Some Hate Crimes, over Time

Figure 1: Race based hate crimes (ex-vs.-white) (blue, left log scale), and against Asians (purple, right log scale). Source: FBI [1], [2]

Surge in incidents starting in 2017. I let others interpret.


46 thoughts on “Some Hate Crimes, over Time

  1. Ivan

    It is pretty clear that Trump and his xenophobic rhetoric put gasoline on the fire. His blaming Covid on China, made it much worse. At least the Covid driven hate against asian people seem to be notably lowered. However, xenophobia in general will take a long time to fall back down. When you plant in peoples mind that the “other” group is to blame for their pain; that narrative will often stay as long as the pain.

    1. Moses Herzog

      @ Ivan
      “Wet markets” in South China were where the Covid virus was born, and in a very self-scarring way, China has to face this, and it’s hard. I love China and the Chinese people, and that part of it is hard. But EVERY country has these problems. Did a homosexual white male bring AIDS from Africa to America?? Where it then spread like wildfire in San Fran to other places?? We don’t know. How many American white trash used the toilet and then didn’t wash their hands?? I know on my Mom’s white trash side of the family, I heard them (heard them put their hand under the faucet in 2 seconds and then pretend they used soap??) These people are (ALL races) all over the Earth man, and we have to face it and try to “educate them” and give them knowledge. NO doubt, when you teach them MAGA people apply their hands over their ears, but we have to TRY to teach them and keep “plodding on”

  2. CoRev

    Where do we put this data on that scale? Antisemitic incidents in the US are at the highest level recorded since the 1970s
    “The incidents including assault, vandalism and harassment increased by more than a third in just one year and reached nearly 3,700 cases in 2022, a new ADL report published Thursday found. ”

    “Incidents increased in each of the major Audit categories: antisemitic harassment increased 29% to 2,298; antisemitic vandalism increased 51% to 1,288 and antisemitic assaults increased 26% to 111. The vast majority of antisemitic assaults (107 out of 111) were perpetrated without the use of a deadly weapon. There was one fatality. Notably, visibly Orthodox Jews were targeted in 53% of the assault incidents nationally. This year, no assaults perpetrated against the Jewish community resulted in mass causalities.” YET! we look at the map of incidences:

    We find that ~2200 of those anti-Semitic incidences occurred in BLUE states. I fear breaking these numbers down to BLUE cities would make the pattern even worse. That’s not to confuse the incidences when compared to WORLD-WIDE occurrences.

    1. pgl

      Hey CoRev – I trust you remember Robert Gregory Bowers and what he did in Pittsburgh. Weren’t you the one blaming the liberal Jews in Squirrel Hill for this massacre. Or maybe that was Econned. I get the two of you confused.

    2. Menzie Chinn Post author

      CoRev: Well, if I thought about it, and tabulated the geographical concentration of anti-Asian crimes, I might suspect that they would have a higher density where Asians reside, which happens to be in blue states. You can’t hit an “X” person when there is no “X” person near you to hit.

      Man, you are dumb.

      1. pgl

        Queens is a very diverse borough. Alas Queens has a lot of people like CoRev who like to scare innocent people on the subway. But of course that is because we have a black mayor I guess.

      2. CoRev

        Menzie, why the antagonism? Simply stating the numbers does not indicate: “… there is no “X” person near you to hit.” in the red states/locales. Perhaps a per capita look at the data is needed, but that is not what you nor I presented.

        Man, are you desperate when making weak point.

        1. pgl

          “Perhaps a per capita look at the data is needed”

          Dr. Chinn said you were dumb but even a moron would know this line is ducking his point.

    3. Noneconomist

      Is the Fool aware there are more Asians in Los Angeles, SanFrancisco, and Seattle than there are in Oklahoma City, Little Rock, and Chattanooga?

