Plain Vanilla Term Spread Recession Probabilities

Anxiety provoking graphs generated while prepping for lecture.

Figure 1: Probability of recession in indicated month, from 10yr-3mo term spread model (blue), from 10yr-2yr model (tan), and 10yr-3mo US and foreign term spread + national financial conditions index model (green). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: Federal Reserve, Chicago Fed via FRED, OECD, NBER, and author’s calculations.

Probit regression results, estimated 1986-2023M03. The US & foreign term spread + financial conditions index specification is a stripped down version of the model used in Ahmed and Chinn (2022) (i.e., I dropped the statistically insignificant variables).

Interestingly, the probability of being in a recession as of now (April 2023) is 19% using the 10yr-2yr spread, but only 2% using the 10yr-3mo spread.

84 thoughts on “Plain Vanilla Term Spread Recession Probabilities

    1. Moses Herzog

      These Chinese Gestapo were going after pro-Democracy Chinese residing in America:

      And Xi JInping and his butt-buddies are the ones sobbing about “interference in China’s internal affairs”?? Hilarious. Apparently Xi Jinping believes in the same Confucius philosophy that commenter ltr adheres to: “Do as I say, not as I do”.

      And this will tell you a lot (not all, but a lot) about mainland Chinese culture: morality and ethics OF CONVENIENCE

      1. pgl

        ‘One of three cases announced Monday concerns a local branch of the Chinese Ministry of Public Security that had operated inside an office building in Manhattan’s Chinatown neighborhood before closing last fall amid an FBI investigation. The two men who were arrested were acting under the direction and control of a Chinese government official and deleted communication with that official from their phones after learning of the FBI’s probe in an apparent effort to obstruct the inquiry, according to the Justice Department.’

        This was all over the local news. Yea – it even shook that most cynical of New Yorkers.

      2. JohnH

        The Chinese have figured out how the US exerts control without appearing authoritarian: “cognitive war” AKA content moderation and disinformation AKA propaganda.

        The Chinese are taking note: “As the control and influence of civilian hi-tech companies has become more prominent, the differences in their ideas and interests and those of the state have become more explicit,” the study said.

        “To respond to their challenge to traditional state power, stronger supervision should be implemented. With risk awareness and bottom-line thinking, effective measures should be taken to prevent the risks civilian hi-tech companies might bring in politics, economy, culture, communications networks and military security.”

        Matt Taibbi knows from personal experience all about this:

        For exposing “content moderation” at Twitter, the IRS sent an agent to Taibbi’s house, and now he’s threatened with prison time.

        1. pgl

          Gee – Jonny boy is hoping Xi does to Taiwanese ladies what Putin has done to Ukrainian women. AND little Jonny boy has joined forces with Jim Jordan. He is that kind of guy!

  1. ltr

    I am struck by the level of debt among the G7 countries, which would have to limit domestic investment spending just when such spending seems especially necessary:,132,134,136,158,112,111,&s=GGXWDG_NGDP,&sy=2007&ey=2022&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1

    April, 2023

    Government gross debt as percent of GDP for Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom and United States, 2007-2022


    Canada ( 107)
    France ( 111)
    Germany ( 67)
    Italy ( 145)

    Japan ( 261)
    United Kingdom ( 103)
    United States ( 122)

      1. pgl

        “The macro leverage ratio – or total debt as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) – rose to 273.2 per cent as of the end of 2022 from 262.8 per cent a year earlier”

        What is this ratio for the US?

      2. pgl

        A bit dated but it lays out the details in this ratio:

        In Q2 2020, China’s real-economy leverage ratio increased by 7.1 percentage points to reach 266.4%, up from 259.3% at the end of Q1. Sector-wise, the household leverage ratio rose by 2.0 percentage points, up from 57.7% to reach 59.7% at the end of Q1; the non-financial corporations’ (NFCs) leverage ratio increased by 3.3 percentage points, up from 161.1% to reach 164.4% at the end of Q1; the government leverage ratio rose 1.8 percentage points, up from 40.5% to reach 42.3% at the end of Q1. Meanwhile, the M2/GDP ratio rose by 3.8 percentage points, up from 212.5% to reach 216.3% at the end of Q1; aggregate financing to the real economy/GDP ratio increased by 7.6 percentage points, up from 267.8% to reach 275.4% at the end of Q1.

