By happenstance, I was covering the challenges facing the Social Security and Medicare trust funds in my course on Wednesday. On that same day, Mr. Michael Johnson became the new Speaker of the House. In the past, he has provided an implied solution. From Newsweek:
“You think about the implications on the economy [of Roe v. Wade],” he said. “We’re all struggling here to cover the bases of social security and Medicare and Medicaid and all the rest.”
“If we had all those able-bodied workers in the economy, we wouldn’t be going upside down and toppling over like this … I will not yield, I will not. Roe was a terrible corruption of America’s constitutional jurisprudence.”
Aside from the morally questionable aspects of a breeding for fiscal solvency program, one has to ask — from a policy perspective — whether Mr. Johnson’s approach makes any sort of sense. The answer in short is no.
Arguments for this approach is based on (at least) two assumptions of questionable merit: (1) all abortions would result in viable workers with 100% labor force participation during their time in working age, and (2) criminalizing abortion would reduce meaningfully the number of abortions.
Cumulative abortions since 1973 through 2020 were 60.8 million; those born in 2004 were of working age (16) by 2020, using figures provided by the Guttmacher Institute (with linear interpolation of missing years of data). Cumulative through 2004 were 44.4 million. Of course, not everybody born in 1973 survives to age 47 (age in 2020). The survival rate is about 94%; for a 16 year old in 2020, it’s about 99%. Split the difference, apply an average of 97% to 44.4 million, yields 43.1 million. For 21-54 age group, the participation rate in 2022 was 81.4%. This means the increment to the labor force of 35.1 million. According to the 2023 SSA Trustees’ Report (Table IV.B.3), covered workers in 2020 totaled 174.9 million.
On the other hand, with greater fertility rate, the participation rate would’ve been lower as child rearing activities would have been higher (unless fully funded child care was available). In principle, the participation rate would decline equally for males and females, but I suspect Mr. Johnson would prefer female participation rates to be lower (Kinder,Küche, Kirche!). Determining how much lower would require some additional assumptions. Hence, 35.1 million increment to covered workers is very much the upper bound. In addition, had Roe v. Wade not been effect, 1973 onward, female participation rate would have presumably been lower, thereby further reducing covered employment (for age group 25-34, there is a 15 ppt gap in participation rate between males and females, in 2022).
Taking 35.1 million figure literally, the maximal impact on the covered ratio to OASDI beneficiary in 2020 would be to raise it from 2.7 to 3.2. For context, consider the following graph of the trend in the covered ratio, where the counterfactual is shown as a red +.
Source: graph from Peter G. Peterson Foundation, edited by author.
Note that under the most optimistic conditions, there is a small improvement in the covered worker ratio to beneficiaries ratio, but not one that will change the trajectory substantially.
The other assumption (2) is more problematic. The assumption is that once abortion is illegal, abortions would drop to zero. However, estimates of pre-Roe abortions range from 200K to 1.2 million during the 1950’s-’60’s. From Scientific American: “According to one estimate, extrapolating data from North Carolina to the nation as a whole, 699,000 illegal abortions occurred in the U.S. during 1955, and 829,000 illegal procedures were performed in 1967.” In the first year of Roe, 745 thousand abortions were performed. This means that the overall number abortions might not be reduced substantially by criminalization, unless incredibly invasive and draconian monitoring and policing measures are implemented.
While overall abortions might not decline, an increase in deaths and disabilities due to now-criminalized procedures might occur, as unregulated procedures are implemented. The rich, on the other hand, will be able to access abortion procedures by travel. Hence, there are severe distributional consequences of criminalizing abortion.
In sum, Mr. Johnson’s program of using women as breeding machines would not likely save Social Security.
*apologies to Jonathan Swift.
The data I have seen suggests that we have had a slight increase in abortions after the repeal of Roe vs. Wade. Turns out that if you push people to make a quick decision, they are more likely to get an abortion. If the cut off is 6 weeks the rationale is “I can always get pregnant again, but cannot get an abortion if I wait and consider this any further”. Also the systems for delivering tele-health and underground abortion pills have been build a lot better up than they were before. The difference was that with Roe vs. Wade the abortions were safe and legal. It is hard to force a woman to become a mother if she doesn’t want to.
“Cumulative abortions since 1973 through 2020 were 60.8 million”
I would stop right there. The faulty assumption is that every avoided abortion results in an additional person in the population. But most families do try to limit their number of children and, assuming birth control is still legal — yes, a doubtable assumption with this crowd –, if they have an early unplanned child that would otherwise have been aborted, it is likely in many cases that unplanned child will displace another planned child later. So at least in some cases all that banning abortion does is shift children to earlier in their parents lives, perhaps when they are less able to provide for them.
Furthermore, a lot of abortions are conducted to remove a non-viable fetus, that it would be (and still is) cruel to ask the woman to carry any further. In some cases the failure to remove the fetus will kill the woman so she will not give birth to any more children. This moron has no clue what he is talking about, but that doesn’t stop him from talking – nor does it make him talk with someone who know things.
“The assumption is that once abortion is illegal, abortions would drop to zero.”
Watch your typical “conservative” Republican wrestle with that point/counterfactual in their pea sized brain. The fact that a huge proportion of women who “desired” an abortion (i.e. didn’t have any very good alternatives) would still be getting abortions, only under much more dangerous conditions than if they were legal. These “conservative” Republicans would much rather the abortion be performed in dark alleyways, with a wire coat hanger, by an alcoholic doctor who had lost his license to practice 15 years ago than have a woman have the abortion option under hygienic, efficacious. and non-demeaning context.
