Reader JohnH provides a graph which seems to show lagging median wages. However, his graph is inexplicably normalized to 2020Q1, when the pandemic was underway. Here are the same series, log-normalized to NBER peak at 2019Q4.
Figure 1: Average weekly real earnings from CES (blue), median weekly real earnings (tan), all in 1982-84$, in logs 2019Q4=0. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations.
The average wage in 2023Q1 from the CES is 0.6% higher than at NBER peak, while median wage from the CPS is 0.3% higher.
his graph is inexplicably normalized to 2020Q1
Yea – Jonny boy has been moving the goal posts for years. Same trick this troll used to claim UK real wages rose under Cameron.
“an inconvenient fact that mainstream economists avoid like the plague. For them it’s all about economic growth, which is overwhelmingly captured by the top 10% with crumbs trickling down.”
JohnH has been making this odious comment ever since he polluted Mark Thoma’s former blog. We have asked Jonny boy who the eff does he mean by “mainstream” economists. He used to accuse Paul Krugman of not caring about the distribution of income which of course is a flat out lie. Was Thoma “mainstream”? Well his blog had lots of discussions of income inequality.
Is Jonny boy thinking about Jason Furman here? Furman has been covering this issue quite well. Oh Jonny boy has now decided to attack Dr. Chinn. But wait – this blog covers this issue a lot. I guess Dr. Chinn does not qualify as “mainstream”.
Now little Jonny boy has lately decided to cite John Cochrane as his new favorite economist. Cochrane does talk about growth a lot but I challenge little Jonny boy to find blog posts from Cochrane that laments income inequality. Come on Jonny boy – put up or shut up.
Thoma’s gone silent on Twitter. Wonder what’s up with him? He seemed irritable in some videos. He seemed to drone on in one class about some skateboarder denting his car (I was wondering what Thoma thought his students who paid high tuition dollars for INSTRUCTION were going to do about it??). Rosser hinted he had some personal things that went bad~~hard to know how much stock to place on that. He seemed like one of those guys with a hard exterior, but inside the rock hard shell, a nice person. Hope he’s doing well now. Maybe happy as ever with the grandkids.
Moses Herzog: Thoma retired.
I appreciate that. I don’t know, I just thought he might remain active on twitter. I don’t mean to imply he “owes” anyone that. But he had a following and I just expected he might choose to have a more “active” social media “presence” post-retirement. But if he is choosing to spend 100% of that with family, friends, no one can fault or denounce the guy for that. I was just saying sort of kind of “it would be nice” if he still said some things on twitter or Reddit or whatever.
He did which is a shame as his blog was great. OK this blog is great too but you need some competition.
Maybe pgl could enlighten us as to how often mainstream economists actually do talk about equality. But of course, he’s not really capable of refuting a comment with actual data or links…
I’m hardly alone in concluding that mainstream economists avoid distributional issues. In fact, it’s not hard to find prominent observers who take mainstream economists’ avoidance/disinterest in inequality as a foregone conclusion.
Binyamin Appelbaum: “economists, who exert a profound influence on public policymaking, have an important role to play in analyzing the inequities of distribution, exploring the consequences, and shaping remedies. The past half century has provided a mountain of data…
Just as economists learned to incorporate the growth of knowledge into their understanding of the world, just as they have—for the most part—accepted the need to wrestle with the imperfections of financial markets, so too they now are grappling in earnest with the complexities of distributional questions.
Yet as a careful observer of the discipline of economics—albeit as an outsider looking in through the windows—engagement with these questions seems to me still constrained by a number of factors. Many economists have enduring doubts about the importance of distributional issues.” https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2020/12/economics-must-make-room-for-other-disciplines-appelbaum
Noah Smith: “Why would economists rather talk about efficiency than inequality? Having lived among them for a while, I don’t think the reason is what many people think…” https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/1301646/noah-smith/why-economists-avoid-discussing-inequality
The Atlantic: “Why So Few American Economists Are Studying Inequality…In recent years, it’s been European scholars who have written the blockbuster papers on the topic…
Michael Zweig, an emeritus professor at SUNY Stony Brook, says that American economists haven’t always shied away from social problems like class and inequality. But during the second half of the 20th century, he says, class was “driven from the discipline,” Zweig says. This is largely because U.S. economists focused on the market, always the market….
