Down slightly in November.
Figure 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median expected from Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), median expected from Michigan Survey of Consumers FINAL (red), median from NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (light green), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), mean from Coibion-Gorodnichenko firm expectations survey [light blue squares], all in %. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, University of Michigan via FRED and Investing.com, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed and Coibion and Gorodnichenko, and NBER.
With such a wide range of forecasts, I was going to say that one of them is bound to be right,,,at least kind of close. But after looking at last year’s dismal results, I’m not so sure. The closest forecast to actual 2022 inflation at roughly this point in 2022 was the NY Fed, and they were still 1.3% off.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/02/inflation-expectations-at-1-year-horizon
For the most part it seems that forecasters doubled down on their wildly wrong forecasts from last year, adjusting them by 0.6%. Only CG took the plunge and adjusted Their 2022 forecast upwards by 1.8%.
Of course this has been noted before…and should not be news to anyone.
https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/10/inflation-expectations.html
Citing Johnny Cochrane and Torsten Slok (Apollo Global Management) these days? Macroduck and Moses had said you were a right winger in disguise. I guess it is now official.
Instead of refuting Cochrane’s data, pgl engages in his usual smear tactics.
Cochrane has his share of nutcases in the comment section including someone who actually wrote:
This is one case where it might be necessary to consider two items that are left out of the inflation debate: 1) money supply and 2) levels vs. growth rates. The level of the money supply rose about 30% in one year (Divisia M4 growth was most recently at 2.5% growth). The price level should jump by a proportional amount but it takes time for the price level to catch up.
The Quantity Theory of Money again? And we thought only Princeton Steve was this insane.
How about trying to refute Cochrane’s data showing how bad consensus forecasts are?
As the forecasts were really postcasts on the upswing, it is likely they will also lag on the downswing.
Off topic, Covid n China –
Since Chinese data are unreliable, it’s useful to have proxies for China’s infection rate. Here’s one:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/russellflannery/2023/01/02/nearly-28-of-mainland-china-arrivals-at-taiwans-busiest-airport-test-positive-for-covid-sunday/
This says 28%, but that’s probably low, since those with obvious symptoms might not travel.
Agree. If we presume you stay Covid positive for 10 days then at least 2.8% of Chinese get Covid every day at this time. That is about 30 million new cases per day. It looks like Xi has decided to “just get it over with” regardless of cost (in a let-the-weak-die kind of way).
@ Macroduck
Terrific find by you, as per usual. Finding good proxies is the hard part, I’d say you found one there. My understanding was most countries were not going to limit mainland Chinese people’s travel (which in countries which have a good vaccine available and well-distributed, I think that is the right decision, to allow mainland Chinese access to foreign travel). I would think other airports/destinations might offer additional proxy numbers for cross-reference to each other, but then again maybe those are useless if they have to show clean tests before they can take a seat on an airplane.
It seems very odd to say the best stats would be from inside China, but who is going to collect the data with the Government threat hanging over their head?? The Li Wenliangs of the world are an extremely rare breed.
Reuters reports that forecasted oil prices for 2023 may see small gains, but economic weakness globally is holding those prices down.
“The oil market is still tight despite a weakening global demand outlook as recession fears run wild,” said Edward Moya, senior analyst with OANDA, adding that China will be the primary focus in the first quarter of next year.
Most analysts said oil demand will grow significantly in the second half of 2023, driven by the easing of COVID-19 restrictions in China and by central banks adopting a less aggressive approach on interest rates.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/economic-weakness-set-weigh-oil-price-2023-2022-12-30/
Note: the graph heading is: Oil price forecasts for 2023, but the graph timeline shows 2022 which may be a mistake out of habit writing 2022.
This would seem to indicate that inflation pushed by oil prices should ease considerably from 2022.
On a different front, fertilizer shortages and price inflation may lead to food shortages in many commodities worldwide and in the US.
Chris Cuomo, pgl’s favorite newsperson, has this to say about that:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/food-shortages-may-get-even-worse-in-2023-here-s-why/ar-AA15IlEZ
Of course, energy and food are non-core regarding inflation, so they don’t matter.
Likewise, home prices are definitely weakening, but not like 2007. But that’s non-core, so that doesn’t matter.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/second-biggest-home-price-correction-181833868.html
But 3-4% overall inflation is a definite improvement over 2021-22 transitory inflation.
All things are only transitory.
— Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
“Chris Cuomo, pgl’s favorite newsperson”
Seriously troll? I despise this stupid reporter. But at least he does not have to have his mommy buy groceries for him like you do. And I bet your mommy is going to really hate her son for saying what she pays for groceries does not matter.
Come on Brucie – you once again write a lot of snide stuff that contributes nothing except to remind of us of what a dumb dork your really are.
“the graph heading is: Oil price forecasts for 2023, but the graph timeline shows 2022 which may be a mistake out of habit writing 2022.”
Good Lord moron – learn to read the descriptions in the graph such as the subheader which told the careful reader that they were charting forecasts not actual spot rates. Or the label at the bottom where the graph was a poll of forecasts.
Brucie – we have made this offer to you before. Sign up for a remedial reading class as you need it. We’ll pay for the tuition since you can’t afford it.
“A survey of 30 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude would average $89.37 a barrel in 2023, about 4.6% lower than the $93.65 consensus in a November survey.”
This line corresponds to that graph which Brucie boy clearly did not understand. Come on Brucie – if you are going to link to a discussion, do trying READING the entire thing before making your usual embarrassing comments. Or do we need to remind you that forecasts are not the same thing as spot rates? DAMN!