One of the reasons that the rich GOP campaign contributors settled on abortion to fool the fools was that this added danger only applies to poor people. Rich people have always been able to have their wife/daughter travel to places where abortion is legal and have “it” taken care of under safe conditions. Only the poor will suffer. So it was indeed the perfect thing to brainwash idiots to think of abortions as “baby killing” in order to get them to vote for the party of the millionaire class.
At first I suggested this MAGA clown was not as bad as Jim Jordan. OK – I was wrong. He is worse – much worse.
“If we had all those able-bodied workers in the economy”
So the Speaker is for – not against – immigration? Maybe he should go down to the border with Mexico and demand we tear down Trump’s wall.
Yes – getting more able bodied workers is as easy as tearing down the wall. Furthermore, immigrants are much cheaper than growing them from birth. Immigrans do not need all that expensive childhood education and things. You can hand them a shovel on arrival and they can start digging. Those who have terrible health problems and never become productive adults are automatically not going to come here – nor cost our society any money.
Second in line to the presidency with Mr. Johnson (who because of GOP gerrymandered district has never had a meaningful election race) – and one step closer to a reality of Margaret Atwood’s Handmaid’s Tale.
Also I suggest bypassing the puff pieces on Rep Johnson in which he is described by members of his church (majority of his voters) as being a man of “faith and family” and going to Krugman on what public policies Rep Johnson supports: you should work till 70 and if you have a disability you can die in a ditch somewhere – preferably out of sight from his Baptist Church – https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/26/opinion/mike-johnson-republican-party.html
Also Rep Johnson says we should look in the Bible for his policy positions – last time I checked there was nothing in there on firearms (automated or otherwise); climate change, EVs, modern medical procedures, modern financial systems, the Internet, indoor plumbing, global food supply chains, etc – pretty much any issue we are dealing with is not mentioned in the Bible. Also MIke missed all the sermons about the govt and rich giving to the poor and mistakenly thinks that God wants to give tax cuts to the wealthy so they can increase their hoards.
Also can we stop the hideous and harmful patriarchal suppression of women and just do what the U.S. has always done to increase our population – let in people from other countries?
Finally – stop voting for the GOP – there are no “moderate conservatives” – Mitt Romney has left the building – https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/oct/29/mitt-romney-review-reckoning-trump-mckay-coppins
If he really believes this would solve Social Secuirty’s problems, then it stands that he would be for MORE immigration to this country to help get more able-bodied workers into the economy.
That is his stance, right? Oh wait…
Is JohnH really uber right wing liar Ramesh Ponnuru
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/10/27/why-americans-unhappy-biden-economy/
Average wages are down in real terms — adjusted, that is, for inflation — since President Biden took office. They are roughly 3 percent lower than their peak in April 2020….Even when you compare wages today with the pre-pandemic trend, they are still about 2 percent lower than people had reason to expect.
Sound familiar? No need to take this garbage down as Kevin Drum already has:
https://jabberwocking.com/no-wages-arent-down-recently/
Ramesh Ponnuru went date shopping to get his result…and found a date that gave him the result he wanted. By April 2020 real wages had risen due to composition effects.
My reference date is 4Q19 or Jan/Feb 2020…before the pandemic and composition effects. If you use those dates, you get real wage increases of less than 1% over the last three and a half years…essentially stagnation in a labor market that has been extraordinarily tight…exactly the kind of market in which economists have long assured us that real wages would rise. But they were wrong.
For the umpteenth time, here are the facts, calculated by a FredBlog economist, who is obviously NOT a partisan hack like pgl, who misinterprets, misrepresents, insults and lies to discredit the facts others present. https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2018/02/are-wages-increasing-or-decreasing/
(BTW date shopping is not uncommon here. Sometimes commenters tout a month, sometimes three months, sometimes a year to make their point. And some have been known the avoid specifying the time period they are talking about! It’s all part of their partisan hackery…)
‘Ramesh Ponnuru went date shopping to get his result…and found a date that gave him the result he wanted. By April 2020 real wages had risen due to composition effects. My reference date is 4Q19 or Jan/Feb 2020’
Are you saying there is some other lying troll that poses here as JohnH? Come on dude – this deny, deny, deny approach is not fooling anyone.
“date shopping is not uncommon here”. You should know as you are the master of this hackery.
Crank out the cannon fodder. Education? Nah. They are intended to be serfs and privates in the army.
When politicians speak in a way suggestig that policy ought to prioritize a single problem, shoring up Social Security for instance, then we ought to replace them. Simple-mindedness is a pooe qualification for power.
School funding? Resource pressure? Housing? Ignored, for the sake of funding Social Security? Not how good policy is made.
Johnson is proposing a way to increase funding for Social Security. Excellent! Raise the contribution cap and problem solved.
Not only does raising the contribution cap solve the funding problem now, bit it doesn’t simply attempt to solve the problem by kicking it down the road. Extra contributors now means extra beneficiaries in the future. If Johnson were the right person to solve the funding problem, he’d realize that raising the cap is the better solution. No extra resource pressure. No increase in the housing shortage. No need for more school funding, teachers, pediatricians… No increase un future beneficiaries without a means to fund their benefits. And we know it would work, unlike Johnson’s proposal.
There is also a problem with Mr. Johnson’s simistic solution, even if it were to “work” by expanding the Social Security contribution base in the medium term – 18 to 40 years from now, 12 if child labor laws are abolished. If human populations are subject to the same rules as other populations, we may be entering a period of negative feedback, in which population expansion hurries the onset of population contraction:
https://www.mdpi.com/2673-4060/4/3/32
This is not a new idea, of course. Malthus thought of it. Paul Ehrlich did, too. William Rees has reframed the idea, applying modern ecological understanding. It’s arguably a bigger problem than Social Security funding or abortion, but as long as we’re (I am) on the topic of getting our policy thinking right, might as well keep negative feedback, massive suffering and all that environmental stuff in mind.
