75 thoughts on “EV and Hybrid Sales, thru December”
JohnH
“China’s auto exports surged 63.7% in 2023 while domestic sales, boosted by year-end incentives, rose 4.2%, an industry association said Thursday.
The surge in exports, to 4.1 million according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, may propel China past Japan as the world’s number one exporter of cars. Japan exported 3.6 million cars in the first 11 months of the year, with a final tally expected on Jan. 31.
Chinese automakers have aggressively expanded exports in search of growth missing at home as China’s economy slows. They have also pushed into electric vehicles as government subsidies transformed China into the world’s largest EV market, even as car sales have stagnated overall. https://apnews.com/article/china-auto-exports-ev-hybrid-7d553c31597125d6702b6691a8542cb1
Remember the good old days when free trade fundamentalists like Krugman complained about tariffs on the most trivial of products…like washing machines? Remember how they howled about their exacerbating inflation? Well, the tariffs on Chinese EVs have been greeted with silence… and their impact on consumer prices of automobiles has been ignored. And that silence sure makes Krugman and his fellow economists look like a bunch of free trade hypocrites.
And then there are those like Ducky and pgly who salivate at any hint of Chinese economic problems…and conveniently ignore success stories like the Chinese auto export boom. (Propaganda has its imperatives!)
pgl
“And then there are those like Ducky and pgly who salivate at any hint of Chinese economic problems…and conveniently ignore success stories like the Chinese auto export boom. (Propaganda has its imperatives!)”
I don’t mind have a stalker but why is mine a mental retard? I will let Macroduck speak for himself but I do not salivate. Oh wait Jonny boy has to blame someone for his throwing up his baby food so let me just note I celebrate economic growth in China. But we all wish little Jonny boy would once in his pathetic little life read his own damn links:
‘Auto sales inside China totaled 21.9 million cars last year, down from a peak of about 24 million in 2017.’
Auto sales are down? That sounds bad to me but not little Jonny boy as he did not read past the first couple of paragraphs as usual. Here’s a question for little Jonny boy – what was world car production in 2023? OK – Jonny boy is too stupid to find out but it was about 84 million cars. So wow – China’s exports were 5% of world production.
So with that settled could someone call little Jonny boy’s mom? His diaper needs changing.
pgl
“the tariffs on Chinese EVs have been greeted with silence”
More lies? Your lies are most persistent and even dumber than those that Trump makes on an hourly basis. I specifically have called for these tariffs to be moved. So has Jeff Frankel. Now assuming you ever learned to read (I know a big if) then you know this (oh wait – you don’t know how to tie your own shoe laces).
JohnH
Ya know, pgl, instead of going on a diatribe about my allegation that mainstream economists have gone silent on their pet issue of the last three decades—free trade, you could simply refute it by linking to opinion pieces by prominent economists (Krugman, Frankel, etc.) who could have been expected to be outraged, simply outraged by the tariffs on Chinese EVs. After all, didn’t these guys act as attack dogs for global corporations when anyone’s opinions could be inferred to express the slightest criticism of global laissez-faire economics?
I mean, if these attack dogs could be incensed by tariffs on washing machines (washing machines?!?), the least they could do is get doubly outraged by tariffs on EVs? These tariffs not only violate the spirit of “free” trade fundamentalism, but they also cost American consumers plenty, exacerbate inflation, and boost profits of auto makers like GM, who simply respond to government protection with stock buy backs, even putting their government subsidized EV development at risk. https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/how-gms-10-billion-buyback-may-ice-its-ev-transition
Of course, pgl never was one to complain of Corporate America’s profiteering and price gouging…
(I expect someone here to dig up a quote from some mainstream economist grousing a bit about EV tariffs in some obscure blog or opinion piece…but it will amount to little more than an attempt at CYA. I seriously doubt that it will remotely compare to vituperousness of the decades long campaign to cancel protectionist opinion.)
pgl
Your babbling has gotten so BORING, I’ve decided to outsource the replies
Macroduck
January 20, 2024 at 1:38 pm
Now I might return to paying a lick of attention to your dishonest parade when you: (a) apologize to McConnell for saying he invaded Costa Rica; and (2) show us your letter to James Comer where you have decided you have proof the BEA is part of the Biden crime family.
JohnH
Pgl can’t find any economists, formerly free trade fundamentalists, who speak out against EV tariffs. Of course, he may yet dig up one or even a few willing to stand up for what was once a sacred cause!
Back in the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s, economists singing the praises of “free” trade and demonizing “protectionists” were a dime a dozen. Now they’re as hard to find as hen’s teeth! Even Krugman, who opposed tariffs on washing machines, is nowhere to be found on EVs.
So much for mainstream economists’ “deeply held” convictions….which were apparently just a fad in support of Corporate America’s campaign to exploit cheap foreign labor and avoid regulations and taxes.
pgl
JohnH
January 21, 2024 at 2:23 pm
Pgl can’t find any economists, formerly free trade fundamentalists, who speak out against EV tariffs.
Yep – you lie needlessly over and over. I have noted many times that Dr. Frankel has done so. And you specifically attacked Dr. Frankel with your stupid lie.
Look dude – everyone here knows are a disgusting little liar. Take your worthless trash somewhere else.
pgl
I pointed something out a long time ago and you ducked it. Now you LIE like a rug with:
JohnH
January 20, 2024 at 1:54 pm
Ya know, pgl, instead of going on a diatribe about my allegation that mainstream economists have gone silent on their pet issue of the last three decades—free trade, you could simply refute it by linking to opinion pieces by prominent economists (Krugman, Frankel, etc.) who could have been expected to be outraged, simply outraged by the tariffs on Chinese EVs.
One more time for my dishonest mentally retarded stalker:
GAZETTE: Thus far, the Biden administration appears to have been following the advice of economists on inflation. But the political pressure is mounting. What actions should he take or not take now?
FRANKEL: What would be good to do would be to allow more imports, as I said, from an economics viewpoint. Maybe it doesn’t occur to the political people. But it would bring prices down on all kinds of household appliances, autos, and other goods. It would pay off right away.
What’s the matter Jonny boy – did you not figure out he was referring to tariffs on electric vehicles? I get your IQ is in the single digits but come on man. We also get you lie over and over again. Yea – I’m bored with your stupidity. Get over it.
JohnH
Back in the day, Frankel still criticised tariffs on washing machines, but the piece pgl linked to says nothing about EVs, which have much more significance. Of course, he may still mumble something, somewhere about tariffs on EVs, even though it’s become politically incorrect for erstwhile free trade fundamentalists to oppose what they vociferously and adamantly opposed just a few years agoo
JohnH: Do you want to revise and extend your comments re: Frankel? This post was on Econbrowser. In fact, you commented 3 times on this particular post.
Apparently, not only are you unable to find relevant data on the web (e.g., median wages), you tend to forgetfulness.
pgl
JohnH
January 21, 2024 at 2:09 pm
Back in the day, Frankel still criticised tariffs on washing machines, but the piece pgl linked to says nothing about EVs
Gee I thought EVs were cars. Maybe Jonny boy the genius thinks EVs are the stinky diapers his mommy will not change for him!
baffling
see how much time gets wasted correcting people like johnny (and corev and bruce) to corrected intentional and unintentional falsehoods. this is why i hate this era of misinformation. there is no penalty for being wrong.
Macroduck
Don’t ya just love it when you’re right? Thank you, little Johnny, for piling so many dishonest rhetorical tricks into one – I believe the word you chose was – diatribe. Let’s have a look.
“…instead of going on a diatribe about my allegation that mainstream economists have gone silent on their pet issue of the last three decades—free trade, you could simply refute it by linking to opinion pieces by prominent economists (Krugman, Frankel, etc.)…”
The Burden of Proof Fallacy
If a person claims that X is true, it is their responsibility to provide evidence in support of that assertion. It is invalid to claim that X is true until someone else can prove that X is not true.
Johnny is ngaging in number 11 on the list of fallacies.
He has also pulled this:
“…who could have been expected to be outraged, simply outraged by the tariffs on Chinese EVs.”
Could have been expected? Straw man, number 1.
“I seriously doubt that it will remotely compare to vituperousness of the decades long campaign to cancel protectionist opinion.”
Gimme a number 12, and hold the honesty:
The Personal Incredulity Fallacy
If you have difficulty understanding how or why something is true, that doesn’t automatically mean the thing in question is false. A personal or collective lack of understanding isn’t enough to render a claim invalid.
“Of course, pgl never was one to complain of Corporate America’s profiteering and price gouging…”
And it’s number 14, coming up on the outside:
The Ad Hominem Fallacy
An ad hominem fallacy occurs when you attack someone personally rather than using logic to refute their argument.
And, of course, there’s Johnny’s endless insistence that if Krugman, and in this case Frankel, hasn’t very recently said something, in a place Johnny is unable to ignore, all economists are guilty of something or other. That’s (drum roll, please!) number 5!
The Hasty Generalization Fallacy
This fallacy occurs when someone draws expansive conclusions based on inadequate or insufficient evidence. In other words, they jump to conclusions about the validity of a proposition with some — but not enough — evidence to back it up, and overlook potential counterarguments.
It’s almost as if Johnny went to school to learn how to do this stuff.
JohnH
Where, oh where are those free trade fundamentalist economists who once vigorously opposed tariffs? Hello? Hello? I can’t hear you!!!
pgl
JohnH
January 21, 2024 at 2:01 pm
Where, oh where are those free trade fundamentalist economists who once vigorously opposed tariffs? Hello? Hello? I can’t hear you!!!
I guess Frankel is some sort of socialist economist as he has clearly opposed tariffs. But Jonny boy goes out of his way to attack Frankel. Even so far as denying EVs are cars. Yea – Jonny boy is that stupid.
pgl
“if these attack dogs could be incensed by tariffs on washing machines (washing machines?!?)”
There was a discussion of how the Whirlpool/Maytag merger and the Trump tariffs gave Whirlpool an enormous amount of monopoly power but yea it was way over little Jonny boy’s head. But one would think you’d be interested in competition in this market as your poor mommy could afford a washing machine. But if she had one – she might change your stinky diapers more often.
JohnH
There was a discussion of washing machine tariffs…but a couple years later, silence on EV tariffs, which have a much greater impact. It’s as if a liberal economist handler flipped a switch, and what had been anathema (tariffs) became the new fad.
So much for the seriosity of economists “deeply held” convictions…
pgl
Gee – JohnH’s dishonest attacks on Dr. Frankel get called out by our host. Now I went back and read Jonny boy’s 3 comments to Dr. Frankel’s post and maybe Jonny boy did not recall this as it is clear from Jonny boy’s comments that he did not understand this post either.
Macroduck
Johnny is engaging in two rhetorical tricks here – the “ad homenim” and the “staw man”. In fact, much of Johnny’s approach to argumentation is just repeated use of rhetorical tricks, often referred to as fallacies. These tricks aren’t all formal fallacies, which are errors in logic. Most are just dishonest forms of debate. So perhaps it’s useful to distinguish between logical errors and informal fallacies.
