Sentiment down 46%, Confidence down 25% Relative to Pandemic Eve

And sentiment down 21% relative to Biden’s start, confidence up 13%.

Figure 1: University of Michigan Sentiment Index (blue), and Conference Board Confidence Index (tan). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: University of Michigan via FRED, Conference Board via, and NBER. 

Why do the two series differs? As shown in this post, in a mechanical sense, it’s the different weights associated with inflation and unemployment, with the Conference Board series putting greater weight on unemployment.