Average wage for production and nonsupervisory workers in total private and leisure and hospitality services, and implied by median wage growth, all up relative to 2019M12, just before the pandemic. [update and ECI through Q3]
FIgure 1: Chained CPI deflated real wage for total private (blue), leisure and hospitality (tan) and level implied by median wage growth overall (green square), and ECI all private workers (light blue), all in logs, 2019M12=0. ECI interpolated quadratic fit to monthly. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via FRED, and Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker, NBER, and author’s calculations [updated 1/17 to include ECI]
Since the graph is on a log scale, one can see growth rate of real median wages from CPS data at about same rate as that for leisure and hospitality, and faster than that for all private sector production & nonsupervisory workers.
Interesting – I would note that in regards to comments on a pervious post that BLS Leisure and Hospitality includes Accommodation and Food Services subsector: https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag70.htm – thanks
If this is related to my comments, on pay at McDonald’s etc. all I can say is sometimes I believe what Menzie labels “anecdotal evidence” is a little more valid than Menzie gives it sometimes. And that’s not to say that I don’t respect Menzie for always focusing on the hard numbers, and that doing that is the correct way MOST of the time, but sometimes anecdotal tells you something that in fact the “data” is causing misperceptions on. That’s all I’m gonna say about it.
I see the people with these jobs going through grocery check out $2 overdrawn on their card for the bill and telling the cashier to put items back on the shelves, and I’m just gonna say it, when I see that with my own eyes, Menzie’s / BLS data saying these people have rosy lives after Covid doesn’t mean jackshit to me, ok??
Moses Herzog: CPI weights are for people at the 70th percentile of income, I believe. I suspect the CPI with weights associated with say 25th percentile have shown higher increases. There is variation in avg hourly earnings for leisure and hospitality around mean (and that’s what we’re plotting, the sample mean). Hence, I would say there are indisputably people who are doing worse off than indicated by mean wage adjusted by CPI, or wage implied by median wage growth, adjusted by CPI.
I’m drinking now. Hey Menzie, what’s the “motormouth” of Keyboard?? It just got to me emotionally is all, I bet you, or your wife saw it sometimes when you went grocery shopping, Register workers put it back on the shelves when they checked out. I even saw the register lady “quietly” cover the bill and let them through the line ($5 or something) That touched me. Hey Menzie, they’re not all MAGA are they?? haha
It really really “burned” me, watching Iowans vote for trump this week, I’m just so glad my Dad died in 2012 and didn’t SEE it Menzie. You’re old enough to get my meaning Brother,
I’m drinking now—take that for what you will Menzie. Your blog reply hits me DEEPLY, and means a lot to me on a personal level. And not just because you replied, but the WAY you replied.
I think you go shopping, maybe your wife shops more, but I guess you go shopping. We see those people short on the Wal Mart bill yes??? And I saw other shoppers in the line “cover” their bill, paid that last $5–$10 on the groceries, I’ve seen the REGISTER LADY cover that (more than once). They are great Americans. Looking out for their neighbors, but I also saw sad faces asking the clerk to put the item back. It really cuts you deep Menzie. I think you feel that cut also, and I’m guessing it’s PART of why you chose to get a PhD in Economics. You remember the struggle of your father (a very very sharp man) “struggling” “Battling”. My Dad had a Master’s degree in education, struggling in his latter years. We remember them. How they never showed that, or tried not to show us that struggle.
Hey Menzie, did in the past you EVER saw Taiwan people do something make you “felt shame”. I know you are as American as they get Menzie, and very American, but you get my meaning, also you feel connection to Taiwan, when they did something bad, you felt it DEEP. Maybe you felt that to northeast USA Washington. I don’t know Menzie. I can’t believe Iowans voted for donald trump this week Menzie, It kills me man, it really kills me. I EXPECT MORE from Iowans Menzie.