Figure 1: GDP (blue), GDI (tan), GDO (green), GDP+ (red), GDPNow (sky blue square), all in bn.Ch.2012$, SAAR. GDP+ level iterated off of 2019Q4 levels of GDP. Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed (7/18), and author’s calculations.
CEA (2015) on GDO; see also Nalewaik and Braun (BPEA, 2011).
Aruoba et al. (2014) on GDP+.
Jacobs et al. (2020) discussed GDP++ in this Econbrowser guest post.
Revisions will change the picture of real GDP and real GDI. Until they do, what do we know? One thing we know is that real GDP turned down ahead of real GDI ahead of two of the past three recessions:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=17fFa
GDP has not turned down so far this year. Prior to that, the two series were good agreement in most quarters. That’s mighty thin evidence from which to draw conclusions about reliability as a leading indicator of recession.
This comparison between national income series between real GDI and GDP may be prompted by Johnny’s nagging repetition of his Schrodinger’s cat comments to an earlier post. Johnny, a cheerleader for U.S. decline, wants us to believe that GDI, which so far is reported as having declined in Q2, is more likely to be right than GDP, which rose. Johnny cares more about polemics than economics, so no surprise that he pefers GDI. It’s also no surprise he’s usually unreliable in his assessments of the economy. Johnny wants us to think the U.S. economy is in trouble, based on the thinnest of evidence.
Johnny notes that GDI revisions have historically been smaller than GDP revisions, using that point to argue that the latest discrepancy is likely to be resolved in favor of GDI and recession. (Oh No!!! The U.S. is in decline!!!) In fact, recent revisions have tended to be resolved in favor of GDP. And we may know why that’s the case. Covid-related subsidies to consumers have been large and have been a problem for national accounts statisticians. Those subsidies are an input to GDI, but not to GDP.
Most of the Covid-era transfers to personal income were ended in Q1 of this year. That means there was one final distortion of GDI data in Q1, and a correction from that distortion in Q2. Also, national accounts statistical systems typically employ seasonal adjustment factors based on the prior five years of data, so the entire period of distortion to GDI from Covid-era transfers is included in that base. Unless national accounts statisticians figure out a way to eliminate distortions from transfers, the reliability of GDI is likely to be impaire for a few years.
Johnny, ignorant of all this, wants us to accept his “U.S. decline” interpretation of the data. Reasonable people will conclude that we don’t know how the GDP/GDI statistical discrepancy will work out; they will ignore Johnny.
Oh, and one more thing. All three of the big monthly employment data series show growth this year, supporting the output growth seen in real GDP data, rather than the contraction of GDI. Johnny wants us to ignore that, ’cause it doesn’t fit in with his agenda:
Revisions will change the picture of real GDP and real GDI. Until they do, what do we know? One thing we know is that real GDP turned down ahead of real GDI ahead of two of the past three recessions:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=17fFa
GDP has not turned down so far this year.
Prior to that, the two series were good agreement in nearly every quarter. That’s might thin evidence from which to draw conclusions about reliability as a leading indicator of recession.
This comparison between national income series between real GDI and GDP may be prompted by Johnny’s nagging repetition of his Schrodinger’s cat comments to an earlier post. Johnny, a cheerleader for U.S. decline, wants us to believe that GDI, which so far is reported as having declined in Q2, is more likely to be right than GDP, which rose. Johnny cares more about polemics than economics, so no surprise that he pefers GDI. It’s also no surprise he’s usually unreliable in his assessments of the economy.
Johnny notes that GDI revisions have historically been smaller than GDP revisions, using that point to argue that the latest discrepancy is likely to be resolved in favor of U.S. economic declne. (Oh No!!! The U.S. is in decline!!!) In fact, recent revisions have tended to be resolved in favor of GDP. And we may know why that’s the case. Covid-related subsidies to consumers have been large and have been a problem for national accounts statisticians. Those subsidies are an input to GDI, but not to GDP.
Most of the Covid-era transfers to personal income were ended in Q1 of this year. That means, however, that there was one final distortion of GDI data in Q1, and a correction from that distortion in Q2. Also, national accounts statistical systems typically employ seasonal adjustment factors based on the prior five years of data, so the entire period of distortion to GDI from Covid-era transfers is included in that base.