      3. pgl

        If I did this right – the US macro leverage ratio is just over 263%. Odd that our supposed capitalist nation has more government debt but less corporate debt relative to GDP as compared to socialist China.

      4. pgl

        This leverage discussion got me interested in how this has evolved over time:
        Nonfinancial Corporate Business; Debt as a Percentage of the Market Value of Corporate Equities, Level (NCBCMDPMVCE)

        Before the Ford recession, debt/equity hovered around 50% but it spiked to almost 100% during that recession and during the Reagan recession. This ratio went up during the pandemic but of late has ben hovering around 25%.

      1. pgl

        Advocating what? You as usual forgot to say. That we might have some global competition is a good thing. But little Jonny boy has to get his rocks off trying to claim someone else finds this to be bad news. Hey little Jonny – find another hobby as you failed at this one a long time ago.

      2. ltr

        April 15, 2023

        China’s NEV sales grow in March

        BEIJING — Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China surged in March, helping the country’s automotive market to accelerate its green transition, data from an industry association has shown.

        Last month, the retail sales of NEVs in China expanded 21.9 percent year on year to 543,000 units, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).

        During the first quarter, the retail sales of NEVs jumped 22.4 percent year on year to 1.31 million units.

        China-made NEVs remained popular in overseas markets. China’s leading NEV manufacturer BYD saw its exports reach 13,312 units in March, while Tesla China exported 12,206 units, the CPCA said….

    1. JohnH

      In even more news, Dean Baker notes that “ China is bigger, get over it… As a practical matter, it doesn’t matter whether we like China or not. It is here and it is not about to go away. We will need to find ways to deal with China that do not lead to military conflict.

      Ideally, we would find areas where we could cooperate, for example sharing technology to address climate change and dealing with pandemics and other health threats. But, if anyone wants to push the New Cold War route, they should at least be aware of the numbers. This would not be your grandfather’s Cold War.”

      Tough stuff for the neocons and liberal interventionists here and in DC to digest…

      1. ltr

        April 20, 2023

        China’s FDI inflow records stable growth in Q1

        BEIJING — Foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Chinese mainland registered steady growth in the first three months of the year, indicating the world’s second-largest economy remained a popular destination for global investors.

        The FDI inflow, in actual use, expanded 4.9 percent year on year to 408.45 billion yuan (about 59.2 billion U.S. dollars) in the January-March period, the Ministry of Commerce said Thursday.

        More than 10,000 new foreign-invested companies were established in this period, a 25.5-percent increase year on year.

        In terms of sector-wise figures, FDI in the high-tech industries increased by 18 percent from the same period a year ago, according to the ministry.

        Specifically, the electronic and telecom equipment manufacturing sector saw FDI surge by 55.7 percent.

        FDI in services related to research and development (R&D) and design expanded by 24.6 percent, while that in pharmaceutics rose by 20.2 percent.

        There has been continued improvement in terms of the quality and structure of FDI in China, said ministry spokesperson Shu Jueting. She attributed the improvement to the establishment of foreign-funded R&D centers, the efforts to attract investment in manufacturing, and the country’s new industry catalog to encourage foreign investment.

        During the January-March period, investment from France and Germany surged by 635.5 percent and 60.8 percent year on year, respectively. FDI from the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, Switzerland and the Republic of Korea also recorded stellar growth.

        FDI from countries along the Belt and Road saw a 27.8-percent increase during these months, according to the ministry….

  2. pgl

    Can we remember Krispy Kreme Christie was responsible for BridgeGate? Can we remember Christie worked for Trump?

    “He cannot win a general election nor should he. I think he’s disqualified himself as a potential president. He’s said it’s ok to suspend the Constitution. I think Donald’s confused. The oath for president says ‘preserve, protect, and defend’ not ‘preserve, protect, and suspend,” Christie added when asked about current Republican support for Trump.

    Yes Trump is a traitor who should never be allowed anywhere near the White House. But Christie is also a dishonest corrupt POS so maybe the loud mouth chub tub from New Jersey should just shut up.

