In my first published peer-reviewed article, Peter Navarro and I argued that both economic special interests and candidate ideology separately could explain Congressional voting farm subsidies (we also applied the framework to domestic content legislation for automobiles), following Kalt and Zupan (AER 1984). In the ongoing discussions of how many members of the Republican caucus would vote for the (yet to be released) debt ceiling bill, I wondered how one would test the separate effects.
In the 1984 paper, we built a logit index of votes on farm programs, and related them to the importance of ag production (as share of state personal income), food stamp reliance, PAC contributions, and an index of ideological orientation (the Americans for Democratic Action index). In his 1984 book, The Policy Game, Navarro extended this framework to trade protectionism and defense spending.
One concern that one could have is that the ideology index is not orthogonal to economic interests (especially as this is constructed based on votes on many issues). So what ideological proxy would one use for the coming debt ceiling vote? Here’s my view: Bitcoin holdings
My (completely unscientific) guess is that bitcoins are held by people that have a view that the current financial system needs to be, or will be, overturned in some disruptive event, given the generally poor risk-return tradeoff associated with cryptocurrencies. In addition the recent demonstration that cryptocurrencies are not hedges against risk events shows that, for holders of bitcoin, it’s the triumph of ideology over rational interest (except for those that need crypto to evade capital controls and/or financial regulation). Furthermore, holders of bitcoin will tend to be anti-governmental or libertarian in their views (as suggested by surveys).
The standard econometrics retort is that holding bitcoin (or say gold) is not exogenous to perceived economic events. That is, some people might expect a meltdown associated with a debt default, and so stock up on bitcoin. So what we would use, ideally, is bitcoin holdings say a year before the vote.
Don’t know if we can find out what individual representatives’ holdings of bitcoins as a share of total wealth are, but it’s an interesting research project.
The digging for the personal bitcoin holdings would be the difficult part. Naive people will say it can be found in public disclosure “requirements” but lawmakers break those (lie by omission) all the time, and except in the most severe severe cases, such as George Santos (and probably not even him), nothing ever happens and they get some piddly “censure” vote or mild slap of the wrist.
It is a very interesting train of thought. Would take a college age 20-something style energy (with some kind of inborn investigative journalism skills) to take on the task though. What’s that old saying?? “Nothing worth having is easy to get” ?? Might get wide attention if they could pull it off. Maybe a “team up” thing. One researcher digs for the personal bitcoin holdings data, another researcher crunches the numbers/correlations.
https://decrypt.co/102614/members-of-congress-traded-bitcoin-ethereum-coinbase-even-dogecoin-since-2020
https://fortune.com/crypto/2022/04/26/congress-members-cryptocurrency-market-regulation-market/
https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/01/17/congress-ftx-problem-1-in-3-members-got-cash-from-crypto-exchanges-bosses/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/senators-own-cryptocurrency-assets-as-they-shape-rules-for-industry-11640005202
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/15/some-lawmakers-and-their-families-are-betting-thousands-on-crypto.html
https://prospect.org/power/eight-congressmen-subverting-secs-crypto-investigation/
https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2023/03/cryptocurrency-industry-lobbying-and-political-contributions-skyrocketed-in-2022/
https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs//C00822775/summary/2022
https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2022/06/crypto-industry-executives-spend-millions-on-political-contributions-as-washington-weighs-industry-regulations/
Wow! Investigative reportrs, take note.
Hehe, “How to Be a Degenerate With Google & Too Much Free Time”
“You’re friends will be jealous” “Co-workers astounded” Sister says “Mother always loved you best” “Even Tom Selleck and people with reverse mortgages will think you’ve solved the riddle of Life”
All goofball jokes aside, OpenSecrets is a terrific website/resource though, would be a solid starting point.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/fox-news-host-mark-levin-mocked-for-north-korean-style-fawning-over-trump/ar-AA1bP5Dg?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=ae325e162f6346e38bd271557eb02c09&ei=17
Mark Levin interviews Trump and gets compared to the North Korean pink lady.