Johnny, ignorant of all this, wants us to accept his “U.S. decline” interpretation of the data. Reasonable people will conclude that we don’t know how the GDP/GDI statistical discrepancy will work out; they will ignore Johnny.
Oh, and one more thing. All three of the big monthly employment data series show growth this year, supporting the output growth seen in real GDP data, rather than the contraction of GDI:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=17fGN
Johnny wants us to ignore that, ’cause it doesn’t fit in with his “U.S. decline “agenda..
Well said.
Only thing to add is that Jonny boy used to dismiss the use of real GDI back during the period when real GDP temporarily declined but real GDI rose. Yea – Jonny boy is a two faced liar. But now he denies he ever dismissed the use of real GDI. You see – jonny boy even lies about what Jonny boy has said in the past.
Hey Macroduck, you know I love you like a brother, but let’s not forget, JohnH represents a large segment of the thinking of American people and American voters. It’s something to think about in a time of narrow margins. Love, Uncle Moses.
Oh, I know. The reason I bother with a twerp like Johnny is to innoculate fellow voters against Johnny’s infection. We deserve better than what Johnny wants for us.
It’s a shame that only people with brains will read your explanation.
Reasonable people will read what I wrote, not what Ducky fabricates. What I wrote is that GDP and GDI are pointing in different directions, which suggests that the economy is anemic enough to be classified neither as “not in recession” or “in recession,” a non-binary state that suggests “in limbo,” Shrödinger’s cat, or “in a gray zone.”
But instead of just acknowledging this state of affairs, there is likely to be a lot of commentary like Ducky’s, trying to prove the “not in recession” possibility or its alternative. What is its purpose other than partisan politics?
Oh good grief. Way to white wash what you originally wrote. Dude – you have a bad habit of changing your tune as soon as some reasonable person calls out your usual trash. Jonny boy – a truly gutless wonder.
Again, why should you choose a politically charged description like anemic? That presents an unfounded bias. I see no anemic economy at this time. Record employment. You are simply promoting an agenda johhny. Stop using disparaging words and claiming you are simply an unbiased observer. You are very biased.
“why should you choose a politically charged description like anemic? That presents an unfounded bias. I see no anemic economy at this time. Record employment.”
You have noted this a few times and you are 100% correct. Let’s do this a different way. I just looked at real GDP relative to potential real GDP and the output gap for 2023Q1 was only 0.836% which is not bad given the massive shock we faced three years ago.
Oh wait Jonny boy wants us to consider only real GDI. OK – let’s see if Jonny boy can find the gap between real GDI and potential real GDI. This should be a lot of fun!
What I wrote is that GDP and GDI are pointing in different directions, which suggests that the economy is anemic enough to be classified neither as “not in recession” or “in recession,” a non-binary state that suggests “in limbo,” Schrödinger’s cat, or “in a gray zone.”
[ Perfectly reasonable and helpful.
Thank you. ]
Actually any complete review of the data and the issues indicates that Jonny boy is being deceptive and dishonest. Stop defending this clown as his whole game is a fraud.
What you originally wrote was a fraud. You played the rate of change comparison forgetting what my Cleveland FED link said. But we don’t need even that discussion if we took a look at GDI v. GDP starting in 2002QI. The former was quite a bit higher than was GDP. Of course as the measurement issues converged, the growth rate of measured GDI had to be lower than the growth rate of measured GDP. DUH.
This difference in levels finally disappeared in 2022Q4. So we have only the LAST quarter where measured GDI fell below measured GDP. BFD.
Once again – Jonny boy goes on and on over something he cooked up using very dishonest “analysis”. In a word – Jonny boy creates one of his patented LIES which he abused in one pathetic comment after another.
I bet little Jonny boy is SO proud of himself.
It is simply hard to argue that the data indicates a decline. Johhny is moving his goal post lately, and wants to lump no change in with recession as a four letter type of description, implying they are equivalent. Zero growth is not problematic if employment remains strong.
” Johhny is moving his goal post”.
Jonny loves to put the goal post on the 30 yard line and when we move it back this lying troll screams we are moving the goal post.
Oh wait – under the previous post Jonny accused US of “moving the goal posts”. Of course this incompetent troll could not say how these goal posts were somehow moved. Yep “moving the goal posts” is Jonny boy’s go to term and each time he uses it – he comes across as the moron he really is.