“In the American economics profession, the scope of economics as a field has been reduced to a study of the market, as though the market was the same thing as the economy,” he told me.
Eventually, the issue of income inequality became a “backwater” in American economics, the Washington University of St. Louis professor Steven Fazzari told the New York Times.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/09/why-so-few-american-economists-are-studying-inequality/499253/
As I’ve said before, I’ve tallied up Krugman’s pieces on inequality at the NY Times over the past few years. He does manage to publish 1-2 pieces on inequality each year (1-2% of his total annual opinion pieces there.) It seems pretty perfunctory, checking a box on his CYA list to maintain his liberal bona fides while making sure that he is not giving the Times’ corporate sponsors any cause for concern.
“Maybe pgl could enlighten us as to how often mainstream economists actually do talk about equality.”
I have many times. You are not only a dishonest troll but also a total waste of time. Stop polluting this blog with your garbage.
“The past half century has provided a mountain of data…”
But no one studies this issue? I guess Europeans do not count.
Jonny boy refutes his own stupid claim. Go figure!
“The common narrative on the political left is that economists are shilling for the rich, focusing on growth in order to draw attention away from how a few are gaining enormous wealth.”
Hey Jonny boy – that’s your common lie but actually READ the rest of what Noah Smith wrote. He is disagreeing wiht you. No wonder you cut off what he really said.
Yea Jonny boy cannot even be honest about what his own little links said.
Now find us where your new favorite economist blogger (John Cochrane) addressed this issue. Oh yea – you are ducking this too. Weasel.
There is a weakening of tenure in the usa. This is especially prominent in the state schools-see texas and florida, and recent legislation. One byproduct of that weakening is that researchers will drift away from topics that could become political. Wealth distribution and inequality is one of those topics. These issues will continue to receive less scrutiny if the populist movement continues against academic freedom for faculty to teach and research various topics. This is a byproduct of the culture wars.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=ZksD
January 15, 2020
Real Median Weekly Earnings, * 2020-2023
* All full time wage and salary workers
(Indexed to 2020)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=ZksN
January 15, 2020
Real Median Weekly Earnings for men and women, * 2020-2023
* Full time wage and salary workers
(Indexed to 2020)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Zktb
January 15, 2020
Real Median Weekly Earnings for White, Black and Hispanic, * 2020-2023
* Full time wage and salary workers
(Indexed to 2020)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=M25e
January 15, 2018
Real Median Weekly Earnings, * 2017-2023
* All full time wage and salary workers
(Indexed to 2017)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=ZkxV
January 15, 2018
Real Median Weekly Earnings for men and women, * 2017-2023
* Full time wage and salary workers
(Indexed to 2017)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Zkzx
January 15, 2018
Real Median Weekly Earnings for White, Black and Hispanic, * 2017-2023
* Full time wage and salary workers
(Indexed to 2017)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=rAbo
January 15, 2018
Real Median Weekly Earnings for men and women, * 2007-2023
* Full time wage and salary workers
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=rxxj
January 15, 2018
Real Median Weekly Earnings for White, Black and Hispanic, * 2007-2023
* Full time wage and salary workers
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Qe7j
January 4, 2020
Real Average Hourly Earnings of All Private and Production & Nonsupervisory Workers, * 2020-2023
* Production and nonsupervisory workers accounting for approximately four-fifths of the total employment on private nonfarm payrolls
(Indexed to 2020)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=QeCl
January 4, 2018
Average Hourly Earnings of All Private and Production & Nonsupervisory Workers, * 2017-2023
* Production and nonsupervisory workers accounting for approximately four-fifths of the total employment on private nonfarm payrolls
(Indexed to 2017)
Oh, I think I can explic what Johhny did. He fiddled with the dates until he got the result he wanted.