I just saw CoRev’s latest attempt to blame the reliance on wind power (among other things) for the 246 deaths in Texas and here is what this lying troll relies on for the latest “research”:
A Problem With Wind Power
Eric Rosenbloom — September 5, 2006
http://www.aweo.org/ProblemWithWind.pdf
Credit to Dr. Chinn for being the first to call CoRev out on this but just in case the rest of you missed CoRev’s latest little disgusting lie.
https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/california-electricity-data/2021-total-system-electric-generation
I offer this information since right wing liars that CoRev loves to emulate claim California is too green:
Fuel Type California In-State Generation (GWh)
Total Thermal and Non-Renewables 126,666 65.2%
Total Renewables 67,461 34.8%
Total System Energy 194,127 100.0%
It is true that Cali relies on renewables a lot more than Texas did. And of course Cali did not have 246 deaths during the winter of 2021. Texas did. What failed in Texas? Natural gas failed big time and Texas relied primarily on natural gas.
Of course you will not hear the truth from Sean Hannity or his minnie me CoRev.
you forgot to mention windmills do not work in Texas when it snows. Funny how they can in Antarctica!
And one wonders why they changed the ERCOT management?
Tell us little CoRev – oh yea Abbott realized he screwed up so he decided to pass the blame. Now if you really think Abbott was some sort of greenie – then you are dumber than a rock.
you mean the management team that was assigned by abbott to begin with? yes, that conservative republican management team was replaced. ERCOT is a republican creation to begin with, covid.
and by isolating their grid from the rest of the nation, they created the freeze blackout a couple of years ago because they could not access addition power from across the state border. but it was a republican decision to isolate the grid, to begin with.
Baffled & Ole Bark, bark at least someone recognizes when and corrects their errors. If only the liberal mind could do so.
It is an amazement
‘A little research, however, reveals that wind power does not in fact live up to the claims made by its advocates (see part I), that its impact on the environment and people’s lives is far from benign (see part II), and that with such a poor record and prospect the money spent on it could be much more effectively directed (see part III)’
The key word here is “little”. Just check out his reference page – relying on the NYC tabloids would be less of a joke. This paper would not cut it as a senior thesis for the worst high school in America.
This is CoRev’s idea of recent evidence on the role of wind power? Yea – CoRev is the King of the Klowns.
And BTW – Texas relied on natural gas and not wind power during the winter of 2021. So blame those 246 deaths on the failures of natural gas unless one is a sniveling little liar like CoRev!
Ole bark, bark has completely gone over the edge by citing Part I II and III of What?
He also says others claim California is too green: while showing this data: Total Thermal and Non-Renewables 126,666 65.2%
What he ignores is that CA’s electricity rates are some of the highest in the country, and his data shows it is still failing to be too green. Mean while in the real world electricity prices are rising even in these lowering cost Wind and Solar locales, TX, CA Germany, Sweden, the UK, Australia etc AND RELIABILITY of their grids is diminishing. Prove it is NOT due to including lowering cost Wind and Solar to their grids.
All this wind mill chasing is to reduce Climate Change. Even though they can not define Climate nor answer the question how much will temperatures be lowered to these extreme unneeded actions.
The liberal mind is an amazement.
I see – it is all about the money. The lives of 246 people do not count. Got it little CoRev.
Isn’t this an economics blog?
Your liberal mind is an amazement.
CoRev
May 30, 2023 at 12:45 pm
Isn’t this an economics blog?
It is little CoRev which is why you need to get back to preK classes. Economics is way too advance for you.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/29/turkish-lira-plunges-as-erdogan-claims-mandate-to-continue-divisive-rule
Turkish lira plunges as Erdoğan claims mandate to continue divisive rule
Re-elected president commits to economic unorthodoxy and culture wars suggesting further trouble ahead
When Recep Tayyip Erdoğan came to power in 2014, it took only 2 Turkish lira to buy one US dollar. Now it takes 20 liras to buy a dollar. This dude is more of a disaster than even Trump was.
