CPI Inflation in September: Instantaneous Headline, Core & Headline Median and Trimmed Mean

A bump up except instantaneous core.

Figure 1: Instantaneous headline CPI inflation (bold black), instantaneous core (sky blue), month-on-month 16% trimmed mean (green), month-on-month median (red), all at annual rates. Instananeous a=4, T=12 per Eeckhout. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed via FRED, and author’s calculations.

Instaneous core is at 3.4%. Trend CPI inflation consistent with 2% PCE target is about 2.4% — so we’re about a percentage point above target.

 

33 thoughts on “CPI Inflation in September: Instantaneous Headline, Core & Headline Median and Trimmed Mean”

  1. Moses Herzog

    I don’t eat out every day, but more than I should. I noticed at least at fastfood places (I am not as certain on the “sit down” restaurants) the traffic in both the drive-thru and the parking lot is down. To me that represents something. Now whether that something is people are tired of paying $8–$9 for a very sad looking burger, tiny pieces of dried potato and sugar water, or they just have less disposable income, I do not know. But something is to be read there.

    I got some decent cotton t-shirts for $9 and some Wrangler long-sleeve shirts I thought were decent for $18. Frankly I STILL think I paid too much for both, but I wager I did better than most people do. Between now and December I plan on making at least one, and probably two visits to the gooodwill or 2nd hand stores and see what is up. E-bay etc is driving up prices at 2nd hand stores, but I bet you can still find things there. I keep planning to go to a place called “Ollie’s”, seemingly for the last 3–4 years I been planning to wander around there and never get around to it. It’s a bit of a drive but I may do it when I’m headed to someplace else in the neighborhood so I don’t waste but a couple drops of gas.

  2. Macroduck

    Scalise is out – for now.

    Is Jordan back in?

    Is a deal with Democrats worse for the country thana deal with the venomous, power-hungry, child-moesting fringe of the GOP?

    Heal the country, boys and girls.

    1. Moses Herzog

      Great question. I keep hoping for a new name to emerge. Politico (or Lisa Desjardin and PBS) are the sources I monitor. I mean I would just refresh the Politico page and Desjardin’s Twitter every hour or so, as if the story breaks I imagine it would break there. I hear WaPo fired a ton of journalists in the last 48 hours or so, so I’m not expecting any “breaking news” from them as WaPo are apparently going to McDonalds fast food style journalism now. They’ll keep the Food section editor and the travel editor who thinks none of us have heard of Paris patio cafés etc though. Can’t lose that pretentious edge for the wannabe snobs out there. Report on the loss of Democracy??~~aaaaaahh!!!! who cares??

      1. Macroduck

        This is, I’ve read, the worst year for journalism layoffs ever. Payment streams from Google and Twitface have changed dropped.

    2. Moses Herzog

      Desjardins was on Twitter about 2 hours ago (6:30 am Pacific Friday???) saying there will most likely be no movement on the Speakership today and even some members are absentee today.

      These are the Republicans that illiterate voters bring us. And those same illiterate voters probably have no idea what’s been going on in the House for the last week. Imagine the sh*tstorm in the media right now if Democrats pulled this stunt. Even the Israel/Gaza ground invasion would be taking a backseat. The media/societal reaction when Republicans take a holiday with no ability to pass legislation??–collective yawn. What happened to the Republican mating call “If this was a private business…… “??

    3. Anonymous

      what’s the downside of gridlock in h l mencken’s ‘monkey cage’?

      dems who vote in lock are no more nor less monkeys

      ymmv

      2. Noneconomist

        Normally, even with the weekend approaching, it’s a good idea to refrain from heavy drinking until late afternoon and evening. That also temper flying monkeys from interrupting good times for all.

      3. Ivan

        How come I am not at all surprised that you lack any understanding of that famous Mencken quote that “Democracy is the art and science of running the circus from the monkey cage”

        Let me give you another Mencken quote to fry your puny little GOP brain cells: “To every complex question there is a simple answer—and it’s wrong”

        1. baffling

          which is why i have argued democrats should have taken the first chance to vote in a sane person if possible. jordan probably lasts a shorter amount of time than mccarthy, but still…why would the gop even consider paterno for speaker? the baggage is going to be enormous.

  4. James

    The economists of Counter-Earth have chosen a path that is never discussed here on Earth – “Use the powers of government to dampen the economic activity of the rich” – “Increase taxes on the wealthy”; “decrease their purchasing power”; “reduce wealth disparity” – (of course – this never gets mentioned here on Earth – because Larry Summers would yell – never been done!, opinion writers of the WSJ/Bloomberg would yell in indignation and the GOP would yell – Remember Reagan! – while their current leader commits tax fraud and tax evasion.) https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/12/2198778/-Cartoon-Inflation-on-Counter-Earth (BTW- if the trolls need a link for my comment about Trump defrauding the people of NY – https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-letitia-james-fraud-lawsuit-1569245a9284427117b8d3ba5da74249)

  5. pgl

    Oil price update:

    https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/#prices

    Something tells me that Princeton Steve wants the Middle East mess to heat up even more so he can jump with joy over oil prices exceeding $100 a barrel. He is that kind of guy. But poor Stevie – Brett stands at $90 not $100.