Here’s a website listing 16 informal fallacies – Johnny seems to prefer the informal ones – chosen at random from tons of such lists on the internet:
Let’s see how many fallacy merit badges Johnny has collected –
1. The Straw Man Fallacy
This fallacy occurs when your opponent over-simplifies or misrepresents your argument (i.e., setting up a “straw man”) to make it easier to attack or refute.
Johnny has engaged in a stawman here, and does so endlessly, most often by dishonestly claiming his opponent represents a point of view – neoconservatism, for instance – or an interest group – corporations, for instance.
3. The Appeal to Authority Fallacy
Just because someone in a position of power believes something to be true, doesn’t make it true.
Johnny’s links to anyone who seems to agree with his view, often misrepresenting the “authority” he’s appealing to, as if a link is all that’s required to prove his point. Oh, and enough with Jeffery Sach as an “authority” on international relations, much less morality. Sachs is an economist.
4. The False Dilemma Fallacy
This common fallacy misleads by presenting complex issues in terms of two inherently opposed sides…
This fallacy is particularly problematic because it can lend false credence to extreme stances…
U.S. BAD!!! Russia GOOD!!!
5. The Hasty Generalization Fallacy
This fallacy occurs when someone draws expansive conclusions based on inadequate or insufficient evidence. In other words, they jump to conclusions about the validity of a proposition with some — but not enough — evidence to back it up, and overlook potential counterarguments.
This is one of Johnny’s go-to movesz as when he claims wage growth in the U.S. is slow or that Ukraine must negotiate an end to war NOW, NOW, NOW!!
8. The Anecdotal Evidence Fallacy
In place of logical evidence, this fallacy substitutes examples from someone’s personal experience.
Arguments that rely heavily on anecdotal evidence tend to overlook the fact that one (possibly isolated) example can’t stand alone as definitive proof of a greater premise.
Whenever Johnny offers a what-about-ism as a refutation, he’s indulging in anecdote as a rebuttal to evidence.
9. The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy
This fallacy gets its colorful name from an anecdote about a Texan who fires his gun at a barn wall, and then proceeds to paint a target around the closest cluster of bullet holes. He then points at the bullet-riddled target as evidence of his expert marksmanship.
Speakers who rely on the Texas sharpshooter fallacy tend to cherry-pick data clusters based on a predetermined conclusion.
Instead of letting a full spectrum of evidence lead them to a logical conclusion, they find patterns and correlations in support of their goals, and ignore evidence that contradicts them or suggests the clusters weren’t actually statistically significant.
Wage gains have been weak. ‘Nuff said.
11. The Burden of Proof Fallacy
If a person claims that X is true, it is their responsibility to provide evidence in support of that assertion. It is invalid to claim that X is true until someone else can prove that X is not true.
Johnny makes a claim. His claim is contradicted. He insists the other guy has the burden of proof. A classic.
12. The Personal Incredulity Fallacy
If you have difficulty understanding how or why something is true, that doesn’t automatically mean the thing in question is false. A personal or collective lack of understanding isn’t enough to render a claim invalid.
Actually, Johnny mostly does the inverse of this one. Johnny puts forward his own belief as evidence – the personal credulity fallacy. Score this one as you will.
14. The Ad Hominem Fallacy
An ad hominem fallacy occurs when you attack someone personally rather than using logic to refute their argument.
Neocon. Servant to corporate interests. Affiliated with finance. Eagerness for China to fail. Another go-to for Johnny.
15. The Tu Quoque Fallacy
The tu quoque fallacy (Latin for “you also”) is an invalid attempt to discredit an opponent by answering criticism with criticism — but never actually presenting a counterargument to the original disputed claim.
This is in fact a cousin of the ad honinem, and is an effort to change the subject. Yeah, he does this one.
16. The Fallacy Fallacy
Here’s something vital to keep in mind when sniffing out fallacies: just because someone’s argument relies on a fallacy doesn’t necessarily mean that their claim is inherently untrue.
This is sad, but true. U.S. workers could use a bigger slice of the pie. Monopsony is a problem. The U.S. has made some terrible foreign policy decisions and has had some dispicable allies. All true. Johnny pretends he”s the only person here to notice, and he seems only to care when it serves to further Russian interests. It would be lovely to discuss any of these issues honestly, but Johnny won’t allow honest discussion.
So 9, maybe 10 out of the first 15. Johnny, there’s still room for improvement!
To my mind, the sadest is number 16. If only Johnny – and the increasingly scarce other members of the troll choir – would stop with the dishonest claptrap, there’d be room for real discussion. But chances are, real discussion is what they mean to prevent.
Baffling
Nice list and accurate. It is just a shame to waste time and energy on these dishonest people.
pgl
You got it – I’ve grown bored with my internet stalker who clearly is mentally retarded. And yet Jonny boy is still chirping trash. YAWN!
Ithaqua
This is one of the best takedowns I’ve ever read. Congratulations on a job excellently well done!
the world is going to EV. it is inevitable. you can deny, kick and scream…or accept the inevitable and work with the change. your choice. but the days of ICE as the primary vehicle are very numbered. the EV is the car of the next 50 years. put that in stone.
Bruce Hall
Baffling, you may be correct that in 50 years EVs will be the dominant vehicles. The article from Business Insider simply pointed out the hurdles before that “eventuality”. An inexpensive, light-weight, high-density storage battery would be the game changer. It is argued that batteries are more efficient in delivering power than gasoline. This is correct in theory. However, the reality is that comparable EVs weigh considerably more in total than an ICEV while delivering considerably less range at present. The current narrative is that EVs are the perfect urban vehicle because most people drive less than 50 miles per day so charging is not a problem. The reality is that urban apartment dwellers and those without garages face the daunting task of locating a public charger and then they may be inoperative or in the 45-minute charging mode for another vehicle.
As the article pointed out, consumer resistance to EVs is higher once the subsidies/tax breaks are eliminated. Yet, without the much higher price points, many EVs manufacturers will lose significant amounts on each vehicle produced. The 2030 government goals are completely unrealistic and even the 2050 goals may be quite a stretch.
No one is denying or kicking or screaming about EVs. People make purchase choices based on a variety of factors and currently, for most people, the value equation (cost and convenience) is not there yet. Here is some good information about the cost of home charger installations. https://www.bobvila.com/articles/cost-to-install-ev-charger-at-home/
Another interesting issue is that, at present, the states that are pushing EVs tend to have higher kWh rates than those that don’t have a specific agenda. This is most pronounced in California. Of course, California has artificially inflated the cost of gasoline as well. https://www.cnet.com/home/energy-and-utilities/electricity-rates-by-state/
The pattern of electricity rates does not align well with gasoline prices except for California. Therefore, people may be more reluctant to purchase an EV in low priced gasoline/high priced electricity states. https://www.gasbuddy.com/usa
pgl
Hey Brucie – if you want that hot date with JohnH, the two of you should get on the same page with this issue. Sure Jonny boy overstates the case for Chinese production of EVs but your snide disdain misses the fact that global EV sales were 13.6 million vehicles in 2023. Oh what – your gurus at Faux News forgot to tell you that?
Bruce Hall
pgl, thanks for your expected reply. Just like global warming, global sales don’t mean much for the various regions. China certainly has been the leader in EV production and sales due to the command nature of its economy. That doesn’t mean that same pattern will follow exactly in the US or elsewhere.
Oops, Bruce didn’t cite Fox News – but he did find an equally moronic article at Vox.
It is better for the environment if people walk, bike or eBike than if they drive an EV – well duh!
If people have a car they are less likely to take public transportation – well duh!
When you spend money to subsidize purchases of new vehicles you spend more on rich than poor people – well duh!
Fact is that incentivizing people to chose an EV rather than an ICE worked to the point where 7/8 new vehicle purchases are EVs – and it had substantial effects on reducing pollution and green house gases. Was it worth it – depend on how much money you have and how important the goal is. Did it have some minor negative effects – none that should have been a surprise to anybody with an IQ over 70.
Baffling
No bruce, EV is the car of the next fifty years. Not in 50 years. Got a question for you. Have you opposed or presented resistance to a national rollout of EV chargers?
Ivan
Exactly. There are all these but, but but from people who can’t get their heads out of their own butt.
Sure there are issues balancing the choice between ICE or EV favorable for one or the other depending on the person and their situation. However the developments in the EV space is pushing more and more consumers in the direction of EV or plug-in hybrid. As always, people with a “can’t do” attitude are pushed aside by those with a “can do” attitude finding solutions.
The main problem of cost/range is being solved with new battery compositions (such as the lithium/Iron/phosphate (yes the metal Iron)) that deliver more range, faster charging/discharging at lower weight and longer life. They are planning a plant for lithium/iron/phosphate car batteries in MS that should begin producing by 2026. Charging infrastructure is being developed for those who cannot charge at home. Plans for shifting to EVs are ambitious as they should be. Whether goals are attained accordingly or a few years later, the future is inevitable.
baffling
the biggest problem EV’s face is that we are designing EV as a direct replacement of ICE. it is absurd. dimensions, performance, etc are all dictated by the design and shape of the legacy ICE. you would get a significantly better performing vehicle if this were not the case. for instance, most ICE vehicles today are much too large. this creates safety issues for other vehicles, that then must be made larger to protect against those vehicles. a shift towards smaller vehicles would greatly benefit the EV. It can provide more usable space for the same size vehicle than an ICE can. not to mention that autonomous vehicles fit much better with the EV model than ICE models.
other than for political reasons, i really cannot fathom why some of these folks are so anti-EV. we had this debate a few years ago with Steven, when he and others continued to claim that ICE vehicles outperformed EV’s. only the fool would continue to promote that claim, but here we are, some of those fools are still on this site. people gripe that 300 mile range is not sufficient-foolish. and charging issues are self inflicted. a national rollout solves that problem. in addition, very few people need an immediate recharge of 300 mile range. that issue is very workable for a competent engineer supported by some reasonable policies. we have solutions today. we just have some lousy people throwing sand in the gears, keeping the country from moving forward.
pgl
“The sudden slowdown in electric car sales is a symptom of a much uglier problem.”
Admit it – Brucie Boy was high fiving all his MAGA hat buddies so much that Brucie forgot to read the facts from Kevin Drum. Oh well – I hope you have fun at tonight’s KKK get together.
Bruce Hall
Oooo, did you have a problem with the information I provided… or only that I provided it?
Baffling
The wsj very recently gave a summary of EV as well. It acknowledges that EV is the way of the future. The wsj says that bruce.
Pgl
You present LIES. So calling your BS information is just stupid
Ivan
For the US with its limited charging infrastructure, plug-in hybrids are the most sensible choice. The average commute is under 40 miles so most people can drive 80-90% on the much cheeper and less polluting EV mode, but always have the gas engine as a backup and for long trips. The latest Prius plug-in look like an excellent entry into that market.