“…graphs are not always what they seem. There may be more in them than meets the eye, and there may be a good deal less.”
Darrell Huff, How to Lie with Statistics
Jonny boy loves to accuse others of lying with statistics. But no – Jonny is the master at this.
FRED uses the start of a recession as a basic, frequently referenced date. Naturally, Ducky just assumes that there is an underlying agenda. Of course, he doesn’t notice when others select special time frames, cohorts and deflators and intimate that they are representative of the whole.
Lord – what a stupid excuse. You are truly the most pathetic little troll God ever created.
Naturally, Johnny assigns an assumption to me which suits his agenda. The fact is, using expansion peaks as a starting ount for comparison isa common practice in economics. Johnny either doesn’t know that, or pretends not to know, in order to excuse his manipulation. Ignorance or dishonesty are the only explanations for Johnny’s behavior, yet again
Johnny’s claim that FRED normalizes (indexes) to cycle peaks is also wrong. Fed offers recession shading, but doesn’t normalize to cycle peaks. Users may choose to index to expansion peaks, recession troughs, or any other date using FRED. FRED doesn’t make that choice. Again, Johnny is either ignorant or dishonest.
And since FRED doesn’t index to recession peaks, it cannot be true that I have naively chosen to do what FERD does. That’s three strikes for Johnny, in a single comment.
Menzie, are you trying to express that crazy and heretical idea, that choice of base year is important when measuring economic activity?? Kopits says you’re full of it, great consultants never do that, they have to worry about reality “on the ground”. Like, that, …… and stuff.
Off topic, China’s private/public divide –
Chinese firms often pledge to behave independently of the Chinese security state. TicToc and Wawei are the best k own cases. Why would we believe anything statement about future behavior coming out of an authoritarian state?
Here’s Forbes reporting on “moderation lists” emoyed by TicToc’s parent company, Bytedance:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexandralevine/2023/05/01/tiktok-bytedance-suppression-tool-trump-china-uyghurs/?sh=73744a9e434c
TicTic and its Chinese-market siblings suppress the publication of items which mention Uyghurs, the U.S., Trump and TicToc competitors in the U.S, among other things. TicToc spokes-minions tried to spin the evidence, but Forbes dismantles the spin.
I’m pondering getting a “Amazfit Bip 3” Smartwatch and wondering if this makes me a hypocrite after railing against their government all the time. Headquartered in Hefei, Anhui . China seem to be helping Russia against Ukraine on some things (currency issues certainly), so, that thought makes me kinda sick.
If anyone here on the blog has thoughts on the quality of the brand or their personal experiences I’d love to hear them. Feeling good after no hiccups yet on the mower purchase.
I guess because of my new mower, and now I have even purchased a lithium battery weed wacker, I have had my thoughts on lithium lately (the health dangers, the chance of lithium battery overheating and fire). I can’t remember if I had already shared this link on Menzie’s and Prof Hamilton’s blog, but this is a very interesting FT post, and even has a pdf on the processing of lithium out of the ground that Goldman Sachs made. If you have a genuine interest in lithium you should read it. If not, it’s probably very dry/boring reading and you can skip it. Apparently the new “brine process” of lithium mining is similar to shale drilling (fracking) for oil in the sense that it has drastically increased the supplies of lithium available.
https://www.ft.com/content/0639cdc0-9863-4736-a9f2-1b6c433f9369
https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202305/12/WS645da8c0a310b6054fad2a18.html
May 12, 2023
San Francisco has new center to remember Chinese railroad workers
By LIA ZHU
San Francisco — Residents of San Francisco and visitors now have a place to learn and study the largely forgotten history of Chinese workers who helped build the US’ first transcontinental railroad.