  3. Karen James

    The problem with that graph is, it’s already dead. We should be in a economic downturn. We aren’t.

    The Fed raising rates against the banks wishes is causing flight to the long end of the curve and increased leverage. We see this a bit in the mid 90’s. But this example really has blown yield curve signals into irrelevancy. Ala 1951 and 1966.

    1. Macroduck

      You are pretending to knowledge you cannot have. If, a year or two from now, we have avoided recession, we’ll know that the yield curve was a poor guide. We don’t know that now.


        You don’t have a clue. Official data has been a mess since covid. I am pretty suspicious of most data(I have been throwing out jobless claims data again this year as the shadow still lurks for example). This spread term is a now recession signal. If there isn’t one by summer, it’s dead.Not in a year or two.


      I agree. Term spreads are less useful when banks/Fed are against one another. Something this board doesn’t get.

    1. Moses Herzog

      I guess I’m gonna pass on this set-up lob for the smash shot into Kopits’ nose. Tempting. Who needs Bud Abbott when you’ve got Kopits??

        1. Moses Herzog

          @ BlueStatesResidentKopits
          It’s funny, I often thought the exact same thing reading your comments on this blog.

          Any thoughts on death certificates in Ukraine?? Since you enjoy undercounting brown people’s deaths so much, I was curious if you wanted to try your hand at Ukraine.

          1. Moses Herzog

            Radio silence. See this shows clearly Kopits has enough self-awareness to know he is a halfwit. There’s no interview to be had on FOX news for downplaying and intentionally undercounting Ukrainian deaths, only undercounting swarthy non-white looking people’s deaths gets Kopits that 10 minutes on the 4:00am show on FOX, so he has no interest in claiming Ukrainian deaths are being “overcounted” by people who actually understand how to compile data and run the stats.

            This has been a long-running mistake by some people here on the blog, assuming that Kopits’ mistakes are done in a genuine good faith. He knows nearly everything he says is a lie. Lies aimed at telling illiterates what they want to hear. Kopits is a Paul Manafort, a Stephen Moore, a Mike Lindell. a Huckabee. Kopits is not a Lennie Small. He just pretend acts like a Lennie Small.

    2. CoRev

      Steven, as Menzie said: “Anxiety provoking graphs…” Now if we can only see them admit that their preferred policies being slavishly implemented by Biden which has resulted in Biden’s INFLATION and the likely Biden RECESSION.

      The failed logic and denial associated with the liberal mind is an amazement.

      1. Noneconomist

        As Lincoln might have said “The fool believes he can fool the people who have no doubt he’s a fool.”

      2. pgl

        You must be desperate to find someone who likes you. First little boy JohnH and now the world’s worst consultant. Poor little lonely CoRev.

  4. joseph

    The question is that if a recession is already baked in the cake, what conceivable excuse could the Fed have for raising rates even higher?

  5. Vasja

    Initially, I was skeptical of the model’s accuracy because today’s spread inversion appears to be driven by an unusually high inflation rate that has not been seen in a long time. The tightening of interest rates is more due to supply-driven inflation rather than demand-driven inflation (overheating economy). I was concerned that the model had not encountered this driver of tightening before.

    However, I had a look at past inflation rates and spreads dating back to 1985. The situation in 1990 is somewhat similar. Inflation rates were similarly high, unemployment was at historic lows, the US was experiencing one of its longest expansions on record, inflation was driven by a supply shock (oil) and European growth was weak. The FED tightened its monetary policy to reduce inflation, and as a result, the US experienced a mild recession lasting only eight months.

    While the current situation is not identical to the past, there are some similarities. We can hope that, if a recession is indeed looming, it will be a mild one.

  6. Ivan

    Whenever I see data that parameter A correlates with parameter B I want a rational explanation of how parameter A could be the cause of parameter B changing, and how parameter B could be the cause of parameter A changing. Mechanisms please. Then I want a list of items that may be able to brake such causative interactions between the two parameters; to get an outline of “this time it’s different” situations. Only then do we have a fair chance of predicting the future based on the past.

    1. Macroduck

      A leading indicator needn’t rely on causality. That’s one of the differences between merely predictive models and explanatory models.

