price ceilings. And Israel managed to go cold turkey on inflation without experiencing a severe recession.
But nothing like that seems possible in modern America. For one thing, Israel in the 1980s was the kind of place where you could get most of the major economic players together in a single room; the labor federation Histadrut represented about 80 percent of the work force.
Beyond that, Israel’s ’80s inflation probably reflected, in large part, self-fulfilling expectations of inflation. When that’s your problem, there’s a strong case for a timeout to break the cycle. But that isn’t what’s happening in America now, where long-term inflation expectations have stayed remarkably subdued:
https://static01.nyt.com/images/2022/08/23/opinion/krugman230822_3/krugman230822_3-jumbo.png?quality=75&auto=webp ….
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=T2t0
January 15, 2018
Consumer Prices for Israel, 2017-2022
(Percent change)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=T2ta
January 15, 2018
Consumer Prices for Israel, 2017-2022
(Indexed to 2017)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=T2wZ
January 15, 2018
Consumer Prices for Israel, 1992-2022
(Percent change)
The Food and Agriculture Organization’s index of global food prices plunged in July
From 160 to 140. Wow!
So expected inflation fell from 10% to 5% during the Reagan–Volcker recession. Of course, part of the fall inflation came from lower commodity prices and from the dollar appreciation’s impact on import prices.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=T3BY
August 4, 2014
Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for China, Turkey, Egypt and Israel, 1996-2021
(Percent change)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=T3C9
August 4, 2014
Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for China, Turkey, Egypt and Israel, 1996-2021
(Indexed to 1996)
Interestingly and importantly, China has just completed several infrastructure projects for Israel and at the personal request of President Isaac Herzog is working increasingly closely on cultural and economic relations with Israel. Then too, China is working as closely with Egypt and Egypt has just asked for inclusion in the BRICS partnership.
This is great and all, but you really insult Holocaust survivors and Jews in general by comparing Jewish persecution in history to the persecution you allege of the Chinese people by the West. You’ve done this over and over again.
China is a rising power, a state with a military. No one is even pretending to try to destroy China, or kill Chinese people. Certainly no state. It’s insane to suggest it.
The Jews of Europe were effectively stateless, and massacred in the millions because of a genocidal ideology.
The comparison is just disgusting. You’re hysterically exaggerating the threat China faces by standing on the graves of the dead, actual victims of arguably the greatest act of persecution in history.
In fact, you sound like Vladimir Putin.
the chinese persecution of its own minority ethnic groups should not be overlooked. the communist party is purging millions in what amounts to ethnic cleansing. yes ltr, i am looking at you when i make that statement. which cannot be refuted except with lies on your part.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-11-17/Xi-Jinping-holds-phone-talk-with-Israel-s-president-15gwM37TSAo/index.html
November 17, 2021
China vows to enhance innovation cooperation with Israel
China stands ready to promote the sustained, healthy and stable development of its innovative comprehensive partnership with Israel and bring more benefits to the two peoples, Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Wednesday.
President Xi made the remarks in a telephone conversation with Israeli President Isaac Herzog ahead of the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries next year.
China and Israel established diplomatic ties in January 1992. They announced a bilateral innovative comprehensive partnership in March 2017.
With complementary strengths in their economies, China and Israel are fully capable of conducting mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation, Xi stressed. Some Chinese companies have actively taken part in Israel’s infrastructure building, and many innovative companies from Israel are also doing business in China, he noted.
Xi underscored several cooperation projects between the two sides, including a new port in the northern Israeli coastal city of Haifa and two innovation parks in east China’s Changzhou and Shanghai. Innovation has become a highlight and booster for bilateral ties, he said.
China is willing to deepen cooperation with Israel in fields such as science and technology, agriculture and healthcare, said Xi. China also stands ready to expand exchanges and cooperation with Israel in culture, education, tourism and sports and enhance friendship between the two peoples, he added.
