In line with expectations.
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (black), civilian employment adjusted to nonfarm payroll concept (tan), Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages total employment (green), and private nonfarm payroll employment (red), all in logs 2021M12=0. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, BLS, and author’s calculations.
Note that the change in private NFP undershot expectations slightly, as well as that predicted by ADP private NFP.
Figure 2: BLS nonfarm payroll employment sebries (black), and predicted (light blue), +/- 1 std error (gray lines), and Bloomberg consensus of 4/6, all s.a. Source: BLS (February, March releases), ADP via FRED, Bloomberg and author’s calculations.
Getting employment growth to just over 200 thousand a month strikes me as that soft landing scenario. After all inflation is moderating and the employment to population rate is back to 60.4%.
Off topic but big issue:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/texas-federal-judge-halts-fda-approval-of-abortion-pill-mifepristone-biden-administration-filing-appeal/ar-AA19BNcA
A federal judge in Texas on Friday halted the Food and Drug Administration’s approval of the abortion pill mifepristone, delivering a blow to abortion rights advocates in the wake of the Supreme Court’s dismantling of the constitutional right to abortion. In a 67-page opinion, U.S. District Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk said the FDA’s two-decade-old approval violated a federal rule that allows for accelerated approval for certain drugs and, along with subsequent actions by the agency, was unlawful. He put his decision on hold for seven days to allow for the Biden administration to appeal to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit. The Biden administration indeed filed its notice of appeal late Friday night. In a statement late Friday night strongly condemning the ruling, President Biden said that the “Court in this case has substituted its judgment for FDA, the expert agency that approves drugs. If this ruling were to stand, then there will be virtually no prescription, approved by the FDA, that would be safe from these kinds of political, ideological attacks.” “The lawsuit, and this ruling, is another unprecedented step in taking away basic freedoms from women and putting their health at risk,” Biden said.
Mifepristone has been safely used for over 20 years so the “logic” from the anti-choice zealots is just nuts. But of course they shopped for a zealot judge and got one. A Washington State court yesterday ruled on the same issue and decided in favor of the FDA approval. Time for an Appeals Court to hear this case.
https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2023-04-08/abortion-pill-order-latest-contentious-ruling-by-texas-judge
Legal experts warned of questionable arguments and factual inaccuracies in the suit for months, but Kacsmaryk essentially agreed with all the plaintiffs’ major points, including their contention the FDA didn’t adequately review mifepristone’s safety. Medical groups, by contrast, point out mifepristone has been used by millions of women over the past 23 years, and complications occur at a lower rate than with other routine procedures like wisdom teeth removal and colonoscopies.
Kacsmaryk’s decision relied on junk science. It is as if CoRev served as his legal aid.
There I am again in that comfortable lounge chair in your head. 😉
https://twitter.com/thinking_panda/status/1644368570141507584
ShanghaiPanda @thinking_panda
President Xi told a story to President Macron:
Chinese ancient musicians Yu Boya and Zhong Ziqi’s friendship was strengthened by music.Boya played a piece of music that only Ziqi could understand,demonstrating that true friendship requires mutual understanding and appreciation
11:56 AM · Apr 7, 2023
This story implies that… In international politics, mutual understanding and appreciation are key to building strong relationships between nations… by valuing and respecting each other’s differences, nations can find common ground and work together towards common goals.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FtH6VGWaEAEL0vA?format=jpg&name=small
Despite having different political systems,ideologies,and histories,both China & France are major powers with significant geopolitical & economic influence. Both countries should seek common ground while respecting differences,together maintain peace & prosperity for both nations
UPDATE IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS:
Xi Jinping still sucking on Putin’s A$$, even after Putin had 9 Chinese nationals murdered.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/witnesses-accuse-russias-wagner-group-of-killing-9-chinese-miners-in-central-african-republic
https://www.vice.com/en/article/3aknd3/central-african-republic-chinese-miners-attack-wagner-russia
https://twitter.com/zhao_dashuai/status/1637766154973487104 <—-Obviously Xi "Winnie-the-Poo" Jinping has no problem kissing the feet of foreigners who murder Chinese nationals.
What a great leader Xi Jinping is. Xi Jinping is always submissive to foreigners who murder Chinese. Praise him all Chinese who love watching Xi Jinping cater to foreigners who mass murder Chinese. Xi Jinping rule forever!!!! Xi numbaw one !!!!!
Looking at 17 categories of nonfarm payroll, my hobby efforts as of today, show an increase of 166k for April 2023. Various categories are showing close to no change, so there are fewer categories to allow for offsetting errors.
Trying to use PAYEMS to make a confirming forecast, is not helpful, since I find that dlog(PAYEMS) shows a stochastic trend for various time periods.
I may be demoted and lose my hobby status, if this forecast is too far off the mark. I could find no other forecasts to compare, so I may be in the category of confirming the saying, “better to remain silent and be thought a fool, then to open my mouth and remove all doubt”.
You’ve gotten better as you’ve gone a long. I think your efforts have been very far from “in vain”. You got respect from this Joe Six Pack, for whatever that’s worth. Hell, if I had got an economist at Menzie’s level to mention my efforts in the posts portion of the blog, I’d have pitched a tent right then and figured I’de made it to the bigtime.
You do the work. That matters. And as Samuel Goldwyn said, “The harder I work, the luckier I get.”
Summary of the worst problems with economic models
https://prospect.org/economy/2023-04-05-six-ways-economic-models-killing-economy/
Way to kind – but true.
Ivan: I’d say not models in general, but Beacon Hill models, sure, they’re killer. Really, just like I wouldn’t want to critique epidemiological models, I don’t think philosophy majors should try to dissect public finance models.
Fair enough. The usefulness and performance of any model depends on the competence of the people creating them. Biases and outcome shopping from the media moguls may prevent the best performing model from being the one that gets on the evening news (and shape policies).
A couple of things which are worth reading if realism in economic modeling is of interest:
https://faculty.babson.edu/krollag/org_site/org_theory/granovet_articles/friedman_econ.html
https://ojs.ehu.eus/index.php/THEORIA/article/view/18133
The Friedman piece is a classic. Very influential. The Ivarola piece is not a classic, but gives Friedman a good rethink.
Ideologically, I have no problem with Hanauer’s complaint, but I think Menzie has been too kind in suggesting we beware of non-specialist critiques. Hanauer is pretty naive. Models aren’t the problem. Economists who act as hired guns are the problem. The same is true food scientists, drug scientists, earth scientists…
And the “economics isn’t a real science” thing? Who cares?
As a counter point to the constant harping from the GOP talking heads and the media repeats of “a recession must becoming” – I would like to post this data-driven take on the economy – “With Democrats Things Get Better” – https://digbysblog.net/2023/04/08/with-democrats-things-get-better/ – the data show that Democrat Administrations are better for the economy in ways that matter for people – for example – During the Biden Presidency America has seen: – the lowest poverty rate ever recorded; – the lowest uninsured rate every recorded and – the lowest peacetime unemployment rate since WWII – not just GOP tax cuts for rich people/speculative bubbles in the stock market.