If we go back to 2019Q4, real GDI was slightly higher than real GDP. For a while measured GDI exceeded measured GDP by an ever wider amount until 2022 when this measurement difference closed over time. As of 2022Q4, measured GDI was slightly below measured GDP.
Point being looking at a one year change comparison ignoring all of this is about as distorting and dishonest as it gets. But that is Jonny boy’s entire “case”.
Now it is true over this 3 year period real GDI grew by 4% while real GDP grew by 5%. That is a more honest comparison. But an honest comparison does not give us Jonny boy’s hype. No Jonny boy has to be very dishonest to write the garbage he spews.
G thats good.
They all should be the same so does that mean GDP will fall soon?
I’m having a drink now. I just…… this post tickles my humor bone…… I love this post, because it presents data, I’m thinking, Menzie must think it’s “self-evident” I like these 4 data points and how they “relate” to each other. This is the intelligence of our friend, Professor Chinn. Love this post as I do most these posts,
Well said.
Only thing to add is that Jonny boy used to dismiss the use of real GDI back during the period when real GDP temporarily declined but real GDI rose. Yea – Jonny boy is a two faced liar. But now he denies he ever dismissed the use of real GDI. You see – jonny boy even lies about what Jonny boy has said in the past.
[“Jonny boy used to dismiss”]
[“Jonny boy used to dismiss”]
[“Jonny boy used to dismiss”]
Total BS…I challenge pgl to prove his claim.
Come on Jonny – it is well established that you lie about EVERYYHING. It is well established that you are a recession cheerleader. I do not need to prove a damn thing. You are a liar and everyone knows it.
Hilarious…pgl won’t substantiate his claims that I said something or other, because he can’t.
Go ahead, pgl, let’s see you substantiate your claim that “used to dismiss the use of real GDI.” Where’s the beef?
Instead he just bobs and weaves, lying as he goes.
Most of the time, when pgl says someone said something or “thinks” something, his assertion is total BS.
You flaming hypocrite. You regularly pretend to know what others think, who they work for, where their alliance lie, without the slightest evidence. It’s the trick you pull out when you don’t have a substantive argument, which is nearly always.
Now you complain that someone else is doing it? Johnny, you should at least try to make people think you have standards, even if you don’t.
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/working-papers/2013/wp13-16.pdf?la=en
GDO of course is the simple average of GDI and GDP. I have to say this because Jonny boy thinks it is an entirely different series. Yea – Jonny boy is a simpleton.
Now I know Dr. Chinn has discussed the derivation of GDP+ which is a weighted average of GDI and GDP but it seems Jonny boy never understood that either so I have provided the paper which introduced this concept.
[“Jonny boy thinks it is an entirely different series’]
[“Jonny boy thinks it is an entirely different series’]
[“Jonny boy thinks it is an entirely different series’]
You can bet that whenever pgl attributes something to me, his assertion is utter nonsense.
Go ahead, pgl, try to find a quote that supports your false assertion…
You told Macroduck you had three series that were declining and one that was rising. If you now say you did not make that statement – then you are lying as usual. Grow a pair troll – at least stand up for the trash you have written.
“JohnH
July 21, 2023 at 12:46 pm
Ducky is spewing BS again. The FREDblog chart that I linked to shows time series for 4 different series.”
You wrote this. Not me. Not Macroduck. And now you deny you wrote this stupidity? Yea – you lie even about what you have said. Same old Jonny boy.
Tracing Big Oil’s PR war to delay action on climate change
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2021/09/oil-companies-discourage-climate-action-study-says/
The U.S. House of Representatives’ Oversight Committee earlier this month widened its inquiry into the oil industry’s role in fostering doubt about the role of fossil fuels in causing climate change. A letter from the panel to Darren Woods, ExxonMobil chief executive, said lawmakers were “concerned that to protect … profits, the industry has reportedly led a coordinated effort to spread disinformation to mislead the public and prevent crucial action to address climate change.” The Gazette spoke with Geoffrey Supran, a research fellow in the History of Science, who, together with Naomi Oreskes, the Henry Charles Lea Professor of the History of Science, published a series of studies in recent years, the most recent one in May, on the climate communications of ExxonMobil, one of the world’s biggest oil and gas companies.
