30 thoughts on “Estimates of the X-Date”

  2. Macroduck

    The first figure, from the Bipartisan Policy Center, shows a bump in mid-June and another at the end of June. Those correspond to June 15th quarterly tax payments and new opportunities to borrow from federal retirement funds, respectively. Remember that the April 15 boost to Treasury holdings was on the low end of expectations. Recall also New Deal Democrat’s reporting on weak state tax and FICA payments. There is reason to worry that neither June 15 nor June 30 will provide Treasury much breathing room. That could mean the X date is in June, or that the X date is simply nearer than we’d like. Those dates really matter, even if they aren’t the X date.

    1. Moses Herzog

      Panic is rarely if ever a good thing, and Republicans are creating a context for panic before the “X date”, which sort of “moves up” the X date. Yellen is super sharp and probably created some “margins of safety” there in moves she’s made in Treasury “behind the scenes”. I sure as hell feel safer with her there, rather than Sensitive Stevie Mnuchin. There’s some peace of mind knowing she is there during a critical moment. But she’s not an Angel who can perform miracles. She is just a super super intelligent, hyper-educated, and kindly Jewish lady. That’s 1/2 step down from miracle performing Angel on the organizational pyramid.

  3. Anonymous

    with cd rates u, some required minimum distribution will collect interest to near mandatory date for the 2023 end.

    while some trumps t may delay r d to be mean

  4. Moses Herzog

    OK, short Econbrowser reader survey. Should I set up my ASUS notepad computer’s video cam to video tape funnels going by the house or assume God is going to go on continuing being nicer to me than I deserve??
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

    Remember, before answering, I am very lazy, and dusting off (literally) the ASUS notepad, re-charging the batteries, remembering which of my 20 or so passwords i may have used for the ASUS, is going to be a humongous annoyance for this extremely lazy person. Thanks for participating, in this non-scientific opinion survey. Also suggestions for tombstone epitaphs are welcome. I have thought of tons of these in the past, but the only one hitting me right now is “Here lies the eternal goofball”

      1. Moses Herzog

        Heh, pretty much. I didn’t get the video cam ready, but mostly the tornado watch was (happily) a fizzle out. I may try to get some video sometime. We’re certain to have at least one more solid tornado threat between now and mid-June. I do honestly believe “tornado alley” has “shifted” geographically more to the east USA (not the east region, but “more” easterly) towards Arkansas, Missouri, Louisiana.

  5. James

    Executive Branch can not both spend the money that Congress has ordered it to do in past budget and honor the U.S. debt as in 14th Amendment – Direct U.S Treasury to pay the debt and take away the constant fiscally irresponsible GOP hostage taking of our economy – https://washingtonmonthly.com/2023/05/08/ive-argued-for-years-that-the-president-must-pay-the-national-debt-even-if-congress-wont-raise-the-debt-ceiling/
    (BTW – for those interested in history – it is always the GOP that wants to trash our economy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995%E2%80%931996_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns)

  6. pgl

    I did not watch the Trump show on CNN last night but I hope the prosecutors did!

    https://www.salon.com/2023/05/11/he-is-confessing-on-live-tv-legal-experts-say-trumps-cnn-town-hall-could-badly-backfire-in/

    “He is confessing on live TV”: Legal experts say Trump’s CNN town hall could badly backfire in court
    “All three ongoing criminal cases got new evidence tonight against Trump,” attorney says

    Former President Donald Trump may have provided additional evidence in multiple investigations during his CNN town hall event on Wednesday, legal experts say. Trump repeatedly lied during the town hall that the election was “rigged,” that Georgia “owed” him votes, that he had the right to take classified documents to Mar-a-Lago and that he does not know E. Jean Carroll — the writer who was awarded $5 million a day earlier after it found Trump liable for sexual abuse and defamation. “All three ongoing criminal cases got new evidence tonight against Trump,” tweeted national security attorney Bradley Moss. “He is confessing on live television.”

    During one point, moderator Kaitlan Collins pressed Trump on whether he showed the classified documents found at Mar-a-Lago to anyone else. “Not really,” Trump replied. Collins questioned what Trump meant by that but he continued to steamroll through his answer. Former FBI agent Pete Strzok called the comment a “tacit admission of unauthorized disclosure of classified information.”

    ****

    I hear the people advising Biden on 2024 considered this the best campaign ad they could have produced.

  7. pgl

    There are two grocery stores near where I live. One is still charging over $5 a dozen for eggs so I never buy eggs from that one. I bought a dozen large eggs at the other one for only $3.29 yesterday. Yea – eggs are only a modest part of most people’s budgets but my favorite breakfast is now reasonably priced.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/crashing-egg-prices-signal-the-fed-is-winning-its-war-against-inflation/ar-AA1b2K5N

    US egg prices have plunged 32% from their January peak, suggesting the Fed is winning its inflation battle.
    The average cost of a dozen eggs is $3.27, down from $4.82 at the start of 2023.
    “These retail price declines should continue with wholesale egg prices crashing, now down over 80% from their January high,” Charlie Bilello said.