“This means that the overall number abortions might not be reduced substantially by criminalization, unless incredibly invasive and draconian monitoring and policing measures are implemented.”
So I guess the MAGA hatters want the government to spy on every aspect of a woman’s life. And they complain about jack boots?!
BOJ relaxes grip on rates as end to yield control looms
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/boj-relaxes-grip-on-rates-as-end-to-yield-control-looms/ar-AA1j8JyB?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=f33056b955f243a49dd65a48c430abdb&ei=10
TOKYO (Reuters) -The Bank of Japan further loosened its grip on long-term interest rates by tweaking its bond yield control policy again on Tuesday, taking another small step towards dismantling its controversial monetary stimulus of the past decade. While it kept ultra-low interest rates steady, the BOJ watered down its 1% cap on the 10-year bond yield which it set just three months ago to allow long-term borrowing costs to rise more.
The bank’s nine-member board also revised up its price forecasts to project inflation will well exceed its 2% target this year and next, underscoring a growing conviction that conditions for phasing out its super-loose policy are falling into place. But the yen tumbled against the dollar after the decision as traders focused on the BOJ’s dovish pledge to “patiently” maintain accommodative policy and forecast inflation would drop back below 2% in 2025. “We still haven’t seen enough evidence to feel confident that trend inflation will (sustainably hit 2%),” BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told a press briefing after the decision. “As such, we don’t see a big risk of being behind the curve.”
Japan has long been known for both low inflation and very low government bond rates. But I guess those days have past. I just checked World Government Bonds. Their 10-year government bonds are paying nearly 1% while their 40 year government bonds are yielding 2%.
Inflation has run above 2% since spring of 2022. Unemployment is below 3%. Real GDP growth positive for the past 3 quarters. Real GDP per capita rose in 2021 and 2022, and is set to rise this year.
So the justification for manipulating the curve is mostly gone. Japan is looking healthy.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/10/04/the-disinversion-of-the-curve-makes-a-hard-landing-a-lot-more-likely-says-jpmorgans-priya-misra.html
The Fed can stop a hard landing. Against all odds they can STILL stop a hard landing. But with a Democrat in the White House, what does the Fed ALWAYS do??
Meanwhile, the Eurozone is looking pretty wobbly:
https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/gdp-growth-annual
Rough neighborhood.
It seems likely that more young people having babies rather than abortions would reduce the quality of labor (and hence labor productivity) as measured by educational attainment. Dropping out of school and entering the workforce to pay for unplanned babies affects both male and female workers, although to different degrees.
This topic is depressing. I don’t think I’m old enough for this topic. My sister once told me I was infantile long after entering my adult years. As far as this topic is concerned I think she was right.
If women get in a pickle and want abortions, I am fine with that, and I am fine with it being legal. My only question is, is wearing a condom when you play THAT damned hard?? I’m thinking at this point even the nutjob Catholics have figured that one out.
Since I have not bought bacon in over 16 years, I’m not expert on the price for the breakfast food so I had to check the facts on the claims by Trump about how bacon prices have soared under Biden:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/fact-check-is-donald-trump-right-about-bacon-s-price-surge/ar-AA1jamP0
As I read the facts and the BS from Trump, I wondered if Bruce Hall and JohnH had teamed up as Trump’s economists.
If you get to cherry-pick one food item that has gone up a lot and also get to cherry-pick a specific time interval that maximize the price increase – it should be fairly easy to get something that sounds impressive to the fools. He was very specific with the increase and the time interval so the numbers are probably right but for a different product. He thought he was in Sioux Falls but was in Sioux City. It would not be a surprise if this senile old fool thought he was talking about bacon but was actually talking about some other food product.
Menzie cites “A Modest Proposal” and you bring up bacon? Gads!!!
Bacon goes good with anything. Even roasted with……..
Deer meat. What did you think I was going to say??
Or you can wrap the bacon around a sausage – that’s good too. But slow roast so it doesn’t burn.
Ivan, you’re my bro right?? I mean…. If you like to get drunnk like I do, possibly passed out…. you gotta be careful cooking or slow roasting anything…. just saying,,,,,,
I just told on myself didn’t I?? Well off to burning down my house now…. : ) I won’t friends
Hoo boy…
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/mike-johnson-crusade-birth-control-1234865718/
I guess he is a be fruitfil and multiply kind of guy.
Let’s hope not the Tom Coburn (“No, really, hush money payoffs are cool bro”) and John Ensign kind of fruitful.
https://www.politico.com/story/2009/07/coburn-knew-of-ensigns-affair-024706
This guy could become a millstone around the neck of GOP candidates in competitive districts. There are just so much right wing Christian nutcase stuff from him and his wife that he will be the perfect target for Democrats – now that GOP has elevated him as one of their top leaders.
For those interested in the literary intersection of cannibalism and politics, M. Swift’s esffort is joined by Mr. Twain’s:
https://americanliterature.com/author/mark-twain/short-story/cannibalism-in-the-cars
No children were devoured in the writing of Twain’s story.
The Supreme Court has to hear the Trump Too Small case:
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2023/11/01/supreme-court-donald-trump-too-small-trademark/3311698846239/
Nov. 1 (UPI) — The U.S. Supreme Court is hearing a case Wednesday over the use of former President Donald Trump’s name in a trademark that plays off an old sore spot for the 2024 hopeful. “Trump Too Small” is the phrase in question. California attorney Steve Elster is seeking a trademark for the phrase to be emblazoned on a t-shirt, according to Supreme Court documents. Trump is not actively involved in the case. The back of the shirt critiques Trump’s stances on a number of political issues, stating that he is “Small on” the environment, civil rights, immigrant rights, LGBTQ rights and more.