Not just in the U.S. The gas industry is doing the same in the UK:
https://www.desmog.com/2023/07/20/revealed-media-blitz-against-heat-pumps-funded-by-gas-lobby-group/
I’ve divided my comment into parts, guessing that the links I’ve included are leading to the “internal server error” message I have received:
1. Given the, um, passion displayed by many commenters on these posts, let me try to lay out as dispassionately as I can a bullet point *extremely* summarized version of why many people still see a recession ahead.
Let me start by saying that while a few people called for a recession last year, most did not. That’s because the downturn in GDP was largely inventory driven (so very transitory) and also by the gas price spike, which was geopolitical and speculative. When the West figured ways around Russian energy, that situation abated.
The situation this year is different. The easiest way to see it is for me to point you to the graphs of the Index of Leading Indicators in this post:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/07/20/leading-economic-index-conference-board-recession-signal-continues
The index is the best K.I.S.S. method to forecast the economy, having the very inconvenient habit of being correct much more often than the average pundit. It is now down as much as it has been at the bottom of all but the deepest recessions.
Final test
Apologies, I am not an economist, nor a statistician, though I do some data analysis. Just glancing at the LEI in your link, the indicator looks like a reasonably good indicator of recessions, and I guess I would find it concerning. What I do not understand is, when you go about constructing indicators like this, how do you avoid over-fitting, particularly when you only ever have one data set to fit to (GDP time-series, for example), and there are no imaginary-worlds where you can grab more without resorting to simulation. I know that over-fitting is pretty easy to do at the feature selection step without some sort of cross-validation.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/hops-for-beer-flourish-under-solar-panels-they-re-not-the-only-crop-thriving-in-the-shade/ar-AA1ebfJL?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=13d567a02dc240078e1c58443930c873&ei=9
Solar panels helping grow hops for beer. A win win!
Another win-win is placing solar panels over irrigation channels. Reduce the loss of water and make electricity.
I give up. I am receiving “internal server errors” to all but the most basic messages.
It happens. Sometimes I get the impression that link-heavy comment, once receiving that error message, cannot be posted. But maybe it’s just the wobbliness of the blog platform.
From a bit earlier but an interesting discussion:
The Discrepancy Between Expenditure- and Income-Side Estimates of US Output
Kurt G. Lunsford
https://www.clevelandfed.org/publications/economic-commentary/2023/ec-202301-discrepancy-between-expenditure-income-side-estimates-us-output I begin by discussing GDP and GDI for 2022:Q1. Initially, GDI in this time period was measured to be 3.4 percent larger than GDP. As discussed by assistant secretaries at the US Department of the Treasury, this large discrepancy between GDP and GDI could change perceptions about economic productivity and the burden of public debt.3 However, Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller speculated that differences between GDP and GDI growth could shrink as GDP and GDI are revised. Indeed, the BEA has since revised down the discrepancy between GDP and GDI to 1.1 percent.
Wait – GDI may have been overstating GDP? And revisions were expected to close this difference. So Jonny boy’s indication of a recession is nothing more than a correcting of the measure difference.
Once again Jonny boy makes a BIG deal out of something he never understood in the first place.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=17gok
January 15, 2018
OECD Leading Index for United States, 1980-2023
(Indexed to 1980)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=17gom
January 15, 2018
OECD Leading Index for United States, 2000-2023
(Indexed to 2000)
Off topic, anybody notice that it’s hot? –
There are now regular reports of dangerous heat in the West and South, with much of the focus on temperatures above 100 F (37.8 C). There are also reports, though fewer, focused on wet bulb temperature readings. Wet bulb temperature aims at assessing the ability of the human body to shed heat, and so to keep living. It is the area around the Gulf of Mexico where wet bulb temperatures have most often been extreme in this year’s heat wave. NOAA is developing a tracking system for wet bulb temperatures (check drop down menus for other good stuff):
https://digital.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/?zoom=4&lat=37&lon=-96.5&layers=F000BTTTFTT®ion=0&element=8&mxmz=false&barbs=false&subl=TFFFFF&units=english&wunits=nautical&coords=latlon&tunits=localt
A 2020 study by Colin Raymond (Columbia U., Jet Propulsion Lab) found that high and extreme wet bulb temperatures are more common that had previously been thought, and are becoming increasingly common:
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838
The “increasingly common” point should surprise no one. Increased air temperature extremes lead directly to higher wet bulb temperatures and indirectly by increasing humidity – every 1 degree increase in F temperature leads to a 7% increase in potential humidity. Here’s a graphic from NASA showing occurances of two wet bulb temperatures exceeding 80.5 F (27 C) in recent decades:
https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/2529/
Note the rising trend. And lest anyone think that a wet bulb temperature below the fatal threshold of 95 F isn’t a concern, remember over 70,000 people died in Europe’s 2003 heat wave, and wet bulb temperatures only reached 82.4 F. Last year’s European heat waved killed 62,000 at roughly similar maximum wet bulb temperatures.