China welcomes Israel to join the Global Development Initiative, which was proposed by Xi when he attended the general debate of the 76th session of the United Nations General Assembly in September. It aims to steer global development toward a new stage of balanced, coordinated and inclusive growth in face of the severe shocks of COVID-19.
Herzog said Israel will never forget the help provided by the Chinese people to Jewish refugees during World War II. Israel firmly adheres to the one-China principle and is committed to deepening friendly relations with China, he said. Israel will work with China to celebrate the 30th anniversary of their diplomatic ties, he added.
Israel stands ready to strengthen exchanges and cooperation with China in science and technology, innovation, economic development, agriculture and sports, he told Xi….
Yeah, more propaganda, that’ll fix it.
Relevant to the prior post on the Taiwan Strait, which is now buried in the usual credit –
How good is China’s military?:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3189819/chinas-show-force-over-taiwan-chance-test-military-coordination
There has been an obvious effort to appear better coordinated, but that’s signaling and we don’t know whether, under actual war-time conditions, China’s military would perform well.
Among the issues discussed in this article are “grey-zone” tactics:
“China’s unprecedented exercises this month also underscore its growing use of grey-zone tactics,…(including) disinformation campaigns.”
In other words, ltr’s recent rabid behavior isn’t merely emotion, the effect of cognitive dissonance from pretending China is benevolent and good while China enslaves minorites and threatens to kill Taiwanese because Nancy Pelosi was a mean girl. Her masters had demanded that ltr turn up the volume on disinformation.
Sure seems that way.
The victimization narrative and comparisons with Hitler’s victims – utterly insane, BTW – sound like Margarita Simonyan or Vladimir Solovyov.
Andrew,
I think Itr is part of a troll farm with many contributors.
I imagine you’re right, and the messaging is coordinated.
Another thing I realized, AS, is how well targeted ltr’s propaganda is. It’s hardly perfect, but it’s probably the best they can do right now. Who’s Econbrowser’s audience? I’d guess, mostly a bunch of college-educated liberals and America’s five (six?) remaining Republican Jews under 80. Precisely the people who (ltr’s editorial staff thinks) would find some resonance with likening alleged Chinese persecution to that of the Jews.
Of course, this is incredibly ham-handed and just pisses us all off. They’re not big on actual history, only distorting it to glorify Party and Country.
—– enslaves minorities and threatens to kill ———
—– enslaves minorities and threatens to kill ———
—– enslaves minorities and threatens to kill ———
[ This is of course false and malicious; this is maliciously prejudiced. ]
Liar. The UN has found that China engages in slavery:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-17/un-slavery-expert-says-xinjiang-forced-labor-claims-reasonable
https://www.newsweek.com/united-nations-special-report-contemporary-slavery-china-xinjiang-uyghur-tibet-1734334
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/un-expert-concludes-forced-labour-has-taken-place-xinjiang-2022-08-18/
So have a number of other organizations:
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-that-still-have-slavery
This link indicates that China has he second highest number of slaves of any country in the world.
ltr lies when she claims China doesn’t engage in slavery. She’s paid to lie for China.
it is also true, no matter how much you play the stop being mean to me card, ltr. just a reminder, ltr is a paid propaganda hack by the ccp. that disclaimer should be mandated for every post ltr makes.
ltr might be interested in the experience of Chinese Americans: “Numbed with Fear: Chinese Americans and McCarthyism.”
It’s a great example of what happens when the government starts demonizing another country, not bothering to distinguish between the government, the people of that country, and Americans with that heritage. Recent examples include Muslims and Islamophobia. My own ancestors were of Swiss extraction but were very fearful during WWI because most Americans couldn’t distinguish them from the hated Germans. Many old-time folks from Wisconsin can tell similar stories.
link: https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/mccarthy-numbed-with-fear-chinese-americans/
yeah Johnh, lets attack america and defend the historical actions of china and soviet union. you are aware that mao and stalin both slaughtered millions of their own countrymen, as well as minorities in their own country? just curious, do you believe the atrocities of the United States exceeds those committed by mao and stalin? John, you seem to want to give a pass to nations and leaders that killed MILLIONS of there own people in political ideology.