Stormy Daniels can attest to Trump being quite small in another way.
Remember the many times we were told that Biden is engaged in a war on fossil fuels? It was a dumb accusation. One type of data used to make the claim was the drop in U.S. crude production from the al-time, pre-Covid high. It was a dumb, dishonest claim, ignoring things like reduced vehicle use due to Covid, but never mind. Turns out crude production has hit a new record high:
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Crude-Production-Breaks-Records.html
So I guess the war is over?
In spite of Biden’s claim 1) before being elected: “Biden denied the donor’s association to the fossil fuel industry before calling the young woman “kiddo” and taking her hand. He said, “I want you to look at my eyes. I guarantee you. I guarantee you. We’re going to end fossil fuel.”” https://apnews.com/united-states-presidential-election-9dfb1e4c381043bab6fd0fa6dece3974
and more recently: Price Tag for Biden’s War on Oil and Gas https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/fossil-fuels/price-tag-for-bidens-war-on-oil-and-gas/
“Estimates are that the United States has foregone between 1.2 and 3.5 billion barrels of oil due to Biden’s policies
….
The United States could have completely neutralized the OPEC and Russian voluntary oil output cuts of 1.3 million barrels a day now driving up oil prices. Instead, Biden policies are for net zero carbon or, in other words, net zero fossil fuels, which is an energy scheme that would impoverish America while pouring billions of dollars into the reserves of the Saudis and the Russians. Biden and the Democrats in Congress have provided at least 150 ways to hurt the productivity of the U.S. oil and gas industry with the most recent being the revoking of leases in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and proposing to place more prime oil and gas lands off-limits for drilling in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska….”
Biden’s Net Zero goals, particularly the push for EVs and the Off Shore Wind efforts are reaching turning points for failure.
Show us the successful demonstration projects renewable electricity is self sustaining.
CoRev’s source is the Institute for Energy Research which is bought and paid for by Big Oil:
https://blogs.dickinson.edu/nepalmosaic/2017/09/28/the-institute-for-energy-research-to-believe-or-not-to-believe/
Uh CoRev – accusing Biden of accepting money and then using as your guru this very biased group? Same old dishonest little CoRev.
PGL, I am amazed, even again, at the liberal mind which cites what appears to be a Dickinson College student’s blog from 2017, which lasted 3 months. That’s a level of desperation which is seldom surpassed. You do amaze.
Now then, can you refute either of the references above? Is the Biden quote false? Are the IER estimates wrong? Y’ano that ole core of the comment.
Uh CoRev – some college student was smart enough to bust your biased source. Get over it troll – we all get your dishonest game.
Uh CoRev – some college student was smart enough to bust your biased source. Get over it troll – we all get your dishonest game.
“Estimates are that the United States has foregone between 1.2 and 3.5 billion barrels of oil due to Biden’s policies”
Click through and notice that the source for this is the NYPost? A Trumpian right wing rag.
PGL’s desperation grows. Bias is now a no no!? I guess we should now ignore EPA recommendations because their staff are environmentally biased? It is an amazement, that he can not comment on the core of the comment. ” Is the Biden quote false? Are the IER estimates wrong? Y’ano that ole core of the comment.”
BTW, I see the list of off-shore Wind renewable companies dropping out or attempting to RAISE their prices is not up to 3. “Shell Pulls Out of US Offshore Wind Farm Contract…
Energy firms from BP (BP.L) to Orsted (ORSTED.CO) have announced hefty writedowns in recent days for their U.S. windfarm projects in the face of high inflation.” https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2023/11/03/shell-pull-out-of-us-offshore-wind-farm-contract/
More on CoRev’s IER:
https://www.prwatch.org/news/2016/12/13184/revealed-trump-administrations-energy-plan
The future Donald Trump administration’s energy agenda is revealed in a memo prepared by Trump’s energy transition head Thomas Pyle, titled “What to Expect from the Trump Administration.” The document, obtained by the Center for Media and Democracy (CMD), was sent by Pyle on November 15th, just days before the Trump campaign announced Pyle’s appointment as head of his Department of Energy transition team. Pyle is the President of both the American Energy Alliance and the Institute for Energy Research. Both organizations have received cash from numerous fossil fuel funders including ExxonMobil, Peabody Energy and Koch Industries. From 2001 to 2005, Pyle was Director of Federal Affairs for Koch Industries.
CoRev loves to cite MAGA hatters and the Koch Brothers. Of course integrity has never been little CoRev’s calling card.
PGL, at least I cite industry/subject experts and not liberal arts college students. Where you go for expertise is emblematic of the depth of your own knowledge. Obviously not very DEEP.
You are citing bought and paid for liars – your kind of people. But come on CoRev you lies are stale by now. Under the most recent post – Macroduck links to the latest from James Hansen. His latest research completely undermines your serial dishonesty.
Me thinks your Big Oil bosses need you to go read this research paper so you can find more ways spin and distort reality. Get busy little troll as you are way behind.
Paul Homewood? CoRev is back to referencing this discredited troll? Damn CoRev – what’s next? Citing John Eastman as an authority on Constitutional Law?
I have suggested before that JohnH was the most dishonest troll ever. I was wrong. Jonny boy lies a lot but he is no match for little CoRev!
Unfortunately the war on stupidity is never over. Every time one battle is won, another one pops up. But thank you for your service.