    And the Ural spread is back over $15 with Ural prices below $75 a barrel.

    I guess he will need some other disgusting excuse to get on Fox and Friends.

    1. Moses Herzog

      I am pro-Israel, anti-Netanyahu. The two positions congeal quite well. See: October 7, 6:30 am Netanyahu time, 2023.

    2. Ivan

      I would not be surprised if this is true. After all it is hard to believe that Netanyahu had no idea of this attack coming. By allowing it, he has stopped attempt to hold himself criminally liable and to preserve Israels democracy – that must be worth 1300 Israeli lives to him.

  8. Moses Herzog

    This isn’t just any kind of eclipse, It is an annular solar eclipse. That means for a period of about 10 minutes, CoRev, Steven Kopits, Peaktrader, and Bruce Hall’s usual IQ of around 39, jumps, and makes it all the way up to 54. That means their brightness, although still quite dim, reaches a level they’ll rarely experience during their entire lives.

    That’s today’s educational breakdown on the annular eclipse.

  9. Macroduck

    This ain’t right:

    https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/10/12/israel-white-phosphorus-used-gaza-lebanon

    “The use of white phosphorus in Gaza, one of the most densely populated areas in the world, magnifies the risk to civilians and violates the international humanitarian law prohibition on putting civilians at unnecessary risk.”

    Israel’s Defense Ministery has denied “knowledge” ofthe use of white phosphorus in Gaza. However, the IDF has used white phosphorus in the past. Along with the other horrors of white phosphorus (and war in general) is that families sometimes can’t bury their dead because the body continues to smolder. Nothing will put the stuff out.

    1. Moses Herzog

      The use of white phosphorous (sometimes aimed at hospitals) is something Norman Finkelstein has pointed out numerous times in past Palestine clashes. Using multiple sources including the one you linked to there–HRW–and getting the same lies from the Israeli government. Different military leaders’ names, exact same modus operandi. Funny how that works isn’t it?? Of course many Israeli settlements are also against international law. Something Norman Finkelstein has also pointed out.
      https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3890355,00.html

      I was always under the impression the Torah and the Talmud, both, taught honesty and truth, but in my time of life I learn new things everyday. It’s so cool to be adjustable morally, isn’t it??

  10. Moses Herzog

    From “Politico Playbook”
    “What is going to happen is, they are going to vote on the floor, and then they hear from the grassroots,” Rep. TIM BURCHETT (R-Tenn.) told our colleague Olivia Beavers yesterday, echoing the belief in Jordan world that his opponents will cave under pressure from the GOP base.

    The theory certainly has merit: On a secret-ballot revote yesterday where members were asked if they’d support Jordan on the floor, opposition dropped from 81 to 55. And of those 55, only a handful have made their opposition public — suggesting there is indeed a fear of openly opposing Jordan.

    But getting to 217 will require a scorched-earth whipping effort that goes against the entire pitch Jordan made to his colleagues in recent days — that he’s a changed man who will represent all Republicans, not just base-pleasing conservatives. And should he move to bulldoze his opposition on the floor, that would repudiate his position earlier this week — that the nominee needed to garner 217 votes inside the conference before waging a floor fight.

    1. Moses Herzog

      @ Ivan
      Nice catch, although something tells me you and Ritholtz weren’t the only ones to notice. But Americans surprise at their apathy on certain realms of life–mostly when they’ve been brainwashed. Brainwashing is a chore outfits like Amazon no longer have to work very hard to do to the typical American. Republicans keep siphoning money away from public education and stuff like this induces snores from the MAGA dunces. After all, while waiting for Amazon parcels, they can watch “Dancing With the Stars “and “The Bachelor”, “Black Judge With 4th Grade Education Adjudicates White Trash Problems”, And “Unknown Celeb Sings While Dressed as Puffy/Fuzy Animé “. Although, yes, the titles of these TV shows are getting a bit long, what more could a MAGA American ask for in life??

      1. Ivan

        Another on-line marketing scam that is common, but hard to catch. Vitamin and supplements sold as 600mg xxx and 240 tablets per bottle at a remarkably low price. Turns out the 600mg is not per tablet but per SERVING (you really have to dig deep and look close to see that). Furthermore the serving size is 3 tablets. So you may think you will get 240 tablets of 600mg, but you are getting 240 tablets of 200mg. So if you take 600mg per day you purchased 240 tablets but only 80 days supply.

  12. pgl

    Florida governor Ron DeSantis is angry that schools in Gaza do not children about the Israeli state. Of course DeSantis has made schools in his state not teach children about the history of blacks in America. I just wish the lady hosting Face the Nation would have questioned this two faced clown on this inconsistency.

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