Chevrolet made another massive mistake when they gave up on their plug-in hybrid the Volt (with 65 mile battery and a turbo charged generator to make all the electricity you needed to keep driving after the battery was flat). They had the perfect transition vehicle with a huge popularity among those who had one. However, they decided to cancel it and go all out with the Bolt (a regular small EV) instead, but now that will be discontinuing too.
The biggest problem is that dealers hate EVs because they don’t need much repair or maintenance – so they don’t make much money on them. That is why you never see advertisement for them, and sales people actively try to talk out out of an EV purchase.
China has an $11K small EV that is selling extremely well domestically. They are planning to build that in Mexico so they can sell in US without tariffs. It will be interesting to see what US car makers will do about that.
pgl
Did you catch who is Bruce Hall’s EV guru? Bob Vila? You can’t make this stuff up. Next up for Brucie boy – Oprah Winfrey giving economic advice. And of course Martha Stewart telling us which stocks to buy!
Moses Herzog
Why did Menzie have to use the term “flat”? Got a flat tire on the car today, POS Goodyear tires got on the cheap from the dealership. Yeah they were cheap but they also performed like cheap. 3 patches inside of a year and a basic blowout (would have been super bad on the interstate) just barely over 1 year. Got two new Continental tires that with labor cost me $429. I think I can live with that if I worry less about blowouts at 70 mph on the interstate.
Advice and moral of the story. Don’t let a Toyota dealership talk you into crap tires on a service visit and don’t buy POS Goodyear tires.
pgl
“I wonder whether this reflects that a large segment of potential EV buyers have decided against buying Teslas so long as Elmo is in charge. The Venn Diagram of potential EV buyers and allegedly “woke” people Elmo constantly bashes has a pretty significant overlap.”
E-6 gets the award for funniest comment!
joseph
If Biden really wants to reach his EV goals, he needs to remove the tariffs on Chinese EVs. The US EV manufacturers have concentrated on high margin SUVs and toys for the rich. What the market really needs are low cost commuter EVs for everyone else and it seems only the Chinese have any interest or expertise in filling that segment. Biden’s tariffs are preventing that.
This is similar to the 1970s when US manufacturers concentrated on high margin V8 road hogs when regular people really wanted low cost Japanese imports.
pgl
“If Biden really wants to reach his EV goals, he needs to remove the tariffs on Chinese EVs.”
I agree! A lot of economists would agree. But wait, wait – JohnH just declared we are all for these tariffs and we know Jonny boy always tells the truth – right?
Ivan
I am not sure how much difference it makes whether it’s a Chinese $11,000 EV without tariffs or $14,500 with tariffs, both are highly competitive with what is currently offered in the US. Right now neither is for sale in the US, but the Chinese are planning to build a plant in Mexico to get around the tariff issue. The Chinese don’t have the capacity to expand to US at the same time they are getting into Europe. But you are absolutely right that the US car industry is in for a rude awakening.
Macroduck
Many of China’s EV models are small, light, inexpensive and efficient as a means of personal transportation. A very different car culture than the U.S. We could use a lesson.
Aptera, anyone?
Ithaqua
I’ve been looking at Aptera as my old Chevy Spark slowly dies (no maintenance from Chevrolet!) Keeping those solar panels clean makes it relatively high user maintenance, but, assuming the Car and Driver-tested average 13% gap between actual and tested range, a range of 850 or so miles is staggeringly impressive. Of course, driving from the Bay Area to Seattle involves a lot of mountains…
Ivan
Agree the Aptera is fantastic and will become the basis for a great new solar powered commuter vehicle.
Currently for sale is the Toyota Prius Prime hybrid with a solar panel roof that can add about 4 miles of driving if parked in the sun during work hours. Not an insignificant addition to the 39 mile battery. If they added another panel like that on the roof and one more on the front hood, that would become 12 miles of solar driving. That would be pretty good for the first generation of solar assist hybrid vehicles.
Baffling
Don’t disagree. But for safety reasons you got to get those big suvs off the roads if you want more small vehicles. Works in Europe.
Macroduck
Love to.
By the way, China has announced “greater scrutiny” of new investment in electric vehicle production. Not clear whether this is an effort to placate the EU or concern over malinvestment.
pgl
I’m reading the Argonne report that Kevin Drum linked to since uber-trolls like JohnH and Bruce Hall never learned to read:
“Latest Monthly Sales Data
HEV Sales
In December 2023, 117,690 HEVs (31,825 cars and 85,865 LTs) were sold in the United States, up 70.3% from the sales in December 2022.
Toyota accounted for a 50.8% share of total HEV sales this month.
Plug-In Vehicle Sales
A total of 141,055 plug-in vehicles (100,928 BEVs and 40,127 PHEVs) were sold during December 2023 in the United States, up 42.4% from the sales in December 2022. PEVs captured 9.84% of total LDV sales this month.
Cumulatively, 1,402,371 PHEVs and BEVs have been sold in 2023. In total, 4,684,128 PHEVs and BEVs have been sold since 2010.”
Gee Brucie never told us that these sales have been rising so quicky. And Toyota captured most than half of the HEV market? Jonny told us the Chinese were the leaders – huh. But wait there’s more!
‘Electric Vehicle Energy Storage Capacity
According to Argonne’s analysis of publicly announced lithium-ion battery cell factories in North America, as of January 2024, manufacturers in the United States could supply around 10 million new light duty plug-in electric vehicles each year by 2030, assuming an average pack size of 80-100 kWh.’
And Jonny keeps telling us only the Chinese will be making battery cells. Gee – the good folks at Argonne must be so ignorant as they are contradicting our resident experts in Jonny and Brucie boy.
Baffling
Good policy would promote the ability to add those batteries back into the grid when needed. Electricity demand rises when people come home from work. Wouldnt it be nice if those people could plug into the grid and provide reserve power at peak demand? Since they are only commuters, battery will have plenty of charge that was not used throughout the day. Problem solved. But you know who will raise an issue against, because it is a solution in favor of EV and renewables. The party of no.
Ivan
It would indeed be a perfect solution to the evening peak problem and could also be useful for the morning peak. Because most people want the 400 mile range that is only used a few times a year on road trips, they end up with a massive excess of battery capacity. They can easily drive take off on regular work days with less than a full battery and still be able to lend power to the grid the first few hours of the evening after they come back.
EV owners would plug in as soon as they came home and lend some power to the grid, then they would fully load the battery during overnight hours, and give some of that back again during the peak morning hours. This would greatly help power companies as it would smooth out the 24 hour cycle. Greatly reduced rates could be offered for those who plugged their EV into a power company controlled plug. Win-win.
baffling
and i will add, the need for these long range batteries is not necessary. the solution, and it is being developed, is simply faster recharge times. That is actually going to be easier and more efficient than doubling battery capacity. we have parrots harping about the need to increase battery capacity, but that is simply an intentional distraction. if i can recharge a battery in 5 or 10 minutes, my need for long range is drastically diminished. that is a very solvable problem. and produces a smaller and lighter car that further increases the range of my vehicle. and better safety on the roads. the benefits of the electric vehicle makes you wonder what kind of idiot would be against such progress? all you got to do is think outside the box and be willing to adapt to a little change from before.
instead of insisting on going outside in the cold and climbing up the antenna tower to rotate and get better reception, why not just get cable tv? you know who you are.
Ivan
Completely agree that the desire for a 400 mile range has come from the legacy of gasoline cars with that approximate number of miles on a full tank. When you are “gassing up” from a plug in the wall at home, you don’t need it. For the road trip it might be nice with a long range, but minimal inconvenience to only have 150-200 mile range if you have a good charging infrastructure and can charge up in 5-10 minutes.
There is no doubt that EVs will take over, that is why all the car companies now are building battery and EV factories. That is not a case of “if we build it they will come” its a case of “we better build it cause they are coming”.
pgl
And God gave us Trump
Story by Antonio Muñoz Molina
Unlike fiction, reality can defy verisimilitude. Commercial films invent misguided beings and impossible plots that become metaphors for their time and offer unsettling premonitions. Yet no fictional dystopia can match the chilling reality of news headlines and broadcasts. Today’s mega-billionaires (Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, etc.) resemble the all-powerful, misanthropic villains of Ian Fleming’s novels and early James Bond films. But compared to their modern-day incarnations, Fleming’s villains now seem endearing, much like Doctor Moriarty from the Sherlock Holmes novels. Not only are they technologically obsolescent, these fictional characters were bound by the rules of believability and coherence that literature must always obey.
No one could have predicted the rise of Donald Trump. He bears some resemblance to the Lex Luthor character with his distinctive yellow hairpiece, played by Gene Hackman in the 1978 Superman movie directed by Richard Donner. He also shares some traits with New York mafia bosses and wise guys, who themselves imitated the clothing and language of the fictional gangsters in films by Francis Ford Coppola and Martin Scorsese. Like a movie monster created by makeup and special effects experts, Trump seems immune to the weapons and increasingly aggressive attacks launched against him. At times, he deceives us by playing possum. We are duped into thinking that Trump lies dead in his grave, in a coffin that no vampire claw can pierce, or under the Artic ice, or at the bottom of the sea.
But that’s a trick that never fails to work. The film is suddenly shattered by a shocking event, causing fear to ripple through the movie theater. The fallen beast rises, more ferocious than ever; the radioactive dinosaur emerges from the ruins. Trump lost the 2020 elections, but his supporters claim it was a stolen victory. When he incited the assault on the Capitol Building, even his closest allies feared he had finally gone too far. Yet, his shameless, steadfast support for the rioters has only increased his popularity. Trump faces multiple trials for fraud, electoral fraud, sexual assault and tax crimes. Despite this, millions of evangelicals see him as a victim of persecution, comparing him to Jesus Christ in Pontius Pilate’s court.
Trump has consistently flaunted his sexual promiscuity, infidelities and divorces, along with his physical and verbal abuse of women. This behavior has been likened by evangelicals to that of King David, an adulterer who still served God and brought military glory to Israel. Trump is also compared to King Cyrus the Great, an idolater and sinner who, according to the Book of Isaiah, allowed the Hebrew people to return to their land from Babylonian captivity. Europeans often have trouble understanding Americans who are fixated on the Old Testament’s bloody religiosity and literal interpretations of the Book of Revelation. In this deeply divided country, the upcoming elections are seen not as a contest between Democrats and Republicans, but as a battle between good and evil, with profound consequences. A popular video among evangelicals features a booming voice proclaiming, “And God gave us Trump.” The terror and grotesqueness of this video surpasses the most chilling fantasies ever seen on the silver screen. The nightmares of reality have rendered fictional horror irrelevant. The daunting beast that cannot be defeated has returned in a new guise, proclaiming to be the Messiah.
pgl
When we think Bruce Hall cannot get dumber he exceeds all expectations. This MORON says climate change is not a global issue? Oh wait – car production is not a global markets? Excuse me – the CEOs of GM and Ford would fall on the floor laughing at your suggestion. As would the CEO’s of BMW, Toyota, and a lot of other car multinationals. Oh wait – someone please little Brucie boy what multinational means.