The Fed assumes 2.6% inflation in 2024 (FOMC Summary of Economic Projections, March edition), which amounts to a roughly 0.1% drag on real GDP, given the share of non-military discretionary spending in GDP. A cap on nominal spending thus amounts to a 0.1% drag on real growth (assuming I have my math right). The Fed projects 1.2% growth in real GDP in 2024, so the cap on nominal spending looks to cut that growth estimate to.1.1%
The Fed was already willing to tolerate 1.2% growth, though the SEP does anticipate 75 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2024. There isn’t much reason to expect the debt ceiling to change any of this. All of these estimates are in a cocked hat, anyway.
By the way, the Hutchins Center estimated that federal spending would have been a drag on growth in every quarter of 2024 before the debt ceiling deal:
https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/hutchins-center-fiscal-impact-measure/
Not to beat a dead horse, but since all the cuts are to non-military discretionary spending, all the impact is on human welfare. There is something like a 2.6% cut in real spending on programs that help people, mostly less fortunate ones, using the SEP inflation estimate. More homeless people, for starters.
‘The Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure shows how much local, state, and federal tax and spending policy adds to or subtracts from overall economic growth, and provides a near-term forecast of fiscal policies’ effects on economic activity.’
That chart shows that the fiscal impact was around negative 3.5% of GDP in 2021. Now Princeton Steve when he was saying we were in a RECESSION claimed it was negative 7% of GDP.
Of course little Stevie never got that the actual change in the deficit was not the same thing as fiscal impact. We asked little Stevie to read that 1954 AER paper by E. Cary Brown but I guess little Stevie was too busy with his own bloviating to do so.
The Real Reason Your Groceries Are Getting So Expensive
https://dnyuz.com/2023/05/29/the-real-reason-your-groceries-are-getting-so-expensive/
It seems Wal-Mart may claim it is all about low prices but this oped notes how Wal-Mart is squeezing out the competition.
A follow-up to that NYTimes oped on the grocery sector:
Prepared Testimony and Statement for the Record of David Smith, President & CEO, Associated Wholesale Grocers
On Behalf of the National Grocers Association Hearing on “Beefing up Competition: Examining America’s Food Supply Chain”
Before the Senate Judiciary Committee July 28, 2021
https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Smith%20-%20Testimony.pdf
Lots of interesting information including:
Our 3,100 stores, which comprise $22 billion in sales for the industry, can look like peanuts compared to the dominant retailers. Walmart derives almost $300B of their $514B in retail sales from grocery. Kroger brings in $121 billion. We estimate Amazon, which doesn’t break out its grocery sales, is at approximately $70 billion. Finally, Alberton’s brings in $61 billion and AholdDelhaize brings in $44 billion. That’s almost $600 billion—or 60% of the entire industry’s sales—in the top 5 retailers.
UYER POWER AND THE ‘WATERBED EFFECT’
Roman Inderst and Tommaso M. Valletti
The Journal of Industrial Economics
Vol. 59, No. 1 (March 2011), pp. 1-20
https://www.jstor.org/stable/41289440
CoRev in his desperate attempts to blame wind power for the 246 deaths in Texas during its harsh 2021 winter tried to tell us that ERCOT was some climate change left wing organization that Abbott decided to dismantle. Huh!
https://www.ksat.com/news/defenders/2021/02/24/political-contributions-link-ercot-board-to-abbott-and-the-state-committee-now-investigating-the-troubled-entity/
Political contributions link ERCOT board to Abbott and the state committee now investigating the troubled entity
Members of current ERCOT board have given Abbott more than $18,000 since 2009
AUSTIN – Since a deadly winter storm hit Texas earlier this month Governor Greg Abbott has repeatedly heaped criticism on ERCOT, the operator of the state’s electric grid, claiming the entity was woefully unprepared for the dangerous weather that has killed a still-untold number of people.