Poor little Kevin McCarthy:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/kevin-mccarthy-set-to-fall-short-on-first-vote-for-speaker-in-historic-defeat/ar-AA15W1ay
House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield) fell short of the necessary number of Republican votes to succeed Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) as speaker in an initial roll call Tuesday, and appeared set to become the first majority party leader in a century to fail to secure the speakership on the first ballot.
McCarthy went down to Maro Lago to kiss Trump’s ring and yet it is some from the MAGA crowd that turned on him. The House Republicans alas are dominated by a pack of mobsters, racists, and perverts. MAGA!
Making the case for Speaker Jeffries:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/democrat-mocks-kevin-mccarthy-and-attacks-trump-on-house-floor-during-speaker-speech/ar-AA15VWp9?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=79a76f54a89e4ae6b516ea31913a4e0d
Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-CA) mocked McCarthy, who is vying for the speakership himself, for his support of former President Donald Trump as Aguilar praised Jeffries amid a contentious speaker’s election on Tuesday. The first day of the 118th Congress will decide if McCarthy’s weeks of negotiating with the conservative wing of his conference end with the gavel in his hand.
“[Jeffries] does not traffic in extremism,” Aguilar said in the speech. “He does not grovel to or make excuses for a twice-impeached, so-called former president. Madame Clerk, he does not bend the knee to anyone who would seek to undermine our democracy because, Madame Clerk, that’s not what leaders do.”
Did I say that Donald Trump is a disgusting racist?
https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/trumps-offensive-ruby-freeman-reaches-ugly-new-level-rcna64038
‘Around midnight last night, for reasons that aren’t yet clear, Donald Trump used his social media platform to launch a new offensive against an old perceived foe. It started with this unfortunate missive:
“Wow! Has anyone seen the Ruby Freeman ‘contradictions’ of her sworn testimony? Now this is ‘BIG STUFF.’ Look what was captured by Cobb County police body cameras on January 4, 2021. … Now it gets really bad.”
Soon after, the former president published another item, accusing Freeman of election crimes, followed by a third missive, in which the Republican asked, “What will the Great State of Georgia do with the Ruby Freeman MESS?” Trump concluded that he’s battling “the evils and treachery of the Radical Left monsters who want to see America die.” Both items referred to “suitcases” filled with ballots that Trump believes Freeman opened, all as part of the crime that was committed only in his imagination.’
If you do not know who Ruby Freeman is – she is a sweet hard working person just doing her job. But of course she is black so Trump thinks he can get away with destroying her life. After all – the MAGA hat crowd revels in his disgusting racism.
Votes for Speaker of the House
Jeffries: 212
McCarthy: 203
Other Republican nutcases: 19
Maybe the House should just let Jeffries be Speaker!
Liz Cheney would be an interesting option.
That’s a “non-starter” for Republicans, which I assume you already knew but still feel it needs being stated.
I would assume this cooks McCarthy’s goose for leadership. I knew he was out in California but had never bothered to check it was Bakersfield. Wow, have you guys seen that small city lately?? Bakersfield is so ravaged with homelessness and crime there are multiple YT live streams dedicated to only listening to the police scanner, chasing crimes and (again, multiple live streams)) driving around feeding the homeless and giving them makeshift tents during the in-between time of chasing crimes. The film “Nightcrawler” with Jake Gyllenhaal would give you a very rough idea (Gyllenhaal’s being the way more hygienic version). That’s when they’re not watching people get high on narcotics at 2-4 infamous mini-marts of Bakersfield. I would think McCarthy’s political opponents would “have a field day” just running random videos of “the goings on” of Bakersfield. Makes Cleveland, Detroit, and Jersey look like healthy places to live. Now compare McCarthy’s Bakersfield to a place that Rick Stryker makes fun of as a “liberal hell hole”~~Madison WI, and you’ll start to get the TRUE future that the Rick Strykers, McKinsey &Co managament consultants, Romneys, and Kopitses envision for America. Bakersfield is their fantasy future for 98% of America~~while they themselves live in the “liberal dives” of Cape Cod Massachusetts etc.
I don’t disagree about Cheney, but I know it would drive McCarthy and trump nuts! and to be sure, it would be a deal struck between democrats and only a few republicans. it is too bad that the kinzingers of the world are no longer in congress, because this type of threat could be realistic at that point. but I don’t think you can pick off enough republicans for the democrats to pull off such a stunt. but it would be epic for a minority party to determine the speaker of the house like that.
more likely than Cheney, mainstream republicans will eventually form a deal with some conservative/moderate democrats for a new speaker. not sure who that would be though. the nutcase right wing may make it impossible for republicans only to choose a leader.
enjoying watching the dumpster fire for now though.
There was a lot of discussion about AOC fluttering around two of the more seedier Republicans yesterday. I was trying to figure out how she got the idea into her head that it was a good idea. She was thinking what??
1) Negotiating?? (what made her think those two clowns were the ones in the GOP to negotiate with??)
2) Getting media attention?? (seems like a very poor choice to get media attention)
3) Showing other women she was not afraid to physically confront two men who had verbally harassed/threatened her in the past?? (Maybe a good example in some ways, as a show of strength, but is that the actual message she wants to send to other women~~”Go hang out with guys who threaten your mortality”??)
Although I am a huge fan of AOC’s in general, I thought it showed very poor judgement on her part.