OK Brucie thinks he scores points because GM will start EV production next year not this year. Seriously Brucie? And yea – I read that Vox article on Norway but I doubt you did. The idea was that they bike more and not drive cars as much – not that they drive gas guzzlers like you do.
Yea Brucie is working really hard to win that 2024 troll of the year award. Keep them coming little Brucie boy. We are cheering for you!
Take a read as Trump was all tough talk but no action so Fentanyl use doubled during his Administration. But never fear – Kelly Anne Conway has called Bruce Hall to claim this was all Biden’s fault. That is what Brucie boy do.
David S
Well, I guess the EV craze had to die sometime. The best investment is a Ford Falcon with a supercharged V8 and a leather outfit. Tear down the windmills, tear down the solar panels–unless they’re in Texas where you’ll get shot by landowners who are making big money of that left-wing voodoo tech. The Hubbert Peak shall return! It is our destiny!
Baffling
In case you missed it, EV IS STILL GROWING. It did not die. Exponential growth cannot be maintained forever. It must reset on occasion. That does not mean that growth has stopped.
Baffling
Texas renewables are a republican achievement.
pgl
We should call Kevin Drum butter as he is on a roll:
Over longer periods CPI is badly off. Without diving into a bunch of niggling details, the best bet for long periods that go back far into the past is PCE inflation. Here’s what blue-collar earnings look like:
{must see graph}
Either way, blue-collar workers lost a lot of ground in the Reagan-Bush years. But they’ve recovered from that, and if you calculate inflation correctly blue collar wages are up 27% since 1969. That’s still no great shakes, but it’s way different from “lower than 1969.”
Kevin notes he used BLS for CPI and those Biden Socialists for PCE.
Macroduck
Benjamin Gompertz understood in 1825 (and probably before) why growth slows. A slow start, acceleration and then another period of slowing is standard sigmoid growth. It explains all kinds of growth under limits, including farm production, population, and product sales.
And, before anyone says anything that will make them seem foolish, if a limiting factor – the number of charging stations, for instance – is removed or adjusted to allow faster growth, the sigmoid pattern can restart.
While we’re at it, keep in mind that sigmoid growth is around an underlying trend. If the trend is flat, then the late phase is decline. If the trend is upward, the late phase may include a period of decline, but decline needn’t persist. Anyone who claims they can look at short-term variations is EV sales and identify the longer-term underlying trend is either not the sharpest tack in the box or lying.
Macroduck
Along with climate-change deniers, we have for years been treated to glib suggestions from climate-change cheerleaders that a warmer climate will allow more food production- so no problem That was always nonsense, but as is evident from some comments here, there is an overwhelming urge for some to downplay the harm from climate change and to deride any effort to reduce fossil fuel consumption.
So anyhow, the problems of performing working in the hotter and more humid conditions forecast for coming decades has been recognized for some time. Parts of the U.S. South and parts of Mexico may well suffer big losses in output, especially because of rising humidity. Here is an effort to quantify the problem on a global basis:
“The mean of 2018–2020 USDA/ERS estimates of people working in agriculture globally is 856.7 million (Fuglie, Jelliffe, and Morgan, date accessed 27/02/2023). With the recent past thermal environment, 35% of the agricultural workforce (302 million workers) was in locations where the growing season average PWC (physical work capacity) was 0.80 of full capacity or less (Table 2). With the end-century/SSP5-8.5 thermal environment, the number of workers affected by those conditions increases to 75% and workers in environments with a growing-season average PWC of 0.60 or less increases from zero to 45%.”
So most of the world’s farm workers will face conditions that will reduce their ability to do physical work, and 45% will have their effective capacity cut by more than a third. Most of these workers are in poorer countries, where farm productivity is low already. Buying food imports to replace lost domestic production will be problematic, since working to produce exports to payfor imports will be made difficult by heat and humidity.
Starvation and emigration are two likely results. So pleased that our climate-change apologists were able to string out their climate lie for a while longer
Ithaqua
Here’s something that will undoubtedly alter the growth rate around the end of the decade:
So the next decade will bring us batteries that can go over 300,000 miles without losing range. Solid state batteries with 10 min charging times and 750 miles range. Lithium/iron/phosphate batteries reducing cost 40%.
Sure looks good to me.
EVs would cost less than comparable ICE vehicles. They would last twice as long. Instead of filling your gas tank every 15 days you would stop at the fast charger, have a cup of coffee, and fill the battery, once a month.
Sure looks good to me.
pgl
And Jonny boy tried to tell us Toyota was never going to be a player in the EV market. I bet Jonny boy advised GM over 50 years ago to ignore the Japanese competition.
Moses Herzog
Was I the last to hear about DeSantis this late afternoon?? I can predict the next headline “DeSantis Offers Full-throat BJ in Public to Donald Trump at Mar-A-Lago. Wife Says She Will Watch Livestream on Amazon Prime From Home While Burning Public Library Books”.
And yes, there is no question the businesses grabbed all the money they could, leading to an extra increment of inflation above that which is attributable to compensation gains and other input costs.
I’ve provided national income, labor compensation, corporate profits and everything else (national income minus labor compensation and corporate profits). These are the big categories involved in the Inflation discussion. Everything else, hereinafter referred to as “other”, includes the effects of non-labor supply shocks.
We have talked about the supply shock to input costs due to Covid, but sometimes it gets left out. Remember, inflation took off because of that supply shock. Everything else was a result of and sometimes a response to that supply shock.
Notice the relative size of each of the GDI components. Profits are the smallest category. So while the gain to profits was large in percentage terms during the early Covid recovery, it is not large in its contribution to changed to national income. What doesn’t swing nominal national income isn’t likely to swing inflation much. Labor compensation amounted to 53.5% of GDI in 2002. Profits were 11.6% of GDI. The “other” category was over three times larger than profits, accounting for 37.3% of GDI.
“Other” rose 14.2% in 2022 over 2021 and 9.7% in 2021 over 2020. Profits rose 8.9% in 2022, after a big rebound in 2021, up over 30%. Labor compensation rose 7.1% in 2022 over 2021, but labor compensation is nearly 5 times larger than profits.
We don’t have the full-year numbers for 2023 yet, but 2022 was the big year for inflation. Happy to do the math again when we have 2023 data, but the “Blame Biden” crowd, which includes Johnny, insist on looking at 2022, so I’ve provided the data.
Labor, though it struggles to keep its fair share of what it produces, necessarily accounts for a large share of changes to national income. Otherwise, the economy would grind to a halt. “Other” input costs account for the next largest share. In a disinflationary economy, “other” loses ground to labor compensation and profits, but when there is a negative supply shock, “other” input costs rise sharply.
In percentage terms, profits will often swing more than other components, because profits are the smallest component and are a residual, after everything else is paid. In terms of levels, though, profits don’t usually make the biggest contribution to swings in national income, so can’t make the biggest contribution to inflation. It can happen in isolated quarters, and there has been a long-term shift toward profits taking a bigger share of national income, but the big story behind cyclical swings in nominal income and in inflation is much more likely to be costs than profits.
What capital has done is to take a larger share of REAL income over time. And that is really, really bad. That is largely separate from the issue of what is driving inflation. “Greedflation” is a real thing, but outside of isolated quarters, it is a sideshow in the inflation story. The longer term story is class warfare. The short term story is Covid shock.
Johnny will probably offer his usual outrage melodrama, insist that I’m a shill for capitalist interests and all that, but his goal is political. Truth doesn’t matter to him. These are the numbers. Feel free to check ’em.
Moses Herzog
@ Macroduck
I think I am much closer to your side of the issue, or your “take” on the issue than Johnnie’s. But I also think it’s very very hard to quantify what proportion of inflation is supply shortage created and what proportion is greedflation.
I’m just trying to keep reading and keep learning.
pgl
If you are wondering about the impact on shipping costs in light of those Houthi attacks, Kevin Drum offers some information:
A cool graph showing how the cost of batteries used to be 50% of a large EV total cost and it will slide down to 20% by 2030. Given that every other component of an EV drivetrain is less costly than for an ICE it is likely that we soon will see (then surpass) cost parity.
Every new technology face 3 user groups:
1. Trailblazers, willing to pay more – for the undeniable product advantages – or because they think its cool (10%).
2. Cautious foot draggers needing a fair amount of convincing to “risk” some of that fancy new stuff (80%).
3. Stuck in he mud losers, who will always find some reason to continue rejecting the new – way past where it is logic (10%).
The second group is beginning to arrive in the EV market and what many of them need is price parity for purchasing.
Ivan
More on the EV battery market and expected developments.
Figure 1 is an interesting chart showing the decline in prices from 2013 to 2023. I bet if CoRev were still allowed to comment, he would be citing the data from a decade ago as if it were current.
Steven Kopits
Interesting piece about auto insurers refusing to insure EVs in China.
Not really a surprise. For example, replacing a Kia battery costs Can $60,000, and they are surprisingly easy to damage as total losses from minor incidents.
A Motormouth youtube? You do come up with the dumbest sources.
pgl
You 2nd link is in Chinese. But it does translate the story and oh brother. A couple of personal tales and not some in depth analysis. I guess this sloppy research is just your ticket for an appearance on Fox and Friends.
Ivan
If you don’t have data you can always cite some wild eye dumb-ass tale from the internet. It works on Fox.
Somehow I doubt anybody but the poster would be impressed here at this website – – – oh wait maybe there will be one or two readers here who think a profound insight was revealed by this cherry-picked story from the dark corners of the internet tubes.
Is it really that hard to dig out insurance premiums for similar EV and ICE vehicles here in the US? – or did he do it but couldn’t find support for his narrative?
“China’s auto exports surged 63.7% in 2023 while domestic sales, boosted by year-end incentives, rose 4.2%, an industry association said Thursday.
The surge in exports, to 4.1 million according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, may propel China past Japan as the world’s number one exporter of cars. Japan exported 3.6 million cars in the first 11 months of the year, with a final tally expected on Jan. 31.
Chinese automakers have aggressively expanded exports in search of growth missing at home as China’s economy slows. They have also pushed into electric vehicles as government subsidies transformed China into the world’s largest EV market, even as car sales have stagnated overall.
https://apnews.com/article/china-auto-exports-ev-hybrid-7d553c31597125d6702b6691a8542cb1
Remember the good old days when free trade fundamentalists like Krugman complained about tariffs on the most trivial of products…like washing machines? Remember how they howled about their exacerbating inflation? Well, the tariffs on Chinese EVs have been greeted with silence… and their impact on consumer prices of automobiles has been ignored. And that silence sure makes Krugman and his fellow economists look like a bunch of free trade hypocrites.
And then there are those like Ducky and pgly who salivate at any hint of Chinese economic problems…and conveniently ignore success stories like the Chinese auto export boom. (Propaganda has its imperatives!)