Johnh, do you have any comment on the plight of the uighyers in china? or do they get a pass for genocide?
Yeah, let’s cover for forced labor now. You’re a hell of a guy, JohnH.
Is your desk right next to ltr’s?
—– recent rabid behavior…
—– recent rabid behavior…
—– recent rabid behavior…
[ Interesting, just as European Jews were demeaned simply for trying to properly represent Jews and for rejecting falseness. So, we now find the same behavior. Lion Feuchtwanger * sought to explain. Paul Robeson had such an experience…
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Feuchtwanger ]
China: The Global Leader in Political Prisoners
Beijing is a trend setter on a number of issues, but this one is nothing to be proud of. | Arch Puddington, Senior Scholar Emeritus, Freedom House (2018)
https://freedomhouse.org/article/china-global-leader-political-prisoners
An old scourge returns
During the 20th century, dictatorships of all stripes regularly sentenced opposition figures, political dissidents, and people who wrote critical commentaries to lengthy prison terms, often under grim conditions.
The global ranks of political prisoners dwindled substantially after the end of the Cold War and the collapse of tyrannical regimes almost everywhere. More recently, political prosecutions have ballooned again in countries like Turkey, Venezuela, and Azerbaijan.
China, however, is in a class by itself. Since the bloody 1989 crackdown on prodemocracy protests in Tiananmen Square, the Communist Party leadership has consistently jailed political dissidents, especially those who argued publicly for democratic change. And under Xi Jinping, the regime has rapidly expanded the scope of its repression, engulfing a numbing procession of lawyers, journalists, bloggers, women’s advocates, minority rights campaigners, and religious believers who have been detained, placed under house arrest, disappeared, or formally sentenced to prison.
In a reversal of the normal expectation that increased prosperity would nudge a society toward greater political freedom, modernization and wealth in China have been accompanied by more arrests and longer prison terms.
Names that should not be forgotten
The country’s most prominent political prisoner was Liu Xiaobo, the Nobel Peace Prize winner who died a year ago after serving eight years in prison, essentially for thinking and writing in ways that challenged the Communist Party leadership.
Recently, a group of Liu’s supporters announced the recipient of the Liu Xiaobo Conscience Award, an honor given to commemorate his example and to remind the world of the plight of those who have followed in his footsteps as a champion of democracy.
There were nine finalists for the prize, all current or recent political prisoners. The winner is Qin Yongmin, a human rights activist who, earlier this month, was given a 13-year prison sentence by a court in Wuhan. Prior to his sentencing, he endured an enforced disappearance, two years of pretrial detention, the persecution of his wife, and a total denial of due process rights. His lawyer withdrew from the case to avoid being punished by the authorities himself, a practice that has proliferated under Xi’s leadership.
The cases of other award finalists are depressingly similar.
Liu Ping: A member of the banned New Citizens Movement, which called for greater government transparency and stronger safeguards against official corruption, Liu was sentenced in 2014 to six and a half years in prison for “picking quarrels and provoking troubles,” “gathering a crowd to disrupt public order,” and “using a cult to undermine law enforcement.”
Hu Shigen: Hu previously served a 16-year prison term for circulating information about state violence during the Tiananmen Square massacre. In 2016, he was sentenced to another seven and a half years for “subversion of state power,” possibly connected to his role as an underground church elder.
Dhondup Wangchen: A Tibetan filmmaker, Dhondup Wangchen served a six-year prison sentence between 2008 and 2014 as a result of his documentary film Leaving Fear Behind. He remained under heavy surveillance until he fled to the United States in late 2017.
Gulmira Imin: Involved in campaigns for Uighur rights, she was given a life sentence for participating in a 2009 demonstration that turned violent. The charges were “splittism, leaking state secrets, and participating in an unlawful demonstration.”
Yu Wensheng: Yu, a human rights lawyer, was one of a small group of attorneys who sued the state over air pollution. He was arrested earlier this year.
