That’s from a Reuters report a few days ago. I think it’s important to (1) keep in mind what forecasters are saying, and (2) what GDP ex-military spending looks like.
Blue line (pink line) in Figure 1 below shows the IMF July (OECD June) GDP forecasts.
Figure 1: Russian real GDP growth from IMF July WEO (blue), from OECD Economic Outlook (pink) and Russian Finance Minister Aug 2023 (red asterisk). Source: GDP from IMF WEO (April, July), OECD, Reuters.
The Finance Ministry estimate is at the high end of the range given by the Russian Central Bank (1.5-2.5%).
Recall that this is GDP growth overall, part of which is being kept from being more negative by elevated defense spending. The brown line shows the growth rate of ex-military spending (as estimated by SIPRI), working off of IMF WEO forecasts. Shift downward equivalently if using OECD forecasts.
Figure 2: Russian real GDP growth from IMF July WEO (blue), ex-military spending from SIPRI (tan), using 2023H1 spend rate (tan square), using 2023 budget as reported by Reuters (light green triangle). All calculations based on IMF WEO GDP. Source: GDP from IMF WEO (April, July), Reuters.
See the caveats to how I calculate GDP ex-military spending in this post. I assume SIPRI catches all defense/security related spending, which is not likely the case (one estimate is that it’s only 3/4). The other is I assume the deflator for defense expenditures is the same as that for nondefense GDP. Finally, this is “gross” domestic product, not “net”, insofar as the depreciation of defense capital (destroyed tanks, helicopters, self-propelled artillery, expended ammunition) is not included.
Holding constant the estimated defense spending levels, growth in GDP ex-military spending is probably negative, even with the FinMin’s higher GDP growth estimate.
Maybe Putin could hire Lawrence Kudlow to spin the economic news. After all – JohnH has not done a very good job for the Kremlin.
I have no problem with reasonable forecasts that are not unduly tainted by partisan politics, government propaganda, or dogma.
Just out of curiosity, is there a net US GDP forecast that includes the depreciation of defense capital?
“not unduly tainted by partisan politics”
Seriously dude? You certainly chirp a lot about things that are not what you claim they are. Then again 100% of your comments are highly tainted.
So Jonny boy claims that Zelensky’s wife spent more than $400 million on some fancy resort. Maybe she bought Maro Lago! Oh wait:
https://www.palmbeachdailynews.com/story/news/trump/2023/08/25/eric-trump-reportedly-denies-mar-a-lago-sold-zillow-noted-422m-sale/70678542007/#:~:text=Former%20President%20Donald%20Trump%E2%80%99s%20Mar-a-Lago%20Club%20in%20Palm,that%20appeared%20on%20the%20real%20estate%20website%20Zillow.
Oops! Eric Trump denies Mar-a-Lago sold for $422 million; Zillow admits listing error
OK Jonny boy’s fake story involved some place in Egypt. But this is how it’s done. Run some phony story and little Jonny boy eats it up hook line and sinker.
Johnny, what’s “net GDP”? I’m pretty sure the G in GDP is “gross”, so you want to know about a net gross figure? Is that like positive negative number?
But really, you don’t really care whether your question makes sense, do you? You’re just tossing nonsense out because that’s what idiot provocateurs do. Asking whether a forecast includes depreciation kindo of misses the point that whether a forecast reflects depreciation depends pretty much on whether GDP reflects depreciation. Well, you’re a crackerjack economist, right? So you know whether GDP takes account of depreciation, right? Of course you don’t.
Why does Johnny carry on like this? Here’s why:
https://www.npr.org/2023/08/29/1196117574/meta-says-chinese-russian-influence-operations-are-among-the-biggest-its-taken-d
“net US GDP forecast that includes the depreciation of defense capital?”
Let’s see. BEA regularly reports net domestic product and yes it accounts for the depreciation of government durable assets. Of course, little Jonny boy has never looked at BEA’s NIPA tables so he has to ask a really stupid question.
New post on how Jonny has mangled this issue totally. Enjoy!
Tennessee House Republicans v. Justin Jones
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/tennessee-g-o-p-again-silences-democratic-lawmaker-justin-jones/ar-AA1fUvJr?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=dde440a914b74b959658e392fb0c29fe&ei=13
Tennessee’s House Republicans on Monday again silenced Representative Justin Jones, a Black Democrat who was expelled earlier this year in a gun control protest, after he was deemed to have violated new stringent rules of decorum. Democrats left the House chamber in protest after Mr. Jones was barred from speaking on the floor for the remainder of the day, while chants of “fascists” and “racists” broke out in the gallery overhead. Republicans ordered state troopers to clear the galleries. The decision forced the removal not only of the protesters but also of the parents of students who had survived a deadly school shooting and were keeping a quiet and emotional watch over the proceedings.