The Chinese Railroad Workers History Center, near the southern entrance of San Francisco’s Chinatown, is expected to serve as a “multifunctional gathering place” for people to learn about Chinese Americans’ heritage in the US, according to the founder, Florence Fang, a Chinese community leader in the Bay Area.
“The center’s purpose is to remember the Chinese railroad workers’ contribution to this country; the goal is to give voice to the voiceless, and the spirit is to remember the past and inspire the future,” said Fang.
The construction of the Transcontinental Railroad, originally known as the Pacific Railroad, was completed on May 10, 1869. It was considered one of the most remarkable engineering feats of the 19th century. The railroad profoundly changed the nation as it not only expanded the American economy but also instilled national confidence.
Nearly 12,000 Chinese joined the railroad workforce; however, they dealt with prejudice, isolation and dangerous working conditions. Nearly 1,200 of them died from work accidents, avalanches and explosions while toiling in the Sierra Nevada….
https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202305/12/WS645da8c0a310b6054fad2a18.html
May 12, 2023
San Francisco has new center to remember Chinese railroad workers
Nearly 12,000 Chinese joined the railroad workforce; however, they dealt with prejudice, isolation and dangerous working conditions. Nearly 1,200 of them died from work accidents, avalanches and explosions while toiling in the Sierra Nevada.
The Chinese workers, who made up more than 80 percent of the railroad workforce, were soon despised in the country and then largely forgotten after the tracks’ completion.
“What is important to remember is the sweat and the tears and sometimes the lives of the Chinese immigrants who built the most treacherous, difficult part of the Transcontinental Railroad,” said California Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis….
I used to live near this new center.
Don’t encourage him. He’ll be angrily demanding you to pay him reparations in U.S. Treasury bonds. Then, the very next day, threatening to sell them all off if you mention Uyghur slaves and Uyghur deaths.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Exclusion_Act
The Chinese Exclusion Act was a United States federal law signed by President Chester A. Arthur on May 6, 1882, prohibiting all immigration of Chinese laborers. The act followed the Angell Treaty of 1880, a set of revisions to the U.S.–China Burlingame Treaty of 1868 that allowed the U.S. to suspend Chinese immigration. The act was initially intended to last for 10 years, but was renewed in 1892 with the Geary Act and made permanent in 1902. The Chinese Exclusion Act was the first law implemented to prevent a specific ethnic group from immigrating to the United States. It was repealed by the Magnuson Act on December 17, 1943.
The Act also affected the Chinese who had already settled in the United States. Any Chinese who left the United States had to obtain certifications for reentry, and the Act made Chinese immigrants permanent aliens by excluding them from U.S. citizenship….
if one were trying to understand trends, why would one want to normalize to the beginning of a pandemic? why would you try to normalize your data to a possibly once in a lifetime health and financial crisis? does anybody normalize their data to the peak of the Great Depression? or the peak of the Great Recession? John, in what world would this be justified, other than a world where you are deliberately trying to use statistics to bias your argument? it is one thing to normalize to regular cyclical peaks. it is very odd to use peaks that are very clearly understood to be unique outliers in the data.
I think you hit the nail on the head. Some people normalize to try and find support for a specific narrative. Those who seek insight will have a rationale for normalizing that is connected to “taking out” a specific parameter that is complicating the understanding of the data.
If you look at the FRED indexing options, the start and end of recessions are standard selections. Maybe you should take your concerns up with the folks at FRED.
You are blaming FRED for your dishonesty? Yea – you are a whiny baby boy.
So the absolute best defense you have for your choice of the end of the recession as the index date is that FRED offers it as an easy choice, and you didn’t know any better. So when you claimed that I chose the expansion peak as an indexind date because FRED offers it, you were simply projecting you ignorance onto me?
Johhny, even you know that my understanding of economics is superior yours. You aren’t honest enough to admit it, but you must know it, because I’ve corrected your errors so often. So this time, ignorance is no excuse. Your just dishonest.