Rush Limbaugh claimed that wet-bulb and heat-index measures were – you guessed it – a government conspiracy. His spiritual descendents repeat such claims even today. You can fool all of the ditto heads all of the time.
And remember, in NASA’s extreme scenario, much of the Southeast U.S. will routinely reach summertime wet bulb temperatures which prevent outdoor activity by 2050. Worse than expected weather extremes in the last few years suggests the extreme scenario isn’t far fetched. Make your real estate choices wisely.
Remember the current heat wave is not “the new normal” – it is the beginning.
“much of the Southeast U.S. will routinely reach summertime wet bulb temperatures which prevent outdoor activity by 2050. “
We have already reached that point in houston. Over the past 10 years or so, it has gotten progressively worse. It used to be july that things sweltered. Now we have lost much of june. Nighttime temps rarely break below 80 now, which means ac is running full speed 24/7. Change is happening now.
De Santis opens mouth and inserts foot:
https://www.businessinsider.com/desantis-says-black-people-benefited-from-skills-learned-in-slavery-2023-7
DeSantis says Black people benefited from slavery by learning skills like ‘being a blacksmith’
Let’s break this down. A black man is born in the Deep South in 1790 lives his childhood in slavery but ends up with blacksmith skills by 1815. And for the next 50 years he still serves as a slack doing the blacksmith chores for meager food and an awful shelter but no wages.
Is this the De Santis economic model for his state going forward? No wonder Florida businesses cannot job vacancies. A lot of folks are fleeing the state.
A year ago a couple of Treasury folks who know a thing or two (unlike JohnH) were noting how measure real GDI rose relative to real GDP:
https://home.treasury.gov/news/featured-stories/the-data-underlying-americas-strong-economic-recovery
The Data Underlying America’s Strong Economic Recovery, July 25, 2022, By: Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy Ben Harris and Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomics Neil Mehrotra
we revisit one important piece of evidence that shows stronger growth for the U.S. economy – the continued divergence between gross domestic product and gross domestic income (GDI). As we detailed in our previous blog, gross domestic income shows a faster recovery in U.S. output over the pandemic, resulting in a historically large discrepancy between the two series. This divergence further widened in the first quarter of 2022, when real GDI increased while real GDP contracted. Available data for the second quarter suggests that this pattern may continue.
Of course real GDI does not always exceed real GDP by this amount. This measurement difference was bound to close. Now that does not mean the economy has entered into a recession unless one is a mindless RECESSION CHEERLEADER like Jonny boy.
https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article/2/6/pgad173/7185600
May 29, 2023
Missing Americans: Early death in the United States—1933-2021
By Jacob Bor, Andrew C Stokes, Julia Raifman, Atheendar Venkataramani, Mary T Bassett, David Himmelstein and Steffie Woolhandler
Significance Statement
One million US deaths in 2020 and 1.1 million US deaths in 2021 would have been averted if the United States had the mortality rates of other wealthy nations. About half of these missing Americans died before age 65. The number of excess US deaths relative to peers is unprecedented in modern times, at least since the 1930s. These excess US deaths were a result of a decades-long divergence in mortality from other wealthy nations, beginning in the 1980s, and were further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The use of an international benchmark highlights unfavorable mortality trends involving all US racial/ethnic groups and disproportionately affecting younger and working-age adults.