    4. Macroduck

      Nice try, but this is merely a transparent attempt to lie with numbers. To do what you are trying to do – link a political party to hate crimes – we’d need to tabulate crimes per capita. Blue states tend to be more populous than Red states. There is more of everything – except livestock and voter suppression – in highly populated states than in thinly populated states.

      We should also give thought to how many Jews live in various states; it’s tough to assault someone who lives a thousand miles away. Bias crimes are just less likely in homogeneous populations than in diverse populations.

      Less than 1% of Wyoming’s 579,000 residents are Jewish

      Roughly 7% of New York’s 19.8 million residents are Jewish.

      You’re treating Wyoming and New York as if they are the same. This crude pretense that Democrats are more anti-Semitic (sic) than Republicans is simply wrong. Trying to get away with this kind of trick here, where some of us can actually think and do math, is dumb.

      By the way, “anti-Semitic” should reasonably refer to Palestinians, as well as Jews. And to Jordanians and to all Arabs. “Semitic” simply means one is descended from Shem. Strictly speaking, the JDL tallies only anti-Jewish incidents.

      1. pgl

        It’s more than per capita. The composition of the population matters. Please do not give our racist idiot absurd openings.

      2. CoRev

        McQuack, thank you for a considered response, instead of the emotionalism so far shown.

        Of interest is the the way the FBI lists hate crimes. A subcategory is:
        “A total of 1,590 incidents related to religion were reported; the largest categories of religion included:

        Anti-Jewish incidents: 51.4% of religion-related incidents

        Anti-Islamic incidents: 9.6%
        So I stand corrected in the term.

        As to the more general terms hate crimes FBI says this:
        “Victims of Hate Crime Incidents

        Over 10,500 single-bias incidents involved 12,411 victims.
        A percent distribution of victims by bias type shows that
        64.5% of victims were targeted because of the offenders’ race/ethnicity/ancestry bias,
        15.9% were targeted because of the offenders’ sexual-orientation bias,
        14.1% were targeted because of the offenders’ religious bias, …”

        If you want to go deeper in the data, be my guest. I was just pointing out the obvious weakness/ problems with the high level look being presented. Where, why, how and when are important, but not yet discussed in any detail.

        As the author says: ” I let others interpret.” Yet, when an interpretation is presented…?

          1. pgl

            I might note Brooklyn has twice the population as Salt Lake City. So on CoRev’s per capita basis there are twice as many synagogues per capita in Brooklyn than in Salt Lake City. Then again I’ve been to Salt Lake City and I strongly prefer Brooklyn!

        1. Noneconomist

          More interpretation needed.
          In Utah, the 11th largest state (about 85,000 sq.m) there are an estimated 5,000 Jews in a population of 3.4 million. There are 13 synagogues in the entire state (if my googling was accurate).
          In Brooklyn (70 sq.m) there are an estimated 560,000 Jews in a population of 2.7 million.
          Interpret. Please.

          1. Noneconomist

            Even more for our intrepid interpreter to ponder.
            In 2020, Trump got 6.06 million votes in California, 1.15 million in LA County alone. Doubly interesting because he got more votes in LA county than he did in the entire state of Oklahoma.
            If you combine Trump’s vote totals in Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Kansas, Montana, Idaho,Wyoming, and Utah, you total about 6.4 million votes. Remove Montana (about 343,000) and you have nine STATES that equal Trump’s vote total in California.
            So, oh great interpreter, there are literally plenty in California who don’t fit the stereotypical blue profile you failed miserably to paint.
            Interpret, please.

