Alternative Estimates of Chinese Q3 GDP Growth

The Fernald-Hsu-Spiegel China Cyclical Activity Tracker (CCAT) indicates Q3 growth 0.26 standard deviation below trend.

Figure 1: GDP y/y growth in standard deviations below trend (blue), CCAT (tan), Li Keqiang index (green), imports (red). Source: CCAT/SF Fed, accessed 11/8/2023.

Detrended GDP growth is approximately 2.4%, so a below trend reading of 0.26 is 0.62%; since estimated trend growth is 5.07% in Q3, then implied Q3 growth is 4.45%, somewhat below the 4.9% according to official NBS figures. Interestingly, the Li Keqiang index (first principal component of indicators) implies about the same growth rate. In both cases, the gap between official and alternatives are much larger in Q2.

BOFIT’s alternative calculations for Q3 average 3.43%, with a high/low range of 5.11%/2.08%.





One thought on “Alternative Estimates of Chinese Q3 GDP Growth

  1. Moses Herzog

    People (including economics professionals) can say the Li Keqiang index is “antiquated”. And maybe in purely philosophical terms it is. And yet looking at the graph above and how the green line mostly travels the middle road between the other lines (yes, just “eyeballing” it) I still can’t help but respect Li Keqiang, and enjoy seeing the number quoted. He was a politician who forfeited his career for love of his nation and love of his compatriots. How many Chinese (or even American) career politicians can claim that?? I hope he is remembered, as I truly feel a genuine fondness for the man.

    OK you probably weren’t Christian Mr Li, but I hope “Saint Peter” and Jesus at least give you “the once over glance”.

    I have moments of internal feelings of vexation. Thinking of all the great Chinese people I met who were super-kind souls~~but agnostic. But how does God/Jesus judge those with extremely kind and loving hearts who were never EXPOSED to Christianity?? I hope the context of the things they were exposed to (or rather, NOT exposed to) gets consideration at “The Pearly Gates”.

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