    1. Macroduck

      Wait…? You’re standing up for JOSH HAWLEY!!! You won’t stand up for for enslaved Uyhurs, disenfranchized Hong Kong Chinese, Taiwan’s right to self-determination, tha navigation right of non-Chinese nations in the South China Sea, but insultig Josh Hawley is over the line???!!!

      Good to know.

  9. pgl

    PPI inflation remains low:

    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
    PRODUCER PRICE INDEXES – APRIL 2023
    The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.2 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices fell 0.4 percent in March and were unchanged in February. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.3 percent for the 12 months ended in April.

    1. baffling

      this is bad for the world. food insecurity in china is not a good thing for anybody.

  11. Macroduck

    Off topic,more on China’s food insecurity –

    The official response to the rising risk of food insecurity in China includes imposing unsustainable demands on soil and forcing farmers to plant staple crops (tending toward monoculture) rather than more lucrative crops:

    https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/china-rice-crops-extreme-rainfall-food-security-3480596

    Thie choice to hold down agrarian incomes is classic response by regimes which fear unrest in urban centers, so advantage urban majoriies over agrarian minoriies.

    And, by the way, ltr’s constant copy/pasting of entire “glorious Chinese agriculture” propaganda pieces is evidence that Xi is worried about China’s food siuation. Orwellian rulers start saying “down is up” before “down” becomes a full-blown crisis.

    1. pgl

      For ltr’s benefit:

      Extreme rainfall has cut China’s rice yields by 8 per cent over the past two decades, according to a study led by Chinese researchers. The study, published in the peer-reviewed journal Nature Food on May 4, found that the impact of extreme rainfall on rice yields was comparable to that of extreme heat. The researchers predicted that by the end of this century, extreme rainfall could reduce rice yields by another 7.6 per cent in China, in addition to other climate change-induced impacts, such as global warming and rising carbon dioxide emissions. Jian Yiwei, lead author of the study and a PhD candidate at Peking University, said extreme events were projected to be more intense in the future, which would pose an increasing threat to agricultural productivity.

      I hope ltr realizes Jian Yiwei is a serious researcher.

  12. pgl

    Let’s ask ltr if she is happy with Hawley’s call to put 25% tariffs on goods imported from China.

        1. pgl

          ltr later said she opposed a new trade war with China. But wait Hawley is the one pushing a new trader war with China.

  13. ltr

    https://english.news.cn/20230511/4b259099f68f458fa2f73d367f23ae03/c.html

    May 11, 2023

    China’s consumer inflation remains mild in April

    BEIJING — China’s consumer inflation remained mild last month with sufficient market supply and warming demand, official data showed Thursday.

    The consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, edged up 0.1 percent year on year in April, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The figure was lower than the 0.7 percent increase in March.

    On a monthly basis, the prices were slightly down by 0.1 percent, narrowing from the 0.3 percent decline in the previous month.

    NBS statistician Dong Lijuan attributed the slower year-on-year price increase to a high base in the corresponding period of 2022, when the inflation growth came in at 2.1 percent.

    “In April, the market supply was generally sufficient and consumer demand gradually recovered,” Dong said.

    In breakdown, food prices continued to play a major role in dragging down the overall price level, retreating from the 2.4 percent increase a year ago to 0.4 percent last month. Poultry, fruit, cooking oil and pork saw weaker price growth, and vegetable prices dropped sharply.

    Non-food prices inched up 0.1 percent, softening from the 0.3 percent growth in March, as energy prices registered a significant decline. However, transport and accommodation prices saw considerable upticks.

    China’s core CPI, deducting food and energy prices, was up by 0.7 percent from a year earlier and by 0.1 percent month on month….

    1. baffling

      florida and texas are potentially heading into very turbulent waters. I would not be against some tenure reform-there are examples of faculty with tenure who simply refuse to to adequate work, and that should be addressed. but the purpose of the current reform is to allow political decision making in the hiring/firing process of faculty. that should not be permitted.

      if tenure is lost, you will see exceptional current faculty relocate to other states in significant numbers. this will be a brain drain, and cause a loss of institutions prestige. you will probably still see tenure track faculty get hired, but startup costs will increase to attract talent. but the schools in texas and Florida will become stepping stones to schools in other states, and the best ones will leave. this will be costly both in prestige, but also financially, as texas and Florida will effectively subsidize startup packages for other states.

      states that institute these policies will see the quality of their research institutions negatively impacted. no doubt about it.

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