Jones won Round 1. He’s going to win this round too.
“Russia’s economy is set to grow by 2.5% or more in 2023, while inflation is expected to be around 6%, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov was quoted on Saturday as saying.” Reuters
And he thinks inflation was fall to 4% by 2024? Well if Putin imposes price controls – maybe.
Yadda yadda yadda. Russia’s inflation is not my problem. But US inflation is my problem, and it is very annoying when economists ignore its major drivers…such as corporate greed.
After all your blabbering about how how resilient the Russian economy has been? But you are very concerned with Ukraine and it’s “kleptocracy”?
Of course you are.
Kemo Sabe, JohnH’s tongue now permanently forked?
Yes, Tonto, it has been for quite some time.
are very concerned with Ukraine and it’s “kleptocracy”?
Jonny boy fell for a false smear of Zelensky that was so transparent it embarrassed Rudy G!
Your problem? Dude – no one here gives a damn about your problems (of which they are so many).
https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/inflation-cpi
Russia Inflation Rate
It spiked a lot in 2022. Huh – Jonny boy went bonkers last year over US inflation but not a peep from Putin’s pet poodle over Russian inflation.
Nothing like a war to get your economy going. Problem is that the consumption that wars induce are not the kind that keep the plebs happy. Furthermore, a lot of the war spending so far has been financed by cash reserves (and stock piles) – going forward they have to take money out of the civilian economy to finance the elevated military spending.
Repeating, as I intend to do regularly:
The Problem with Chunese Influence Operations:
https://www.npr.org/2023/08/29/1196117574/meta-says-chinese-russian-influence-operations-are-among-the-biggest-its-taken-d
From the article:
“The fake accounts posted links to articles praising China and denigrating U.S. and European foreign policy, as well as seemingly personal comments that appear to be copied and pasted from a numbered list, resulting in hundreds of identical posts.”
Note the similarity to ltr’s behavior here. For that matter, note the similarity to Johnny’s behavior here.
I now have a legacy for all time to come. I believe I was the first to identify ltr and Johnny as bought-and-paid-for luckiest of foreign governments. Meta ain’t got nothin’ in me.
Yeah, Jaimie Galbraith’s opinion piece at SCMP is just a Chinese influence operation…
“China in decline? New US narrative is geared towards 2024 election”
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3231483/china-decline-new-us-narrative-geared-towards-2024-election
One of Biden’s biggest problems as an incumbent is that he has no foreign policy successes. Instead, he is saddled with an embarrassing withdrawal from Afghanistan…a problematic lack of progress by his Ukrainian proxy, using “game changing” US weapons…and a rising BRICS, led by China and Russia. As the old adage goes, “when the going gets tough, chicken hawks just put lipstick on the pig” (and complain about foreign influence operations.)
‘One of Biden’s biggest problems as an incumbent is that he has no foreign policy successes’
Leave it to Putin’s poodle to see reuniting NATO to be a failure.
Ducky would also have you believe that Jeffrey Sachs is involved in foreign influence peddling operations!
“Ukraine Is the Latest Victim Of US Imperialism Because Neocons Want Total Dominance…Neocons are not interested in peace or stability; only full-spectrum dominance and total control over global politics can satisfy them. And those are the people at the helm of US foreign policy, Victoria Nuland, Anthony Blinken, and Joe Biden. Their relentless and unforgiving push for total control has pushed Ukraine into becoming NATO’s bloody spearhead, and they are trying to pull off the same trick again with Taiwan right now. Don’t fall for it. Even neutral and nonaligned nations are in the crosshairs of US warmongers.”
https://www.jeffsachs.org/interviewsandmedia/peace-is-not-an-option-for-neocons
Critics of the US’ past pointless, futile, and wasteful wars also got vilified and called all sorts of names. Such behavior is just business as usual for neocons and merchants of death…
You could voice your opposition to the pointless, futile, wasteful war in Ukraine by insisting a Russian withdrawal would end it. Instead, you cheer on the Putineers. That after claiming no connection to them or the atrocities they’ve committed. Instead, you blame the U.S. for its role in this pointless, futile, wasteful war.