“And then there are those like Ducky and pgly who salivate at any hint of Chinese economic problems…and conveniently ignore success stories like the Chinese auto export boom. (Propaganda has its imperatives!)”
I don’t mind have a stalker but why is mine a mental retard? I will let Macroduck speak for himself but I do not salivate. Oh wait Jonny boy has to blame someone for his throwing up his baby food so let me just note I celebrate economic growth in China. But we all wish little Jonny boy would once in his pathetic little life read his own damn links:
‘Auto sales inside China totaled 21.9 million cars last year, down from a peak of about 24 million in 2017.’
Auto sales are down? That sounds bad to me but not little Jonny boy as he did not read past the first couple of paragraphs as usual. Here’s a question for little Jonny boy – what was world car production in 2023? OK – Jonny boy is too stupid to find out but it was about 84 million cars. So wow – China’s exports were 5% of world production.
So with that settled could someone call little Jonny boy’s mom? His diaper needs changing.
“the tariffs on Chinese EVs have been greeted with silence”
More lies? Your lies are most persistent and even dumber than those that Trump makes on an hourly basis. I specifically have called for these tariffs to be moved. So has Jeff Frankel. Now assuming you ever learned to read (I know a big if) then you know this (oh wait – you don’t know how to tie your own shoe laces).
Ya know, pgl, instead of going on a diatribe about my allegation that mainstream economists have gone silent on their pet issue of the last three decades—free trade, you could simply refute it by linking to opinion pieces by prominent economists (Krugman, Frankel, etc.) who could have been expected to be outraged, simply outraged by the tariffs on Chinese EVs. After all, didn’t these guys act as attack dogs for global corporations when anyone’s opinions could be inferred to express the slightest criticism of global laissez-faire economics?
I mean, if these attack dogs could be incensed by tariffs on washing machines (washing machines?!?), the least they could do is get doubly outraged by tariffs on EVs? These tariffs not only violate the spirit of “free” trade fundamentalism, but they also cost American consumers plenty, exacerbate inflation, and boost profits of auto makers like GM, who simply respond to government protection with stock buy backs, even putting their government subsidized EV development at risk.
https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/how-gms-10-billion-buyback-may-ice-its-ev-transition
Of course, pgl never was one to complain of Corporate America’s profiteering and price gouging…
(I expect someone here to dig up a quote from some mainstream economist grousing a bit about EV tariffs in some obscure blog or opinion piece…but it will amount to little more than an attempt at CYA. I seriously doubt that it will remotely compare to vituperousness of the decades long campaign to cancel protectionist opinion.)
Your babbling has gotten so BORING, I’ve decided to outsource the replies
Macroduck
January 20, 2024 at 1:38 pm
Now I might return to paying a lick of attention to your dishonest parade when you: (a) apologize to McConnell for saying he invaded Costa Rica; and (2) show us your letter to James Comer where you have decided you have proof the BEA is part of the Biden crime family.
Pgl can’t find any economists, formerly free trade fundamentalists, who speak out against EV tariffs. Of course, he may yet dig up one or even a few willing to stand up for what was once a sacred cause!
Back in the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s, economists singing the praises of “free” trade and demonizing “protectionists” were a dime a dozen. Now they’re as hard to find as hen’s teeth! Even Krugman, who opposed tariffs on washing machines, is nowhere to be found on EVs.
So much for mainstream economists’ “deeply held” convictions….which were apparently just a fad in support of Corporate America’s campaign to exploit cheap foreign labor and avoid regulations and taxes.
JohnH
January 21, 2024 at 2:23 pm
Pgl can’t find any economists, formerly free trade fundamentalists, who speak out against EV tariffs.
Yep – you lie needlessly over and over. I have noted many times that Dr. Frankel has done so. And you specifically attacked Dr. Frankel with your stupid lie.
Look dude – everyone here knows are a disgusting little liar. Take your worthless trash somewhere else.
I pointed something out a long time ago and you ducked it. Now you LIE like a rug with:
JohnH
January 20, 2024 at 1:54 pm
Ya know, pgl, instead of going on a diatribe about my allegation that mainstream economists have gone silent on their pet issue of the last three decades—free trade, you could simply refute it by linking to opinion pieces by prominent economists (Krugman, Frankel, etc.) who could have been expected to be outraged, simply outraged by the tariffs on Chinese EVs.
One more time for my dishonest mentally retarded stalker:
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2021/11/jeffrey-frankel-offers-biden-advice-on-inflation/
GAZETTE: Thus far, the Biden administration appears to have been following the advice of economists on inflation. But the political pressure is mounting. What actions should he take or not take now?
FRANKEL: What would be good to do would be to allow more imports, as I said, from an economics viewpoint. Maybe it doesn’t occur to the political people. But it would bring prices down on all kinds of household appliances, autos, and other goods. It would pay off right away.
What’s the matter Jonny boy – did you not figure out he was referring to tariffs on electric vehicles? I get your IQ is in the single digits but come on man. We also get you lie over and over again. Yea – I’m bored with your stupidity. Get over it.
Back in the day, Frankel still criticised tariffs on washing machines, but the piece pgl linked to says nothing about EVs, which have much more significance. Of course, he may still mumble something, somewhere about tariffs on EVs, even though it’s become politically incorrect for erstwhile free trade fundamentalists to oppose what they vociferously and adamantly opposed just a few years agoo
JohnH: Do you want to revise and extend your comments re: Frankel? This post was on Econbrowser. In fact, you commented 3 times on this particular post.
Apparently, not only are you unable to find relevant data on the web (e.g., median wages), you tend to forgetfulness.
JohnH
January 21, 2024 at 2:09 pm
Back in the day, Frankel still criticised tariffs on washing machines, but the piece pgl linked to says nothing about EVs
Gee I thought EVs were cars. Maybe Jonny boy the genius thinks EVs are the stinky diapers his mommy will not change for him!
see how much time gets wasted correcting people like johnny (and corev and bruce) to corrected intentional and unintentional falsehoods. this is why i hate this era of misinformation. there is no penalty for being wrong.
Don’t ya just love it when you’re right? Thank you, little Johnny, for piling so many dishonest rhetorical tricks into one – I believe the word you chose was – diatribe. Let’s have a look.
“…instead of going on a diatribe about my allegation that mainstream economists have gone silent on their pet issue of the last three decades—free trade, you could simply refute it by linking to opinion pieces by prominent economists (Krugman, Frankel, etc.)…”
The Burden of Proof Fallacy
If a person claims that X is true, it is their responsibility to provide evidence in support of that assertion. It is invalid to claim that X is true until someone else can prove that X is not true.
Johnny is ngaging in number 11 on the list of fallacies.
He has also pulled this:
“…who could have been expected to be outraged, simply outraged by the tariffs on Chinese EVs.”
Could have been expected? Straw man, number 1.
“I seriously doubt that it will remotely compare to vituperousness of the decades long campaign to cancel protectionist opinion.”
Gimme a number 12, and hold the honesty:
The Personal Incredulity Fallacy
If you have difficulty understanding how or why something is true, that doesn’t automatically mean the thing in question is false. A personal or collective lack of understanding isn’t enough to render a claim invalid.
“Of course, pgl never was one to complain of Corporate America’s profiteering and price gouging…”
And it’s number 14, coming up on the outside:
The Ad Hominem Fallacy
An ad hominem fallacy occurs when you attack someone personally rather than using logic to refute their argument.
And, of course, there’s Johnny’s endless insistence that if Krugman, and in this case Frankel, hasn’t very recently said something, in a place Johnny is unable to ignore, all economists are guilty of something or other. That’s (drum roll, please!) number 5!
The Hasty Generalization Fallacy
This fallacy occurs when someone draws expansive conclusions based on inadequate or insufficient evidence. In other words, they jump to conclusions about the validity of a proposition with some — but not enough — evidence to back it up, and overlook potential counterarguments.
It’s almost as if Johnny went to school to learn how to do this stuff.
Where, oh where are those free trade fundamentalist economists who once vigorously opposed tariffs? Hello? Hello? I can’t hear you!!!
JohnH
January 21, 2024 at 2:01 pm
Where, oh where are those free trade fundamentalist economists who once vigorously opposed tariffs? Hello? Hello? I can’t hear you!!!
I guess Frankel is some sort of socialist economist as he has clearly opposed tariffs. But Jonny boy goes out of his way to attack Frankel. Even so far as denying EVs are cars. Yea – Jonny boy is that stupid.
“if these attack dogs could be incensed by tariffs on washing machines (washing machines?!?)”
There was a discussion of how the Whirlpool/Maytag merger and the Trump tariffs gave Whirlpool an enormous amount of monopoly power but yea it was way over little Jonny boy’s head. But one would think you’d be interested in competition in this market as your poor mommy could afford a washing machine. But if she had one – she might change your stinky diapers more often.
There was a discussion of washing machine tariffs…but a couple years later, silence on EV tariffs, which have a much greater impact. It’s as if a liberal economist handler flipped a switch, and what had been anathema (tariffs) became the new fad.
So much for the seriosity of economists “deeply held” convictions…
Gee – JohnH’s dishonest attacks on Dr. Frankel get called out by our host. Now I went back and read Jonny boy’s 3 comments to Dr. Frankel’s post and maybe Jonny boy did not recall this as it is clear from Jonny boy’s comments that he did not understand this post either.
Johnny is engaging in two rhetorical tricks here – the “ad homenim” and the “staw man”. In fact, much of Johnny’s approach to argumentation is just repeated use of rhetorical tricks, often referred to as fallacies. These tricks aren’t all formal fallacies, which are errors in logic. Most are just dishonest forms of debate. So perhaps it’s useful to distinguish between logical errors and informal fallacies.
Here’s a website listing 16 informal fallacies – Johnny seems to prefer the informal ones – chosen at random from tons of such lists on the internet:
https://blog.hubspot.com/marketing/common-logical-fallacies#formal-informal
Let’s see how many fallacy merit badges Johnny has collected –
1. The Straw Man Fallacy
This fallacy occurs when your opponent over-simplifies or misrepresents your argument (i.e., setting up a “straw man”) to make it easier to attack or refute.
Johnny has engaged in a stawman here, and does so endlessly, most often by dishonestly claiming his opponent represents a point of view – neoconservatism, for instance – or an interest group – corporations, for instance.
3. The Appeal to Authority Fallacy
Just because someone in a position of power believes something to be true, doesn’t make it true.
Johnny’s links to anyone who seems to agree with his view, often misrepresenting the “authority” he’s appealing to, as if a link is all that’s required to prove his point. Oh, and enough with Jeffery Sach as an “authority” on international relations, much less morality. Sachs is an economist.
4. The False Dilemma Fallacy
This common fallacy misleads by presenting complex issues in terms of two inherently opposed sides…
This fallacy is particularly problematic because it can lend false credence to extreme stances…
U.S. BAD!!! Russia GOOD!!!