  3. Econned

    Menzie Chinn,
    Could the increase in 2017 be due to a small portion of libs upset that Hillary Clinton lost the presidential election? I read a study suggesting counties with Trump rallies experienced higher rates of violence than surrounding areas. Maybe these libs were mad Trump was in town and then in 2017 mad that the deplorables won? Maybe these libs were mad Obama left the Oval Office – I liked the guy but I don’t think it’s a call to violence… we need peaceful transitions. On the other hand, maybe a small portion of Trump’s MAGA base felt more empowered to be the deplorables they were labeled to be? That this nation’s set of laws ultimately supported their preferred candidate for the executive branch of gooberment. Or maybe it’s none of the above. It’s also important to remember 2017 was the year that Taylor Swift released ‘Reputation’ and the 1st year in this time series that the fed funds rate exceeded 1%. My interpretation is that we need more data to make any definitive claims regarding causal factors.

    My guess regarding the surge in 2020 is it’s mostly COVID-related xenophobia.

      1. pgl

        “The recent high-profile cases of hate crimes in the U.S., especially those targeting Asian Americans, have raised concerns about their risk of victimization. Following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, intimations—and even accusations—that the novel coronavirus is an “Asian” or “Chinese” virus have been linked to anti-Asian American hate crime, potentially leaving members of this group not only fearful of being victimized but also at risk for victimization. According to the Stop AAPI Hate Center, nearly 1900 hate crimes against Asian Americans were reported by victims, and around 69% of cases were related to verbal harassment, including being called the “Chinese Coronavirus.”

        Yea it was Hillary that said such vile things – at least in little Econned’s world.

      2. Econned

        Menzie Chinn,
        I don’t find that study convincing. It lacks controls and the regression looks to be impacted by outliers in the outer period. Others have shown non-US increases in anti-Asian hate crimes. But, maybe it’s Trump all the way down??? As I stated in the post you linked to, Trump’s rhetoric likely exacerbated this hate but xenophobia is pretty widespread – the virus was the proximate cause and fitting a line on the week “Kung flu” was introduced during the pandemic isn’t convincing. As you previously acknowledged, causality is difficult to impute. So, yes, “maybe”… or, maybe not?

        1. Menzie Chinn Post author

          Econned: Yes, maybe, maybe not. The study at least tackled the question, while you merely speculated. So at least the study authors tried something. By the way, event studies – depending on the window – often don’t have controls.

          1. Econned

            Menzie Chinn,
            The study didn’t tackle the question – it attempted a tackle and missed the mark. I’m all for analysis and data (see my first comment) but it takes a fool to think a poorly formed study is required to assess the issue of rising anti-Asian hate during the onset of the pandemic. A literal (albeit likely unaware and biased) fool.

            It’s interesting your take is now to deride my “speculation” as your chosen approach here was to just post an graph and, I quote, “let others interpret”. Your ego is yet again obscuring your already damaged credibility.

            The lack of controls – depending on the study – often makes event studies relatively worthless (aside for gaining someone a publication and an all-important millimeter closer to tenure). It’s not a feature, it’s a bug.

        2. pgl

          Do you really think anyone cares what you think? Like you have done a careful analysis wearing your cute little MAGA hat.

          ” Others have shown non-US increases in anti-Asian hate crimes …”

          Others? Once again Econned makes a bogus claim linking to nothing – nothing at all. Oh wait – Econned is incapable of providing links or proper citations. Go figure.

      3. pgl

        Steven Kopits
        January 1, 2021 at 3:59 pm

        Ah yes – little Stevie who doubted Puerto Ricans suffered during Hurrican Maria!

    1. pgl

      “For the last 10 years, the “Convention of States” movement has sought to remake the Constitution and force a tea party vision of the framers’ intent upon America. This group wants to wholesale rewrite wide swaths of the U.S. Constitution in one fell swoop. In the process, they hope to do away with regulatory agencies like the FDA and the CDC, virtually eliminate the federal government’s ability to borrow money, and empower state legislatures to override federal law.”

      The modern day version of Newt Gingrich.

  4. pgl

    A bit off topic but it seems the union movement in Sweden is taking on Elon Musk:

    Elon Musk vs. Sweden’s Working Class
    The strike against Tesla in Sweden challenges the electric vehicle maker’s core business model.