Biden, as the incredibly competent leader he is, has recognized that US hydrocarbon production must be temporarily increased to ensure the price of oil stay within the preferred band of $80-100 per barrel. This is a delicate balancing act of a handful of competing interests. Thank God we don’t have the orange fossil of senility running the country.
The increase in USA domestic crude supply began in March 2022, along with a decrease in crude imports (mostly from Canada and Mexico) and a large increase in export of refined fuels.
Since Mar 2022 USA export far more than under Trump.
More to back Russia sanctions, than keep energy prices low.
My opinion USA can export a lot with declining gas/diesel prices is economy is not running fast.
Yes it was a very deliberate policy to make sure that the sanctions against Russia didn’t sabotage themselves by increasing world market prices of oil. Smart Presidents do smart policy – Orange President did clown parades.
At the same time the switch away from hydrocarbon energy is at this time best supported by crude prices at $80-100 per barrel. At that level hydrocarbons have a hard time competing against unsubsidized alternatives. Increased interest rates have changed that target, so now it may be more like $90-110 because the alternative projects require all the money up front (followed by 30 years of almost free energy). Smart governments will offer low interest loans for alternative energy projects – not sure it can be done in this country.
“Biden, as the incredibly competent leader he is, has recognized that US hydrocarbon production must be temporarily increased to ensure the price of oil stay within the preferred band of $80-100 per barrel.”
this is what idiots like covid do not understand. I am willing to use and abuse fossil fuels to reach the end game. in the near term, they will simply be used as a bridge to get us to a renewable world. that transition will not happen overnight. but there will be no longer term investment in them, because they have no future. once they are no longer of use, then I will simply ban them outright. but we are not there yet. they will soon become a temporary footnote in the world of energy. but they will be phased out under our terms, not theirs.
Baffled, thanks for the confirmation: ” then I will simply ban them outright. ” And, yet ole mcQuack believes: “Remember the many times we were told that Biden is engaged in a war on fossil fuels? It was a dumb accusation….
So I guess the war is over?”
I guess you are still fighting it while considers it over and ?lost?, because of the new record production?
“Wars” on dead objects is just blustering language used by idiots to impress other idiots. You cannot fight a war with someone(/thing) that cannot fight back and develop counter strategies.
Ivan, that’s your argument that there is no WAR on fossil fuels???? Next you re going to tell us again how electrons generated by Wind & solar are FREE! That unsupported claim made without showing us one SUCCESSFUL demonstration project.
Yup! That’s why the major developers and operations of Wind & Solar are asking for huge increases in prices to continue development or operations. Their electrons are so cheap that they can not compete with thermal sources. And those requests are supported with huge subsidies and guarantees. Take them away and see how FREE their electrons really are.
Paul Homewood again? Can you be more stupid? Don’t answer that as we know you will.
covid, there is no war. the long term value of fossil fuels is very limited. i will continue to extract what limited value i can from them until the time comes when they are no longer useful to me. at which point i will eliminate them from consideration. i am not being coy about this. they hold the same long term value to me as a slide rule. but i can extract a little more from them in the near term. you just don’t like the fact that i am pissing on you as i flush you down the toilet. i get some satisfaction from that fact.
Something important (to me) which I wish to communicate to one individual (who I choose not to name) here on the blog
I usually don’t get emotional if I am not drinking, I mean it’s common for me to get angry etc. but if I am not drinking it’s rare for me to get emotional in the “touched” way or “moved” way, like girl crying at the romantic movie kind of thing. But I want to say I found a channel on Youtube just now, hosted by someone who frequents this blog shall we say. And I found some post made on YT from about 8 months ago that gave me a lump in my throat and I found moving. And I had never seen “this side of” this person here before. I hope they read this and know who/what I am referring to, and I want to say you are so cool for doing that, and it really moved me in a way I am not normally moved when not “tossing a few back”. I hope God blesses you for that. And I hope you do it more and often when you are willing and able, even if you choose not to post it online.
That’s it for today’s episode of “Speaking In Ciphers”
P.S. Try some Dylan also next time to compliment the Pine Ridge Boys.
JohnH in his infinite stupidity decided to take that great UAW success getting COLAs back to attack the Democrats for not indexing the minimum wage back in 2009. Of course little Jonny boy never understood the auto worker deal in the 1st place but Kevin Drum has been the hard work little Jonny boy refuses to do:
https://jabberwocking.com/is-the-new-uaw-contract-really-that-great/
‘Is the new UAW contract really that great?’
Maybe not Kevin explains as the nominal wage increases agreed to puts real wages back to 2019 levels perhaps by 2025. Yep – examining inflation adjusted wages has been little Jonny boy’s forte.
https://menafn.com/1107328312/Israel-Awards-Six-Licenses-For-Natural-Gas-Exploration?fbclid=IwAR37vM8Q5XXsLoqT4PZ4XWhTSsRLLBgRLpABPDqzrZ8DcQH2ADT0B_dsbNE
Israel Awards Six Licenses For Natural Gas Exploration
I get this is big economic news but I have to honor the fact my daughter brought this to my attention in her very brave Facebook posts asking us to respect the rights of the Palestinian people. Maybe the money from the deals can rebuild the West Bank and Gaza free of influence from Hama and from the current rightwing government of Israel.
Coach Bobby Knight passes away.