      In the case of the yield curve, high long end rates when short end rates are low may be the result of expectations of an eventual rise in inflation shortend rates, or both. That is consistent with a healthy economy which is not generating excess inflation now, but may in the future. When short end yields are high, long end yields low, that is usually due to the central bank trying to slow the economy (so there is a bit of causality) and the expectation that when the economy slows (or inflation falls or the currency strengthens), the central bank ill lower rates.

      So while there is a bit of causality in the mix, expectations are the big element in the yield curve’s predictive power.

      I’m not sure it’s still the case, but some decades back, sardine migration was a pretty good predictor of El Nino/La Nina fluctuations. Sardines didn’t cause the fluctuations. They just knew before we did.

      With expectations as the predictive element, the median (money-weighted) expectation has to be correct in order for the prediction to be correct. I’ve thought for some time that low long-end rates may not necessarily be a reflection of inflation or short-end-rate expectations, because of the very low term premium at the long end:

      That’s just a suspicion. The cock-sure declarations that the curve is wrong we get from some commenters is more ego than analysis.

  7. pgl

    Putin is not only committing war crimes against Ukrainians but he is also abusing AIDS to recruit troops:

    About a fifth of recruits sent to fight in Ukraine from Russian prisons are HIV positive, according to estimates by Ukrainian authorities, with several captured Russian soldiers telling The New York Times they were promised life-saving anti-viral medications if they agreed to fight. One detainee told The Times that he took the offer to fight in Ukraine because the Russian prison system deprived him of supplies of effective medications that he needed to survive.

    Anyone leader who does this to his own citizens should burn in hell. Of course, JohnH has not said a critical word about either the war crimes or the abuse of Russian soldiers by this war criminal.

  8. baffling

    Fox News owes three quarters of a billion dollars because it lied to support trump

    Lindell is forced to pay out $5 million because of his promotion of election fraud

    and there is still the $2+ billion dollar lawsuit hanging over faux news for defamation against smartmatic over voter fraud.

    it is getting EXPENSIVE to be a trump lackey these days!

  9. ltr

    April 21, 2023

    Wonking out: Is the American economy awesome?
    High G.D.P. is great, but a vacation might be nice, too.
    By Paul Krugman

    Readers of a certain age may recall that 30 years ago there was a widespread sense that America’s days as an economic great power were numbered. The sense of decline was captured by two best-selling books, both published in 1992: Michael Crichton’s novel “Rising Sun,” which envisaged a future dominated by Japan, and Lester Thurow’s “Head to Head,” portraying a struggle for supremacy among the United States, Japan and Europe, which America was likely to lose.

    Obviously things didn’t turn out that way. Nowadays, America does face a real geopolitical challenge from China, which has emerged as a bona fide economic superpower. But the U.S. economy has left other wealthy nations in the dust. Here’s growth in real gross domestic product from 1990 to 2022:

    America has been pulling ahead.

    The Economist recently emphasized this divergence with a cover story * titled “America’s Astonishing Economic Record,” which was the jumping-off point for a column ** by my colleague David Brooks. And the U.S. economy has certainly defied those dire predictions from three decades back.

    Yet it’s important to understand a few qualifications to that record. In some ways America’s economic achievements have been less impressive than they seem. And American society isn’t doing well at all….



    1. pgl

      Thanks for this. It is funny since JohnH keeps trying to trash Krugman. But see his snide comments about how the rest of us never figured out that China can compete on the world stage. This from the troll who used to whine that we allowed free trade with China. Two lessons learned:

      (1) JohnH has very malleable opinions

      (2) His attempt to smear others always relies on misrepresentation

  10. ltr,532,546,111,&s=PPPGDP,PPPSH,&sy=1980&ey=2022&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1,&s=PPPGDP,PPPSH,&sy=1980&ey=2022&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1

    October 15, 2022

    Gross Domestic Product and Share of World Total based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) for China, European Union & United States, 1980-2022


    China   ( 2.3)
    European Union   ( 25.9)
    United States   ( 21.3)


    China   ( 3.3)
    European Union   ( 24.5)
    United States   ( 22.2)


    China   ( 4.0)
    European Union   ( 23.5)
    United States   ( 21.6)