5. The Hasty Generalization Fallacy
This fallacy occurs when someone draws expansive conclusions based on inadequate or insufficient evidence. In other words, they jump to conclusions about the validity of a proposition with some — but not enough — evidence to back it up, and overlook potential counterarguments.
This is one of Johnny’s go-to movesz as when he claims wage growth in the U.S. is slow or that Ukraine must negotiate an end to war NOW, NOW, NOW!!
8. The Anecdotal Evidence Fallacy
In place of logical evidence, this fallacy substitutes examples from someone’s personal experience.
Arguments that rely heavily on anecdotal evidence tend to overlook the fact that one (possibly isolated) example can’t stand alone as definitive proof of a greater premise.
Whenever Johnny offers a what-about-ism as a refutation, he’s indulging in anecdote as a rebuttal to evidence.
9. The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy
This fallacy gets its colorful name from an anecdote about a Texan who fires his gun at a barn wall, and then proceeds to paint a target around the closest cluster of bullet holes. He then points at the bullet-riddled target as evidence of his expert marksmanship.
Speakers who rely on the Texas sharpshooter fallacy tend to cherry-pick data clusters based on a predetermined conclusion.
Instead of letting a full spectrum of evidence lead them to a logical conclusion, they find patterns and correlations in support of their goals, and ignore evidence that contradicts them or suggests the clusters weren’t actually statistically significant.
Wage gains have been weak. ‘Nuff said.
11. The Burden of Proof Fallacy
If a person claims that X is true, it is their responsibility to provide evidence in support of that assertion. It is invalid to claim that X is true until someone else can prove that X is not true.
Johnny makes a claim. His claim is contradicted. He insists the other guy has the burden of proof. A classic.
12. The Personal Incredulity Fallacy
If you have difficulty understanding how or why something is true, that doesn’t automatically mean the thing in question is false. A personal or collective lack of understanding isn’t enough to render a claim invalid.
Actually, Johnny mostly does the inverse of this one. Johnny puts forward his own belief as evidence – the personal credulity fallacy. Score this one as you will.
14. The Ad Hominem Fallacy
An ad hominem fallacy occurs when you attack someone personally rather than using logic to refute their argument.
Neocon. Servant to corporate interests. Affiliated with finance. Eagerness for China to fail. Another go-to for Johnny.
15. The Tu Quoque Fallacy
The tu quoque fallacy (Latin for “you also”) is an invalid attempt to discredit an opponent by answering criticism with criticism — but never actually presenting a counterargument to the original disputed claim.
This is in fact a cousin of the ad honinem, and is an effort to change the subject. Yeah, he does this one.
16. The Fallacy Fallacy
Here’s something vital to keep in mind when sniffing out fallacies: just because someone’s argument relies on a fallacy doesn’t necessarily mean that their claim is inherently untrue.
This is sad, but true. U.S. workers could use a bigger slice of the pie. Monopsony is a problem. The U.S. has made some terrible foreign policy decisions and has had some dispicable allies. All true. Johnny pretends he”s the only person here to notice, and he seems only to care when it serves to further Russian interests. It would be lovely to discuss any of these issues honestly, but Johnny won’t allow honest discussion.
So 9, maybe 10 out of the first 15. Johnny, there’s still room for improvement!
To my mind, the sadest is number 16. If only Johnny – and the increasingly scarce other members of the troll choir – would stop with the dishonest claptrap, there’d be room for real discussion. But chances are, real discussion is what they mean to prevent.
Nice list and accurate. It is just a shame to waste time and energy on these dishonest people.
You got it – I’ve grown bored with my internet stalker who clearly is mentally retarded. And yet Jonny boy is still chirping trash. YAWN!
This is one of the best takedowns I’ve ever read. Congratulations on a job excellently well done!
The euphoria of early adopters has begun to wane a bit for a variety of reasons. This is a link to an unemotional article about the situation:
https://www.businessinsider.com/electric-car-ev-sales-prices-problem-transportation-2024-1?op=1
the world is going to EV. it is inevitable. you can deny, kick and scream…or accept the inevitable and work with the change. your choice. but the days of ICE as the primary vehicle are very numbered. the EV is the car of the next 50 years. put that in stone.
Baffling, you may be correct that in 50 years EVs will be the dominant vehicles. The article from Business Insider simply pointed out the hurdles before that “eventuality”. An inexpensive, light-weight, high-density storage battery would be the game changer. It is argued that batteries are more efficient in delivering power than gasoline. This is correct in theory. However, the reality is that comparable EVs weigh considerably more in total than an ICEV while delivering considerably less range at present. The current narrative is that EVs are the perfect urban vehicle because most people drive less than 50 miles per day so charging is not a problem. The reality is that urban apartment dwellers and those without garages face the daunting task of locating a public charger and then they may be inoperative or in the 45-minute charging mode for another vehicle.
As the article pointed out, consumer resistance to EVs is higher once the subsidies/tax breaks are eliminated. Yet, without the much higher price points, many EVs manufacturers will lose significant amounts on each vehicle produced. The 2030 government goals are completely unrealistic and even the 2050 goals may be quite a stretch.
No one is denying or kicking or screaming about EVs. People make purchase choices based on a variety of factors and currently, for most people, the value equation (cost and convenience) is not there yet. Here is some good information about the cost of home charger installations.
https://www.bobvila.com/articles/cost-to-install-ev-charger-at-home/
Another interesting issue is that, at present, the states that are pushing EVs tend to have higher kWh rates than those that don’t have a specific agenda. This is most pronounced in California. Of course, California has artificially inflated the cost of gasoline as well.
https://www.cnet.com/home/energy-and-utilities/electricity-rates-by-state/
The pattern of electricity rates does not align well with gasoline prices except for California. Therefore, people may be more reluctant to purchase an EV in low priced gasoline/high priced electricity states.
https://www.gasbuddy.com/usa
Hey Brucie – if you want that hot date with JohnH, the two of you should get on the same page with this issue. Sure Jonny boy overstates the case for Chinese production of EVs but your snide disdain misses the fact that global EV sales were 13.6 million vehicles in 2023. Oh what – your gurus at Faux News forgot to tell you that?
pgl, thanks for your expected reply. Just like global warming, global sales don’t mean much for the various regions. China certainly has been the leader in EV production and sales due to the command nature of its economy. That doesn’t mean that same pattern will follow exactly in the US or elsewhere.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/19/business/ford-trimming-ev-pickup-production/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/17/business/gm-delaying-ev-truck-second-plant/index.html
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-joins-gm-ford-slowing-ev-factory-ramp-demand-fears-spread-2023-10-19/
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23939076/norway-electric-vehicle-cars-evs-tesla-oslo
Oops, didn’t cite Fox News. Oh, well.
Oops, Bruce didn’t cite Fox News – but he did find an equally moronic article at Vox.
It is better for the environment if people walk, bike or eBike than if they drive an EV – well duh!
If people have a car they are less likely to take public transportation – well duh!
When you spend money to subsidize purchases of new vehicles you spend more on rich than poor people – well duh!
Fact is that incentivizing people to chose an EV rather than an ICE worked to the point where 7/8 new vehicle purchases are EVs – and it had substantial effects on reducing pollution and green house gases. Was it worth it – depend on how much money you have and how important the goal is. Did it have some minor negative effects – none that should have been a surprise to anybody with an IQ over 70.
No bruce, EV is the car of the next fifty years. Not in 50 years. Got a question for you. Have you opposed or presented resistance to a national rollout of EV chargers?
Exactly. There are all these but, but but from people who can’t get their heads out of their own butt.
Sure there are issues balancing the choice between ICE or EV favorable for one or the other depending on the person and their situation. However the developments in the EV space is pushing more and more consumers in the direction of EV or plug-in hybrid. As always, people with a “can’t do” attitude are pushed aside by those with a “can do” attitude finding solutions.
The main problem of cost/range is being solved with new battery compositions (such as the lithium/Iron/phosphate (yes the metal Iron)) that deliver more range, faster charging/discharging at lower weight and longer life. They are planning a plant for lithium/iron/phosphate car batteries in MS that should begin producing by 2026. Charging infrastructure is being developed for those who cannot charge at home. Plans for shifting to EVs are ambitious as they should be. Whether goals are attained accordingly or a few years later, the future is inevitable.
the biggest problem EV’s face is that we are designing EV as a direct replacement of ICE. it is absurd. dimensions, performance, etc are all dictated by the design and shape of the legacy ICE. you would get a significantly better performing vehicle if this were not the case. for instance, most ICE vehicles today are much too large. this creates safety issues for other vehicles, that then must be made larger to protect against those vehicles. a shift towards smaller vehicles would greatly benefit the EV. It can provide more usable space for the same size vehicle than an ICE can. not to mention that autonomous vehicles fit much better with the EV model than ICE models.
other than for political reasons, i really cannot fathom why some of these folks are so anti-EV. we had this debate a few years ago with Steven, when he and others continued to claim that ICE vehicles outperformed EV’s. only the fool would continue to promote that claim, but here we are, some of those fools are still on this site. people gripe that 300 mile range is not sufficient-foolish. and charging issues are self inflicted. a national rollout solves that problem. in addition, very few people need an immediate recharge of 300 mile range. that issue is very workable for a competent engineer supported by some reasonable policies. we have solutions today. we just have some lousy people throwing sand in the gears, keeping the country from moving forward.
“The sudden slowdown in electric car sales is a symptom of a much uglier problem.”
Admit it – Brucie Boy was high fiving all his MAGA hat buddies so much that Brucie forgot to read the facts from Kevin Drum. Oh well – I hope you have fun at tonight’s KKK get together.
Oooo, did you have a problem with the information I provided… or only that I provided it?
The wsj very recently gave a summary of EV as well. It acknowledges that EV is the way of the future. The wsj says that bruce.
You present LIES. So calling your BS information is just stupid
For the US with its limited charging infrastructure, plug-in hybrids are the most sensible choice. The average commute is under 40 miles so most people can drive 80-90% on the much cheeper and less polluting EV mode, but always have the gas engine as a backup and for long trips. The latest Prius plug-in look like an excellent entry into that market.
Chevrolet made another massive mistake when they gave up on their plug-in hybrid the Volt (with 65 mile battery and a turbo charged generator to make all the electricity you needed to keep driving after the battery was flat). They had the perfect transition vehicle with a huge popularity among those who had one. However, they decided to cancel it and go all out with the Bolt (a regular small EV) instead, but now that will be discontinuing too.
The biggest problem is that dealers hate EVs because they don’t need much repair or maintenance – so they don’t make much money on them. That is why you never see advertisement for them, and sales people actively try to talk out out of an EV purchase.
China has an $11K small EV that is selling extremely well domestically. They are planning to build that in Mexico so they can sell in US without tariffs. It will be interesting to see what US car makers will do about that.
Did you catch who is Bruce Hall’s EV guru? Bob Vila? You can’t make this stuff up. Next up for Brucie boy – Oprah Winfrey giving economic advice. And of course Martha Stewart telling us which stocks to buy!