I have a lot of mixed feelings about Bobby Knight. He had many bad traits. But here are two great things I will say about the man. He gave/raised a lot of money for public libraries, including about $300,000 for the Texas Tech Library. And he sung the praises of the very underrated basketball Coach named Abe Lemons. Those are two great things I can say about Bobby Knight.
when I was younger, I admired bobby knight as a great coach. it was only as I matured and got older that I realized just how flawed of an individual he was. he was a bully. did he do some great things? sure. he motivated and influenced a generation of kids. but his temper and his grudges were fatal flaws. if somebody told me my child turned out like bobby knight, I would feel sad that I let him down. he is a hall of fame basketball coach. he is not a hero.
Martin Wolf, Financial Times: “The economic consequences of the Israel-Hamas war…The best way to think about this is to emphasise the uncertainty. The great probability is that the conflict will be contained. If so, the economic effects will stay insignificant. But it is possible that it will spread and so become far more serious. Civil unrest might also force governments in the region to consider embargoes. Hamas might wish the region to be aflame. But that is certainly not going to be in the interests of the billions of people who want to get on with their lives as best they can. It is up to policymakers in the region and outside to avoid the sorts of mistakes that have proved devastating in the past.” https://www.ft.com/content/effaa755-3379-42f5-8d54-91ca66c1a0a7?segmentId=b385c2ad-87ed-d8ff-aaec-0f8435cd42d9
It’s truly amazing how much economic analysis, mostly of the “Russia is doomed” variety, was published in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and how little has been published since the start of the latest crisis in the Middle East. Judging by the poor quality of the forecasts of the impact on the Russian economy, where some even predicted a 30% drop in Russian GDP, are any indication, maybe it’s just as well that economists stick to subjects they know something about this time around.
OK – we get you will not be happy until over half of the Ukrainian population is murdered. So I guess you are also celebrating all the blood shed in Gaza. That’s our sick little troll,
Unlike Gaza civilian “collateral damage” aka deaths is tiny by western standards.
While no one is preventing people from leaving the Kiev area.
Glad to see you taking the moral high road. As long as Ukrainians have the opportunity to surrender their homes, their neighbors and friends, their nation and nationality, no.problem? Good to know where you stand.
How many Palestinian children have US paid Israel to kill the past 4 weeks?
When does US stop financing child slaughter?
Put Gazans where you have Ukraineians and you get the US supporting opposing viewpoints in the latest “wars”.
And Russia instead of Israel!
I do not think Putin treats Kiev or Lviv like a Palestinian (75 years) refugee camp aka free fire zone.
“some even predicted a 30% drop in Russian GDP”. I never said this. Dr. Chinn never said this. Oh wait – little Jonny boy makes up $hit as he goes. But what’s new?
Has pgl actually fact checked this claim? pgl makes a lot of claims that are misrepresentations, misinterpretations, or outright lies.
JohnH: As far as I can tell, your ability to handle and interpret data is at the low end of the spectrum, insofar as comments on this blog go.
I do not lie. But I do get a laugh at how you deny what you have said. Hey I would too if I said as many incredibly dumb things that you have.
I have suggested before that you trying growing up but I’m told by your own mother that little Jonny is incapable of doing so.
You made a claim that you cannot back up. I asked you to back it up and you cannot. So you lied. And you ask me if I checked this claim? Come on Jonny boy – we get that you are stupid but DAMN!
OK, JH: as we’ve witnessed you babble on and on about pointless, futile, needless wars, I’ve composed a sentence for you to post: “Russia can reduce—and eliminate—the carnage in Ukraine by ceasing all ground and air operations as soon as possible.”
Nothing additional is required. Such a statement will unfork your tongue and show your sincerity. Such action by Russia cannot but help restore peace and improve the affected European and Asian economies.
Not necessary to add any historical connections or condemnations concerning past transgressions by western countries. Just a statement for here and now will do.
I’ve shown you a path. Why do I doubt you lack the will—and willingness—to follow it?
The productivity report is out. Unit labor costs fell in Q3, due to a slower pace of gain in labor compensation and a rise in productivity. The spike in unit labor costs after the pandemic is proving transitory. The Fed should take note.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1aUk5
One thing which jumps out from the picture is the shift from steady, similar performance across the four series prior to the Covid recession to the wobbly performance after the recession. The composition of employment is a big driver of that shift, as are scarcity of inputs and swings in demand.
Take a look at non-labor payments, which have recently risen fastest among the four series. Here is what is counted in non-labor payments, copied from the footnotes of the latest productiviy report tables:
“Unit nonlabor payments include profits, consumption of fixed capital, taxes on production and imports less subsidies, net interest and miscellaneous payments, business current transfer payments, rental income of persons, and the current surplus of government enterprises.”
Profits. Net interest. Transfer payments. These are all the result of managerial decisions, not labor. Two of then are sensitive to interest rates. Perhaps transfer payments are, as well. pgl? But we know profits were strong despite the early rise in interest rates, and have been cooling more recently.
What a hoot! Tricky Ducky covering for obscene profit margins yet again!
Fact is that profits margins in 2Q23 are still among the highest half dozen recorded EVER, which is consistent with non-labor payments spiking (non-labor payments include profits). Exactly what is the Fed supposed to do about that?
Well, despite all the denial about Corporate America contributing to price inflation, evidence is mounting, specifically in apartment rentals, a major component of the CPI.
ProPublica: “Rent Going Up? One Company’s Algorithm Could Be Why…Apartment rents had recently shot up by as much as 14.5%, he said in a video touting the company’s services. Turning to his colleague, Parsons asked: What role had the software played?
“I think it’s driving it, quite honestly,” answered Andrew Bowen, another RealPage executive. “As a property manager, very few of us would be willing to actually raise rents double digits within a single month by doing it manually.”