    China   ( 6.2)
    European Union   ( 21.2)
    United States   ( 19.8)


    China   ( 7.6)
    European Union   ( 20.2)
    United States   ( 20.3)


    China   ( 10.0)
    European Union   ( 18.4)
    United States   ( 19.1)


    China   ( 14.1)
    European Union   ( 16.2)
    United States   ( 16.7)


    China   ( 16.5)
    European Union   ( 15.2)
    United States   ( 16.3)


    China   ( 18.5)
    European Union   ( 14.9)
    United States   ( 15.7)


    China   ( 18.9)
    European Union   ( 14.9)
    United States   ( 15.5)

  11. Erik Poole

    “Interestingly, the probability of being in a recession as of now (April 2023) is 19% using the 10yr-2yr spread, but only 2% using the 10yr-3mo spread.” -M

    It will be interesting to compare that outcome with where the NBER eventually decides the impending recession starts. Observe a number of coincident variables indicating at least an economic slowdown, if not an outright recession.

    Otherwise, these models appear to be forecasting recession for H2 2023, and early 2024.

    Anxiety provoking? A territorial charge by a large boar Grizzly bear is anxiety provoking. Wildfires carried by winds in excess of 70 km/h are anxiety provoking. People who smoke meth outdoors on the edge of the village when it is bone dry and the temperatures are near 40C — that is anxiety provoking.

  12. Macroduck


    In answer to your earlier question, from the March FOMC minutes:

    Staff Economic Outlook

    For some time, the forecast for the U.S. economy prepared by the staff had featured subdued real GDP growth for this year and some softening in the labor market. Given their assessment of the potential economic effects of the recent banking-sector developments, the staff’s projection at the time of the March meeting included a mild recession starting later this year, with a recovery over the subsequent two years.

    Ruh, roh!

    1. Moses Herzog

      Well, fair enough, you got me, it’s in the textual remarks. I can only say the actions with FFR moves up, the behavior doesn’t match the rhetoric, and even could be said to be two-faced. i.e. I’m kinda getting tired of the Fed giving “shotgun” opinions to the public that cover the entire gambit of possibilities, so they can later say they foresaw whatever occurs was going to happen. If the Fed raises rates again, they are the ones who caused a recession. PERIOD. FULL STOP/

      1. Macroduck

        Yeah…and they know it.

        Menzie pointed out on March 30 that the FOMC’s own median GDP growth estimate, combined with the Atlanta Fed’s GDONow tally, implied no net GDP growth for the final three quarters of the year:

        “Taking the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast as of March 24 implies essentially zero net growth in Q2-Q4. Modal response for beginning of a recession (as determined by NBER) is 2023Q3 or 2023Q4.”

        So not only staff, but policy makers see recession as likely. We are now in the pre-meeting black-out period, and every FOMC member who is on record with a policy preference has expressed the intention to raise rates at the May meeting.

        1. Moses Herzog

          I don’t disagree with anything you just stated~~but here is the part, from a “Fed Logic” standpoint, that pretty much makes me want to climb the damned walls!!!!~~ “and every FOMC member who is on record with a policy preference has expressed the intention to raise rates at the May meeting.” (For the record, Austan Goolsbee is against raising the FFR in May, but Goolsbee’s stance is a tangential item to our discussion)

          That Fed stance on the May move is the height of asinine. It’s like telling someone you could die from high blood sugar and then asking them to pass over to you the two dozen powdered donuts to eat as a bedtime snack. Anyone who sees any logic in that, should forfeit their brain over to the Creator for gross misuse of a cerebrum.

  13. pgl

    Alito is quite the jerk:

    A Supreme Court ruling on Friday ensured the abortion pill mifepristone can still be purchased and used in the US, freezing a lower court ruling that would’ve effectively banned access to the pill. Two justices, Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, publicly dissented, with the latter writing an opinion in which he called out three female justices by name — including fellow conservative justice Amy Coney Barrett — in an apparent act of judiciary “theater,” Scott Lemieux, a professor of political science at the University of Washington and an expert on the Supreme Court and constitutional law, told Insider.

    1. Moses Herzog

      Sounds like Alito got a little boo-boo on his ego. Poor guy. Maybe Kagan can sing him some lullabies before bedtime so he doesn’t lose any sleep.