Lü Gengsong: A writer and democracy advocate, Lu was sentenced in 2016 to a prison term of 11 years for “subverting state power.” The prosecution cited 11 articles he wrote for foreign publications that were critical of official corruption and abuse in China. Lü had previously served a four-year term on similar charges.
The remaining two finalists were Edward Leung, a Hong Kong independence activist who was sentenced last month to six years in prison on politically motivated rioting charges in that city, and Lee Ming-cheh, a Taiwanese democracy activist who was sentenced to five years in prison in China in 2017.
Leader of the pack
It’s worth noting that, in its attitude toward political dissent, the Chinese Communist Party has proven much harsher than the old Soviet regime of the Brezhnev era. Modern Chinese sentences are longer, the prospects for early release are far worse, and the Chinese authorities are generally unmoved by pleas for leniency from foreign diplomats.
When Xi Jinping laid out his plan for his country’s role as a global leader, he was careful to frame his ambitions as goals to be achieved some years down the road. He needn’t be so modest where political repression is concerned. Among major world powers, China is already number one.
Congressional-Executive Commission on China
Sen. Jeff Merkley, Chair
Political Prisoner Database
https://www.cecc.gov/resources/political-prisoner-database
China: List of Political Prisoners Detained or Imprisoned as of October 11, 2019 (1,598 Cases)
Representative Cases from the Political Prisoner Database
https://www.cecc.gov/sites/chinacommission.house.gov/files/documents/PPD-aw%20Representative%20cases%202017-12-01-003.pdf
Welcome to the free world, ltr.
Dui Hua Political Prisoner Database (San Francisco)
https://duihua.org/resources/political-prisoners-database/
Created in 2000, Dui Hua’s Political Prisoner Database (PPDB) contains information about political and religious prisoners incarcerated in China since 1980. Using mostly open-source materials, Dui Hua collects information on non-violent:
Political dissidents: people imprisoned for expressing their opposition to one-party rule by exercising universally recognized rights to free speech and association and often charged with “endangering state security” crimes such as “subversion” and “incitement”
Religious practitioners: people persecuted for holding religious beliefs that are not officially sanctioned, including members of house churches and Falun Gong
Ethnic minorities: people labeled “splittists” and jailed for participating in cultural and pro-independence movements
Petitioners: people jailed for seeking redress to grievances related to land seizure, demolition, corruption, miscarriages of justice, and other issues
The purpose of the PPDB is to advance clemency and better treatment for at-risk detainees by analyzing trends in the persecution of individuals who exercise their universal human rights to free speech, association, and expression; documenting the treatment of political and religious prisoners in the criminal justice system; providing raw material for the drafting of prisoner lists of concern; and informing dialogue with government officials inside and outside China.
Names: 46,717
People under coercive measures: 7,683
Official records: 21,565
Unofficial records: 38,491
as of Jun 30, 2022
Top Provinces
#1 Xinjiang 1,337
And for comparison:
# political prisoners in the United States: 0
Lets remember the housing market’s underlying demand trend was bloated by investor buying after the financial crisis. Something that wasn’t happening before 2008. This also means that investor buying is a large reason why sales surged during the pandemic and parts of the mid-late 10’s. Higher mortgage rates strip out the investors leaving “regular people left” for buying properties. Simply put Housing is not what it used to be for the US economy. The late 20th century primary dealer/baby boom driven surge is long over as its effect on credit markets. The primary dealers are outsourcing new real estate activity to nonbanks and putting more into nonresidential investment instead. With the water bubble popped out west(something they knew would happen in 1950) and many actors like China wanted to move on from dollar imperialism, the days of abundance are indeed ending. The US will have to go back to work again. Investment will rise. Manufacturing will reshore back to north america as supply chains are split.
fwiw, part of the issues is still exports/imports when counting gdp. Exports fell 3.2% in the first quarter, which I found suspicious(something I have posted on before). These issues are some of the most revised in the data. Covid really messed up government data. The seasonal/yearly adjustments just were destroyed. Look at July’s NFP and jobless claims. Both misleading, but due to Covid lockdowns creating adjustment issues.