You complain about Ukrainian kleptocracy—your problem?—with no mention of the world’s number one kleptocrat—not your problem?—who could end this pointless, wasteful, futile war tomorrow.
But that allows you to continue your faux handwringing and crocodile tears Re: pointless, fuitile, wasteful wars.
Do you think you’re fooling anyone?
Johnny is at it again. He’s pretending to know what I “would have you believe”. Big liar.
Johnny is a Putin supporter, because he’s a Putin employee. He will say anything to distract from the reality that Putin invaded Ukraine, stands accused of war crimes, is causing food shortages and is weakening Russia’s economy to the detriment of its citizens. That’s why, after braying endlessly about how well Russia’s economy is doin under sanctions, he pulls a clumsy about face and tells us he doesn’t care about Russian inflation.
“he’s a Putin employee”
And I thought Jonny boy was Putin’s pet poodle!
ISW (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-29-2023) reports on the latest Russian narratives;
“The GUR reported on August 29 that the Russian Presidential Administration held a meeting on August 25 to approve the specific narratives that Russian media should promote in the information space.[33] The Russian narratives include claims that Ukraine is conducting mass mobilization regardless of age, gender, or health; claims that Ukraine’s Western partners are disappointed in Ukraine‘s prospects for victory; claims that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is failing; claims that the Ukrainian government is completely corrupt and is not fighting corruption and; claims that Russian authorities provide good living standards and conditions in occupied Ukraine.[34] ”
Will be interesting to see how long it take for all of those to be peddled by useful idiots here.
Useful idiots like JohnH.
Nice catch.
Johnny? You have your orders, boy. Get busy.
Very informative link on the methods of Russian propaganda. Apparently too complex for MAGA folks and FOX viewers to understand.
Great contribution to the blog by Ivan
Germany’s biggest arms producer rewed up shell production 6 fold (100K to 600K). I would bet on German industry over Russian industry any time.
https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2023/07/10/rheinmetall-ceo-ukraine-armored-vehicles-tanks-ammunition-pleitgen-intv-firstmove-vpx.cnn
If Trump gets into office, Germany/Europe will easily be able to take over the support of Ukraine. The motivation in Europe to kill the ideology of “this used to be our land, so now we invade” should not be underestimated. They suffered so much during the world wars that they are just DONE with wars of border dispute. Land has become irrelevant for economic growth anyway, so the loses are far bigger than any potential gain.
Interesting. Now if you trust the BS from JohnH the German workers are getting lower wages than Russian workers receive. Of course such claims from Jonny boy are just dumb lies. But he routinely tells us such dumb things.
Putin’s Greatest Fear: New Report Says Russian Forces Are ‘Simply Not Willing to Fight’ in Ukraine
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-s-greatest-fear-new-report-says-russian-forces-are-simply-not-willing-to-fight-in-ukraine/ar-AA1fZFT9?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=71996c2803ee48c3919a1246db4d1254&ei=11
Can you blame them? Of course this good news for Ukraine is going to set JohnH off. Expect more emotional rants from Jonny boy.
Morale has been a major issue for the Russian army since the beginning of the war. They have been trying to find ways of motivating their soldiers but so far not with much luck. On the Russian side it is very hard to come up with why this fight is worth dying for. It doesn’t help much that they are using prisoners who have no other reasons to go, than getting out of jail. The command system is also horrible, with many officers that despise and abuse regular soldiers.
I’m worried about what Ukraine will do about Russia’s destroying its access to the Black Sea. It appears they have roughly 4 not very good options.
—Shipping them down the Danube River
—Shipping them by land towards Poland where they go out of Port of Gdansk
—switching from grain over to sunflowers and the sunflower seeds that produce cooking oil
—trying to find ways for long-term storage of the wheat/grain near Odessa etc.
As long as western nations and western allies such as India keep purchasing Russian oil, they allow Putin to continue on treading water, and murdering Ukrainians.
They just have to ship using smaller vessels that can stay along the cost lines of NATO countries all the way to Turkey. As you indicate they get the stuff to the Danube river over their own land routes, then it is literally less than 1/2 mile to get it into NATO waters and keep it there. Russia is not going to fire on ships in NATO nations waters. The other options are also valid but less desirable mostly because of cost. They certainly can switch to other crops next spring but right now they have to get the harvest out on the world market – it also would increase prices on crops that Russia sells a lot of.