The celebratory remarks were more than swagger. For years, RealPage has sold software that uses data analytics to suggest daily prices for open units.”
https://www.propublica.org/article/yieldstar-rent-increase-realpage-rent
Meanwhile the DOJ is “thinking about” intervening in a DC lawsuit against price gouging landlords. IOW DOJ is just kicking the can down the road…
Furthermore, “Home Sellers Win $1.8 Billion After Jury Finds Conspiracy Among Realtors”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/31/realestate/nar-antitrust-lawsuit.html
Yet according to those who remained unconvinced because it’s in their interest to remain unconvinced, Corporate America does not drive price inflation!
Are we back to this? Just as you deny you cheered the temporary fall in real GDI, you still deny that during this period real compensation rose while reported real profits fell. Are you so damn incompetent that you never consult what the BEA reports on factor income? OK!
Johnny? Another tantrum? I must really have gotten under your skin by repeatedly exposing your failures.
Tell me how I’m “covering” by telling the objective truth. What I wrote was that:
– Non-labor unit payments have risen faster than the other series in included in a graph.
– Profit is included in non-labor unit payments.
– Profit rose very rapidly in the post-recession period.
– Profits have been cooling.
Am I covering for profits by pointing that profits have risen rapidly? Am I covering for profits by poi ting out that the rise has cooled? Am I covering for profits by noting that they are included in non-labor unit payments?
And, by the way, I’ve already commented here about RealPage. Is that how I’m “covering” for profits?
I’ve also cite the court ruling against the National Association of Realtors for price fixing, the DOJ’s case against a firm which fosters price collusion among meat producers, and an anti-monopoly case against Google. So here you are, offering another of your reliably mistaken opinions, this time that DOJ won’t act against price fixing in the rental market. Based in what? Under Biden, Justice has been more aggressive in anti-trust matters than any administration in decades.
So Johnny, tell us, what evidence do you have for anything you’ve puked onto the screen? Not some link that you pretend is a devastating retort – real evidence. Come on. It would be a first. Show evidence that I’m “covering” form profits. Tell us how linking to a ProPublica report about something I HAD ALREADY COMMENTED ON means I’m “covering” for profits. Just this ine time, Johnny, show real evidence.
“Just this ine time, Johnny, show real evidence.”
Note when I challenged Jonny boy to show who on earth predicted a 30% drop in Russia’s real GDP, this turd suggested I back up MY claim? No – Jonny lies 24/7 but when called on his lies, he resorts to pathetically dumb claims that we are the liars. Then again – I have suggested little Jonny boy is mentally retarded so hey!
Right now we are setting up for letting the GOP display itself as the most extreme and incompetent they have ever been. Lots of chaos, government shut downs complete and utter dysfunction – and Biden ruling by executive actions. In 12 months anybody who is not a right wing extremist nutcase (brainwashed by their church and Fox to think the end is near) will recognize that they cannot vote for a GOP candidate if they want a functional government.
In the mean time the democrats can have fun digging up insane statements from Speaker Johnson and his wife’s past. Given that they voted for him as speaker, the less right wing GOP representatives would have a hard time distancing themselves from the content of those statements.
The only way out of that is if the speaker allows for votes on amendments – and a handful of GOP house members decide that they are better off turning the right wing nut base legislation into moderate democrat legislation via amendments.
Ivan You overestimate the intelligence of many voters. The GOP is very skilled at identifying low information voters and convincing them that the economy is bad, crime is rising, unemployment is at record levels, our military is weak, Biden is a socialist, climate change is a hoax, hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin cure COVID, vaccines have Bill Gates manufactured microchips, pizzagate is real, cutting taxes reduces the deficit, blah, blah, blah. Sadly, it works. Voters are nitwits.
Low information (nitwit) voters is the reason that a party which so exclusively serve the top 1% can win any elections anywhere – and it has been for many decades. However, politics is always a war of counter information and counter scares – often aimed as much at getting people to vote or not as at who they vote for when they get there. We need something to scare some of the leftist nitwits who want to stay home because Biden support Israel or didn’t do X, Y, Z etc. We also have to get some political ammo aimed at the “they all do the same, so let me vote for lower taxes” low info centrist voters.
That was fast. The trial, I mean. The investigation is over a decade old:
https://www.axios.com/2023/10/31/nar-lawsuit-brokers-fees-verdict-sitzer-burnett
National Association of Realtors – busted!
Wait – wait. Read how little Jonny boy accused you of supporting NAR in
JohnH
November 2, 2023 at 5:01 pm
Yea – little Jonny boy is having his childish emotional rants over and over.
Yes – and recognizing the whole setup in selling homes as a predatory monopoly takes less than a minute.
Sometimes, iti isn’t consumers who seek protection from price manipulation:
https://www.iowacorn.org/about/news/icga-supports-transparency-of-fertilizer-industry
This ought to be fun. Iowa farmers are a key demographic for presidential primary candidates. Fertilizer makers are big, well organized, and major users of natural gas. Who has popcorn?
““Over recent years, input costs for farmers have gone up again and again and were crucial topics at grassroots events led by ICGA,” said Jolene Riessen, a farmer from Ida Grove and Iowa Corn Growers Association President. “This assessment would provide transparency of the fertilizer market and help us understand why these increases in price are reoccurring.”
Little CoRev fancies himself as an expert on agricultural economics and a supporter of farmers. But not a single word on this topic from little CoRev. I guess the Koch brothers have paid him off to ignore the Koch owned fertilizer companies while they insist little CoRev spews his disinformation for Big Oil.
No reference, therefore another meaningless lying comment from PGL!
So sad.
Yes monopoly and oligopoly are popular on Wall Street and nowhere else. Predatory capitalism beware.
