While GDP is revised down, GDO matches my guess from last month.
Figure 1: GDP advance (light blue), GDPNow as of 8/24 (light blue square), GDP 2nd release (dark blue), GDO guess of 7/29 (pink), GDO (dark red), final sales advance (light green), final sales (dark green), all in bn.Ch.2012$ SAAR. GDO guess assumes net operating surplus drops $100 bn SAAR in Q2. Source: BEA 2023Q2 advance, and 2nd release, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.
GDO grew 1.3% – slower than the downwardly revised 2.1% of GDP (SAAR). As noted elsewhere, GDO is more reliable (relating to final revised GDP, predicting future GDP) than GDP itself (e.g., Nalewaik, 2010, 2011)
Notice that final sales were not substantially revised, with the growth rate at 2.2%; keeping in mind final sales are calculated from the same data as GDP (expenditure side), this figure suggests continued momentum in aggregate demand.
GDPNow is registering a 5.9% growth rate (SAAR) as of 8/24. Note that other tracking estimates differ. Goldman Sachs is at 2.6% (8/28) 2.1% (8/30), Wells Fargo at 2% (8/25).
Ungated Nalewaik:
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/2010a_bpea_nalewaik.pdf
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2010
BPEA papers and the following discussions are always a must read. Now a question – has this excellent work be updated since this 2010 presentation?
ADP puts private jobs in August up 177,000. No major sector shed jobs. Pretty good.
It used to be easy to access some of the bank reports on Reddit. If anyone knows an easy way (free) to access those I would be interested. It gets harder and harder to get these since “the golden days” of the internet, but I found sometimes when one access point gets shut another one opens up, so anyone can give me some hints here let me know please.
I can still read Reddit posts even though I was permanently banned. I got permanently suspended from Reddit for “harassment and bullying” (i.e. I told a female one single time after she ASKED Reddit readers about her appearance that she needed to go on a diet). Straight answers to queries on personal appearance are now “harassment and bullying”. So guys~~remember this next time a female stranger asks you about her appearance, please. I don’t want you guys to turn into an evil demon extremist bully like Uncle Moses, ok?? Tell the 310+ pound girls when they ASK you that they look sumptuous and you’re ready to “go to pound (Uh, not lbs) town” with them.
Frankly, I think the recent M-to-M PCE and/or annual PCE rate has little-to-nothing to do with Fed Res rate increases, and more to do with supply chain issues being resolved. But don’t tell the self-important JDs that. They’re too busy doing the victory lap in their fantasy world.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/core-pce-price-index-mom