Why did Menzie have to use the term “flat”? Got a flat tire on the car today, POS Goodyear tires got on the cheap from the dealership. Yeah they were cheap but they also performed like cheap. 3 patches inside of a year and a basic blowout (would have been super bad on the interstate) just barely over 1 year. Got two new Continental tires that with labor cost me $429. I think I can live with that if I worry less about blowouts at 70 mph on the interstate.
Advice and moral of the story. Don’t let a Toyota dealership talk you into crap tires on a service visit and don’t buy POS Goodyear tires.
“I wonder whether this reflects that a large segment of potential EV buyers have decided against buying Teslas so long as Elmo is in charge. The Venn Diagram of potential EV buyers and allegedly “woke” people Elmo constantly bashes has a pretty significant overlap.”
E-6 gets the award for funniest comment!
If Biden really wants to reach his EV goals, he needs to remove the tariffs on Chinese EVs. The US EV manufacturers have concentrated on high margin SUVs and toys for the rich. What the market really needs are low cost commuter EVs for everyone else and it seems only the Chinese have any interest or expertise in filling that segment. Biden’s tariffs are preventing that.
This is similar to the 1970s when US manufacturers concentrated on high margin V8 road hogs when regular people really wanted low cost Japanese imports.
“If Biden really wants to reach his EV goals, he needs to remove the tariffs on Chinese EVs.”
I agree! A lot of economists would agree. But wait, wait – JohnH just declared we are all for these tariffs and we know Jonny boy always tells the truth – right?
I am not sure how much difference it makes whether it’s a Chinese $11,000 EV without tariffs or $14,500 with tariffs, both are highly competitive with what is currently offered in the US. Right now neither is for sale in the US, but the Chinese are planning to build a plant in Mexico to get around the tariff issue. The Chinese don’t have the capacity to expand to US at the same time they are getting into Europe. But you are absolutely right that the US car industry is in for a rude awakening.
Many of China’s EV models are small, light, inexpensive and efficient as a means of personal transportation. A very different car culture than the U.S. We could use a lesson.
Aptera, anyone?
I’ve been looking at Aptera as my old Chevy Spark slowly dies (no maintenance from Chevrolet!) Keeping those solar panels clean makes it relatively high user maintenance, but, assuming the Car and Driver-tested average 13% gap between actual and tested range, a range of 850 or so miles is staggeringly impressive. Of course, driving from the Bay Area to Seattle involves a lot of mountains…
Agree the Aptera is fantastic and will become the basis for a great new solar powered commuter vehicle.
Currently for sale is the Toyota Prius Prime hybrid with a solar panel roof that can add about 4 miles of driving if parked in the sun during work hours. Not an insignificant addition to the 39 mile battery. If they added another panel like that on the roof and one more on the front hood, that would become 12 miles of solar driving. That would be pretty good for the first generation of solar assist hybrid vehicles.
Don’t disagree. But for safety reasons you got to get those big suvs off the roads if you want more small vehicles. Works in Europe.
Love to.
By the way, China has announced “greater scrutiny” of new investment in electric vehicle production. Not clear whether this is an effort to placate the EU or concern over malinvestment.
I’m reading the Argonne report that Kevin Drum linked to since uber-trolls like JohnH and Bruce Hall never learned to read:
“Latest Monthly Sales Data
HEV Sales
In December 2023, 117,690 HEVs (31,825 cars and 85,865 LTs) were sold in the United States, up 70.3% from the sales in December 2022.
Toyota accounted for a 50.8% share of total HEV sales this month.
Plug-In Vehicle Sales
A total of 141,055 plug-in vehicles (100,928 BEVs and 40,127 PHEVs) were sold during December 2023 in the United States, up 42.4% from the sales in December 2022. PEVs captured 9.84% of total LDV sales this month.
Cumulatively, 1,402,371 PHEVs and BEVs have been sold in 2023. In total, 4,684,128 PHEVs and BEVs have been sold since 2010.”
Gee Brucie never told us that these sales have been rising so quicky. And Toyota captured most than half of the HEV market? Jonny told us the Chinese were the leaders – huh. But wait there’s more!
‘Electric Vehicle Energy Storage Capacity
According to Argonne’s analysis of publicly announced lithium-ion battery cell factories in North America, as of January 2024, manufacturers in the United States could supply around 10 million new light duty plug-in electric vehicles each year by 2030, assuming an average pack size of 80-100 kWh.’
And Jonny keeps telling us only the Chinese will be making battery cells. Gee – the good folks at Argonne must be so ignorant as they are contradicting our resident experts in Jonny and Brucie boy.
Good policy would promote the ability to add those batteries back into the grid when needed. Electricity demand rises when people come home from work. Wouldnt it be nice if those people could plug into the grid and provide reserve power at peak demand? Since they are only commuters, battery will have plenty of charge that was not used throughout the day. Problem solved. But you know who will raise an issue against, because it is a solution in favor of EV and renewables. The party of no.
It would indeed be a perfect solution to the evening peak problem and could also be useful for the morning peak. Because most people want the 400 mile range that is only used a few times a year on road trips, they end up with a massive excess of battery capacity. They can easily drive take off on regular work days with less than a full battery and still be able to lend power to the grid the first few hours of the evening after they come back.
EV owners would plug in as soon as they came home and lend some power to the grid, then they would fully load the battery during overnight hours, and give some of that back again during the peak morning hours. This would greatly help power companies as it would smooth out the 24 hour cycle. Greatly reduced rates could be offered for those who plugged their EV into a power company controlled plug. Win-win.
and i will add, the need for these long range batteries is not necessary. the solution, and it is being developed, is simply faster recharge times. That is actually going to be easier and more efficient than doubling battery capacity. we have parrots harping about the need to increase battery capacity, but that is simply an intentional distraction. if i can recharge a battery in 5 or 10 minutes, my need for long range is drastically diminished. that is a very solvable problem. and produces a smaller and lighter car that further increases the range of my vehicle. and better safety on the roads. the benefits of the electric vehicle makes you wonder what kind of idiot would be against such progress? all you got to do is think outside the box and be willing to adapt to a little change from before.
instead of insisting on going outside in the cold and climbing up the antenna tower to rotate and get better reception, why not just get cable tv? you know who you are.
Completely agree that the desire for a 400 mile range has come from the legacy of gasoline cars with that approximate number of miles on a full tank. When you are “gassing up” from a plug in the wall at home, you don’t need it. For the road trip it might be nice with a long range, but minimal inconvenience to only have 150-200 mile range if you have a good charging infrastructure and can charge up in 5-10 minutes.
There is no doubt that EVs will take over, that is why all the car companies now are building battery and EV factories. That is not a case of “if we build it they will come” its a case of “we better build it cause they are coming”.
And God gave us Trump
Story by Antonio Muñoz Molina
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/and-god-gave-us-trump/ar-BB1gZEva
In a deeply divided country, the upcoming elections are seen not as a contest between Democrats and Republicans, but as a battle between good and evil.
© Fran Pulido (EL PAÍS)
Donald Trump often reminds me of the monstrous creatures depicted in cheap science fiction and horror movies from the 1950s. They emerge mysteriously to conquer or destroy the world. The more they are provoked, the stronger they become, growing faster and towering over the heroes who foolishly attempt to subdue them. Like the giant Godzilla that decimated Japanese cities, these creatures withstand attacks, effortlessly swatting away fighter planes like insects. Unlike the vulnerable and sentimental King Kong, who was a product of colonial exoticism from 19th-century adventure novels, Godzilla is far more menacing. King Kong, lost and out of place in 20th-century New York, posed little threat and struggled to survive, much like other endangered species.
In the early years of cinema, the horror genre inherited its monsters from Gothic novels. Count Dracula, Frankenstein’s creature, the Werewolf and Mr. Hyde were all brought to life on the big screen. However, the 1950s introduced a new form of terror with the atomic bomb, and gave birth to modern monsters like Godzilla. Horror cinema visualizes the nightmares of a rationality driven to madness by the monstrous nature of reality. The transformation of humans into grotesque beings no longer comes from bloodsucking bites or chemical potions, but from the destructive power of nuclear radiation. Creatures born from devastation and destruction become nearly indestructible. However, most movies opt for comforting endings, maintaining the timeless fight between a hero and an evil, powerful beast that is ultimately defeated.
Unlike fiction, reality can defy verisimilitude. Commercial films invent misguided beings and impossible plots that become metaphors for their time and offer unsettling premonitions. Yet no fictional dystopia can match the chilling reality of news headlines and broadcasts. Today’s mega-billionaires (Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, etc.) resemble the all-powerful, misanthropic villains of Ian Fleming’s novels and early James Bond films. But compared to their modern-day incarnations, Fleming’s villains now seem endearing, much like Doctor Moriarty from the Sherlock Holmes novels. Not only are they technologically obsolescent, these fictional characters were bound by the rules of believability and coherence that literature must always obey.
No one could have predicted the rise of Donald Trump. He bears some resemblance to the Lex Luthor character with his distinctive yellow hairpiece, played by Gene Hackman in the 1978 Superman movie directed by Richard Donner. He also shares some traits with New York mafia bosses and wise guys, who themselves imitated the clothing and language of the fictional gangsters in films by Francis Ford Coppola and Martin Scorsese. Like a movie monster created by makeup and special effects experts, Trump seems immune to the weapons and increasingly aggressive attacks launched against him. At times, he deceives us by playing possum. We are duped into thinking that Trump lies dead in his grave, in a coffin that no vampire claw can pierce, or under the Artic ice, or at the bottom of the sea.
But that’s a trick that never fails to work. The film is suddenly shattered by a shocking event, causing fear to ripple through the movie theater. The fallen beast rises, more ferocious than ever; the radioactive dinosaur emerges from the ruins. Trump lost the 2020 elections, but his supporters claim it was a stolen victory. When he incited the assault on the Capitol Building, even his closest allies feared he had finally gone too far. Yet, his shameless, steadfast support for the rioters has only increased his popularity. Trump faces multiple trials for fraud, electoral fraud, sexual assault and tax crimes. Despite this, millions of evangelicals see him as a victim of persecution, comparing him to Jesus Christ in Pontius Pilate’s court.
Trump has consistently flaunted his sexual promiscuity, infidelities and divorces, along with his physical and verbal abuse of women. This behavior has been likened by evangelicals to that of King David, an adulterer who still served God and brought military glory to Israel. Trump is also compared to King Cyrus the Great, an idolater and sinner who, according to the Book of Isaiah, allowed the Hebrew people to return to their land from Babylonian captivity. Europeans often have trouble understanding Americans who are fixated on the Old Testament’s bloody religiosity and literal interpretations of the Book of Revelation. In this deeply divided country, the upcoming elections are seen not as a contest between Democrats and Republicans, but as a battle between good and evil, with profound consequences. A popular video among evangelicals features a booming voice proclaiming, “And God gave us Trump.” The terror and grotesqueness of this video surpasses the most chilling fantasies ever seen on the silver screen. The nightmares of reality have rendered fictional horror irrelevant. The daunting beast that cannot be defeated has returned in a new guise, proclaiming to be the Messiah.