https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article/2/6/pgad173/7185600
May 29, 2023
Missing Americans: Early death in the United States—1933-2021
By Jacob Bor, Andrew C Stokes, Julia Raifman, Atheendar Venkataramani, Mary T Bassett, David Himmelstein and Steffie Woolhandler
Abstract
We assessed how many US deaths would have been averted each year, 1933–2021, if US age-specific mortality rates had equaled the average of 21 other wealthy nations. We refer to these excess US deaths as “missing Americans.” The United States had lower mortality rates than peer countries in the 1930s–1950s and similar mortality in the 1960s and 1970s. Beginning in the 1980s, however, the United States began experiencing a steady increase in the number of missing Americans, reaching 622,534 in 2019 alone. Excess US deaths surged during the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching 1,009,467 in 2020 and 1,090,103 in 2021. Excess US mortality was particularly pronounced for persons under 65 years. In 2020 and 2021, half of all US deaths under 65 years and 90% of the increase in under-65 mortality from 2019 to 2021 would have been avoided if the United States had the mortality rates of its peers. In 2021, there were 26.4 million years of life lost due to excess US mortality relative to peer nations, and 49% of all missing Americans died before age 65. Black and Native Americans made up a disproportionate share of excess US deaths, although the majority of missing Americans were White.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=14JS5
January 15, 2018
Life Expectancy at Birth for United States and European Union, 2000-2021
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=14JSe
January 30, 2018
Infant Mortality Rate for United States and European Union, 2000-2021
The Guantanamo Candidate
https://www.thedailybeast.com/inside-the-ron-desantis-guantanamo-bay-doc-that-showtime-didnt-want-you-to-see?ref=home?ref=home
When executives at Showtime pulled a VICE documentary exploring Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ experiences with Guantanamo Bay detainees, it was hard to ignore the timing: It was one day after DeSantis officially declared for president. The Daily Beast has obtained a transcript of that unaired documentary, “The Guantanamo Candidate,” which was anchored by Seb Walker, a longtime correspondent for the Emmy-winning newsmagazine.
Among a number of insights into DeSantis’ past, the transcript features interviews with former prisoners and a former Naval staff sergeant-turned-Gitmo whistleblower who overlapped with DeSantis. All three allege inhumane treatment at the hands of the U.S. government, with the detainees directly implicating DeSantis—at the time, a junior-level military legal adviser—in approving and overseeing brutal measures. These former prisoners alleged that DeSantis watched forced-feedings, a cruel and degrading practice that a United Nations investigation into the controversial offshore prison concluded was torture in February 2006. This was the month before DeSantis arrived, per his military records.
Lukashenko claims Poland is trying to annex Ukraine, Wagner troops want to invade
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/lukashenko-claims-poland-is-trying-to-annex-ukraine-wagner-troops-want-to-invade/ar-AA1eeM0w?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=3ef579590bb94359be0c7896fe15fa93&ei=10
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko claimed Sunday that Poland is trying to annex Ukraine while he’s had to restrain Wagner Group fighters from invading the country. Lukashenko’s comments were made in a transcript of a meeting with President Vladimir Putin in a meeting in St. Petersburg provided by the Kremlin and translated from Russian. According to CNN, the Belarusian president is believed to have been largely joking with his Russian counterpart who smiled at his remarks about the Wagner Group.”I tol d you a long time ago, we saw this six months ago and discussed it beforehand. Why did I say all this? For us, Vladimir Vladimirovich, this is unacceptable,” Lukashenko said. “The detachment of Western Ukraine, the dismemberment of Ukraine and the transfer of land to Poland is unacceptable.”
Putin’s puppets are lying as usual. They are thirsty for blood all over East Europe. One problem – if they do invade Poland, it trips Article V. If Putin really wants World War III he’s the one that is going to be crushed.
in 1945 stalin attached a piece of land to ukraine that had been poland before 1939 (after 1919?).
stalin added a chunck of land south of that from hungary or rumania according to what austro-hungarin maps said.
the byelorus boss may wonder if there will be a 1945 style redefinition soon!
johnny has been cheerleading a recession, incorrectly, since at least first half of 2022. how long does one have to be wrong before admitting they were an idiot? combine that with a yearslong defense of putin atrocities in ukraine. makes you wonder what, exactly, is his agenda other than anti-usa rhetoric?
Proposition:
Use two consecutive quarters of negative GDO growth as a quick and dirty or preliminary indicator of recession.
gdp numbers today indicate that the economy is not in a recession. neither is the word “anemic” a good description. hey Johnny, where do we move the goalposts now? employment is great. stocks are at an all time high. inflation is moderating nicely. but Johnny will find a small little metric that underperforms, and use that to try and drag the usa down. Biden policy at work. as a friend on our blog likes to say, competency matters.