Ooh. Bankman is fried. Guilty of seven counts of conspiracy and fraud.
Is this where we start the ironic funeral music??? (hardee har har)
Can’t wait to hear the sentence. I wonder whether the judge will explicitly address B-F’s tendency to ignore court orders. That seems to me reason for actual incarceration, instead of an ankle bracelet and a prohibition against engaging in finance.
“Contrition” is built into our justice system. Arrogance is risky.
Bohdan Kucheriavyi of Seeking is doing a pity party for Ford shareholders. Oh wow paying a decent wage may cut into those shareholder dividend check. Boo hoo.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/ford-uaw-deal-is-a-disaster-for-shareholders/ar-AA1jhvr4?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=42b71872514540adbe3f1bf66415a410&ei=14
There you go again, taking the side of capitalists over labor. Johnny’s gonna come after you!
Kevin Drum has a post noting that the real wages of UAW under this deal will only reach where they were 5 years ago. I noted Kevin’s post and you would have thought little Jonny boy would have seized on what Kevin wrote. But nope – this moron only real comment was his usual pointless attack on Obama for not going for indexation of the Federal minimum wage back in 2009. Of course had they done so, the wage floor would be only $10.50 as opposed to some of the smart people applauding Hillary’s rather conservative $12 floor. I guess a real decision of the economics was just too much for little Jonny boy to comprehend.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 150,000 in October, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, government, and social assistance. Employment declined in manufacturing due to strike activity.
But wait – the household survey says employment fell by 348 thousand. Expect another dishonest rant from Lawrence Kudlow suggesting this household survey is the more accurate measure. And of course JohnH and Princeton Steve will echo Kudlow’s BS!
Here are a couple of series from the jobs report, the index of aggregate hours and the index of weekly payrolls:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1aWxW
Both are trending lower, consistent with the cooling in the labor market. The index of payrolls is a rough indicator of incomes for those who earn hourly wages – still rising in October, but not by much. The index of hours fell, despite 150,000 new jobs.
The suggestion of falling aggregate hours while job gains are strong is that new hires are taking the strain off of existing workers – firms are hring because they are understaffed. That’s consistent with the decline in weekly hours:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1aWzg
The employment report, while objectively healthy, included softer-than-median-estmate results for job gains, the jobless rate and wages. Service sector survey results were also positive, but less so than expected.
As a result, pricing for the fed funds rate in December of next year has shifted from a split between cuts of 75 basis points and 100 bps yesterday to centering on cuts of 100 bps today. Ten-year Treasury yield is down about 11 bps. S&P500 up 1%. The power of only kinda good news, in all its glory.
It should also be noted that the household survey (for whatever it’s worth) suggested a decline in employment.
The strike activities would probably have to be taken out of the data if we want to look at trend. So how big of a jump up do we expect in the next release simply from strikers going back to work (and suppliers having to get more workers).
https://www.alternet.org/lawmakers-letting-tuberville-hold-hostage/
Conservative Charlies Sykes calling Tuberville the dumbest member of the Senate. Yep!
Trump’s defense of how he inflated the value of his assets in order to get low interest rate loans goes like this. We repaid those loans so no harm no foul. Never mind the fact that Trump had six bankruptcies with respect to his shady business dealings in New Jersey.
I wish I had the details of the prosecutor’s calculation of lost interest but I can imagine it goes like this. Suppose a business takes out a $1 billion five-year loan at the beginning of 2017 when interest rates on 5-year government bonds = 2%. If everyone knew the business was worth only $500 million, the borrower would be lucky to get a BB credit rating which would translate into a 5% interest rate or $500 million per year in interest expenses. But supposed Don Jr. and retarded Eric lied to their valuation expert so he would claim the business was with $1.5 billion. The credit rating might then be A so the interest rate would be closer to 3%. So interest expenses would be only $30 million per year. Clearly the lenders were cheated out of $20 million per year.
One would think people who graduated from Wharton would get this simple logic. But Don Jr. keeps smiling saying he relied on the experts who he lied to while his retarded younger brother has been acting like daddy throwing temper tantrums.
@ pgl
I’m having a drinky now, so if I messed things up forgive me please (My father told me never to drink, and if he saw me now would dis-own me as his son… oh well), Anywayz…….. doesn’t this make Wharton look VERY bad now??? Who else got through Wharton to do this kind of “math”??
the fraud is worse, because what it means is that the banks risk profile is actually worse than it really was. so there is a second order effect in that the bank itself is conducting its business fraudulently, issuing bonds that are not accurately reflecting its risk ratings.
not only that, trump is also taking capital away from another business that may be more sound and less risky. thus he is also damaging those business’s ability to prosper and grow. just selfish behavior, in addition to being illegal.
I went back to Table 1.10. Gross Domestic Income by Type of Income from the BEA taking the nominal figures from 2022QII to 2023QII (their profits numbers for the last quarter are not yet in) and inflation adjusting them with the GDP deflator.
I did so in light of JohnH’s ever evolving LIES about this data. Sure real GDI fell for the last quarter of 2022 but it had been rising before that and rose since that. Over the full year, real GDI managed to increase by 0.2% which of course is not great.
Now Jonny boy keeps chirping this is bad news for real labor compensation but profits, interest, and rents (capital income) has been soaring. It seems however real labor compensation over this period ROSE by over 3%. Real capital income FELL by almost 7.4%.
Now we get little Jonny boy never learned to do real research and the data from the BEA are all corporate lies. So little Jonny boy throws tantrums accusing Macroduck of being a corporate lackey and accusing me of lying. But facts are facts unless little Jonny boy wants to tell us that BEA is lying.