Not that anyone who’s read your comments was in doubt.
just because Fred offers an option, does not mean you should use it. so I will ask this question of you once again, Johnny, and hope that you do not try to deflect and distract once again.
why would you try to normalize your data to a possibly once in a lifetime health and financial crisis?
exactly what kind of information are you interested in obtaining by normalizing to such a data point? Johnny, if you normalize, it should be for a reason. otherwise just present the raw data. blaming Fred is a copout. so again, Johnny, why in the world do you think it is appropriate to normalize to an outlier? even a freshman in college knows better than to do what you did. and they certainly know better than to try and defend the action.
Mike Lindell is one shady business person:
https://www.alternet.org/ceo-offers-stock-40-million/
‘I need help’: MyPillow CEO ‘offers stock’ to recover over $40M he lost ‘trying to overturn the election’
My Pillow Chief Executive Officer and election denier Mike Lindell is asking the public to buy stock in his business, Lindell TV, to gain back the millions he spent in an effort to overturn the 2020 election. Former GOP prosecutor Roy Filipkowski shared a clip of Lindell’s recent Right Side Broadcasting (RSB) Network interview via Twitter, writing, “Mike Lindell announces that he has spent over $40 million trying to overturn the election and he needs help. So, he says he is going to allow people to ‘buy stock’ in Lindell TV: ‘I want every person out there to have a little piece of the pie.'” Lindell said, “For the next couple weeks — could be for two to four weeks — we’re offering stock to the public,” adding “This is gonna be amazing!”
MyPillow is not publicly traded. It does not file financial reports with the SEC. And anyone who is going to trust their money with this clown is a sucker.
What are you talking about?? Master investors CoRev, Ed Hanson, and PeakTrader just maxed out their credit cards to purchase Lindell TV. I’ll update you Monday, going to contact my broker now!!! I’m also in discussions with Xi Jinping spokesman “ltr” so see if he can get Lindell TV offered on the Beijing Stock Exchange as non-voting ordinary shares. This is IT!!!! I’ve finally hit it big!!!! I’m announcing my retirement this Tuesday.
“The average wage in 2023Q1 from the CES is 0.6% higher than at NBER peak, while median wage from the CPS is 0.3% higher.”
According to this one measure, that’s absolutely stupendous wage growth!!! 0.6% in three years…or if you prefer 0.3%!!!! These positive numbers are so anemic and pathetic that it makes you wonder why anyone bothers to trumpet them, particularly in light of how much touted how well labor was doing during the tight labor market.
Moreover, what I find it absolutely astounding and supremely ironic is that what’s being put on full display here is that real wages rose substantially during the Trump years…and it’s been all downhill since then. Good job! If he weren’t so stupid, Trump would be eternally grateful!
BTW does NBER, which is responsible for determining the dates of recessions, ever deign to declare a wage recession? The depth, diffusion, and duration of real wage decline would certainly seem to make it qualify. Or doesn’t NBER care about periods of real wage declines?
“real wages rose substantially during the Trump years”
Unless Biden took office in Jan. 2020 – this is not true. But yea Jonny wears his MAGA hat proudly.
—– has been making this odious comment ever since he polluted Mark Thoma’s former blog. We have asked Jonny boy who the eff does he mean….
—– has been making this odious comment ever since he polluted Mark Thoma’s former blog. We have asked Jonny boy who the eff does he mean….
—– has been making this odious comment ever since he polluted Mark Thoma’s former blog. We have asked Jonny boy who the eff does he mean….
[ Language meant only to demean and destroy. ]
You mean like when you accuse cimmenters of being racist?
Sniveling hypocrite.
Australia has been the leader nation enforcing transfer pricing. But it seems one PwC partner violated all sorts of ethics rules to help PwC clients skirt the enhanced performance. OK no surprise that a Big Four firm would make money off of bad ethics and raw tax evasion but the good news – these clowns got caught:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/12/disgraceful-breach-of-trust-how-pwc-one-of-the-worlds-biggest-accountancy-firms-became-mired-in-a-tax-scandal