  14. pgl

    I do not blame the Belgians as Miller High Life sucks as a beer. Give me a good old Sam Adams:

    BRUSSELS (AP) — The guardians of Champagne will let no one take the name of the bubbly beverage in vain, not even a U.S. beer behemoth. For years, Miller High Life has used the “Champagne of Beers” slogan. This week, that appropriation became impossible to swallow. At the request of the trade body defending the interests of houses and growers of the northeastern French sparkling wine, Belgian customs crushed more than 2,000 cans of Miller High Life advertised as such.
    The Comité Champagne asked for the destruction of a shipment of 2,352 cans on the grounds that the century-old motto used by the American brewery infringes the protected designation of origin “Champagne.”

    1. Moses Herzog

      I don’t mind Miller High Life as a beer. I will happily drink it, and as I have stated here before I drink a large can about once every 10 days. I like to support union labor. But it is not a “smooth” tasting beer and tends to be on the bitter side. There’s no debating that. I don’t think there’s any risk of anyone mistaking Miller High Life as champagne, but if it makes the French happy to waste product, I can’t stop them.

      French are interesting peoples. Very cultured:

  15. pgl

    What Alito wrote was worse than I originally thought:

    The Biden Administration has “not dispelled legitimate doubts” it would follow an “unfavorable ruling” to restrict mifepristone, Alito wrote in his dissenting opinion Friday. Former U.S. attorney Joyce White Vance—an Obama appointee—called Alito’s criticism of the Biden Administration “unwarranted and completely unbefitting a Supreme Court justice.” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) referred to Alito’s opinion as a “tantrum” and suggested the Supreme Court has “devolved into a highly politicized entity that is rapidly delegitimizing.” Former Minnesota Sen. Al Franken (D) jokingly suggested Supreme Court justices are “much better qualified to judge the safety and efficacy” of mifepristone than the Food and Drug Administration.

  16. pgl

    I always like Bob Costas:

    Hall of Fame sports announcer Bob Costas had a lot to say about former President Donald Trump during his latest appearance on “CNN Primetime.” Costas called out Fox News’ willingness to always side with Trump during and after his four-year stint in the White House. While Costas believes Fox News has a few credible journalists, he can’t get over certain politician’s “spineless” behavior on the network. “This is not a question of being conservative or being Republican. This is lunacy, they’ve descended into madness,” Costas said. “People, whose only objective is their next appearance on Fox News, hold congressional seats and have sway within the party. They all live in fear of Trump. It’s a cult. It’s not a principle, it’s not a philosophy, it’s no longer a party so much as it is a cult.”

    Of course the only objective of our trolls Princeton Steve and JohnH is their next appearance on Fox News!

  17. ltr,134,534,158,111,&s=GGXWDG_NGDP,&sy=2001&ey=2022&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1

    October, 2022

    Government gross debt as percent of GDP for China, Germany, India, Japan and United States, 2007-2022


    China ( 29)
    Germany ( 64)
    India ( 74)
    Japan ( 173)
    United States ( 65)


    China ( 27)
    Germany ( 66)
    India ( 73)
    Japan ( 181)
    United States ( 73)


    China ( 35)
    Germany ( 73)
    India ( 72)
    Japan ( 199)
    United States ( 87)


    China ( 34)
    Germany ( 82)
    India ( 66)
    Japan ( 206)
    United States ( 95)


    China ( 34)
    Germany ( 79)
    India ( 69)
    Japan ( 219)
    United States ( 100)


    China ( 34)
    Germany ( 81)
    India ( 68)
    Japan ( 226)
    United States ( 103)


    China ( 37)
    Germany ( 78)
    India ( 68)
    Japan ( 230)
    United States ( 105)


    China ( 40)
    Germany ( 75)
    India ( 67)
    Japan ( 234)
    United States ( 105)


    China ( 41)
    Germany ( 72)
    India ( 69)
    Japan ( 228)
    United States ( 105)


    China ( 48)
    Germany ( 69)
    India ( 69)
    Japan ( 233)
    United States ( 107)


    China ( 52)
    Germany ( 65)
    India ( 70)
    Japan ( 231)
    United States ( 106)