Inflation is dead and was market failure. They over raised prices on the port clog and the shipping price surge. That completely was why prices rose. Vendors(which are mostly lead by white women nowadays fwiw, not that it matters but its a little detail and my family history there is now very huffy) lost control and corporate boards raised prices into a falling money supply as the government indicated last fall. When Biden intervened last fall, they should have trusted him. It would take time, but by the 2nd quarter the import crisis was over. So they were left with a ton overpriced junk that wasn’t moving. Shame on them.
Lets remember the housing market’s underlying demand trend was bloated by investor buying after the financial crisis. Something that wasn’t happening before 2008. This also means that investor buying is a large reason why sales surged during the pandemic and parts of the mid-late 10’s. Higher mortgage rates strip out the investors leaving “regular people left” for buying properties….
[ This is interesting; please set down a reference when possible. How is this to be researched? ]
Demographics and changing views by banks/consumers mean housing of the 1983-2006 variety ain’t coming back. Just accept it.
That’s completely wrong. Millennials are the richest cohort ever, and currently the largest demographic group. They’re the ones driving the (now easing) housing boom.
“Individual investors or second-home buyers purchased 14% of the homes in July, down from a share of 16% in June and May, from 17% in April, 18% in March, 19% in February, and 22% in January, according to NAR data. In other words, individual investors and second-home buyers are pulling back faster than others.”
https://wolfstreet.com/2022/08/18/housing-recession-sales-plunge-to-lockdown-levels-active-listings-surge-prices-begin-to-dip-price-reductions-spike-investors-pull-back/
Some investors may also engage in profit taking (selling while prices are at peak). The should increase inventories and help reduce prices.
Your whole thesis is utter nonsense. Prices fell with demand after 2008. What exactly were these “investors” doing with their investments? Sitting on them, waiting for people to start wanting houses again? Were there renters sitting on the sidelines, somehow previously denied access to these investment properties? How many years did it take for their investments to see a return? Was that in any reasonable way a good investment, given what was happening in, say, the tech sector or in biotech or in emerging markets?
The wage component of inflation is itself very clear evidence that “inflation is dead and was market failure” is about as smart as anything Steve Kopits has said recently.
https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/
FAO Food Price Index
The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) is a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities. It consists of the average of five commodity group price indices weighted by the average export shares of each of the groups over 2014-2016.
Monthly release dates for 2022: 6 January, 3 February, 4 March, 8 April, 6 May, 3 June, 8 July, 5 August, 2 September, 7 October, 4 November, 2 December.
FAO Food Price Index registered a steep drop in July
The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) averaged 140.9 points in July 2022, down 13.3 points (8.6 percent) from June, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Nevertheless, it remained 16.4 points (13.1 percent) above its value in the corresponding month last year. The July decline was the steepest monthly fall in the value of the index since October 2008, led by significant drops in vegetable oil and cereal indices, while those of sugar, dairy and meat also fell but to a lesser extent.
Analogies of prejudice and persecution among a range of peoples are of course proper and necessary in making clear what prejudice is about. As European Jews were falsely accused and expelled from countries in Europe, as from Spain and England, so the Chinese Exclusion Act * became American law in 1882, building on the Page Act of 1875, and lasting to 1943 when 105 Chinese immigrants to America were to be allowed each year. There was actually an expulsion of Chinese from the United Kingdom ** after World War II, to continue the proper analogy.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Exclusion_Act
** https://newseu.cgtn.com/news/2022-08-03/Report-shows-deportation-of-Chinese-stain-on-our-history-says-UK-MP-1caYq1hurq8/index.html
August 3, 2022
‘Damning’: UK lawmaker wins admission of ‘racist’ deportations of Chinese after WWII
Yes, the analogy with European Jews subject to prejudice is proper and necessary if the demeaning of the people of China is to be understood. The Chinese of course were sympathetic to and sheltered European Jews in the 1930s and 1940s, and indeed a museum has been built in Shanghai to memorialized the Jews who sheltered there.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-11-17/Xi-Jinping-holds-phone-talk-with-Israel-s-president-15gwM37TSAo/index.html
November 17, 2021
Herzog said Israel will never forget the help provided by the Chinese people to Jewish refugees during World War II. Israel firmly adheres to the one-China principle and is committed to deepening friendly relations with China, he said. Israel will work with China to celebrate the 30th anniversary of their diplomatic ties, he added.