    Kevin Drum noted this. His next blog post noted the rise in EV sales in the US. No mention whether these sales came from union shops in the US, non-union ships in the US, or from China

    We know where Donald Trump stands – he is opposed to US production especially the workers are unionized.

  5. pgl

    A serious topic which has already been trivialized by two of our Usual Suspects – neither of which has either a soul or an ounce of integrity.

  6. pgl

    Ivan let us know about this from Bill McBride:

    By 2100, the total population in the middle series is projected to reach 366 million compared to the projection for the high-immigration scenario, which puts the population at 435 million. The population for the middle series increases to a peak at 370 million in 2080 and then begins to decline, dropping to 366 million in 2100. The high-immigration scenario increases every year and is projected to reach 435 million by 2100.

    The low-immigration scenario is projected to peak at around 346 million in 2043 and decline thereafter, dropping to 319 million in 2100.

    Though largely illustrative, the zero-immigration scenario projects that population declines would start in 2024 in the complete absence of foreign-born immigration. The population in this scenario is projected to be 226 million in 2100, roughly 107 million lower than the 2022 estimate.

    That’s from Census. I understand that CoRev and Econned are teaming with Trump to push the zero immigration scenario. MAGA.

    1. Macroduck

      In absolute terms, there are more people on the move now, within and between countries, ever before, the result of climate change and organized violence. We can hope for a reduction in violence, but climate change will continue for some decades, even if we behave responsibly toward the environment – not the current plan.

      So we might want to pay particular attention to the high-immigration scenario. And in doing so, we might want to stop pretending that fences, inhumanity and violation of Constitutional rights are the optimal set of immigration policies. Political outrage-mongers are not helping.

      1. pgl

        With all the concern of Republicans like Nikki Lightweight over the solvency of Social Security – one might think they would be for the high immigration scenario. But no – Ms. MAGA in 5 inch heels wants no immigration.

  7. ltr

    June 27, 2023

    Caught in the crossfire: Fears of Chinese–American scientists
    By Yu Xie, Xihong Lin, Ju Li and Junming Huang


    Our study reveals the widespread fear among scientists of Chinese descent in the United States arising from conducting routine research and academic activities. If this fear is not alleviated, there are significant risks of underutilization of scientific talent as well as losing scientific talent to China and other countries. Addressing the fear of US-based scientists of Chinese descent and making the American academic environment welcoming and attractive to all will help retain and attract scientific talent and strengthen the US global leadership in science and technology in the long run.


    The US global leadership in science and technology has greatly benefitted from immigrants from other countries, most notably from China in the recent decades. However, feeling the pressure of potential federal investigations since the 2018 launch of the China Initiative, scientists of Chinese descent in the United States now face higher incentives to leave the United States and lower incentives to apply for federal grants. Analyzing data pertaining to institutional affiliations of more than 200 million scientific papers, we find a steady increase in the return migration of scientists of Chinese descent from the United States to China. We also conducted a survey of scientists of Chinese descent employed by US universities in tenured or tenure-track positions (n = 1,304), with results revealing general feelings of fear and anxiety that lead them to consider leaving the United States and/or stop applying for federal grants. If the situation is not corrected, American science will likely suffer the loss of scientific talent to China and other countries.

    1. Macroduck

      How many times are your masters going to insist that you post this?

      How many times will you ignore questions about treatment of Chinese and non-Chinese academics alike in China? If Chinese academics in the U.S. are concerned about government scutiny, how much more are academics of every stripe concerned about China’s surveillance state and Xi’s growing paranoia?