    China ( 54)
    Germany ( 61)
    India ( 70)
    Japan ( 232)
    United States ( 107)


    China ( 57)
    Germany ( 59)
    India ( 75)
    Japan ( 236)
    United States ( 109)


    China ( 68)
    Germany ( 68)
    India ( 89)
    Japan ( 259)
    United States ( 135)


    China ( 71)
    Germany ( 70)
    India ( 84)
    Japan ( 262)
    United States ( 128)


    China ( 77)
    Germany ( 71)
    India ( 83)
    Japan ( 264)
    United States ( 122)

  18. ltr

    These Chinese Gestapo…
    Apparently Xi Jinping believes in the same Confucius philosophy… “Do as I say, not as I do”…
    And this will tell you a lot (not all, but a lot) about mainland Chinese culture: morality and ethics OF CONVENIENCE…

    These Chinese Gestapo…
    Apparently Xi Jinping believes in the same Confucius philosophy… “Do as I say, not as I do”…
    And this will tell you a lot (not all, but a lot) about mainland Chinese culture: morality and ethics OF CONVENIENCE…

    These Chinese Gestapo…
    Apparently Xi Jinping believes in the same Confucius philosophy… “Do as I say, not as I do”…
    And this will tell you a lot (not all, but a lot) about mainland Chinese culture: morality and ethics OF CONVENIENCE…

    [ Such is definitive racism. ]

    1. Macroduck

      Racism…like enslaving Uyghurs? Like attempting to erase Tibetan culture? Is there a more racist set of polices than those of the Xi regime?

    2. Moses Herzog

      @ ltr
      I’ll give you this much, you always manage to give me an ironic chuckle in my day. So I appreciate that. Only the muppet character Miss Piggy could match you in your thespian act of being phonily aggrieved. This is the part where I, as Kermie, tell you I’m sorry for sneezing in your presence??

  19. JohnH

    In other news, “ China’s 4th Industrial Revolution rattles US tech stocks… Tesla’s Chinese competitor BYD announced an $11,400 electrical vehicle, a challenge to Tesla’s lowest-cost offering at about $33,000.”

    Amory Lovins at the Rocky Mountain Institute has been advocating for electric vehicles at least 20 year sand predicting that they would be producted in China.

    pgl couldn’t understand this!

  20. ltr

    Confucius philosophy that commenter — adheres to…
    Confucius philosophy that commenter — adheres to…
    Confucius philosophy that commenter — adheres to…

    [ Racist bullying, over and over. Same person who repeatedly attacked Barkley Rosser. ]

    1. Moses Herzog

      Yes, Barkley was well known among his closest colleagues and those he jousted with (on multiple blogs BTW) online as a shrinking violet. I say a prayer every night before bed I just wasn’t too rough on him. The guilt is starting to effect me. Miller High Life no longer has those saccharine sweet notes for me it used to have before January of this year.

      What will I do to kill my Barkley guilt?? All suggestions can be put in the drop box down the hall labeled “Biffy the Slip-seater Needs Help”.

        1. Moses Herzog

          Two things: 1) I am sorry for the man’s death. I am. I think overall he was a good person, and contributed positively to the world around him. But I am not going to pretend I feel a hair, a scintilla, of guilt for anything I said to him prior to.

          2) Go back and count how many times he piggybacked on my comments, vs the reverse and/or, how many times I let him get the last word, even when wrong. It’s not even close Menzie. It’s not.

  21. JohnH

    pgl missed Krugman’s other recent column:

    “I’ve spent a lot of time over the years following debates over income and wealth inequality. Ever since inequality began rising in the 1980s, there’s been a sort of intellectual industry devoted to what one might call inequality denial, questioning the data showing a drastic rise in incomes and wealth at the top. Indeed, measuring things at the top can be technically tricky — the very rich are such a small group that they can be missed by random surveys, and their ability to engage in tax avoidance makes it hard to track them with tax data, too.

    But if you had any doubts about whether we’re living in an era of extreme wealth concentration, comparable to or even surpassing the Gilded Age, the superyacht boom should quell those doubts.”

    Inequality denial…hmmm…how often do workers’ stagnant real wages get noticed here? How many times does Corporate America’s dramatically rising margin get mentioned?