Israel stands ready to strengthen exchanges and cooperation with China in science and technology, innovation, economic development, agriculture and sports, he told Xi….
ltr, why do you deny the current incarceration and murder of minorities in china by the ccp? your analogy to the jewish experience has some accuracy, but not in the way you are saying. why is the ccp not sympathetic to the plight of minorities in western china? stop the propaganda ltr. your arguments are vile.
Dr. Oz pulls out the Trump play book:
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/oz-campaign-fetterman-stroke-vegetable
The campaign for Pennsylvania GOP Senate nominee and television personality Dr. Mehmet Oz claimed his Democratic rival, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, would not have suffered a stroke if he had “ever eaten a vegetable in his life.” The remarks come shortly after a video by Oz went viral in which he mispronounced the name of a regional grocery chain while discussing rising consumer costs and the price of “crudité.” Fetterman suffered a stroke just days before the May primary and has made a gradual return to the campaign trail in a race in which he leads Oz by a wide margin, according to recent polls. In remarks to Insider amid its reporting on Oz, Rachel Tripp, his senior communications adviser, said, “If John Fetterman had ever eaten a vegetable in his life, then maybe he wouldn’t have had a major stroke and wouldn’t be in the position of having to lie about it constantly.” In a press release, the Fetterman campaign called the comment “unhinged and irresponsible” and touted a letter signed by more than 100 Pennsylvania doctors that said Oz practices poor medicine “by promoting unproven, ill-advised, and at times potentially dangerous treatments.” Fetterman later shamed the Oz campaign for the attack. “I know politics can be nasty, but even then, I could *never* imagine ridiculing someone for their health challenges,” he tweeted Tuesday night.
Look – I’m sure Fetterman could have eaten healthier but consider Krispie Kreme Chris Christie or Oz’s hero Donald Trump. Their diets are not exactly on par with Tom Brady’s. And the idiots who followed the advice of “Dr.” Oz likely have had poor health outcomes.
Exactly. Imitating a “veggie juice liberal”, moralizing about bad diets is not going to win over a lot of average Pennsylvania voters. Pointing out that you opponent is “one of us” eating steaks and loaded baked potatoes, probably isn’t such a good idea either (especially since it suggests that you are not).
This is like calling Trump fat. It backfires because many Americans are overweight. It’s mocking them directly. Oz is just proving Fetterman’s campaign right.
Talk about desperation. But I hear garlic is a cure-all.
Trump is seriously fat but not as fat as Chris Krispie Creme Christie.
That’s exactly the point. People mocked Christie for his weight, and there were campaign ads making fun of his weight. It backfired. Not only do regular people relate to overweight leaders, these attacks appeared to be a dig at his Italian heritage too. It’s just an insult to voters.
dr. oz is speaking directly to corev, coronary boy.
11 of 38 posts by ltr on this site. and many of them are propaganda links to the ccp. stop spreading propaganda, ltr.b you are polluting the site with rubbish.
ltr is to Econbrowser what JohnH was to EconomistView. But no worries – JohnH has decided to become Princeton Steve’s and Bruce Hall’s new BFF.