But an analysis of state campaign finance records by the KSAT 12 Defenders shows three current members of ERCOT’s board have contributed thousands to Abbott’s campaigns, with some of the funds dating back to his days as Texas Attorney General. Lori Cobos and DeAnn Walker, two Abbott appointees who sit on ERCOT’s board due to their respective positions with the state, are listed among the governor’s lengthy list of political donors. Cobos was appointed chief executive and public counsel of the Office of Public Utility Counsel (OPUC) by Abbott in March 2019, three months after donating $1,050 to Abbott’s campaign, state contribution records show. Cobos’ salary is $143,000. Walker, the chair of the Public Utility Commission of Texas and a former senior policy advisor to Abbott, contributed $7,620 to Texans for Greg Abbott from 2009 to 2015, state campaign records show. In 2017, Abbott appointed her to lead the PUC, where she makes a $200,000 salary. Board member Mark Carpenter, a senior vice president with Dallas-based Oncor Electric Delivery, has contributed $10,000 to Texans for Greg Abbott, Abbott’s campaign war chest, since October 2018. He was not appointed by Abbott and did not return a call for comment. Carpenter, Cobos and Walker are three of 10 remaining ERCOT board members after the five others — all of whom live out of state — resigned this week.
everything in texas is dictated by conservative republicans. the ercot failure was a direct result of free market policies imposed by texas republicans on the energy utility field. natural gas froze, unexpectedly. nuclear plant froze, unexpectedly. these create immediate shutdowns of power, that the grid was unable to handle. luckily the grid operator shut down before the system blew up from these unexpected shutdowns. it is important to note, the problem is not with a shutdown-rolling blackouts are quite manageable. the problem is with unexpected shutdowns. this is what creates severe imbalances in the grid, causing electrons to flow uncontrolled back through electric distribution equipment and causing essentially explosions that take months to repair. this is the distinction that is overlooked in the portrayal of the blackout. renewable sources were not expected to be operational and available during the storm-this was anticipated. at worst, these would have simply created rolling blackouts over the period of a few hours. it was the unexpected and abrupt loss of entire generation plants (natural gas and nuclear) that created the greatest stress on the grid. this created shutdowns that were more extreme than simple rolling blackouts. texas was minutes away from losing its entire power infrastructure for months. all under the careful watch of texas republicans, over decades. can’t blame the texas failure on liberal conspiracy theories, that’s for sure.
Oh wait – CoRev has been telling us ERCOT was appointed by California’s governor.
Why a predictable cold snap crippled the Texas power grid
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-weather-texas-power-insight-idUSKBN2AL00N
An honest account of the failures of Abbott and ERCOT that led to too many deaths in Feb. 2021. The kind of honesty one never gets from the many lies of little CoRev.
Just a hint about lying, don’t use names: “An honest account of the failures of Abbott and ERCOT…” when neither Abbott’s name nor title ever appears in the article.
The lying liberal mind is an amazement.
“neither Abbott’s name nor title ever appears in the article.”
Ignoring the fact as I noted that Abbott took money from the ERCOT people he put on the board. Yea – Abbott is as corrupt as Trump which is why little CoRev loves the governor.
Ole Bark, bark that reference to must be in Pat I or II or III of your fictitious source. No reference, no truth.
The lying liberal mind is an amazement.
Baffling already got this right. OK, you have to lie about this as you are Abbott’s BOY.
baffling
May 31, 2023 at 7:17 am
everything in texas is dictated by conservative republicans. the ercot failure was a direct result of free market policies imposed by texas republicans on the energy utility field. natural gas froze, unexpectedly. nuclear plant froze, unexpectedly. these create immediate shutdowns of power, that the grid was unable to handle. luckily the grid operator shut down before the system blew up from these unexpected shutdowns. it is important to note, the problem is not with a shutdown-rolling blackouts are quite manageable. the problem is with unexpected shutdowns. this is what creates severe imbalances in the grid, causing electrons to flow uncontrolled back through electric distribution equipment and causing essentially explosions that take months to repair. this is the distinction that is overlooked in the portrayal of the blackout. renewable sources were not expected to be operational and available during the storm-this was anticipated. at worst, these would have simply created rolling blackouts over the period of a few hours. it was the unexpected and abrupt loss of entire generation plants (natural gas and nuclear) that created the greatest stress on the grid. this created shutdowns that were more extreme than simple rolling blackouts. texas was minutes away from losing its entire power infrastructure for months. all under the careful watch of texas republicans, over decades. can’t blame the texas failure on liberal conspiracy theories, that’s for sure.