    1. pgl

      Oh I saw this. I guess you do not have the self awareness to realize that Krugman has written on this topic many times even though little Jonny boy keeps telling us he never writes on this topic. Yea – you do have to remind us over and over what a lying little idiot you really are.

    2. pgl

      I hear Putin has quite the superyacht. What’s the matter Jonny boy – has Putin not taken his pet poodle out on that superyacht?

      BTW – nice use of the graph on profit margins I pointed out to you (which is funny since you claim I never mention profit margins).

  22. ltr,132,134,136,158,112,111,&s=GGXWDG_NGDP,&sy=2007&ey=2022&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1

    April, 2023

    Government gross debt as percent of GDP for Canada, France, Germany,
    Italy, Japan, United Kingdom and United States, 2017-2022


    Canada ( 91)
    France ( 98)
    Germany ( 65)
    Italy ( 134)

    Japan ( 231)
    United Kingdom ( 86)
    United States ( 106)


    Canada ( 91)
    France ( 98)
    Germany ( 61)
    Italy ( 134)

    Japan ( 232)
    United Kingdom ( 85)
    United States ( 107)


    Canada ( 90)
    France ( 97)
    Germany ( 59)
    Italy ( 134)

    Japan ( 236)
    United Kingdom ( 84)
    United States ( 109)


    Canada ( 119)
    France ( 115)
    Germany ( 68)
    Italy ( 155)

    Japan ( 259)
    United Kingdom ( 106)
    United States ( 133)


    Canada ( 115)
    France ( 113)
    Germany ( 69)
    Italy ( 150)

    Japan ( 255)
    United Kingdom ( 108)
    United States ( 126)


    Canada ( 107)
    France ( 111)
    Germany ( 67)
    Italy ( 145)

    Japan ( 261)
    United Kingdom ( 103)
    United States ( 122)

  23. Macroduck

    There’s reportedly a legislative strategy being considered that would get McCarthy off the hook for the debt ceiling. Politico’s take is that in the case that the House is unable to pass a debt ceiling bill, “…the White House hopes that the House might at the very least swallow a Senate-passed bill to avoid default, if some Republicans are willing to use a discharge petition to get such a bill to the floor.”

    Technically, it’s an obvious solution, and McCarthy doesn’t need to have a hand in passing a debt ceiling bill, which he seems unable to do. However, this is a rather different story than was told by the same outlet back in January:

    ‘…some Republicans doubt McConnell could muster the nine votes needed to break a filibuster on a debt limit increase, even if he wanted to. On Monday, all McConnell would say was: “We won’t default.”’

    If McConnell couldn’t get nine of his caucus to vote for cloture on a debt ceiling bill in January, why is a Senate-passed bill an option now?

    It’s as if the Fed and House Republicans are in a race to see which can be first to kick the U.S. into recession.

  24. Erik Poole

    Harvey Campbell believes the yield curves are throwing a false positive signal and that the USA will not go into recession unless the Federal Reserve keeps on hiking fed fund rates.

    1. Moses Herzog

      That’s the thing I think I appreciate most about you “ltr”, your ability to roll with the punches, and you never stoop to melodrama or histrionics. Everyone here on the blog immediately sensed that inherent Chinese stoicism about you, straight from the beginning. You never get into the perennial victim thing.

  25. ltr

    Only the muppet character Miss Piggy could match you…
    Only the muppet character Miss Piggy could match you…
    Only the muppet character Miss Piggy could match you…

    [ Definitive horrid harassment. ]

  26. Erik Poole

    @Moses wrote: “Harvey Campbell or Campbell Harvey??”

    Thanks and apologies. I reversed his first and family name. Too bad I cannot go back and edit.

    1. Moses Herzog

      It is an odd name. Or the “ordering” is odd. Try living in a county where family names come before given names. Takes awhile to get used to. And I’m not going to get into the whole “four tones” thing.

  27. Moses Herzog

    *country. See, that’s what I get for running around correcting people. I’m like that annoying guy that pronounces library the nonstandard way.

  28. Erik Poole

    @Moses: If you ever run for political office, you will be remembered for forgetting the ‘r’ in country.

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