“Assessing Methods to Integrate the Physical Risks and Transition Risks and Opportunities of Climate Change into the President’s Macroeconomic Forecast”

CEA and OMB report out today.

From CEA Blog introducing the report:

The Federal Government has broad exposure to the physical risks of climate change and the transition risks associated with the global shift away from carbon-intensive energy sources. At the same time, the shift to clean energy provides a generational opportunity to create new sources of economic growth. These transitional opportunities and challenges affect future output growth and other economic outcomes and are therefore relevant to the President’s Budget. Building on nearly three years of work completed under Section 6(a) of Executive Order 14030 on Climate-Related Financial Risk, this paper presents a step-by-step methodology for quantifying these risks and opportunities into a macroeconomic forecasting framework with the goal of more accurately projecting near-term macroeconomic outcomes relevant to the President’s Budget. For each step, we assess available tools, methodological tradeoffs, and directions for further research based on the current literature.

4 thoughts on ““Assessing Methods to Integrate the Physical Risks and Transition Risks and Opportunities of Climate Change into the President’s Macroeconomic Forecast”

  1. James

    Name me one Republican political leader that is willing to admit to their constituents that there are economic and physical risks associated with climate change. No – there is not a single one (there are a few that will admit climate change is real in private.) The Republicans are busy working against their constituents and civilization’s best interests by trying to pass the “Hands Off Our Home Appliances Act” and other dingbat nonsense (https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/lengthy-list-gop-reps-eye-work-home-appliances-rcna147538).
    When does the media stop portraying the GOP as if they are an entertaining clown show and start revealing them as chaos agents hellbent on bringing down civilization – the GOP can even pass a budget bill of any kind without getting rid of their Speaker. And their own members say that many in the GOP are on the payroll of criminal chaos agent Putin – https://newrepublic.com/article/180630/russia-corruption-network-europe-buying-politicians-america

    1. Macroduck

      “Operatives of Russia’s security services meet with politicians, journalists, activists, and other influencers and pay them to carry out certain tasks.

      “The idea is to push narratives and policies that help Russia but to mask them behind a local face.”

      Hmmmm…Who do we know who fits this description? Serves Putin’s interests – check. Presents himself as something he’s not- check. Before anyone gets the wrong idea, I don’t mean Trump, though he clearly fits. Where’s Putin’s pet troll these days?

      While we’re at it, we might rub your two points together, James. Putin has no interest in reducing fossil fuel use. Republicans don’t want to reduce fossil fuel use. Heck, any commonality is worth exploiting, once you’ve turned them.

  2. Macroduck

    So pleased to see the authors address on of my pet notions:

    “Climate change poses significant risks to physical capital, and changes to physical capital will, in turn, affect capital service flows into GDP. Key channels include capital destruction, financing costs and access to insurance, and lower capital productivity (perhaps through higher than expected depreciation or retirement). Each of these channels will influence investment and capital accumulation rates.”

    Physical effects involve tipping points. Financial effects do, too. We need to build greater resilience into the financial system.

  3. pgl

    Somewhat related:

    Tim Scott to introduce measure to overturn controversial SEC climate rule


    Senate Banking Committee Ranking Member Tim Scott will introduce a measure in the upper chamber on Wednesday attempting to overturn a controversial Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) climate rule that has drawn outrage from Republicans – and even some Democrats – FOX Business has learned. The rule, adopted last month by the SEC, requires public companies to “enhance and standardize climate-related disclosures” in an effort to inform investors “about the financial effects of climate-related risks on a registrant’s operations and how it manages those risks,” according to the SEC.

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