When we think Bruce Hall cannot get dumber he exceeds all expectations. This MORON says climate change is not a global issue? Oh wait – car production is not a global markets? Excuse me – the CEOs of GM and Ford would fall on the floor laughing at your suggestion. As would the CEO’s of BMW, Toyota, and a lot of other car multinationals. Oh wait – someone please little Brucie boy what multinational means.
OK Brucie thinks he scores points because GM will start EV production next year not this year. Seriously Brucie? And yea – I read that Vox article on Norway but I doubt you did. The idea was that they bike more and not drive cars as much – not that they drive gas guzzlers like you do.
Yea Brucie is working really hard to win that 2024 troll of the year award. Keep them coming little Brucie boy. We are cheering for you!
More from Kevin Drum:
Here is Trump’s track record on fentanyl
https://jabberwocking.com/here-is-trumps-track-record-on-fentanyl/
Take a read as Trump was all tough talk but no action so Fentanyl use doubled during his Administration. But never fear – Kelly Anne Conway has called Bruce Hall to claim this was all Biden’s fault. That is what Brucie boy do.
Well, I guess the EV craze had to die sometime. The best investment is a Ford Falcon with a supercharged V8 and a leather outfit. Tear down the windmills, tear down the solar panels–unless they’re in Texas where you’ll get shot by landowners who are making big money of that left-wing voodoo tech. The Hubbert Peak shall return! It is our destiny!
In case you missed it, EV IS STILL GROWING. It did not die. Exponential growth cannot be maintained forever. It must reset on occasion. That does not mean that growth has stopped.
Texas renewables are a republican achievement.
We should call Kevin Drum butter as he is on a roll:
American workers make more than they did in 1969
https://jabberwocking.com/american-workers-make-more-than-they-did-in-1969/
Over longer periods CPI is badly off. Without diving into a bunch of niggling details, the best bet for long periods that go back far into the past is PCE inflation. Here’s what blue-collar earnings look like:
{must see graph}
Either way, blue-collar workers lost a lot of ground in the Reagan-Bush years. But they’ve recovered from that, and if you calculate inflation correctly blue collar wages are up 27% since 1969. That’s still no great shakes, but it’s way different from “lower than 1969.”
Kevin notes he used BLS for CPI and those Biden Socialists for PCE.
Benjamin Gompertz understood in 1825 (and probably before) why growth slows. A slow start, acceleration and then another period of slowing is standard sigmoid growth. It explains all kinds of growth under limits, including farm production, population, and product sales.
And, before anyone says anything that will make them seem foolish, if a limiting factor – the number of charging stations, for instance – is removed or adjusted to allow faster growth, the sigmoid pattern can restart.
While we’re at it, keep in mind that sigmoid growth is around an underlying trend. If the trend is flat, then the late phase is decline. If the trend is upward, the late phase may include a period of decline, but decline needn’t persist. Anyone who claims they can look at short-term variations is EV sales and identify the longer-term underlying trend is either not the sharpest tack in the box or lying.
Along with climate-change deniers, we have for years been treated to glib suggestions from climate-change cheerleaders that a warmer climate will allow more food production- so no problem That was always nonsense, but as is evident from some comments here, there is an overwhelming urge for some to downplay the harm from climate change and to deride any effort to reduce fossil fuel consumption.
So anyhow, the problems of performing working in the hotter and more humid conditions forecast for coming decades has been recognized for some time. Parts of the U.S. South and parts of Mexico may well suffer big losses in output, especially because of rising humidity. Here is an effort to quantify the problem on a global basis:
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.17142
The nugget is this:
“The mean of 2018–2020 USDA/ERS estimates of people working in agriculture globally is 856.7 million (Fuglie, Jelliffe, and Morgan, date accessed 27/02/2023). With the recent past thermal environment, 35% of the agricultural workforce (302 million workers) was in locations where the growing season average PWC (physical work capacity) was 0.80 of full capacity or less (Table 2). With the end-century/SSP5-8.5 thermal environment, the number of workers affected by those conditions increases to 75% and workers in environments with a growing-season average PWC of 0.60 or less increases from zero to 45%.”
So most of the world’s farm workers will face conditions that will reduce their ability to do physical work, and 45% will have their effective capacity cut by more than a third. Most of these workers are in poorer countries, where farm productivity is low already. Buying food imports to replace lost domestic production will be problematic, since working to produce exports to payfor imports will be made difficult by heat and humidity.
Starvation and emigration are two likely results. So pleased that our climate-change apologists were able to string out their climate lie for a while longer
Here’s something that will undoubtedly alter the growth rate around the end of the decade:
https://electrek.co/2024/01/11/toyota-solid-state-ev-battery-plans-750-mi-range/
So the next decade will bring us batteries that can go over 300,000 miles without losing range. Solid state batteries with 10 min charging times and 750 miles range. Lithium/iron/phosphate batteries reducing cost 40%.
Sure looks good to me.
EVs would cost less than comparable ICE vehicles. They would last twice as long. Instead of filling your gas tank every 15 days you would stop at the fast charger, have a cup of coffee, and fill the battery, once a month.
Sure looks good to me.
And Jonny boy tried to tell us Toyota was never going to be a player in the EV market. I bet Jonny boy advised GM over 50 years ago to ignore the Japanese competition.
Was I the last to hear about DeSantis this late afternoon?? I can predict the next headline “DeSantis Offers Full-throat BJ in Public to Donald Trump at Mar-A-Lago. Wife Says She Will Watch Livestream on Amazon Prime From Home While Burning Public Library Books”.
Hey, Moses, you recently linked to this:
https://digbysblog.net/2024/01/19/greedflation/
And yes, there is no question the businesses grabbed all the money they could, leading to an extra increment of inflation above that which is attributable to compensation gains and other input costs.
Here’s the basic picture:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1erM8
I’ve provided national income, labor compensation, corporate profits and everything else (national income minus labor compensation and corporate profits). These are the big categories involved in the Inflation discussion. Everything else, hereinafter referred to as “other”, includes the effects of non-labor supply shocks.
We have talked about the supply shock to input costs due to Covid, but sometimes it gets left out. Remember, inflation took off because of that supply shock. Everything else was a result of and sometimes a response to that supply shock.
Notice the relative size of each of the GDI components. Profits are the smallest category. So while the gain to profits was large in percentage terms during the early Covid recovery, it is not large in its contribution to changed to national income. What doesn’t swing nominal national income isn’t likely to swing inflation much. Labor compensation amounted to 53.5% of GDI in 2002. Profits were 11.6% of GDI. The “other” category was over three times larger than profits, accounting for 37.3% of GDI.
“Other” rose 14.2% in 2022 over 2021 and 9.7% in 2021 over 2020. Profits rose 8.9% in 2022, after a big rebound in 2021, up over 30%. Labor compensation rose 7.1% in 2022 over 2021, but labor compensation is nearly 5 times larger than profits.
We don’t have the full-year numbers for 2023 yet, but 2022 was the big year for inflation. Happy to do the math again when we have 2023 data, but the “Blame Biden” crowd, which includes Johnny, insist on looking at 2022, so I’ve provided the data.
Labor, though it struggles to keep its fair share of what it produces, necessarily accounts for a large share of changes to national income. Otherwise, the economy would grind to a halt. “Other” input costs account for the next largest share. In a disinflationary economy, “other” loses ground to labor compensation and profits, but when there is a negative supply shock, “other” input costs rise sharply.
In percentage terms, profits will often swing more than other components, because profits are the smallest component and are a residual, after everything else is paid. In terms of levels, though, profits don’t usually make the biggest contribution to swings in national income, so can’t make the biggest contribution to inflation. It can happen in isolated quarters, and there has been a long-term shift toward profits taking a bigger share of national income, but the big story behind cyclical swings in nominal income and in inflation is much more likely to be costs than profits.
What capital has done is to take a larger share of REAL income over time. And that is really, really bad. That is largely separate from the issue of what is driving inflation. “Greedflation” is a real thing, but outside of isolated quarters, it is a sideshow in the inflation story. The longer term story is class warfare. The short term story is Covid shock.
Johnny will probably offer his usual outrage melodrama, insist that I’m a shill for capitalist interests and all that, but his goal is political. Truth doesn’t matter to him. These are the numbers. Feel free to check ’em.
@ Macroduck
I think I am much closer to your side of the issue, or your “take” on the issue than Johnnie’s. But I also think it’s very very hard to quantify what proportion of inflation is supply shortage created and what proportion is greedflation.
I’m just trying to keep reading and keep learning.
If you are wondering about the impact on shipping costs in light of those Houthi attacks, Kevin Drum offers some information:
Raw data: The cost of ocean freight shipping
https://jabberwocking.com/raw-data-the-cost-of-ocean-freight-shipping/
A cool graph showing how the cost of batteries used to be 50% of a large EV total cost and it will slide down to 20% by 2030. Given that every other component of an EV drivetrain is less costly than for an ICE it is likely that we soon will see (then surpass) cost parity.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/797638/battery-share-of-large-electric-vehicle-cost/
Every new technology face 3 user groups:
1. Trailblazers, willing to pay more – for the undeniable product advantages – or because they think its cool (10%).
2. Cautious foot draggers needing a fair amount of convincing to “risk” some of that fancy new stuff (80%).
3. Stuck in he mud losers, who will always find some reason to continue rejecting the new – way past where it is logic (10%).
The second group is beginning to arrive in the EV market and what many of them need is price parity for purchasing.
More on the EV battery market and expected developments.
https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-hit-record-low-of-139-kwh/
Figure 1 is an interesting chart showing the decline in prices from 2013 to 2023. I bet if CoRev were still allowed to comment, he would be citing the data from a decade ago as if it were current.
Interesting piece about auto insurers refusing to insure EVs in China.
Not really a surprise. For example, replacing a Kia battery costs Can $60,000, and they are surprisingly easy to damage as total losses from minor incidents.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dr3mFzh0KSk
http://www.xinhuanet.com/auto/20240123/f6d8f16a2b2341b18b4351da88f8ca51/c.html
A Motormouth youtube? You do come up with the dumbest sources.
You 2nd link is in Chinese. But it does translate the story and oh brother. A couple of personal tales and not some in depth analysis. I guess this sloppy research is just your ticket for an appearance on Fox and Friends.
If you don’t have data you can always cite some wild eye dumb-ass tale from the internet. It works on Fox.
Somehow I doubt anybody but the poster would be impressed here at this website – – – oh wait maybe there will be one or two readers here who think a profound insight was revealed by this cherry-picked story from the dark corners of the internet tubes.
Is it really that hard to dig out insurance premiums for similar EV and ICE vehicles here in the US? – or did he do it but couldn’t find support for his narrative?