Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, NFP (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus of 6/1 (blue +), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), 2023Q1 is GDPNow of 6/1, all log normalized to 2023M01=0. Bloomberg consensus level calculated by adding forecasted change to previous unrevised level of employment available at time of forecast. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q1 2nd release via FRED, Atlanta Fed, S&P Global/IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (6/1/2023 release), and author’s calculations.
As New Deal Democrat points out, NFP and personal income are not as obviously rising as when normalized to 2022M01. They are, however, still rising (CPS series civilian employment is falling May, but as noted elsewhere, one should not put too much weight on this series given its volatility). Note GDPNow growth as of 6/1 (so using data from 2/3 of quarter 2) is positive, at 2% q/q SAAR.
And alternative series.
Figure 2: Civilian employment adjusted to nonfarm payroll employment concept (dark blue), private nonfarm payroll employment from ADP (sky blue), civilian employment (orange), aggregate weekly hours for production and nonsupervisory workers (red), manufacturing production (teal), coincident index (teal), retail sales ex-food services deflated by CPI (brown), all log normalized to 2023M01=0. Bloomberg consensus level calculated by adding forecasted change to previous unrevised level of employment available at time of forecast. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, and Philadelphia Fed via FRED, and author’s calculations.
Aggregate hours are indeed down slightly. Retail sales too, although that series is quite volatile. This series has been trending downward since 2022M04.
So, looking at a shorter period, one might be able to infer a deceleration more clearly.