  8. ltr

    June 27, 2023

    Caught in the crossfire: Fears of Chinese–American scientists
    By Yu Xie, Xihong Lin, Ju Li and Junming Huang

    Psychological Indicators *

    1) Thirty-five percent of respondents feel unwelcome in the United States
    2) Seventy-two percent do not feel safe as an academic researcher
    3) Forty-two percent are fearful of conducting research
    4) Sixty-five percent are worried about collaborations with China
    5) Eighty-six percent perceive that it is harder to recruit top international students now compared to 5 years ago


  9. ltr

    Congress passed and President Obama signed the Wolf Amendment in April 2011, preventing Chinese scientists from working on space exploration programs with NASA. President Obama in October 2011 directed American foreign policy to a pivot to the East or to China, a direction that would become China containment policy. President Trump in May 2018 launched a trade attack on China, an attack designed to undermine Chinese manufacturing development. President Biden from the beginning turned Trump’s China attacks tougher:

    October 16, 2023

    The Strange Decline of the Pax Americana
    By Paul Krugman

    Biden has taken a remarkably hard line on Chinese technology. Where Trump huffed and puffed ineffectually against Chinese trade surpluses (which were never the problem), Biden has imposed sanctions that the Center for Strategic and International Studies calls a “policy of actively strangling large segments of the Chinese technology industry — strangling with an intent to kill.”

    Attacks against China have been led by Democratic and Republican officials for years, and the attacks have been relentless. The attacks have been echoed and encouraged in the most influential press and echoed by think tankers and academics….

    1. Macroduck

      Are non-ethnic-Chinese scientists allowed to work in China’s space program? To attend the best universities? To hold high political office? To run major businesses?

      When the regime you serve reaches the level of openness and fairness achieved in western democracies, you’ll have at room to criticize. Till then, you’re merely a paid shill, a low-class hypocrite.

  10. ltr

    January 27, 2019

    Duke University Apologizes Over Professor’s Email Asking Chinese Students to Speak English
    By Sarah Mervosh

    Duke University has apologized after a professor cautioned international students against speaking Chinese on campus and urged them to speak English instead.

    The professor, Megan Neely, issued the caution in an email on Friday. Professor Neely has since asked to step down from her role as director of graduate studies in the medical school’s biostatistics master’s program, the dean of Duke’s medical school, Dr. Mary E. Klotman, said in a letter to students on Saturday.

    Professor Neely did not respond to email requests for comment on Sunday. A university spokesman confirmed that she remained on the faculty as an assistant professor of biostatistics and bioinformatics.

    Professor Neely said in the email that two faculty members had come to her office complaining about students speaking Chinese “very loudly” in the student lounge and study areas. The faculty members wanted to identify the students and write down their names, she said, in case the students sought to work with them in the future.

    “They were disappointed that these students were not taking the opportunity to improve their English and were being so impolite as to have a conversation that not everyone on the floor could understand,” Professor Neely wrote in the email. “To international students, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE keep these unintended consequences in mind when you choose to speak Chinese in the building.” …

  11. ltr

    November 3, 2023

    In a Worldwide War of Words, Russia, China and Iran Back Hamas
    Officials and researchers say the deluge of online propaganda and disinformation is larger than anything seen before.
    By Steven Lee Myers and Sheera Frenkel

    [ China always, always opposes terrorism.

    China of course has been a firm friend of Israel for decades as well as an advocate and supporter of Jews from the 1930s and 1940s. There are 2 museums in China memorializing Jewish communities. The Shoah is remembered each year in China. The founder of the People’s Liberation Army Medical Corp was a European Jewish physician who found refuge in China during the Holocaust and who is remembered with a Chinese statue. China just built a rail line in Tel Aviv, a port in Haifa, a pumped storage electricity generator.

    The New York Times article is shocking calumny, but was echoed in the Times, and gives a distressing sense of China coverage. ]

    1. Macroduck

      How dare you, a shill for one of the most repressive regimes in the world, take this tone? Your pretense of high-mindedness is made comical by your refusal to acknowledge China’s enslavement of Uyghurs, China’s land-grab in the South China Sea, China’s oppression of Tibet and Hong Kong.

      You are shocked by the words printed in the NYT, but notthe deeds of Xi’s regime? Hypocrite.

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