Another chapter in the book of collateral benefits from the Russian invasion of Ukraine
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/24/business/germany-solar-power-russia-gas-crisis-intl-hnk/index.html
Germany is fast and effectively shifting away from Russian natural gas to renewable energy. Remember that even if peace breaks out and the West becomes amenable to purchase Russian hydrocarbons again – the shift is basically locked in because after construction of wind or solar facilities the “harvest” of energy is almost free. OPEC has decided to help with its own demise by now talking about cutting production to keep prices above $90. That is exactly where we need it, to keep the shift away from hydrocarbons turbocharged, even in US.
I hope this is right, but right now the goal is avoiding too much hardship this winter. If they can do that, Putin loses bigtime. The long-term changes are just gravy (and also good for carbon emissions of course).
PMIs look like garbage.
If you meant private mortgage insurance, these policies have always been trash.
BTW PMI can stand for a lot of things including Philips Morris International.
I get you THINK you are too SPECIAL to write clearly. But you are not. Learn to write troll.
Of course, you would have to have some notion of economics to understand that PMI in this context surely means ‘Purchasing Managers’ Index’.
https://www.economy.com/united-states/purchasing-managers-index
I was referring specifically to this one:
The data published by S&P Global showed on Tuesday that the business activity in the US private sector contracted at a stronger pace in early August than it did in July with the Composite PMI falling to 45 from 47.7. The Manufacturing PMI declined to 51.3 from 52.2 and the Services PMI plunged to 44.1 from 47.3. Both of these readings fell short of market expectations.
Commenting on the data, “August flash PMI data signalled further disconcerting signs for the health of the US private sector.
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-sp-manufacturing-pmi-drops-to-513-in-august-composite-pmi-slumps-to-45-202208231355
“you would have to have some notion of economics”
Steve Kopits say what?
Stevie must have an entire team of people mining every piece of meaningless data to find just one that has declined recently. Econometricians call this fishing. The rest of us call this behavior dishonest trolling.
That data is for Juky. When September’s come in stringer(August) what will you say then????
Juky is my favorite month. If PMI recovers, I’ll say ,”PMI has recovered,” just as I have said that IUCs have stabilized in the last month and today are reported down, which suggests stability and not recession at this point in time.
Juky? I guess you meant JULY is your favorite month. Funny thing 30 year mortage rates FELL in JULY but you kept telling us they rose. Yes – you are our favorite LIAR.
“Steven Kopits
August 24, 2022 at 9:18 am
PMIs look like garbage.”
That is your entire comment. Context? You are a truly worthless troll.
petroleum is in recession. gasoline price decline, i believe, is from demand destruction.
world crude prices would be north of $120 were there strong economies from beijing to berlin and new york.
this weeks (19 aug data) eia has clue:
usa exports of all product were: 2.6 million barrel per day, week 19 aug. cumulative average net exports as of this report ~.53 million per day! now fox news can complain the large exports are keeping prices high but…
usa total crude stock 874 million drawn down 11.4% w on w; and down 17% y on y.
and prices are not rising with supply drawing.
gasoline is only down 4.5% year on year!
slight rise in diesel price bc distillates are down 19.4% y on y and winter is coming with high nat gas prices some electricity will be from stove oil.
and the strat petrol reserve will be selling light sweet….
winter is coming
That is because supplies aren’t drawing. Matter of fact, the opposite is happening.
From this week’s report:
The Economy
The last few weeks saw somewhat improved macro indicators.
– Gasoline demand saw life, initial unemployment claims plateaued and consumer sentiment rebounded modestly.
This week, the numbers look darker again
– Gasoline demand has once again taken a dive.
– Consumer sentiment, while better, remains deep in recession territory
– US composite PMIs are screaming not only recession, but a hard landing at that.
We are left under the impression that the US will experience two recessions in short order
– The first of these represented the roll-off of fiscal stimulus in H1 2022, leading to a technical recession with two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP but no corresponding rise in unemployment.
– This was a fiscal contraction of a magnitude rarely seen in US history, with February to October 1947 being perhaps the most relevant precedent. At that time, US government spending collapsed as WWII ended, leading to a decline in GDP but no rise in unemployment and a quick recovery
– The second recession will be of the more traditional sort, resulting from interest rate hikes intended to quell unacceptably high inflation.
– This will lead to a reduction in economic activity, most notably in housing construction. Given the backlog of construction, such a recession would appear more likely to begin in Q4 2022 or perhaps Q1 2023, with a brief and shallow recovery this quarter, extending perhaps into Q4.
US Oil Markets
The oil markets numbers were ugly this week
– Demand looked awful
– Total refined product supplied (demand) has hit a new low for this year, now 13% below the level of early Q1.
– Gasoline demand also fell sharply again, now 10% below the level at the start of the year. This occurred despite pump prices having fallen for more than two months, suggesting structural problems in the economy
– Distillate demand held up reasonably well, while jet fuel supplied was weak
– Refinery runs remain notably soft
– By absolute, historical standards, crude inventories are low.
– However, inventories are ample, including both crude and refined products, when adjusted for reduced demand and seasonality
– US crude and condensate production fell 0.1 mbpd to 12.0 mbpd. With these last two weeks of declines, US production can be considered range bound since April
– Oil prices are up on supply concerns and US crude draws, +$7 / barrel over last week to $95 /barrel on a WTI basis.
The problem is, there is no supply issue. Builds come in waves. When will you get it??? See 2018 which’s timing is similar. Oil demand poor???
Give me a break.
From this week’s EIA PSR, we can say that, at 19.3 mbpd, total product supplied was 2.9 mbpd below normal for the week, 7.8% below normal on a 4 wma basis. That’s poor demand, in fact, quite poor demand.
Could you write in English? Seriously? Actual references to data? DAMN. I’m looking at the data, Production is not as high as it was two months ago but it is above where it was a year ago.
If you think your incoherent babble traces out demand and supply curve movements, you are dumber than even I give you credit for.
I used to go to Lake Lanier with my dad to fish. Stevie goes fishing with the hoards of economic data which he can cherry pick and misrepresent. Of course, I prefer the fishing on Lake Lanier because we got to cook and eat the fish we caught. Stevie’s fishing nets only some of the dumbest comments the internet has ever produced.
From this week’s report:
Notice how Princeton Troll did not tell us WHAT report or provide a link. Could he be lying here? After all, he lies a LOT.
Stevie is telling us EIA data shows oil demand is “poor”. Seriously? This article cites the EIA and has a very different take:
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2022/8/10/u-s-oil-output-set-for-record-2023-despite-slowing-growth/
(Bloomberg) — U.S. oil production remains on track for a record 2023 even as output grows more slowly than anticipated amid surging costs and labor shortages in America’s shale fields. Output is expected to expand at an average rate of 840,000 barrels a day next year, down from a prior forecast of 860,000, according to the Energy Information Administration. While production is still seen reaching an all-time high in 2023, the government revised its forecast slightly lower to 12.7 million barrels a day. The current annual record is 12.3 million set in 2019.
The reduced supply forecast may weigh on an already stretched market after Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine prompted widespread bans on Russian energy. The US was previously a key swing producer, usually capable of ramping up supply quickly as global demand shifts. In recent years, however, shale drillers have limited growth in favor of increasing shareholder returns and in the face of soaring oilfield costs. The EIA also lowered this year’s production forecast, estimating US output will average 11.86 million barrels a day in 2022. That’s the lowest forecast since the agency’s January report.
Meanwhile, the agency sees global petroleum consumption growing by 2.1 million barrels day this year and next, but cautioned that a recession poses demand risks. “Less robust economic activity in our forecast could result in lower-than-forecast energy consumption,” the agency said Wednesday.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/world_crude_oil_production
Stevie is mumbling again. Not providing a clearly defined source. Talking about production – was that US only or world production? This lying troll will not say.
Now I have provided a graph of world oil production over the past 5 years. It rose a LOT from June 2000 until a few months ago as has dipped a little since. This does not describe weak demand to me. Then again I have listened to Steve’s mumbling and it is so incoherent who knows?